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Post by rafael on Jul 24, 2015 14:20:52 GMT -5
I don't think he would hang up at that package, but I don't think he would do that deal either. I guess he would try to change Stank or Marrero to pieces he likes more and he thinks are undervalued. Of course, I'm assuming that neither Stank nor Marrero are players he likes.
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Post by rafael on Jul 24, 2015 11:44:05 GMT -5
What a great pitching matchup tonight. Not only tonight, but for the three games of the series.
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Post by rafael on Jul 24, 2015 10:18:32 GMT -5
If the Red Sox are going to the FA market to add SPs then they should try to sign the younger guys: Latos, Leake and Brett Anderson. They will probably sign for less than 50 million and we get their prime years. Next year's rotation should be at least as good as it has been this year, perhaps even better, so no major addition is needed.
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Post by rafael on Jul 23, 2015 22:21:45 GMT -5
Breslow in a tied game? That's a good way to tank.
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Post by rafael on Jul 23, 2015 21:28:12 GMT -5
Bad outing by Miley, too many walks. Ogando has a serious home run problem, before this game his HR/FB rate was at 20%. Other than that he has been a serviceable reliever.
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Post by rafael on Jul 23, 2015 12:14:44 GMT -5
Kazmir traded to the Astros. Any chance he starts tonight?
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Post by rafael on Jul 22, 2015 22:31:47 GMT -5
btw, it may be time to extend Xander now/all star break. Boras client who will be a free agent at age 26. They should try to lock him up. Boras will want 10 years, and likely AAV of $23-25M. Or you can watch him spend his prime in pinstripes. Extremely premature and silly to be talking about this now. Shouldn't any player who you consider signing to a long term deal prove they can be successful for at least 1.5 years to 2 yrs straight first? That's a rhetorical question. I really disagree with the notion that to sign a guy to a long term deal he must have a good track record in the majors. The Jon Singleton extension should be a model to follow as the risk is minimum and the upside is enormous.
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Post by rafael on Jul 22, 2015 22:27:28 GMT -5
Benintendi has hit 24 HRs in 79 games this year, considering his college season and his pro season. That means he is ''in pace'' for 46 HRs in 150 games, which is pretty good.
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Post by rafael on Jul 21, 2015 18:16:22 GMT -5
Just to be clear, I'm not opposed to a Holt trade, I just think that in the case the major piece of the deal coming to the Red Sox is an arm it should be at someone who is more likely to be a starter than not, which doesn't seem to be the case with Finnegan. Who are some starting pitchers that other organizations will trade straight-up for Holt? Your thoughts would be appreciated. Zack Wheeler, Vincent Velazquez. Wheeler would make a lot of sense as the Mets need a middle-infielder. Wheeler has way more upside, but by trading him they get rid of the uncertainty of the TJ surgery and get a player in an area of need for a playoff run that is also controlled for more 4 years.
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Post by rafael on Jul 21, 2015 15:13:35 GMT -5
One thing about Finnegan that really makes me wary is that he is being developed as a bullpen arm. The Royals have a pretty bad rotation (25th in WAR, 22th in FIP, 29th in xFIP), are a small-market team that can't afford high-priced arms and have a very good bullpen (2nd in WAR, 2nd in FIP, 8th in xFIP). Perhaps even more importantly is that they have 8 RP with more than 14 IP and a FIP smaller than 3.50, which means they have depth in the bullpen.
Therefore, if the decision of developing him as a relief pitcher is based on the need of the major league club, it seems highly questionable to me. If it is not based on need, the Royals don't believe he has a shot at starting, being a disappointing return in the event of a Holt trade.
Just to be clear, I'm not opposed to a Holt trade, I just think that in the case the major piece of the deal coming to the Red Sox is an arm it should be at someone who is more likely to be a starter than not, which doesn't seem to be the case with Finnegan.
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Post by rafael on Jul 20, 2015 11:37:13 GMT -5
E-rod was once in a lifetime deal. He wasn't even the O's top pitching prospect. It just work out for us. Nobody is giving us an E-rod upside prospect for Koji. He wasn't the only top prospect that was offered for Miller. Kiley McDaniel in his preseason's top 200 prospects says that Detroit offered a package headlined by Jake Thompson who was #29 on that same list. It's not that I think we would get a similar return by trading Uehara, but that was far from being a lifetime deal.
