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Post by okin15 on Sept 9, 2024 8:39:44 GMT -5
MLB needs multiple QO levels (2nd round, 3rd round, etc.) and they probably need a way for players with certain service levels to not be eligible. It is effectively restricted free agency as the NFL calls it, but the NFL uses it for the equivalent of 7th year MLB players and at I think 3 levels.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 9, 2024 8:41:52 GMT -5
It's a narrow range where a player can get a better contract than the qualifying offer without the draft penalty but not with it, but I think both O'Neill and Pivetta might be in that range.
Give it to O'Neill but not Pivetta, is what I think they ought to do, for reasons others have pretty much given. They can upgrade on Pivetta at a reasonable cost but I don't think the same can be said of O'Neill.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 9, 2024 8:53:11 GMT -5
Honestly, I'll go another route - they need to offer one of them, because if they don't it's pretty much roster malpractice. Not as bad as 2022, but still not smart. I would offer them both because I think both of them will decline it, but I can understand not wanting to tie $40M up in these two players. As far how it works roster wise; it's a little more difficult. But trades are going to be necessary one way or the other anyway. For O'Neill, if they can liquidate Yoshida, then you can easily run an outfield of Duran, Rafaela, Abreu (or Anthony, Duran, Rafaela) - with O'Neill occasionally filling in in LF, but mostly being the DH. As for Pivetta; if he were to accept, I'd be tempted to move Bello to the bullpen. Then they could still add (via trade or FA) or back fill with Priester. Actually, now that I think about it; and it is probably against the rules and maybe a little underhanded, but after the season ends, I'd tell Pivetta that if he comes back, he'll be moved to the bullpen full time. Moving Bello to the BP would be roster malpractice if you ask me. 2nd half of this season his FIP is 3.83 xFIP 3.83 with an ERA of 3.78. He's been a perfectly serviceable #3 starter. |
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Post by chaimtime on Sept 9, 2024 12:46:49 GMT -5
Stuff+ says Nick Pivetta has been the best pitcher in baseball with over 120 innings this year. I’m not sure I would go that far, but I have a feeling the Red Sox will try to keep him around.
It’s tough, because I don’t think the Red Sox want those guys around on QOs next year, and it’s not really clear if either would accept it. I think given his age, Pivetta will be a bit more likely to turn it down in search of a longer term deal. A lot will depend on how they end the season, of course.
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Post by capesox on Sept 9, 2024 13:12:41 GMT -5
Both are tough decisions, but I would do both. One year deals and I think they'll be ok going over tax next year. Need a RH middle of the order bat if you don't keep TON and 2 or 3 SP if you don't keep Pivetta. Don't think they do better in the open market for those at that price. The picks would be a nice alternative if they decline. .
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Post by puzzler on Sept 9, 2024 13:52:37 GMT -5
Honestly, I'll go another route - they need to offer one of them, because if they don't it's pretty much roster malpractice. Not as bad as 2022, but still not smart. I would offer them both because I think both of them will decline it, but I can understand not wanting to tie $40M up in these two players. As far how it works roster wise; it's a little more difficult. But trades are going to be necessary one way or the other anyway. For O'Neill, if they can liquidate Yoshida, then you can easily run an outfield of Duran, Rafaela, Abreu (or Anthony, Duran, Rafaela) - with O'Neill occasionally filling in in LF, but mostly being the DH. As for Pivetta; if he were to accept, I'd be tempted to move Bello to the bullpen. Then they could still add (via trade or FA) or back fill with Priester. Actually, now that I think about it; and it is probably against the rules and maybe a little underhanded, but after the season ends, I'd tell Pivetta that if he comes back, he'll be moved to the bullpen full time. Moving Bello to the BP would be roster malpractice if you ask me. 2nd half of this season his FIP is 3.83 xFIP 3.83 with an ERA of 3.78. He's been a perfectly serviceable #3 starter. Yeah, at some point there's a need for him to have a serviceable #3 season - not just one half of a serviceable # 3 season. And as he has been all year, he's two bad starts away from not even having a half a season. But maybe it is more frustration on my part that he hasn't lived up to his hype. |
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Post by RedSoxStats on Sept 9, 2024 14:28:03 GMT -5
The number I came up with after accounting for arbitration with Duran, Houck, and Crawford was $72M under the luxury tax going into the winter.
1. No reason to presume they will go over tax, and 2. They will leave themselves about $10M wiggle room under heading into the season.
