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Post by incandenza on Oct 10, 2024 12:42:55 GMT -5
mlbtraderumors didn't even mention Pivetta as a possible QO candidate, interestingly:
I personally would not rather have Severino on a 1/21 contract than Pivetta...
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Post by julyanmorley on Oct 10, 2024 13:03:41 GMT -5
i feel like i'm taking crazy pills. i think it's basically a lock pivetta gets the QO and if he doesn't I assume there is a bad medical file. it is just a free draft pick. but i see a lot of people acting like it's a lock he doesn't get one
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 10, 2024 13:13:23 GMT -5
i feel like i'm taking crazy pills. i think it's basically a lock pivetta gets the QO and if he doesn't I assume there is a bad medical file. it is just a free draft pick. but i see a lot of people acting like it's a lock he doesn't get one It's not a free draft pick if he accepts the offer and ties up $21m of the payroll. Let's not act like it's some lowball offer he's definitely rejecting. |
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bishop
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Post by bishop on Oct 10, 2024 13:20:22 GMT -5
Quick question, wasn't sure where to put it. Why does this site have minor league costs going up from $2.75m to $14m towards the CBT on it's Payroll tab? www.soxprospects.com/payroll.htm I'm glad minor leaguers are getting better pay, but that's a large jump against the CBT if accurate. |
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Post by pappyman99 on Oct 10, 2024 13:22:41 GMT -5
Neither, rather a significant player like Soto be the reason we go over the luxury tax
Plus there just isn’t room for either
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bishop
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Post by bishop on Oct 10, 2024 13:39:34 GMT -5
Neither, rather a significant player like Soto be the reason we go over the luxury tax Plus there just isn’t room for either There's definitely payroll room (though my reason for asking above is trying to figure out if that $11.25m jump is real as it affects how much), and there may not be a clean fit on the roster IF everyone is healthy and IF they want to sign a star OF or P, but as long as they have positive trade value (and I assume they would on 1/$21m) it's an asset or it makes it easier to include someone like Abreu or Crawford who has more value in a trade. |
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Post by redsoxpride34 on Oct 10, 2024 16:18:17 GMT -5
No chance Pivetta and O'neill should get QO's. Neither is worth 20 million even for 1 yr. While I agree O'Neill's righty power has some value, the rest of his game offers too much negative. Low avg, high k's, mediocre defender, and just too many bad ab's. Pivetta is a fine starter, probably a #4 on a good team. Which is exactly what this team doesn't need. We've got enough 4/5 starters. Save the money and put it towards a #1 starter or closer or Soto. With all the cheap, young talent on the roster, this is the time to spend big on impact players. Don't overpay for a handful of mid-tier guys as that's what gets you a .500 record and no playoffs. Identify the high end guys you want and spend what it takes to get them. Those are the guys that will add true impact to the roster.
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Post by crossedsabres8 on Oct 10, 2024 18:26:07 GMT -5
I'm surprised that most people seem to want to move on from O'Neill when right handed power is a pretty big need for the team.
He had 2.5 WAR last year in 113 games. He does strike out a lot but he also walks a lot and obviously hits the ball very hard. Also has good clutch stats. His numbers overall are actually remarkably similar to Teoscar Hernandez's numbers, even a little better under the hood.
Of course he has major injury concerns but he also wouldn't have to be an everyday player if they brought him back with how many excellent outfielders they have. Honestly I'd much rather have him on Yoshida's contract right now than Yoshida himself considering handedness and that I think O'Neill is just a better player.
Now whether or not they should offer O'Neill the QO depends on what the market looks like, which sounds like it's gonna be pretty bad. But I feel like the kind of player O'Neill is is a worthwhile investment.
