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Post by tjb21 on Jul 12, 2024 11:41:29 GMT -5
You know, none of us knows for certain that Breslow doesn't have the cojones to, say, trade Abreu, Yoshida, Cespedes, and Bleis for Tatis, who then comes in to play SS this season, pushing Rafaela back to CF, and then moves back to RF in 2025. I would probably do that trade at this point. I don't think the Padres would though. Same. Padres would need one of the 3 larger names involved.
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Post by tjb21 on Jul 10, 2024 13:39:42 GMT -5
My top 3 in the Sox vicinity is Montgomery, Griffin, and Kurtz. Doesn’t Griffin seem pretty committed to LSU? Yes, and I'd be a little surprised if he turned down slot at #12.
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Post by tjb21 on Jul 9, 2024 12:40:59 GMT -5
Playoff odds at 42%. What does 2 of Meidroth, Yorke, Jordan, Paulino, Lugo get you? That’s the group I’m looking to deal from. Low minors guys are not getting traded as often as they used to and I’m looking to add pitching depth, not deal from it. Chris and Ian discussed this exact question on the newest SP podcast. Another great listen!
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Post by tjb21 on Jul 9, 2024 12:39:25 GMT -5
My order of preference among these players*: 1. Travis Bazzana 2. Trey Yesavage 3. Jac Caglianone 4. Cam Caminiti 5. James Tibbs III 6. Chase Burns
7. Nick Kurtz
8. JJ Weatherholt 9. Charlie Condon 10. Bryce Rainer 11. Konnor Griffin 12. Hagen Smith 13. Braden Montgomery 14. Christian Moore *sole criterion: coolness of their names
Bazzana is at the top for me as well.
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Post by tjb21 on Jul 8, 2024 11:35:46 GMT -5
My top 4 @ 12 are (1) Griffin, (2) Rainer, (3) Yesavage, and (4) Caminiti. I’d like to go BPA and think getting any of these 4 into the system provides immense value. I would add Kurtz here. Griffin #1 to me, and the order of others less clear for me, but these are the names I like with the 12th pick. All in on Griffin.
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Post by tjb21 on Jul 1, 2024 14:41:45 GMT -5
Regarding our unsigned free agents. 1) Pivetta I would keep and make the QO. That way we could end up with a valuable 2nd round pick or if Pivetta accepts only a one year commitment to him. 2) O'Neil is fun, hits some bombs, but he is expendable. If a team sees a fit and we could get an interesting prospect I would do it. 3) Jansen and Martin are not expendable in my mind, regardless of where the Sox are in the race. A solid back end of the pen is so important for holding leads. The still young core of starting pitchers need to have the lead protected when they come out of games. If Liam Hendricks is himself, then we know who the 2025 closer will be. As far as buying this deadline, I still would want it to be for player(s) that can help in 2024 and at least 2025 as well. Diaz from the Rays is the best idea I have seen floated recently, but the Rays are hanging in there so far. In response to your point #1: I'd estimate it would be a 4th rounder, because I still (naively) believe they will go over the LTT next year. I keep looking at the roster and can't see both O'Neil and Ref on it after the deadline. Same with Hamilton and Valdez. Same with Jansen and Martin. One of each seems likely to be moved. The buy/sell approach seems to line up well with the roster construction.
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Post by tjb21 on May 20, 2024 12:10:30 GMT -5
In a world in which O'Neill walks, Story gets healthy, and Anthony isn't ready, I wouldn't mind Rafaela in right with Abreu in left. That's interesting. Do you like that alignment more than Duran, Rafaela, Abreu (L to R)?
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Post by tjb21 on May 18, 2024 21:15:09 GMT -5
Good for Ryan. Looking forward to his debut this summer.
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Post by tjb21 on Apr 30, 2024 14:45:18 GMT -5
Love it! Campbell making a big jump interests me. Would love to hear the reasoning Alex Speier said he was “hitting the snot out of the ball” in camp Was a segment on a SP podcast, where a front office member mentioned Campbell's rise and where they thought he would figure into the end of 24 season SP rankings. IIRC, was the same FO member who predicted the Anthony rocket ship.
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Post by tjb21 on Jan 3, 2024 17:23:34 GMT -5
You can offer a QO to a player that declines a player option. Carlos Rodon last year was one example This is my thinking too. I don’t see how his contract could be structured in a way where he couldn’t be offered a QO.