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Post by rafael on Jul 19, 2015 18:50:07 GMT -5
I think that Holt is worth more than Finnegan + a C prospect. If he's a 3 WAR player going forward, then he'll be worth 13.5 WAR until he's a FA. If the C prospect is expected to be worth 2 WAR, Finnegan has to be worth at least 11.5 WAR in his control years for the deal to be worthwhile, ignoring Holt's versatility and the greater value of present wins. That's around 1.9 WAR per year, too much for a reliever. Of course, if the FO thinks Finnegan is a starter then that deal may be ok, but he is being used as a reliever in KC and many people project him to be in the bullpen long-term. I'm not sure it's reasonable to project Holt as a three-win player going forward. If you drop that to 2.5 wins and project Finnegan as a starter, the math comes out a lot closer even if you do include a discount rate (i.e., weigh present wins more). The math I did was wrong, I assumed that Finnegan still had 6 years of control. If you assume that Holt is a 2.5 win player going forward then Finnegan needs 1.9 WAR per year to be worth it. I agree with you that if he could perform well as a starter he would be worth it. Wouldn't need to be much better than Miley has been this year so far. But if KC with their small budget and their bad rotation are not developing him as a starter, I don't see him being a starter long-term somewhere else.
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Post by rafael on Jul 19, 2015 16:59:32 GMT -5
I would start feeling out the Padres. Holt Bradley an Owens Barnes type for Kimbrell while trying to pry away Ross? Ross who should command a hefty raise in the winter. Complicated trades are less likely to get done, and if Holt is traded at the deadline it will likely be to a contender. SD may conduct a fire sale but BOS is less likely to include Holt in such a trade than trade him. KC, in a deal for Brandon Finnegan and a C prospect, sounds about right. Finnegan can immediately slot into the bullpen and has some rotation upside. Holt will be a min player through 2016 and arb eligible in 2017-19, so there is no rush in trading him, except that his value may never be higher. Finnegan will be a min player through 2017 (one year more than Holt) and is five years younger than Holt. I think that Holt is worth more than Finnegan + a C prospect. If he's a 3 WAR player going forward, then he'll be worth 13.5 WAR until he's a FA. If the C prospect is expected to be worth 2 WAR, Finnegan has to be worth at least 11.5 WAR in his control years for the deal to be worthwhile, ignoring Holt's versatility and the greater value of present wins. That's around 1.9 WAR per year, too much for a reliever. Of course, if the FO thinks Finnegan is a starter then that deal may be ok, but he is being used as a reliever in KC and many people project him to be in the bullpen long-term.
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Post by rafael on Jul 19, 2015 14:52:15 GMT -5
I think it would be a good idea to trade Uehara for a quality prospect, quite like the Miller trade last year and at the same time trading for another quality reliever by using our spare parts (Cecchini, Marrero, etc.). I think it's unlikely that it would happen, but it's a possibility.
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Post by rafael on Jul 18, 2015 16:45:12 GMT -5
Let's say Trout suffers a career-ending injury tomorrow (knock on wood), would he be a HOFer? I'd say yes.
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Post by rafael on Jul 18, 2015 16:41:25 GMT -5
Why is Steen in the GCL? As a kid from high school that was drafted last year, wasn't he supposed to be at Lowell or Greenville?
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Post by rafael on Jul 17, 2015 20:04:00 GMT -5
Not to mention that with Hernandez getting the call to the Pawsox, Lin finally gets the chance to advance to Portland. He's the one am curious to see how well performs against a bit better pitching over the last month and a half of the season. In all levels from Greenvile to the major league team there is an intriguing young shortstop. Bogaerts, Marrero and Hernandez, Lin, Dubon and Guerra. All of them should be able to stick at the position long term according to scouting reports.
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Post by rafael on Jul 17, 2015 19:27:09 GMT -5
Has anyone seen this Hernandez kid play? The guy is on fire.
Take a look at the last few tweets from the SoxProspects staff: Benintendi triples, Hernandez and JBJ go yard, Ian praising Guerra defense and Moncada swing... This is a fun system to follow and I'm very excited for the next five to ten years of Red Sox baseball.
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Post by rafael on Jul 16, 2015 20:07:47 GMT -5
If San Diego is going to blow it up, I'd be targeting Ross and/or Myers. We have plenty of assets that would be great additions for them, although those two won't come cheap by any means. They really need a CF badly, as well as a long term SS and 2B/3B. I don't think they are going to blow up, they should have a good roster next year if they trade just Upton, Kimbrel and Kennedy/Cashner. No need to trade either Ross or Myers. If they do make Ross available, I'd be all over him.
