Qualifying offers

The problem I have with QO'ing/bringing Pivetta back is it becomes hard to see how you really upgrade the rotation if he's back and I think there is a fair chance Pivetta takes the QO if he's tagged with it. Assuming Houck, Bello, Crawford and Giolito are going to be in the opening day rotation. If you add Pivetta to that you basically have the same rotation as this year barring a trade of one of Houck, Bello or Crawford. I don't see Giolito having any trade value so I didn't include him. I'd rather take that $21M and add $10M~ and go after Burnes or Fried. I'm not saying I'm fully against Pivetta being back if that is the choice but it's hard to see how that makes them better in 2025 than they were this year. At that point you're pretty much placing all your eggs in the basket of the young guys improving/uber prospects hitting the ground running.

I'm not trying to advocate the Q.O. but if I was hired to do so allow me to make the argument. There seems to be, or at least to me, a small path where a Q.O. could make sense.  If the Sox like Nick Pivetta, and they think he would sign a friendly extension in lieu of accepting the Q.O. it could easily kill his market. As you said, there's a chance he accepts it, given his age he might take a reasonable extension but I'd think it would be a risk they'd be willing to take if A.) they were willing to over the luxury tax or not spend on another pitcher and B.) they think there's a good chance they can extend him on a 3-4 year deal. 

Nick Pivetta is what he is at this point, he's never going to be an ace (although I speculate how he could look full time in the back of a bullpen role), but he's durable and consistent.  Would he accept a 4/50? $12.5 million a year seems like a very reasonable price for him.  And if he does move into a bullpen role, granted he's good in that role, that's still very reasonable money for a good bullpen arm. 

I think there would still be room to go out and trade for an arm, or even sign a guy like Burnes, because as we've seen year in and year out, and we all know this....you can never have enough pitching. 

Burnes/Trade for ace
Houck
Giolito
Bello
Pivetta

Depth:
Crawford
Criswell
Priester
Fitts

Sorry to double up on replies but I see it extremely unlikely Pivetta would take 4/50, why wouldn't he just take the QO at that point? If I'm Pivetta I take the 21M for this year and then bet that I can get a lot more than 3 years 30M next year when there is no QO attached. I can certainly see both sides of the argument but if the options are Pivetta back next year on a QO or upgrade over him with Burnes/Fried for an extra 10-15M I take Burnes/Fried. Before anyone jumps down my throat, yes I know that's simplistic way of looking at it just one year at a time and Pivetta on a QO is 1 year vs 6-7 that Burnes/Fried are going to get but that's just where I'm at right now. I want to see this team upgraded for 2025 and I'll worry about 2026 and forward afterwards. 

There's also scenario 3 where they QO Pivetta he declines signs elsewhere and my thoughts are all moot. I feel like it's probably 50/50 he takes the QO though after seeing Montgomery and Snell's market last year. Much better pitchers or at least Snell certainly is had to wait until ST to get a short term pillow deal. 

I don't disagree, and I guess they don't and if I had to chose I'd probably lean towards not giving him one but I'm just playing devils advocate.  I did say there's a "small path" where it makes sense.  I suppose you could say why wouldn't he take the $20 million and then get more than $30 the next year?  And that's a argument, If I could continue to play devils advoate I'd say he takes it because he will never hit free agency in his prime again and this is his only real chance for a payday.  He's not getting 200 or 300 million and 50 million is a lot of money.  In todays world and in this game anything can happen, despite his durability he could blow out his arm next year.  He might want that guranteed payday?  I can't read his mind, but if he was of this mindset and the Sox like him it could make sense.  Again....narrow path. 

If for whatever reason this did materialize and the Sox made no other upgrades to the rotation and tried to sell Giolito as the needed addition....I'd be very dissatisfied. 

I suppose this is all a mute point. I think there's a greater than 0% chance he gets offered a Q.O. albeit that chance might be less than 1.5% as well.  Full disclosure....I made that number up without any kind of quantitative analysis. 