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Post by Darwin's Curve on Oct 10, 2024 20:40:26 GMT -5
I'm surprised that most people seem to want to move on from O'Neill when right handed power is a pretty big need for the team. He had 2.5 WAR last year in 113 games. He does strike out a lot but he also walks a lot and obviously hits the ball very hard. Also has good clutch stats. His numbers overall are actually remarkably similar to Teoscar Hernandez's numbers, even a little better under the hood. Of course he has major injury concerns but he also wouldn't have to be an everyday player if they brought him back with how many excellent outfielders they have. Honestly I'd much rather have him on Yoshida's contract right now than Yoshida himself considering handedness and that I think O'Neill is just a better player. Now whether or not they should offer O'Neill the QO depends on what the market looks like, which sounds like it's gonna be pretty bad. But I feel like the kind of player O'Neill is is a worthwhile investment. RH power is not the issue. Power against LHP is. Power that takes advantage of Fenway is. Sorta kinda. They were 4th in OPS+ in the AL in 2024, and 3rd in runs. They did that without Trevor Story, without Grissom, and with CR OPSing .603 v. LHP (and Dom Smith at .663). Adding Story, Grissom, and Casas should make a difference. If Roman Anthony transitions as he might be expected to, he won't have much of a L/R split either. Adding a RHH power hitter like Campbell might not go amiss either. I don't expect him to be O'Neill level good v. LHP. But if we get reasonable contributions from others on the roster, he does not have to be. |
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Oct 16, 2024 13:01:15 GMT -5
There doesn't seem to be much public buzz on what they're going to do with these QO choices one way or another.
I do wonder if Yoshida's surgery and rehab (again the hope is he's healthy and ready for Opening Day) is yet another factor that entices you to bring back O'Neill. Those factors include but are not limited to:
-Yoshida insurance at DH
-one of the young outfielders get shopped/moved
-if Roman Anthony isn't ready yet in 2025
-if Rafaela were to get relegated to "super-utility"
-desire for right-handed power
Not sure if that justifies a $21 mil QO, but there is plenty a scenario where it fits to have TON back for one more year
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 19, 2024 6:28:18 GMT -5
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Post by incandenza on Oct 19, 2024 9:57:01 GMT -5
They're supposedly interested in wanting O'Neill back. He's supposedly interested in staying. But they don't want to pay 1/21 to bring him back, and apparently don't believe he'd do better than that with another team if they offered him a QO.
Given his performance, this set of facts only makes sense to me if the team and the league have pretty significant concerns about his ability to stay healthy. Which would not be unreasonable.
...But then I have to wonder: where is Breslow's coveted RH power bat going to come from? Is there a better option than O'Neill out there? Teoscar will be available, but he won't be cheaper than last season when 1/23 beat whatever offer the Red Sox made for him. Maybe the big righty "additions" are just going to be Grissom and Campbell.
Also: more confirmation that the team plans to upgrade from Pivetta. I'll be a bit sorry to see him go, but that is a good thing.
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 19, 2024 11:01:08 GMT -5
They're supposedly interested in wanting O'Neill back. He's supposedly interested in staying. But they don't want to pay 1/21 to bring him back, and apparently don't believe he'd do better than that with another team if they offered him a QO.
Given his performance, this set of facts only makes sense to me if the team and the league have pretty significant concerns about his ability to stay healthy. Which would not be unreasonable.
...But then I have to wonder: where is Breslow's coveted RH power bat going to come from? Is there a better option than O'Neill out there? Teoscar will be available, but he won't be cheaper than last season when 1/23 beat whatever offer the Red Sox made for him. Maybe the big righty "additions" are just going to be Grissom and Campbell.
Also: more confirmation that the team plans to upgrade from Pivetta. I'll be a bit sorry to see him go, but that is a good thing.
Agreed for FAs and RHH thump it's O'Neil or Hernandez or bust. Also didn't Hernandez agent bitch about the sox being cheap with him last year? I would rather have Hernandez than O’Neill but either one would be fine with me. |
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Post by incandenza on Oct 19, 2024 11:08:35 GMT -5
They're supposedly interested in wanting O'Neill back. He's supposedly interested in staying. But they don't want to pay 1/21 to bring him back, and apparently don't believe he'd do better than that with another team if they offered him a QO.
Given his performance, this set of facts only makes sense to me if the team and the league have pretty significant concerns about his ability to stay healthy. Which would not be unreasonable.
...But then I have to wonder: where is Breslow's coveted RH power bat going to come from? Is there a better option than O'Neill out there? Teoscar will be available, but he won't be cheaper than last season when 1/23 beat whatever offer the Red Sox made for him. Maybe the big righty "additions" are just going to be Grissom and Campbell.
