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Post by rafael on Nov 11, 2015 18:51:35 GMT -5
That Korean closer is someone I would take a flyer on if my scouts liked him. He will probably be undervalued due to fear that his stuff does not play up in the majors, and he has probably closer upside. Even if he fails, the financial burden would not be big enough to be a major issue going forward.
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Post by rafael on Nov 9, 2015 8:24:10 GMT -5
The idea of trading Owens or Margot for Chapman or Kimbrel is insane. The former is a rental while the latter is signed to an expensive contract for a reliever. I wouldn't do it, but you're not getting Kimbrel or Chapman for a Marrero and a Bryce Brentz type. It's going to take more than that. The Red Sox would be competing with many other teams for their services which in a trade market would probably put the Sox in an uncomfortable position of having to offer more than they'd want to, so they probably won't. Not trying to be rude, but I know that. The thing about bullpen construction is that you don't need to make splashy signings or make big trades to improve it dramatically, as they usually backfire due to the volatility of relievers or injuries. For example, trading for a subsidized Papelbon and adding an under-the-radar quality middle-reliever would go a long way into making the Red Sox bullpen an above-average one (considering Tazawa and Uehara are still good). Those moves wouldn't require a lot of money or parting with top prospects. Something that needs to be consider is that Dombrowski has been bad at building bullpens, so he might go for a guy with less uncertainty, like Chapman or Kimbrel.
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Post by rafael on Nov 8, 2015 18:54:26 GMT -5
The idea of trading Owens or Margot for Chapman or Kimbrel is insane. The former is a rental while the latter is signed to an expensive contract for a reliever.
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Post by rafael on Nov 8, 2015 10:00:08 GMT -5
Travis played last night and scored a run in an extra base hit by Jeimer Candelario. I also don't have the box score, so I don't know how he got on base.
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Post by rafael on Nov 6, 2015 19:50:49 GMT -5
If we are going to trade for a Nationals' SP, I'd rather trade for Gio Gonzalez. Miley + Marrero for Gio + Papelbon(entire contract) might get it done. The Red Sox get a #3 pitcher with excellent track record and an established closer in Papelbon. The Nationals get rid of a major headache in Papelbon while reducing their 2016 payroll in 17M. Miley would be appealing as an affordable inning-eater #4 with some upside left and Marrero could serve as an utility man for the Nats. Steamer projects Gio Gonzalez to be 2.6 WAR, which I find a bit odd, as he was worth more than 3 fWAR each of the past six seasons. If that his expected production then it doesn't make much sense to trade for him. Gonzalez has a ridiculously team friendly contract in which he earns no more than $12 million all the way through 2018 (club option) so he isn't going anywhere. Like Gonzalez, Miley has a team friendly contract and is younger. They also get rid of Papelbon and his entire contract. Quite possibly Miley + Marrero doesn't get it done, but it's not a ridiculous offer at all.
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Post by rafael on Nov 6, 2015 7:33:06 GMT -5
If we are going to trade for a Nationals' SP, I'd rather trade for Gio Gonzalez. Miley + Marrero for Gio + Papelbon(entire contract) might get it done. The Red Sox get a #3 pitcher with excellent track record and an established closer in Papelbon. The Nationals get rid of a major headache in Papelbon while reducing their 2016 payroll in 17M. Miley would be appealing as an affordable inning-eater #4 with some upside left and Marrero could serve as an utility man for the Nats.
Steamer projects Gio Gonzalez to be 2.6 WAR, which I find a bit odd, as he was worth more than 3 fWAR each of the past six seasons. If that his expected production then it doesn't make much sense to trade for him.
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Post by rafael on Oct 30, 2015 12:04:46 GMT -5
Anyone knows where to find minor league %GB rates for pitchers and LHP/RHP splits for hitters? Sorry to bring it up in this thread, but I wanted to check whether Owens low %GB rate in the majors this season was consistent with his minor league numbers. That would be a factor in deciding if I'm comfortable with him being included in a package for a SP.