Thing is Giolito is the likely worst of those starters. Over his previous two years (~345 innings) he pitched to a 4.89 ERA... and then his elbow exploded. His best attribute - being an innings eater - is now uncertain because we don't know the volume of innings he can go next year. From Tommy John to 150+ innings is alot.

It would be sort of ironic if they didn't QO Pivetta and essentially declined to pay him 1 year, 20 mil (assuming he took the QO).... because they basically offered Giolito in effect QO money (1 year, 18 mil). Like it seems kinda silly to offer that to Giolito (and a player option), but not to Pivetta who is a better pitcher at the moment than when Giolito was offered that deal?

To many's point, the budget comes into play here. But if something as low risk as a one year deal for Tyler O'Neill or Nick Pivetta feels like it's going to wreck their budget that quick, then maybe this team shouldn't be trying to make their upgrades this winter through the free agency route because it's gonna get waaaay more pricey for dudes who are better than those guys

In a world where they have no budget restrictions sure bring back Pivetta and get top of the rotation SP, we aren't in that world though. I would guestimate that they have about 60M to spend. Pivetta and FA top of rotation starter combined probably comes in at 50-55M. Doesn't leave them much room to add anything else to the roster and leaves them no room if they want to leave a buffer below the LT for potential deadline moves. I feel like if Pivetta is back you probably can cross off much chance of them adding a better pitcher through FA and would leave them to the trade route to acquire said pitcher for cheaper in terms of dollars but it will sting to make that type of trade in terms of prospects/young talent. 

If the Red Sox do not plan on competing for the top tier like Burns, they might as well re-sign Pivetta. He is inconsistent, but he pitches enough quality outings that he would be worth the money (K rate, hits to innings, WHIP, are all reasonable, as the biggest problem is HRs). He is a known quantity and not subject to Carl Crawford-itous. TO is a power RH who the Red Sox have managed his workload well enough to keep him in the lineup for the majority of the year. I would QO both hoping they take it. I would not want to offer TO or Pivetta a three year a guaranteed contract with TO’s injury history or Pivetta’s age.

A couple Kel-evens could get the #s to work and everyone home by 7!

Realistically though, I don't really agree with this. They clearly have a set budget, sitting there crunching the #s and their payroll flexibility on whether to QO Pivetta is just good roster management. They have to know their top dollar payroll limits, measure how much Pivetta potentially accepting a QO would change their other plans and go from there. If the general assumption that they have about 60M to spend is the case and they are deadset on going after Burnes or Fried then I don't give Pivetta the QO and risk him accepting it. 

Has the front office given any hints as to how they feel about these two? I can't believe they haven't at least discussed with their agents the possible;lity of bringing them back but understand we are unlikely to know even if they did.

I'm not sure it is a question of love - it's more a question of reality. There's a couple of guys I'd want over Pivetta on the free agent market and they are going to cost a ton more than $20M for one year.  Since Pivetta is arguably our 2nd best starting pitcher, that's why I would offer the QO.  It's like we have this binary choice of sign $30M plus starter and it's mandatory to keep Bello or Crawford in the rotation no matter what.

A Pivetta QO represents a one year commitment to Pivetta as (nominally) one of your five starting pitchers.  It represents a fairly specific percentage of the overall operating budget, but more importantly, a much larger percentage of the marginal budget for 2025 (in the context of all the other players they've already committed to paying.)

So if Breslow thinks he can do better with someone else as a starter at $16M for 2 years, or better with two $10M relievers (signed as FAs or with their salaries obtained via trade), or better with a cost controlled pitcher stapled to a $18M underwater contract for some declining player, then he shouldn't make the offer to Pivetta at all.  He should go with his primary plan.  

Granted there are going to be grey areas, and maybe Pivetta as a $20M starter for 2025 is something Breslow can work with.  Either because it overall costs less or the same (in terms of traded talent/salary commitments) to sign Pivetta, or because he thinks Bailey can unlock some potential within him.  

But it's neither an insignificant nor inconsequential amount of money and use of a roster space.