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Post by abrinker on Oct 19, 2024 23:44:26 GMT -5
Biggest weakness? If we don't have O'Neill or someone comparable our best right handed hitter will either be Connor Wong, Trevor Story or a rookie Kristian Campbell/Vaughn Grissom. Who do you even hit in the middle of the order? Yeah in general I think too much gets made of the RH/LH thing. The Red Sox had a 105 wRC+ vs. RHP and a 101 wRC+ vs. LHP. 12th in the MLB vs. 14th in MLB. It's just not that big a deal. By contrast, they were third worst in K%. So if you asked me if I'd rather hold onto the guy who kills lefties or the guy with the low K rate, all else being equal I'd take the latter.
And who do you hit in the middle of the order? Well, Devers, Casas, Yoshida, Abreu, Story, Campbell, with Duran and Grissom at the top of the order... they can fill out a lineup.
A couple of points… If the bolded statement is part of why you don’t see any urgency in bringing back TON or having another impact RHH like him, I don’t think your logic makes as much sense as you think it does. Consider the following 2024 facts vs LHP: - TON accounted for 9% of all Sox PAs
- Over those PAs, his wRC+ was 215, second only to Judge
- His .750 SLG led MLB
- TON accounted for 27% of Sox HRs
Without O’Neill, the Sox’ wRC+ vs LHP would have been 83 (!!!), fourth worst in the league. So, you can’t point to the Sox’ 101 mark as a reason for why we don’t need someone like TON, when he was the single biggest (by a long shot) reason why the Sox managed to be even average overall. I’m not saying it needs to be O’Neill, nor is it likely he’ll replicate that production, but since one of Breslow’s three priorities is to add balance to the lineup to boost productivity vs LHP, if you let that production walk, you have to replace it elsewhere, and then add on top of it. The bottom line is, our lineup is terrible vs LHP, and I’m glad Breslow sees it and is determined to improve it.
EDIT:
Also, I do agree that his K% is high, not as high as Devers, Casas, or Rafaela. i wonder if someone like Grichuk could be an alternative. Not as much power, but solid from the right side of the plate, with a sub-20% K rate. More versatile in the OF, too. Not sure I want to pin my hopes on him, though. It’ll be really interesting to see how Breslow adds more balance to this year’s lineup. If that’s where we’re headed, a trade would have to happen to create the room for a couple RHH bats (what FA is there?). Campbell could be one, but would Breslow really be comfortable addressing his biggest lineup priority with an unproven rookie? |
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Post by incandenza on Oct 20, 2024 0:19:41 GMT -5
Yeah in general I think too much gets made of the RH/LH thing. The Red Sox had a 105 wRC+ vs. RHP and a 101 wRC+ vs. LHP. 12th in the MLB vs. 14th in MLB. It's just not that big a deal. By contrast, they were third worst in K%. So if you asked me if I'd rather hold onto the guy who kills lefties or the guy with the low K rate, all else being equal I'd take the latter.
And who do you hit in the middle of the order? Well, Devers, Casas, Yoshida, Abreu, Story, Campbell, with Duran and Grissom at the top of the order... they can fill out a lineup.
A couple of points… If the bolded statement is part of why you don’t see any urgency in bringing back TON or having another impact RHH like him, I don’t think your logic makes as much sense as you think it does. Consider the following 2024 facts vs LHP: - TON accounted for 9% of all Sox PAs
- Over those PAs, his wRC+ was 215, second only to Judge
- His .750 SLG led MLB
- TON accounted for 27% of Sox HRs
Without O’Neill, the Sox’ wRC+ vs LHP would have been 83 (!!!), fourth worst in the league. So, you can’t point to the Sox 101 mark as a reason for why we don’t need someone like TON, when he was the single biggest (by a long shot) reason why the Sox managed to be even average overall. I’m not saying it needs to be O’Neill, nor is it likely he’ll replicate that production, but since one of Breslow’s three priorities is to add balance to the lineup to boost proclivity vs LHP, if you let that production walk, you have to replace it elsewhere, and then add on top of it. The bottom line is, our lineup is terrible vs LHP, and I’m glad Breslow sees it and is determined to improve it. Some of the math is off here. O'Neill accounted for a little under 7% of Sox PAs vs. lefties, and sans O'Neill they'd be at like 93, not 83. And but anyway, I never said I didn't want him back; I said that if it were a question of keeping O'Neill or keeping Yoshida, it's not obvious that keeping O'Neill would be the better option because for whatever handedness balance he brings to the lineup, he exacerbates it's strikeout problems, while Yoshida does the opposite.