Also: more confirmation that the team plans to upgrade from Pivetta. I'll be a bit sorry to see him go, but that is a good thing.
Agreed for FAs and RHH thump it's O'Neil or Hernandez or bust. Also didn't Hernandez agent bitch about the sox being cheap with him last year? I would rather have Hernandez than O’Neill but either one would be fine with me. Though Teoscar probably will have a QO attached. And I imagine the Dodgers would want to keep him. Maybe O'Neill can just be had for a lot cheaper than most of us have been thinking. 1/13 or 2/20 or something? |
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 19, 2024 11:10:59 GMT -5
Agreed for FAs and RHH thump it's O'Neil or Hernandez or bust. Also didn't Hernandez agent bitch about the sox being cheap with him last year? I would rather have Hernandez than O’Neill but either one would be fine with me. Though Teoscar probably will have a QO attached. And I imagine the Dodgers would want to keep him. Maybe O'Neill can just be had for a lot cheaper than most of us have been thinking. 1/13 or 2/20 or something? True hadn't really put much thought into the QO for Hernandez. Putting that into the equation I'd maybe rather have O'Neill. 2 or 3 years at 15M maybe gets it done? I have no clue on FA prices anymore though so nothing would surprise me that much with O'Neill. |
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Post by pappyman99 on Oct 19, 2024 12:35:38 GMT -5
Agreed for FAs and RHH thump it's O'Neil or Hernandez or bust. Also didn't Hernandez agent bitch about the sox being cheap with him last year? I would rather have Hernandez than O’Neill but either one would be fine with me. Though Teoscar probably will have a QO attached. And I imagine the Dodgers would want to keep him. Maybe O'Neill can just be had for a lot cheaper than most of us have been thinking. 1/13 or 2/20 or something? I think 2 for 26 probably can get him maybe 28 for sure? |
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Post by asm18 on Oct 19, 2024 13:25:30 GMT -5
Agreed for FAs and RHH thump it's O'Neil or Hernandez or bust. Also didn't Hernandez agent bitch about the sox being cheap with him last year? I would rather have Hernandez than O’Neill but either one would be fine with me. Though Teoscar probably will have a QO attached. And I imagine the Dodgers would want to keep him. Maybe O'Neill can just be had for a lot cheaper than most of us have been thinking. 1/13 or 2/20 or something? Teoscar last year off a poor (for him) year got what like , 1 year, $23 mil (with weird deferrals)? O’Neill had a 2 WAR 30+ homer season in 100ish games, so you’d think at minimum he could get that? I can imagine him being slightly worth less than the QO - but if you earnestly want him back if you’re the Red Sox, I don’t know why you would want to expose him to a unfettered open market. If you offer him the QO, things are heavily in your favor to bring him back. As opposed to not doing it so they can try to squeeze out a few mil in lower AAV but having waaaay more competition for him. |
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Oct 19, 2024 13:32:50 GMT -5
Some thoughts:
-A healthy RHB Tyler O’Neill, in the right circumstances, is good for this team. The trick is keeping him healthy.
-But where does he play in an OF of Duran, Rafaella, Abreu, Refsnyder, Anthony, Campbell? Half of those 6 are RHB and Anthony hits LHP well.
-True, a trade of someone (not Duran) could change that. Even at just 2/$28 + option, his annual contract would be more than or ~ the same $$ as all 6 of these OF combined until Arb kicks in for a couple of them.
-Under the circumstances should those $$ be better spent on seriously upgraded pitching?.
-Would he consider the role of DH until Masa is fully healed? And then become the versatile DH, LF, RF, PH, PR; in other words a big righty power bat with a better glove and running game than Masa.
-He would then be, factually, an above average OF and DH injury replacement, which would be worth such a contract?