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Post by tjb21 on Jan 3, 2024 10:28:14 GMT -5
Eh. Failing to spend $200k > spending $1.2M on someone who wasn't going to pan out. Well said.
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Post by tjb21 on Jan 2, 2024 21:54:05 GMT -5
Interesting player. Wonder if he’s DFA’d to sneak through waivers at some point before the season begins.
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Post by tjb21 on Jan 2, 2024 17:49:52 GMT -5
You are correct. It still struck me as a bearish take on both Grissom and the Red Sox' offseason approach. Like, Clemens says this: ...but I am pretty sure this is not going to be their opening day rotation.
And he says this: ...but they also traded away Verdugo, an everyday player, which by the same logic would imply that they have a deep roster. (And it's not even clear that the Red Sox plan to use O'Neill as an everyday player.)
IMO I would take any analysis that lumps Bello and Pivetta as basically the same with a large grain of indifference from the writer. Or a homework free assignment from the writer. Not saying Bello is the next coming but he's young and already much better than Pivetta. Comparing Bello to Pivetta in 2023: Nick had a lower ERA, xERA, FIP, xFIP, WHIP and struck out ~4 more batters per 9 than Bello. Bello’s BABIP was much higher, which wasn’t helped by the leaky defense. Pivetta was better than Bello in 2023, any way you look at it. With Sale traded, Paxton is a logical fit for the roster. I’d be fine going that path. And welcome to Boston, Grissom!
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Post by tjb21 on Dec 30, 2023 21:55:31 GMT -5
Whew. What a trade.
Immediate thoughts: Which 2 from Grissom, Yorke, Story and Mayer will be on the team in 2 seasons?
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Post by tjb21 on Dec 6, 2023 15:24:33 GMT -5
Well looks like the Red Sox did get a Rule 5 guy as the Ryan Ammons trade was for Justin Slaten who the Mets took (Mets picked ahead of the Red Sox). Interesting arm and interesting trade. Things continue to look more bleak for Mata making the roster.
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Post by tjb21 on Oct 9, 2023 13:21:17 GMT -5
In no particular order:
1. Felix Cepeda 2. Justin Riemer 3. Zack Penrod 4. Natanael Yuten 5. Yordanny Monegro
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Post by tjb21 on Sept 9, 2023 12:37:39 GMT -5
The Romero injury (and slight fall) bums me out for the kid.
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Post by tjb21 on Sept 1, 2023 12:16:39 GMT -5
I don't really see the point of signing any FA beyond a 1-2 year deal this offseason. A large batch of our legit prospects (Mayer, Anthony, Teel, Yorke) won't be really with us until 2025. I don't see the point of signing an SP that will be in decline on a large deal when those guys are hitting their prime I think this has to be the offseason of trades for us No complaining if they follow what you want then.
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Post by tjb21 on Aug 28, 2023 13:30:22 GMT -5
The players you listed all left their respective teams via free agency rather than trade. I guess the fact that Mookie left via trade makes it much worse in the eyes of the masses?? They had to trade him because they weren't willing to pay him the 360 million plus that it would have required. They wanted him for a certain figure which was on the 300 - 320 range and they werent going to go higher. They set their limit. Knowing they'd have to go beyond it made sense to trade him than lose him for a pick, which is hard to argue. They knew he wasn't coming back on a hometown discount and they werent willing to go to the top of the market which 300 - 320 was never going to be. What is easy to argue is that the Sox should have been willing to go higher. That should be painfully obvious by now. The Sox drew the line 19 years ago and it cost them A-Rod, which was baffling given how close they were. But that worked out swimmingly because Manny was Manny, A-Rod was A-Rod, the actual future Nomar deal worked out, and they thankfully hung onto Lester. This time of not doing what it would take to get a deal done has hurt them. Oh, Verdugo and Wong are good for 1 year of Mookie, but I'm not at all convinced they wouldn't be a better team then, now, and later had Mookie stayed. Verdugo is a good player who'll probably never reach the ceiling of what his talent is and he'll be gone sooner than later and Wong is a useful placeholder until Teel is ready. Mookie is right on track for Cooperstown and I have no idea when we will next see the Sox develop or even acquire a 5 tool player like that with the 6th tool of plate discipline and 7th tool of a good head on his shoulders and excel at all 7 tools. Might not be in our lifetimes. He is a special player, and hes certainly a part of the reason the Dodgers won almost 2/3 of their games and was certainly a big reason the Sox did in 2018 as well. Definitely a guy you extend for and build your franchise around. .188/.316/.250 in the 2018 ALDS .217/.280/.304 in the 2018 ALCS .217/.308/.391 in the 2018 WS Mookie stunk at the plate in the 2018 playoffs, after being the MVP during the regular season. He's been meh for his career at the plate in the playoffs too: .264/.345/.395 (.741 OPS) SSS and such.
