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Post by stevedillard on Feb 25, 2024 7:56:19 GMT -5
Yup, the Correa special, of trying to get the greatest length (security) on the downside but with opt-outs for the upside. The trade off seems to be the shorter the deal, the more opt outs, the longer the deal, maybe save an earlier opt-out. And the front loading of the deal, so that the opt-outs are more valuable. The Montgomery pillow deal 3 years= opt out after each 4 years = three opt outs? 5 years = two opt outs? or hold out for three or four opt outs?
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Post by stevedillard on Feb 17, 2024 13:33:28 GMT -5
Another way to look at this is what a great draft for KC to get a valuable (top 20 in system) trade chit in the 11th round. Not a lot of comparable guys outside top 10 round picks in Sox 2019-2022 drafts. Hunter Dobbins, 8th round? Isaac Coffey, 10th round, Marquis Johnson 11th round? Not quite as highly regarded.
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Post by stevedillard on Feb 17, 2024 11:42:35 GMT -5
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Post by stevedillard on Feb 14, 2024 14:16:11 GMT -5
Honestly, that might be a little smaller than he's been... Great, Sox already failing to get the 'best shape of his career" storyline right.
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Post by stevedillard on Feb 13, 2024 12:04:35 GMT -5
I love this. Are we really going to miss Zanatello late signing, kicking around Florida for a couple of weeks, then 36 overmatched at bats?
Let's instead get the DSL and prior year HS kids an earlier start so we can sort them out for promotions to the low A while there's till time left on the schedule. New draftees can report to the intrasquad games the last month while getting used to pro ball.
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Post by stevedillard on Feb 2, 2024 9:42:15 GMT -5
I have never felt like Henry and Werner group were not supportive of the operation, financially. They were (1) bad at publicity/communications and (2) may have lacked the direct connection to the baseball people who could give better feedback on the baseball decisions. This solves both. And, because FSG does need additional money for its buying spree, taking his under 10 mil investment, maybe with a sweetheart consulting contract giving him a return on his investment for minor PR duties, is a win for all. But its primarily PR, and I don't think Breslow will have Theo over his shoulder. If anything, Breslow can use Theo to explain his baseball needs to the Henry/Werner folks.
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Post by stevedillard on Jan 28, 2024 11:50:43 GMT -5
I feel like I wouldn't want to be that team that agreed with a dude found out he was lying about their age and then stepped aside and let another team sign them. Gamesmanship aside that should just be a rule in the MLB. If some dudes lying about their age everyone should know. The Carlos Martínez factor Originally signed by the Red Sox as an international free agent in 2009, MLB voided his contract due to discrepancies over his name and date of birth after the revelation that he was also known as Carlos Matias. However, he was eventually cleared of wrongdoing, as it was found that the inconsistencies arose from poor record keeping.[1]
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Post by stevedillard on Jan 25, 2024 20:56:49 GMT -5
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Post by stevedillard on Jan 25, 2024 10:27:38 GMT -5
#9 Kennew Blanco SS (was supposed to sign with TOR) - very young for this class. Rumor is he might sign with Toronto next year for a higher bonus. or not I wonder what the discount for one year is. The performance is exactly the same, but it depends on if a 16 year old or 17 year old is doing it. Malcolm Gladwell has his famous observation about early-year birth dates, and more recently has written about age-adjusted performance in sports (using discounts to adjust swimming times per age). I guess we'll see it in play, although there may also be some additional factors such has character that may account for the 18 yo bonus.
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Post by stevedillard on Jan 19, 2024 18:33:59 GMT -5
The Sox are in a position where the owners are willing to spend money, but hired baseball people who recognize there are few good places to spend wisely. So now they have to keep their powder dry for the next opportunity, even as fans clamor for spending for the sake of spending.
From a business perspective this hurts them tremendously. That’s why they were so quick to say they’re willing to go full throttle. But Breslow has the keys and recognizes a school zone is not where you air it out. Also a function of him being new he probably doesn’t have the required decisiveness. But I trust that when the time comes they’ll spend up to or above limit.
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Post by stevedillard on Jan 19, 2024 18:16:04 GMT -5
I wish they could just sign Snell for 9 years at $40 million per year so everyone would feel better about the direction of the team.
