Qualifying offers

Not going to get in a back and forth about it but yea he is and I don't know if he will or not but chances are that he will. Putting him in the BP is a bad idea.

You`re puzzling us aren`t you?

Cannot imagine TON does not receive a QO. He is exactly what they need. You do not get 40+ HR upside without long-term commitment often.

Pivetta returning would be a tough situation. They clearly need to improve the rotation, and Pivetta’s spot is most logical. If they re-sign Pivetta, they will be hard-pressed to roll out a better pitching staff in ‘25.

I suppose that's true if you think year-over-year improvement isn't likely.  If the FO feel they can continue to leverage development of the current staff to drive overall improvement, that would obviously be the most capital-efficient lever.  Houck, Crawford, Bello and Pivetta all made strides in year one of the new pitching program.  Obviously, production fell off in the second half, but some of that could probably be attributable to fatigue (Houck and Crawford blew past their previous IP high months ago), some of it undoubtedly came from offenses adjusting to them.  I have to believe Bres and Bailey think there's more aggregate WAR that can come from improving our young pitching (at no payroll cost) than we'll get from bringing in a 30+ yr old starter on the downside of his career at 25-30M per year into eternity.  I could imagine a trade for a mid-rotation starter that wouldn't be cost prohibitive (Abreu+), but would we bring back someone demonstrably better than Pivetta?  IMO, to meaningfully improve pitching, we need to leverage existing staff and invest heavily in the bullpen.  Rather than pouring our money into a massive SP contract will hamstring us out into the future, spending on extensions for the young core feels like a much better strategic bet. If we want to go out and get a TOR arm at the deadline, you can usually pick up a Flaherty-like rental for a reasonable price.

On paper, TON makes sense.  They need a RHH to, at the very least, platoon with Abreu, assuming he comes back.  Ref, if he chooses to return, would continue to fill that role.  But another RHH would be ideal.  Trouble is Masa.  It would be great if we could find a taker for him and then bring in TON to play OF and rotate through DH.  If this year told us anything, it's that we need RHH, as well as viable 1B depth and 2B starter.  I like Campbell for 2B and TON for RHH.  Still no clue who we bring into as 1B depth.

blogs.fangraphs.com/top-of-the-order-previewing-the-qualifying-offer-decisions/

Fangraphs has TON as “likely to receive, likely to reject,” and Pivetta as “total tossup” for the reasons spelled out previously (valuable pitcher, probably will receive $35M+, but Red Sox may not want to risk him coming back on a $22M QO if they want to spend on pitching elsewhere).

TON would be a nice to have on this roster next year as a right handed power hitter. Especially if he can learn first base. I hope they offer the QO, he rejects, and they work out a deal.

But the Red Sox have been remarkable capable of finding right-handed outfielders off the scrap heap the past few years: Renfrow, Duval, Refsnyder, and O'Neill. I'm kind of confident they could find someone else to fill that role if they choose to go in a different direction.

We will know 5 days after the world series what the Sox have decided but as of right now, the board here has it as O'Neill 48, Pivetta 29, neither 23 with an equal 23 for both. Even with Pivetta's strong last two starts, he hasn't motivated anyone here to change their votes for him but you still can. We also have been on 77 votes for a while if you haven't cast one yet.

I think my main motivation for offering would be the draft picks involved. I think the QO might be a slight overpay for both if accepted but I think both would decline. If either accepted, well as jimoh said earlier here, one year contracts are good.

Pretty much where I stand, I think it's a coin flip for both of them if they were to receive the QO and I don't think either of them are worth the $21M it'll cost. However for just one season it would not be a back breaker by any means, at least long term anyway. It would certainly make it harder to improve the roster from outside the organization help though and would put more pressure on the young players to be the improvement necessary. 

I would be really shocked if TON got it. Before the season there apparently was little interest in him on a 1 year/$5 million deal around the league. His 2024 season was worth almost exactly the QO contract and you'd have to take the under on him repeating that.

I am also not getting the sense that the FA money will be flying around the league this offseason based on some of the media reports I am reading.

I'm not saying O’Neill didn't raise his stock, he certainly did this year but at the same time it is reasonable to me to question whether O'Neill will have a robust market. Especially if he's given a QO. He's had 1 good year out of 3 and even this year had some injury issues. Not sure I see teams lining up to give him a large multi year deal.

MLB trade rumors chat:

2:59 Do you see me [Breslow]retaining O'Neill? I need a right-handed bat and my infield is already crowded without counting the prospects. A QO for one more year of him would be reasonable for him and for me.
Steve Adams
3:01 I don't think the Red Sox will or should make a qualifying offer. O'Neill can get a nice three-year deal in free agency, but he'd probably accept a $21.2MM one-year deal and that's more than I'd care to pay for a year of a player with his track record of injuries and strikeouts. The ceiling certainly justifies it, and even this year's performance does as well, but it's extremely optimistic to expect him to replicate that.
Big Poison
3:01 Pirates in need of outfield help. Notoriously low spenders in free agency so it’s unlikely but what would a Tyler O’Neill contract look like?
Steve Adams
3:01 Couple O'Neill ones back-to-back. I've got him around 3/45 in free agency.
3:02 I think that's probably too rich for the Pirates, but it's on the upper threshold of what I'd consider at least semi-plausible. They're not going to sign Alex Bregman or Max Fried or something, but they gave Francisco Liriano 3/39 once upon a time. 3/45 on TON is at least not out of the question (though I agree it's unlikely)
www.jotcast.com/chat/chat-with-mlbtrs-steve-adams-10-8-24-19338.html