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Post by rafael on Oct 29, 2015 7:37:21 GMT -5
I'm the only one in this board that likes Bartolo Colon as an offseason target? If he replicates his recent performance(he was worth at least 2.4 fWAR in each of the last five seasons) he would likely be a win better than our current #5. Also, he would come cheap in the FA market. I guess that a 1 year - 10M deal with incentives or a club option would be enough to sign him. The Red Sox need a TOR starter. How does Colon qualify? They got plenty of guys for the middle to back half of the rotation. They don't need to spend $10 million to get another one. As it is, I wasn't too thrilled with Colon in 2008 when the Sox actually did have him. He could have been an asset in the post-season but either he got hurt or had other issues and the Sox had to go with Wakefield as the #4 starter (and he got pounded in Game 4 of the ALCS by TB). The Red Sox do not need a top of the rotation starter, they need to improve the team in all possible ways. Acquiring an established TOR pitcher this offseason would probably be counterproductive in the long-term, as it would require trading multiple top prospects or signing a contract that most likely will clog the payroll at some point while losing the 12th pick on the draft, depending on the pitcher. The best option is to sign or trade (most likely) for a pitcher who is mid-rotation nowadays with the potential to be something more, but if no pitcher that fits that description is available, go for a pitcher with a decent track record who will eat innings at a bargain price. IMO, Colon moving to the AL won't be followed by a disaster. He has been above average or average both in FIP- and xFIP- for the aforementioned past seasons and his %GB rates are decent. His age is obviously a concern, but we have the depth (Kelly, Owens, Johnson) to replace him if he is toast. I get why people don't like Colon: he has kind of a bad history in Boston, he's in his forties, is the unsexiest player in baseball and doesn't have much upside. However, I think he is a good fallback option to improve the rotation this offseason.
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Post by rafael on Oct 28, 2015 22:08:25 GMT -5
I'm the only one in this board that likes Bartolo Colon as an offseason target? If he replicates his recent performance(he was worth at least 2.4 fWAR in each of the last five seasons) he would likely be a win better than our current #5. Also, he would come cheap in the FA market. I guess that a 1 year - 10M deal with incentives or a club option would be enough to sign him.
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Post by rafael on Oct 5, 2015 10:45:06 GMT -5
Reddick would be a nice addition to be platooned with Castillo. The cost may be too high that I'd rather sign a guy like Rasmus instead.
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Post by rafael on Oct 2, 2015 13:06:56 GMT -5
If Bogaerts for Stanton straight-up would do it then it was a no-brainer before this season. Right now, I'm glad they didn't make the deal.
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Post by rafael on Oct 1, 2015 12:19:05 GMT -5
I'd be happy with a rotation of five Wade Mileys.
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Post by rafael on Sept 13, 2015 21:57:10 GMT -5
I'll make a quick analysis to try to project JBJ's hitting production going forward. I'll assume that he'll have the same K% and BB% rates (27.6% and 11.0%) that he's having so far this season, he hits 15 HRs over 600 PA, his ISO is .167 (his ISO in AAA this season) and his BABIP is .300. Also I'll assume there will be no HBP, SF, SB...
With all those assumptions, he hits .227/.312/.394. Still an above-average regular, but not an all-star.
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Post by rafael on Sept 6, 2015 20:57:39 GMT -5
Wow, great day for Margot! I'm very excited for him and Travis. I wonder whether they begin next season at AA or AAA.
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Post by rafael on Aug 25, 2015 10:43:56 GMT -5
First big mistake of the Dombrowski era.
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Post by rafael on Aug 24, 2015 21:59:41 GMT -5
Kelly has been a solid fifth starter this year so far, at least according to FIP and xFIP.
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Post by rafael on Aug 24, 2015 17:18:47 GMT -5
Buchholz fWAR is higher than Lester's this season.