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Post by rafael on Jul 16, 2015 19:59:03 GMT -5
Kind of ridiculous to ban someone for using a drug that does not bring any benefit. Anyway, bad decision-making by Kopech.
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Post by rafael on Jul 9, 2015 13:37:55 GMT -5
I think that they could give the bulk of the playing time at 1B to Holt or use De Aza/Nava as platoon mates. Not sure if any of those would be huge upgrades to Nap, perhaps no upgrade at all, but a good middle reliever would be an enormous boost to our very bad bullpen.
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Post by rafael on Jul 8, 2015 19:08:49 GMT -5
Why is Uehara in the dugout?
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Post by rafael on Jul 8, 2015 16:41:31 GMT -5
I was wondering which teams would be good fits for a Napoli trade, so I did a little research using Fangraphs stats to see what teams may be looking for upgrades at 1B and DH. I looked only at teams that are 5.0 games back or less to a playoff spot. The following teams' 1B/DH offensive production has been below-average by wRC+ :
Angels DH -0.3 WAR 71 wRC+ Astros DH -0.2 WAR 92 wRC+ Astros 1B 0.1 WAR 92 wRC+ Cardinals 1B 0.1 WAR 82 wRC+ Nationals 1B -0.6 WAR 81 wRC+ Pirates 1B -1.0 WAR 91 wRC+ Rays 1B -2.2 WAR 68 wRC+ Tigers DH -0.4 WAR 95 wRC+ Twins 1B -0.3 WAR 92 wRC+
Of the above teams, the Astros, Cardinals, Nationals are leading their division, while the Angels, Pirates and Twins are ahead in the wild card race. It's hard to see any of those teams being sellers at the deadline and likely all of them will be buyers. It's unlikely that the Nats, Tigers and Twins are going to be looking for a 1B/DH upgrade, as Ryan Zimmerman and Joe Mauer man 1B for the Nats and Twins respectively and the Tigers have a Miggy/V-Mart combo at 1B and DH.
If the Sox are out of the playoff race by the deadline, then he'd probably fetch a return quite similar, albeit better to what the Twins got in the Kendrys Morales trade last July, as Napoli has hit better so far this season that Morales did last season at the time he was traded. That is the only trade in the past couple of years of a struggling 1B/DH close to the deadline. If we are in the race by the deadline, something that is looking more likely every day that goes by, I would like to see Napoli traded for middle relief pitching, as it is IMO the biggest problem with the Red Sox and would not cost any top prospects. In that case, it would be highly unlikely to strike a trade with the Rays. To such a trade occur, the other team in the trade must have a good bullpen, otherwise they would be closing a hole but opening another. Here is the bullpen production of the teams mentioned above:
Angels 2.1 WAR 3.38 FIP 3.90 xFIP (20th in xFIP) Astros 2.0 WAR 3.40 FIP 3.38 xFIP (2nd in xFIP) Cardinals 2.7 WAR 3.27 FIP 3.72 xFIP (15th in xFIP) Nationals 2.3 WAR 3.32 FIP 3.54 xFIP (9th in xFIP) Pirates 2.0 WAR 3.36 FIP 3.50 xFIP (7th in xFIP) Rays -0.4 WAR 4.32 FIP 3.99 xFIP (25th in xFIP) Tigers -0.5 WAR 4.20 FIP 4.27 xFIP (29th in xFIP) Twins 0.7 WAR 4.08 FIP 4.32 xFIP (30th in xFIP)
So the Rays, Tigers and Twins are definitely not fits. That leaves the Astros and Pirates as the best fits and the Angels and Cardinals as reasonable fits too.
English is not my first language, so i apologize if it is not as good as of the average poster in this forum. Feel free to criticize my analysis.
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Post by rafael on Jul 8, 2015 13:23:01 GMT -5
Seems to be a poor man's Marrero, good to great glove, questionable bat. Has had a similar offensive season so far this year as Marrero had last season in Portland.
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Post by rafael on Jul 7, 2015 11:00:38 GMT -5
It's the all-STAR, not the all-WAR ballot. And it happens once per calendar year, with voting starting in April, which could certainly be read as including last year's second half. I just don't think it's so cut and dried that a good player the last couple months should be an automatic selection. Kluber was a bigger snub than Mookie. WAR shows you who has played better so far this season, so it is the best way to choose players that should be there by what they have done on the playing field. I voted about 10 times in the last few weeks and voted using fWAR every time, to be sure not to take in consideration if certain player is more famous or more charismatic than one who has played better in the last few months.
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