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Post by tjb21 on Aug 24, 2023 7:21:33 GMT -5
Whitlock's catch was such a great play by him. Seemed to energize the entire team! Great win, indeed.
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Post by tjb21 on Aug 18, 2023 11:59:38 GMT -5
It's not a fix to the offense but the defense has been awful this year, perhaps the answer to a better 2024 season is to prioritize pitching and defense and hope for a better year hitting from who they currently have. Rafaella in CF and not having Hernandez the butcher at SS is certainly a start to the defense. Maybe slide Duran over to LF and play Yoshida at DH more or less full time. That would probably make the OF defense night and day better. Still would like to see some sort of shot in the arm to this offense in the way of a good RHH slugger. This is the simple way to improve in 2024. The defense.
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Post by tjb21 on Aug 17, 2023 14:38:06 GMT -5
Dang. Always rooting for Duran. Keep getting the support you need!
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Post by tjb21 on Aug 17, 2023 14:00:35 GMT -5
should Yoshida becomes DH in 24, I would like to see Dalbec get another go to see if he can get it together, and possibly have some trade value. Wilyer would the second LF/RF to come up when needed Are you suggesting Dalbec in LF? 1B and DH are taken in your scenario.
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Post by tjb21 on Aug 16, 2023 14:46:16 GMT -5
Again, I could not agree more in the aggregate.. I believe at this point it has even been objectively proven. That being said, do you have a list of the teams that have gone with the "throw a bunch of relievers at the wall rather than a steady 4-5 man rotation" and won a World Series? The Tampa Bay Rays made that formula work for the better part of 15 years. And they have not won a World Series, and have won the AL Pennant once since 2008. It makes complete sense why they went that direction (they are a below mid-market team, spending-wise). As in, I don't know if they've ever crossed the $80 million threshold in any season, in terms of active payroll... But the Dodgers and Astros are more in line with Red Sox spending, and their formula with drafting/international signing pitchers seems to be working tremendously for them. And they essentially stick with 4-5 man rotations. And they have 3 World Series and about 10-11 Pennants between them in the last 6 years. The Astros' homegrown starters ( Javier, Garcia, and Valdez) had fangraphs prospect grades of 45+, 45, and 40 respectively. They did a really good job of developing those guys, but it's not a case of drafting/signing a bunch of blue chippers. And Javier has been meh this year + his vFA is over a full MPH slower than 2022. (mostly) Just never know with pitchers.
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Post by tjb21 on Aug 14, 2023 16:25:06 GMT -5
Piggybacking on a discussion from the Song thread, the 40-man is full, plus 4 players on the 60-day IL. Duvall, Paxton and Mondesi become free agents. No way they pick up Kluber's option. Thinking they won't pick up Joely's either - they can maybe get him cheaper if they want him to stay. Turner's option is designed for him not to pick it up, which I think is the most likely scenario even if he wants to stay, but let's say he sticks around one way or another and call it 39. Llovera, Garza, and Barraclough are likely DFA fodder. Maybe Robertson. They'll need at least one SP and probably seek a 2B. But otherwise there's not a ton they HAVE to do. They're going to need to explore deals involving any of the guys from the Dalbec, Valdez, Abreu, Hamilton, Reyes, and Urias group who aren't going to make the MLB roster. It's going to be tough to protect more than a handful of R5 guys. So keep that in mind when projecting who they add. Are Mills, Kelly, Garza, and Robertson worth a 40-man vs some of the additional Rule 5s they might add? I was mainly think Kelly and Mills. Not a Rule 5 comment, but would Abreu/Refsnyder combo be a replacement for Verdugo? Could? Nah. Should? Nah.
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