Or to put it more simply: I'm more concerned about the lineup's strikeout rate than I am about righty/lefty balance. If anything urgently needs addressing, it's that.
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Post by abrinker on Oct 20, 2024 0:49:37 GMT -5
On math, maybe I’m wrong, but I see TON had 156 PAs of BOS total of 1816, which comes to 9% (rounded). Whatever. I know K% can’t be ignored. Again, I wasn’t suggesting TON needed to be the guy, just that they need to replace his value and then some. Without him, their production was well below average, and they had the fourth-most PAs vs LHP in the league. All teams know they’re terrible, so they loaded up on that advantage. If they don’t find some more competence there, it’ll be even worse next season. Ultimately, it doesn’t really matter what we think. Breslow seems to have identified the problem, and has indicated he will make it a priority to improve. At the end of the day, I suppose that’s what matters.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 20, 2024 1:10:43 GMT -5
On math, maybe I’m wrong, but I see TON had 156 PAs of BOS total of 1816, which comes to 9% (rounded). Whatever. I know K% can’t be ignored. Again, I wasn’t suggesting TON needed to be the guy, just that they need to replace his value and then some. Without him, their production was well below average, and they had the fourth-most PAs vs LHP in the league. All teams know they’re terrible, so they loaded up on that advantage. If they don’t find some more competence there, it’ll be even worse next season. Ultimately, it doesn’t really matter what we think. Breslow seems to have identified the problem, and has indicated he will make it a priority to improve. At the end of the day, I suppose that’s what matters. Oh my bad, I was looking at ABs not PAs. |
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Oct 20, 2024 1:27:08 GMT -5
So in addition to dealing with QO’s, SP, RP, C, 2B, and returns of not just Masa but several important pitchers, Breslow has to put together a balanced, fast, strong defense and offense among OF Duran, Rafaella, ONeill, Abreu, Ref, Anthony, Campbell. LOLOL, anyone else?
The very definition of “it’s complicated.” Such problems.
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 20, 2024 5:46:43 GMT -5
I'm sure they'd like O’Neill back at a certain dollar amount but if McAdam is correct they they will not QO him then that dollar amount is obviously less than 21M. My guess is its probably something in the range of 10-15M. Feels to me like there's a decent chance o'neill can do better than that being the RHH OF market is him and Hernandez then a sizeable gap but at the same time it's not easy to identify what teams might be big spenders this offseason so who knows.
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 31, 2024 9:42:14 GMT -5
We will know one way or another on November 4th if the Sox are QO'ing Pivetta and/or O'Neill. I am still going to guess no to either but wouldn't be surprised in regards to Pivetta if they did. I would be surprised if they did with O'Neill.
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Post by bloomstaxonomy on Oct 31, 2024 10:19:14 GMT -5
Will be very interesting to see what they end up doing with Pivetta and O'Neill, and those important decisions should foreshadow how the rest of the offseason will unfold.
Good thing there are no other important decisions happening next week.