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Post by rafael on Aug 4, 2015 20:30:47 GMT -5
Don't want to speak for the staff, but we're talking about a player who hit .261/.298/.353 (83 wRC+) between 2012-2014 over 1331 PAs. Yes, he's having a nice offensive year in 2015 (.315/.337/.474, 132 wRC+), but that's mostly based off a .376 BABIP that seems unsustainable (prior to 2015, he had a .316 career BABIP), and his plate discipline is still pretty bad (he has 11 walks and 69 strikeouts this year). My understanding is that he's also more of a solid defender than a plus one at SS, though he projects to stick at the position. I'm generally of the opinion that his 2015 is mostly a fluke, and I honestly think he's ranked too high. I'd have him ranked around where Asuaje is (24ish). Thank you jmei, that explains a lot.
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Post by rafael on Aug 4, 2015 20:17:41 GMT -5
Sandoval is reading this thread between innings.
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Post by rafael on Aug 4, 2015 20:03:02 GMT -5
Great debut by Owens, even without considering the horrible strike zone and the hostile environment.
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Post by rafael on Aug 4, 2015 19:36:08 GMT -5
Why is Marco Hernandez ranked this low? He is having a very good season offensively while playing plus defense at SS and he is 22 years old. That sounds like top 10 stuff. Is there something that make you guys feel that his offensive season is a fluke or any question marks about his defense?
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Post by rafael on Aug 4, 2015 19:05:09 GMT -5
I don't get the excitement for Dombrowski; sounds like greener grass on the other side. I mean, I like him generally (and I must say he's a snappy dresser), but this ain't Friedmann we're talking about here. He's been giving contracts in Detroit that over the long run will make the Sandoval deal feel like a bargain(Verlander, Miggy, Fielder, etc.); will leave a farm system in pretty rough shape. I mean, Keith Law ranked Detroit's farm system the worst in baseball last January - it's probably a little better now thanks to recent trades. Year after year, his bullpens have been terrible. If DD was doing that in Boston, we'd be killing him on this board. The excuse is always that the owner made him give the bad contracts, but that's quite a cop-out. People want to get rid of Ben, fine. But if Cherington gets fired, he'll leave a Red Sox team that's in much better shape to win in the short and medium terms than what Dombrowski is leaving in Detroit. I guess it depends on the role, and DD has the type of experience you're looking for in general, for a President of Baseball Ops role. But other than that, I really don't see much there that's fundamentally better than what we've got. To me, option 1 is you keep Cherington, get rid of Allard Baird and find wherever Bill Lajoie (or somebody like that) is to work with Ben; if you get rid of Ben, go get whoever is the next analytically minded young GM out there (though you'd probably still need a Lajoie type). I totally agree with you. If BC sold the whole farm as Dombrowski did in Detroit, he could easily build a team way better than any team that Dombrowski built. If the Red Sox want a president of baseball operations, they should get an analitically savvy executive such as Luhnow, Huntington or Mozeliak.
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Post by rafael on Aug 4, 2015 18:59:10 GMT -5
ughhhh the YES broadcast: "blake swihart was ranked the #1 catching prospect" "........" "........" "...... do you believe in that stuff? the rankings stuff?" "no" earlier they were talking about how they could tell whether tanaka would pitch well by looking at his face I was just going to post this. He was the consensus top catching prospect before this season, but a bunch of idiots who think that Moncada is major league ready think he is overrated. I mean, I don't like Don and Jerry, but boy, this is ridiculous.
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Post by rafael on Jul 26, 2015 16:59:30 GMT -5
The year off the Yankees and MLB colluded to make him take off is definitely the biggest thing helping him right now. Most players don't get 18 months to let their body heal and to work out and not deal with the rigors of travel and everything. The Red Sox should try to do the same with Allen Craig!!
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Post by rafael on Jul 24, 2015 14:30:28 GMT -5
clarkspencer @clarkspencer 2m2 minutes ago #marlins are nearing deal with cardinals for Steve cishek Seems that 25 year old AA reliever Kyle Barraclough is going to Miami in that deal. The Marlins just got hosed.
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