This thread reflects what wonderful problems the FO has this off-season for the OF, IF, C, SP, RP. This year it is FINALLY not about filling holes and more about upgrading, improving, complementing; much of it from within the house. It’s moreTetrus or a jigsaw puzzle. Exciting.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 19, 2024 14:05:55 GMT -5
Some thoughts: -A healthy RHB Tyler O’Neill, in the right circumstances, is good for this team. The trick is keeping him healthy. -But where does he play in an OF of Duran, Rafaella, Abreu, Refsnyder, Anthony, Campbell? Half of those 6 are RHB and Anthony hits LHP well. -True, a trade of someone (not Duran) could change that. Even at just 2/$28 + option, his annual contract would be more than or ~ the same $$ as all 6 of these OF combined until Arb kicks in for a couple of them. -Under the circumstances should those $$ be better spent on seriously upgraded pitching?. -Would he consider the role of DH until Masa is fully healed? And then become the versatile DH, LF, RF, PH, PR; in other words a big righty power bat with a better glove and running game than Masa. -He would then be, factually, an above average OF and DH injury replacement, which would be worth such a contract? This thread reflects what wonderful problems the FO has this off-season for the OF, IF, C, SP, RP. This year it is FINALLY not about filling holes and more about upgrading, improving, complementing; much of it from within the house. It’s moreTetrus or a jigsaw puzzle. Exciting. It's an interesting conundrum. In the abstract, simply dropping Yoshida in favor of O'Neill makes sense, roster fit-wise. But in the context of the whole lineup, you'd be keeping the guy with the 30%+ K rate and ditching the guy with the 13% K rate, compounding the lineup's biggest weakness, which feels like it would really ding the overall offense in a way that isn't captured by the fact that O'Neill might project to have a somewhat better wRC+. |
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Post by finaliz3d on Oct 19, 2024 15:06:38 GMT -5
Some thoughts: -A healthy RHB Tyler O’Neill, in the right circumstances, is good for this team. The trick is keeping him healthy. -But where does he play in an OF of Duran, Rafaella, Abreu, Refsnyder, Anthony, Campbell? Half of those 6 are RHB and Anthony hits LHP well. -True, a trade of someone (not Duran) could change that. Even at just 2/$28 + option, his annual contract would be more than or ~ the same $$ as all 6 of these OF combined until Arb kicks in for a couple of them. -Under the circumstances should those $$ be better spent on seriously upgraded pitching?. -Would he consider the role of DH until Masa is fully healed? And then become the versatile DH, LF, RF, PH, PR; in other words a big righty power bat with a better glove and running game than Masa. -He would then be, factually, an above average OF and DH injury replacement, which would be worth such a contract? This thread reflects what wonderful problems the FO has this off-season for the OF, IF, C, SP, RP. This year it is FINALLY not about filling holes and more about upgrading, improving, complementing; much of it from within the house. It’s moreTetrus or a jigsaw puzzle. Exciting. It's an interesting conundrum. In the abstract, simply dropping Yoshida in favor of O'Neill makes sense, roster fit-wise. But in the context of the whole lineup, you'd be keeping the guy with the 30%+ K rate and ditching the guy with the 13% K rate, compounding the lineup's biggest weakness, which feels like it would really ding the overall offense in a way that isn't captured by the fact that O'Neill might project to have a somewhat better wRC+. Biggest weakness? If we don't have O'Neill or someone comparable our best right handed hitter will either be Connor Wong, Trevor Story or a rookie Kristian Campbell/Vaughn Grissom. Who do you even hit in the middle of the order? |
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Post by gerry on Oct 19, 2024 18:23:56 GMT -5
Who would you suggest? Where would he play? What level of contract would be acceptable? Who do the Sox trade (without taking a hit?)
Edit: I like TON for this team. Besides his talent, he won’t cost a ton of money to keep or a ton of prospects in a trade or a draft pick to sign someone like Teoscar. The conundrum is where and how does he fit?
ONeill is a logical choice to compliment Story, Grissom, Refsnyder, Wong, Rafaella and even Anthony vs LHP. How do we keep him. I would not want him to displace Masa’s bat or Duran’s or Abreu/Anthony’s or Ref’s; or degrade this remarkable OF defense.
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Post by gerry on Oct 19, 2024 19:02:44 GMT -5
And your question who do you hit in the middle of the order? I have again seen info that Masa may not be ready until May. If so a healthy O’Neill seems a no brainer to find a fit. Batting him at #5 would be inspiring.