So I think the best guess right now would be $60M to play with this winter.
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Post by wanderingdude on Sept 9, 2024 14:28:13 GMT -5
It’s kind of annoying that QO’s have to be given so early into the offseason because i would want to have other moves done before extending it to TON. If you think Roman is up relatively soon next year if not opening day, when healthy we are going to sit one of rafaela, Duran, Wilyer, Roman, or Yoshida everyday. If you throw TON into that mix two of those guys are sitting everyday. I think there’s a solid chance he accepts it and if he does, there has to be several trades involving those guys and that makes the red sox lose leverage. He’s been great this year, but i don’t want to spend the money on him when he’s not a great fit anywhere defensively or a guarantee to play more than 100 games. I’m also completely fine not giving pivetta the QO, we have enough back end starter types and need to be shooting higher. Signing a front line guy and taking a flyer (beuhler?) is much more interesting to me then signing pivetta and another mid tier starter.
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Post by keninten on Sept 9, 2024 14:28:30 GMT -5
Wonder if Pivetta would take a 3 year contract at $13-$15 a year.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Sept 9, 2024 14:40:01 GMT -5
The number I came up with after accounting for arbitration with Duran, Houck, and Crawford was $72M under the luxury tax going into the winter. 1. No reason to presume they will go over tax, and 2. They will leave themselves about $10M wiggle room under heading into the season. So I think the best guess right now would be $60M to play with this winter. Between all the pitching needs they're going to be focused (starting pitching, revamping the bullpen) and whatever gets eaten up by extensions, feels like $60 mil could dry up rather quickly I guess this means no Juan Soto 😔 |
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Post by puzzler on Sept 9, 2024 14:46:04 GMT -5
Wonder if Pivetta would take a 3 year contract at $13-$15 a year. Lugo got 3/$45 at 34 - so there doesn't seem to be any reason that Pivetta couldn't get close to that - understanding that he's not quite as good. Teoscar took a 1/$23M contract over 2/$28M - but basically held out all offseason hoping to get that 3rd year. Guys want to play in the show - so if Pivetta thinks he can get a 3 year deal at $30M+, he's probably not going to accept the QO. He could bet on himself and blow out his arm - I just don't see guys doing that as much anymore. Same thing for O'Neill - nobody wants to be done at age 30 or 31 or 32 and they are all one arm or knee injury away from minor league deal with an opt out date. EDIT: and there's always the possibility that someone is drooling over the Stuff+ and blows all that out of the water. I wouldn't want the Sox to do that. |
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Post by tjb21 on Sept 9, 2024 15:05:11 GMT -5
I think Pivetta is a pretty easy offer. Seth Lugo - 3/45 Lucas Giolito 1/20 + PO Michael Wacha - 2/32 Sean Manaea - 1/14 + PO Nick Martinez - 2/26 Frankie Montas - 1/16 Luis Severino - 1/13 Don't think I would tell Pivetta to accept 1/20 at the beginning of the offseason. Always appreciate your insights, I’m just not sure this is a fair comparison. How many of them had a QO attached? I think Nick is immediately accepting it. Dream scenario: they both get offered and both decline. I just don’t think the odds are high that either would decline, so I wouldn’t offer either. Related question: can you immediately trade a player who accepts the QO? |
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Sept 9, 2024 15:23:24 GMT -5
The number I came up with after accounting for arbitration with Duran, Houck, and Crawford was $72M under the luxury tax going into the winter. 1. No reason to presume they will go over tax, and 2. They will leave themselves about $10M wiggle room under heading into the season. So I think the best guess right now would be $60M to play with this winter. The argument "No reason to presume they will go over tax," while true, is not a reason to presume they cannot go over the tax. |
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 9, 2024 15:26:02 GMT -5
I think Pivetta is a pretty easy offer. Seth Lugo - 3/45 Lucas Giolito 1/20 + PO Michael Wacha - 2/32 Sean Manaea - 1/14 + PO Nick Martinez - 2/26 Frankie Montas - 1/16 Luis Severino - 1/13 Don't think I would tell Pivetta to accept 1/20 at the beginning of the offseason. Always appreciate your insights, I’m just not sure this is a fair comparison. How many of them had a QO attached? I think Nick is immediately accepting it. Dream scenario: they both get offered and both decline. I just don’t think the odds are high that either would decline, so I wouldn’t offer either. Related question: can you immediately trade a player who accepts the QO? None of them had a QO. I think that is probably going to subtract in the neighborhood of $5 million from what teams are going to pay. I would rather have Pivetta than any of those names from last winter (based on info at the time last year), with there being a decent sized gap between Pivetta and the bottom four names. |
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Sept 9, 2024 15:26:47 GMT -5