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asm18
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Posts: 2,792
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Post by asm18 on Oct 31, 2024 10:21:02 GMT -5
I begrudgingly have been swayed to no QO for either by Ian on yesterday's pod - the case being that if the Red Sox are skittish about going over the CBT it's just hard to commit $21 mil a pop to O'Neill and Pivetta to begin your offseason. But I don't love it
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 31, 2024 10:29:58 GMT -5
I begrudgingly have been swayed to no QO for either by Ian on yesterday's pod - the case being that if the Red Sox are skittish about going over the CBT it's just hard to commit $21 mil a pop to O'Neill and Pivetta to begin your offseason. But I don't love it Therein lies the rub, if the Sox are once again steadfast on not going over the LT then QO'ing either obviously takes a big chunk of their money to spend this offseason if they were to accept. I think O'Neill probably would and I think Pivetta probably wouldn't be it'd be a gamble. That being said unless the Sox want to play in the big boy pool and get one of Burnes/Fried/Snell then you can make the case Pivetta back for 1/21M would be as good of a contract that the Sox could hope for on an SP. They clearly don't like going long term on SPs as an org which who can blame them. |
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Post by itinerantherb on Oct 31, 2024 14:14:09 GMT -5
I begrudgingly have been swayed to no QO for either by Ian on yesterday's pod - the case being that if the Red Sox are skittish about going over the CBT it's just hard to commit $21 mil a pop to O'Neill and Pivetta to begin your offseason. But I don't love it Therein lies the rub, if the Sox are once again steadfast on not going over the LT then QO'ing either obviously takes a big chunk of their money to spend this offseason if they were to accept. I think O'Neill probably would and I think Pivetta probably wouldn't be it'd be a gamble. That being said unless the Sox want to play in the big boy pool and get one of Burnes/Fried/Snell then you can make the case Pivetta back for 1/21M would be as good of a contract that the Sox could hope for on an SP. They clearly don't like going long term on SPs as an org which who can blame them. This is where I've ultimately landed, as well. If they know they're unwilling to sign a 30+ year old pitcher to a 5+ year deal well north of $100M and they're not going to pay the ransom for someone like Crochet, then Pivetta is solidly in the next tier down, is a known quantity, has been relatively healthy, has shown flashes of excellence, etc. Of course, on November 4, they won't know how the Burnes/Fried/Snell markets will play out, and the bidding war for Crochet will just be beginning. Also, if they're interested in keeping Pivetta around for a couple years, the QO does give the team some modest leverage. |
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Oct 31, 2024 17:20:59 GMT -5
If they extend offers to both I’m going under the assumption that they’re focused on the trade route and won’t really be players in FA. Which would be disappointing again but understandable since the team isn’t a contender yet. But at the same time if both reject the QO then it’s great since they’ll get compensation.
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Post by iakovos11 on Oct 31, 2024 17:28:41 GMT -5
Therein lies the rub, if the Sox are once again steadfast on not going over the LT then QO'ing either obviously takes a big chunk of their money to spend this offseason if they were to accept. I think O'Neill probably would and I think Pivetta probably wouldn't be it'd be a gamble. That being said unless the Sox want to play in the big boy pool and get one of Burnes/Fried/Snell then you can make the case Pivetta back for 1/21M would be as good of a contract that the Sox could hope for on an SP. They clearly don't like going long term on SPs as an org which who can blame them. This is where I've ultimately landed, as well. If they know they're unwilling to sign a 30+ year old pitcher to a 5+ year deal well north of $100M and they're not going to pay the ransom for someone like Crochet, then Pivetta is solidly in the next tier down, is a known quantity, has been relatively healthy, has shown flashes of excellence, etc. Of course, on November 4, they won't know how the Burnes/Fried/Snell markets will play out, and the bidding war for Crochet will just be beginning. Also, if they're interested in keeping Pivetta around for a couple years, the QO does give the team some modest leverage. I'm wondering if there's a strategy (maybe from Breslow as a player perspective) not to extend the QO on questionable or mid range talent. Let the guy know you'd be interested at the right price, but you don't want to limit his market with the QO. Maybe gives them an edge if they're in the ballpark. I can see a player saying these guys played fair with me and I liked it there, I think they're heading in the right direction, I'd resign if if they're in the ballpark. Also gives the Sox the option to explore other options and see what route they'd prefer to take. |
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