But without him, for example, and looking down the road just a little, starting a lineup with Duran, Anthony, Grissom, Devers, Casas, Story, Masa, Wong, Rafaella could be pretty amazing. That’s without even including Teel, Campbell, Mayer, Hamilton, Refsnyder, Romy.
The points I am trying to make are I would rather have O’Neill healthy and on a reasonable deal (no QO) than anyone with a big contract and a QO hit. And that even without O’Neill the FO has so much to work with this off-season that any configuration should be very competitive. We are happily in the process of “turning the page”
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Post by finaliz3d on Oct 19, 2024 19:33:05 GMT -5
Yoshida is 4-6 months, so anywhere between February and mid-April, early May at the latest... you have to spend the majority of the season with O'Neill and Yoshida on the roster, while also juggling Abreu, Rafaela, Duran, Refsnyder, Anthony in the outfield...
Somebody has to go, potentially two if you want O'Neill back (or someone comparable), and I think it is necessary with the build of this team to get one middle of the order RHB.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 19, 2024 20:13:51 GMT -5
It's an interesting conundrum. In the abstract, simply dropping Yoshida in favor of O'Neill makes sense, roster fit-wise. But in the context of the whole lineup, you'd be keeping the guy with the 30%+ K rate and ditching the guy with the 13% K rate, compounding the lineup's biggest weakness, which feels like it would really ding the overall offense in a way that isn't captured by the fact that O'Neill might project to have a somewhat better wRC+. Biggest weakness? If we don't have O'Neill or someone comparable our best right handed hitter will either be Connor Wong, Trevor Story or a rookie Kristian Campbell/Vaughn Grissom. Who do you even hit in the middle of the order? Yeah in general I think too much gets made of the RH/LH thing. The Red Sox had a 105 wRC+ vs. RHP and a 101 wRC+ vs. LHP. 12th in the MLB vs. 14th in MLB. It's just not that big a deal. By contrast, they were third worst in K%. So if you asked me if I'd rather hold onto the guy who kills lefties or the guy with the low K rate, all else being equal I'd take the latter.
And who do you hit in the middle of the order? Well, Devers, Casas, Yoshida, Abreu, Story, Campbell, with Duran and Grissom at the top of the order... they can fill out a lineup.
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Post by finaliz3d on Oct 19, 2024 20:44:38 GMT -5
Biggest weakness? If we don't have O'Neill or someone comparable our best right handed hitter will either be Connor Wong, Trevor Story or a rookie Kristian Campbell/Vaughn Grissom. Who do you even hit in the middle of the order? Yeah in general I think too much gets made of the RH/LH thing. The Red Sox had a 105 wRC+ vs. RHP and a 101 wRC+ vs. LHP. 12th in the MLB vs. 14th in MLB. It's just not that big a deal. By contrast, they were third worst in K%. So if you asked me if I'd rather hold onto the guy who kills lefties or the guy with the low K rate, all else being equal I'd take the latter.
And who do you hit in the middle of the order? Well, Devers, Casas, Yoshida, Abreu, Story, Campbell, with Duran and Grissom at the top of the order... they can fill out a lineup.
Devers had an 88 wRC+ against lefties, Duran was at 86 wRC+, Yoshida was 58 wRC+, Abreu was 48 wRC+, I'm not betting on Grissom or Campbell to be guys who can be at the top of the order immediately. Casas was 109 wRC+ against lefties, which is great to see, but it's not dominant. The guys who dominated lefties for us were Romy, Rob, Wong, and O'Neill. Wong always falters first half to second half, Rob is a bench guy as much as I love him, same with Romy but I don't trust him to repeat his performance. O'Neill specifically had a 215 wRC+ against lefties. What do you think happens to that number if you lose your top guy against lefties? They need at least one elite righty. You can't just throw five lefties in a row at the top of the order. I'm not attached to O'Neill absolutely, but we need someone. Our LHH have a 73 wRC+ against LHP, 22nd in the league and we were just as close to being 21st as we were to being 27th. |
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