The only thing it says in the CBA about qualifying offers and if a player accepts is: Don't see anything about not being able to trade them (it seems like it's for all purposes just a 1 year contract?) but could have missed something - www.mlbplayers.com/_files/ugd/4d23dc_d6dfc2344d2042de973e37de62484da5.pdfI'm actually curious how quickly you could theoretically trade someone after you sign them. Like it would never happen because the agent would go ballistic, but I'm not aware of any date where you have to wait until to make trades on a guy under contract? (In the NBA I believe you have to make it through like December/January before signed free agents can be traded) |
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Post by wanderingdude on Sept 9, 2024 15:36:17 GMT -5
The only thing it says in the CBA about qualifying offers and if a player accepts is: Don't see anything about not being able to trade them (it seems like it's for all purposes just a 1 year contract?) but could have missed something - www.mlbplayers.com/_files/ugd/4d23dc_d6dfc2344d2042de973e37de62484da5.pdfI'm actually curious how quickly you could theoretically trade someone after you sign them. Like it would never happen because the agent would go ballistic, but I'm not aware of any date where you have to wait until to make trades on a guy under contract? (In the NBA I believe you have to make it through like December/January before signed free agents can be traded) It looks like in the CBA the player has the right to refuse any trade before June 15th. |
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 9, 2024 21:25:36 GMT -5
TON you could talk me into it. For Pivetta though - has he even had a season where he’s been worth 20 mil? I could see a world where an analytically driven team jumps on Nick for a modest deal and with some tweaks finally gets his performance to match the Stuff, which would be a bummer. But if they’re going into next year with like Houck, Bello, Kutter plus like (pick one of Giolito/Whitlock/Priester/Fitts, etc), it feels like you kinda need someone with a higher floor than Nick Pivetta? He's had three of them and might have had one this year but for the time on the injured list. |
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Post by blizzards39 on Sept 9, 2024 22:09:30 GMT -5
80% on TON. We need RH. If he accepts i would say Masa is all but gonzo. And id say its 50/50 at best he accepts
50/50 on Pivetta. But i think the current FO passes. Id say pivetta would 50/50 accept. Problem is the Sox need a #1. Have enough pivetta like pitchers. One angle is that id Pivetta is qualified may crawford or bello of more unlikely Houck is traded as part of package for a #1.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 9, 2024 22:16:39 GMT -5
TON you could talk me into it. For Pivetta though - has he even had a season where he’s been worth 20 mil? I could see a world where an analytically driven team jumps on Nick for a modest deal and with some tweaks finally gets his performance to match the Stuff, which would be a bummer. But if they’re going into next year with like Houck, Bello, Kutter plus like (pick one of Giolito/Whitlock/Priester/Fitts, etc), it feels like you kinda need someone with a higher floor than Nick Pivetta? He's had three of them and might have had one this year but for the time on the injured list. I think the real question is how much value over the QO offer he could deliver. He was good for that from 2021 through 2023. For a possible one year QO, I think he's worth it. If he's looking for something longer, he likely won't get $20M/year, but he would get more guaranteed money. |
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Post by rhswanzey on Sept 9, 2024 23:12:48 GMT -5
131 players have received the qualifying offer, ever, and 118 have declined it
Fun fact: Tyler O’Neill’s top B-R comp through age 28, as well as overall, is old friend Wily Mo Pena
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Sept 10, 2024 6:40:33 GMT -5
It’s a no brainer to offer O’Neill. When healthy he’s been a force. He’s going to get a better deal than 1/20 on the open market. The only hesitation from the Sox would be in the unlikely event that he did accept, they’d be stuck with 20 million allocated to him, which they probably won’t want to do. Pivetta I’m fairly certain would accept the QO and if both accepted it would leave the Sox with about 20 million to spend if we’re looking at this years payroll as the barometer. If they want to go lower for some reason then they can’t risk either of these guys accepting.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Sept 10, 2024 6:42:17 GMT -5
He's had three of them and might have had one this year but for the time on the injured list. I think the real question is how much value over the QO offer he could deliver. He was good for that from 2021 through 2023. For a possible one year QO, I think he's worth it. If he's looking for something longer, he likely won't get $20M/year, but he would get more guaranteed money. For someone with O’Neill’s injury history, the guaranteed money will be key. 3/55 would be more valuable to him than 1/20. |
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Post by incandenza on Sept 10, 2024 7:13:26 GMT -5
131 players have received the qualifying offer, ever, and 118 have declined it Fun fact: Tyler O’Neill’s top B-R comp through age 28, as well as overall, is old friend Wily Mo Pena Career 93 OPS+ and -1.2 bWAR Wily Mo Pena? How the heck is that the top comp for O'Neill and his 118 OPS+ and 12.8 fWAR?
