Qualifying offers

No offense my guy I think there zero chance they offer him a QO. If for some bizarre reason they do, he will run to accept it

Definitely not for Pivetta, and for O'Neill he probably accepts and he just doesn't fit into the team. We do need a righty outfielder if Rob retires but we could easily find one on the FA market who might not be as good, but would be less expensive so we can spend on our actual need of pitching.

I wonder if Boras plays it a bit more conservative this winter with clients who aren't the absolute top of the market?

I think both are worth the gamble. I would be happy to have both of them on the team, or get the picks, though I acknowledge the counter-arguments.

TON and his 27 HRs and Fenway swing and good D have a role to play, as there is no RHH on the horizon, and I don't expect that much offensively from Story.
Nor do I expect Anthony to come up and hit in 2025 the way we expect him to hit eventually.
(The career arc of Bogaerts is more natural: it was impressive that he could hit 240.297.362.660 at age 21, but it would have been better if they had not needed him until later. Pedroia spent a full year in AAA at 22, after a fine year at AA-AAA at 21. Betts is a freak.)
Keeping O'Neill would be good if they trade Abreu or less likely Rafaela.
Getting the pick would be very good.

If they lose Pivetta they need at least a pitcher who can give them 5.5 innings a start. I have zero confidence they will be able to find one, our that he would outperform Pivetta, or accept less than a three-year contract. I am in favor of keeping Criswell and Priester and Fitts and Dobbins at the #6 and 7 and 8 positions or lower.
Getting that pick would be good. But do you also lose a pick to replace him?

With Sale and Kenley coming off the books and zero reason not to spend up to and beyond the tax threshold, I don't think having these two accept a QO would prevent them from signing someone. It might make it easier for them to make a trade or two.

Some may disagree that the Sox are willing to go over the threshold in 2025; I think it makes sense to be open to that, in the Winter or in August.

One-year contracts are good.

The comp picks based on last year's draft would be around #74/$1 million slot

The risk of ending up with 40 mil of 2025 payroll on guys that maintain status quo vs transforming the roster for the better is to high a risk for me. I voted for neither.

I have no problem paying either one of these guys $20M on a one-year deal, so I voted to give QOs to both. I'm with Theo Epstein, who said there's no such thing as a bad one-year contract.

They both provide skill sets that the Red Sox desperately need more of, not less. NP is durable, providing innings and an average-ish ability to suppress scoring. TON is a RH bat with pop.

My thinking is also driven by my hope that the Red Sox will exceed the first LTT of $241M in 2025. They have to stay under $280M to avoid the draft pick penalties.

If both players accept QOs, the RS will have ~$60M in AAV in just three players (Giolito, at $19.25M) coming off the books after '25, making it easier for them to get below the LTT for 2026, if they want to do that.

Carmen said exactly what I was trying to say.

I'd offer the QO to O'Neill but not Pivetta.

The way I see it, they're more likely than not going to lose O'Neill anyways so they'd get a draft pick, but if he accepted, I think for 1 year if they're willing to spend, they can live with it.

They do need a RH bat for a year and the odds of them finding one better on the open market is slim. Odds are they'll have to look anyways as he'll wind up elsewhere, but at least they'll get the pick for him.

With Pivetta, I would be worried he'd take the QO.

Pivetta is what he is. I'm tired of hoping that he is more consistent with his A game. He's never going to be the ace or #2 guy I thought he could be, that he looks like for stretches.

He will always have an ERA around 4.5 or thereabouts. He never keeps his ERA under 4.

By keeping him, all they would be doing is bringing back the same rotation that seemed short originally as they'd have Houck, Crawford, Bello, Pivetta, and Giolito. That's likely four guys out of five who will have average-ish league ERAs or worse.

They need to do better than that. This is their chance to get a better pitcher than Pivetta. I'd like to see them use free agency to do that. I think it's doable if they're willing to spend.

I do like Pivetta and I think his biggest asset is kind of a detriment to what could be his biggest strength.

Pivetta takes the ball and eats innings, usually with an ERA about a quarter of a run worse than average, kind of like Tim Wakefield used to, although Wakefield did have some seasons where he kept his ERA low, like 2002 and of course 1995.

But the thing is unlike Wakefield, Pivetta, I think, could be a pretty damn good high leverage reliever, even a closer, but his durability has value so he can't pitch in the role I think might suit him best. At this point I'd let another team try to solve that riddle. The Red Sox need to upgrade that spot with somebody they could put ahead of Houck or behind Houck and ahead of Bello or Crawford.

I would QO Pivetta if I was not going to make every attempt this yr to land a top of rotation arm... and I mean a Dombrowski attempt where you go get the one you want (Snell or Fried likely), and you land him. I would avoid $21M on Pivetta in that scenario because I think he is a risk to accept it, and I would want that money to go into the huge AAV the new guy would get.

If the Sox are planning to wait for a big FA signing until at least 2026 when they feel more of their core is in place, I would QO Pivetta consistent with those commenting on the benefit of 1 yr deals.

For O'Neill -- if I thought he was likely to give 450+ ABs, I would QO. If I thought the chance of <300 ABs was high, I would not. They know the health report. But I don't see them finding a replacement for TON. So if he is likely to play -- 1 yr is ok if he accepts.

would be an easier decision on TON knowing if Masa was on the team or not. Same with Refs.
if both were not back, I like Abreau a lot, and have no problem with an OF of Duran-LF. Cedanne-CF. Abreau/Anthony-RF.
TON at DH/PH and Abreau eventually that 4th OF, once Anthony is comfortable (June?)
Could TON handle a 1B mitt?

I like Pivetaa on the staff, even in a relief role. a QO would be high, but like Theo said, there is no bad 1 year deal. is it possible he is next seasons closer?

My thought with Pivetta is that, in spite of his limitations, you can never have enough pitching and $20 million is reasonable for what he provides, particularly with the payroll flexibility we'll have. Also couches against the high likelihood that we just don't have the juice to attract the top FA arms.