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Post by nonothing on Sept 10, 2024 8:40:23 GMT -5
I think the real question is how much value over the QO offer he could deliver. He was good for that from 2021 through 2023. For a possible one year QO, I think he's worth it. If he's looking for something longer, he likely won't get $20M/year, but he would get more guaranteed money. For someone with O’Neill’s injury history, the guaranteed money will be key. 3/55 would be more valuable to him than 1/20. 42/3 seems like the *potential* deal range for a bat like this in FA based on last yr (same for Gurriel and Soler). I agree guaranteed money will be big for him, but I think his market w/ QO attached could prove limited, maybe even gets stuck in that limited to teams who have given up draft comp for somebody better first quandary, so he only costs the signing team later draft capital. Is there any reason the Red Sox cannot offer him a QO (so that he can remove chance of it in future), but then offer him (again he knows it is coming in advance of acceptance) an extension of a yr provided that he accepts the QO? The idea is in the end he gets say 30/2, so he gets more guaranteed money and higher AAV than Soler or Gurriel, and we get him for 2yrs at 15M AAV? Maybe if he goes to FA - he could get another $12M. But if he loses musical chairs, he gets $5-15M/1 (depending on who has a seat when he finally makes a decision). This situation is tough when guys with QOs have to wait out the top of the market, which actually hurts their ability to get the financial deal they could otherwise have gotten earlier in FA. If we thought he could also play 1B also, I would be tempted to sign for 2yrs as OF/1B/DH in $15 AAV range. Curious if this might be either allowable (to help him remove QO possibility in future, which is something we can afford to give him) or if a QO accept/extend would cause some type problem? Also of course feel free to chime in that you would never do this. Wouldn't be a fun day without some of that. |
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Post by puzzler on Sept 10, 2024 9:30:00 GMT -5
For someone with O’Neill’s injury history, the guaranteed money will be key. 3/55 would be more valuable to him than 1/20. I agree guaranteed money will be big for him, but I think his market w/ QO attached could prove limited, maybe even gets stuck in that limited to teams who have given up draft comp for somebody better first quandary, so he only costs the signing team later draft capital. Is there any reason the Red Sox cannot offer him a QO (so that he can remove chance of it in future), but then offer him (again he knows it is coming in advance of acceptance) an extension of a yr provided that he accepts the QO? The idea is in the end he gets say 30/2, so he gets more guaranteed money and higher AAV than Soler or Gurriel, and we get him for 2yrs at 15M AAV? Maybe if he goes to FA - he could get another $12M. But if he loses musical chairs, he gets $5-15M/1 (depending on who has a seat when he finally makes a decision). This situation is tough when guys with QOs have to wait out the top of the market, which actually hurts their ability to get the financial deal they could otherwise have gotten earlier in FA. If we thought he could also play 1B also, I would be tempted to sign for 2yrs as OF/1B/DH in $15 AAV range. Curious if this might be either allowable (to help him remove QO possibility in future, which is something we can afford to give him) or if a QO accept/extend would cause some type problem? Also of course feel free to chime in that you would never do this. Wouldn't be a fun day without some of that. There seems to be a pretty huge disconnect on this site about what O'Neill's value is and his results. I understand the injury risk - but in 99 games he's been so much better than either Gurriel or Soler. He is right now probably the best RH bat that will be available in free agency. Maybe Teoscar has more demand because he doesn't have the same injury risk and maybe his defense is a little better (not really sure of that) - but there's no better hitter going to be available. For example - any team that was looking to potentially add Pete Alonso would be stupid not to check in on O'Neill unless they just desperately need a first baseman. And if O'Neill IS a potential first base man, then that just increases his market even further which leads me to... ...the idea that a) he will accept the QO or b) that he will be forced to accept a 2 year deal both seem pretty laughable to me. I would be offering him 3/$45-50 before you even get to the QO. If he has to test the market then you move on to Teoscar. |
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