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Post by stevedillard on Jan 18, 2024 14:16:08 GMT -5
MLB Pipeline's top 10 catching prospects: 1. Ethan Salas, Padres (2025) $5.6 2023 2. Samuel Basallo, Orioles (2025) $1.3 2021 3. Jeferson Quero, Brewers (2024) $200K 2019 4. Harry Ford, Mariners (2025) 1st round 2021 5. Kyle Teel, Red Sox (2025)
6. Dalton Rushing, Dodgers (2025) 2nd round 2022 7. Blake Mitchell, Royals (2027) 2023 1st round 8. Moises Ballesteros, Cubs (2026) $1.2 2021 9. Edgar Quero, White Sox (2025) $200K 2020 10. Diego Cartaya, Dodgers (2025) $2.5 million 2022 www.mlb.com/news/top-catching-prospects-for-2024How acquired
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Post by stevedillard on Jan 16, 2024 16:36:25 GMT -5
I'm glad Breslow is at least being honest. Yes, its frustrating that we were lied to 4 years ago, and are now being told to wait 2 more years. But anyone looking at the minors knew the "wave" was not going to arrive before then. And I'm not even sure we were lied to, as maybe Bloom was delusional - hence his refusal to sell at the past two deadlines. Breslow has my support as he's at least recognized the problem, and is closer to a solution. Build for 2 years, means selling Sale. Too many of Bloom's moves were in a vacuum and not an overarching goal. At least we now have a goal. If Breslow can be as creative in creating some actual potential building blocks (Grissom) then having an 80 win team may be close to the playoffs, will be satisfying, if we see the future of Casas becoming a middle order bat, one of Rafaella/Abreu/Duran becoming a regular, and Bellow making the next move. And if we wait out the market and get Montgomery or Soler on a reasonable contract, we'll be closer than I think.
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Post by stevedillard on Jan 16, 2024 11:43:06 GMT -5
40 is basically the two DSL rosters, with a few holdovers from last year. Or is it that some signees never even get to play at the DSL level? Interesting that for such a wide funnel opening, the one GSL team really narrows quickly, forcing a lot of one-and-outs.
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Post by stevedillard on Jan 15, 2024 10:05:42 GMT -5
Badler with a top 100 Int'l bonus board- write ups on the top 50, which has Asencio, and then 4 names (noone new to what SP has on the int'l signings page) after the top 50, but no write ups 55. Carlos Carrasquel, 3B, VZ 86. Edwin Brito, OF, DR 89. Dalvinson Reyes, RHP, DR 99. Anderson Fermin, SS/CF, DR These rankings are still by bonus. Seems like those four guys will get healthy six figure bonuses. Agree, particularly if Atencio is our top bonus at $1 mill, that's a lot of cash left for that next tier.
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Post by stevedillard on Jan 12, 2024 20:09:37 GMT -5
does Bastardo=Dastardly?
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Post by stevedillard on Jan 6, 2024 10:38:50 GMT -5
BTW, don't see it mentioned, but the Soxprospects page has a bunch of names including Asencio as "rumored signings", but with a Jan 2023 date. Don't know if these are just placeholders, but with a lot of detail (I would not think so) but I also would be surprised to see the names leaked this early. www.soxprospects.com/international.htm
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Post by stevedillard on Jan 3, 2024 8:56:00 GMT -5
The Red Sox added a grab bag of mystery box pitchers, Tony Ruiz still got his money, and after striking out 36% of the time against DSL pitching it's not very likely that we'll be thinking of him as the one that got away. Don't think there's much to complain about. Backing out of the Ruiz deal may have been the right move, but it did seem to throw a wrench in their international spending plans thereafter. Yes, not sure what the "freaking out" comment was meant to convey. I think we can all agree that walking away last minute from a $1.2 mill deal was less than optimal. Trying to justify it as "only" leaving $200K on the table also seems to ignore that not being able to spend the whole amount is an indication that they had no firm backup plan. It also may suggest that they were willing to overpay on the remaining bonuses because they could (thinking of Bates), making the $200K a more wobbly number. So, yes, they were able to spend close to the whole $1.2, and if that's your metric, then there was no reason for anyone to freak out. But, on a scale of really low-hit rates, where the Sox already use a "volume" approach to spread out the risk, I would still bet on Ruiz over the "last minute fillers" Lee/Bates/guys signed mid-to-late summer that ate up $850-900K of his bonus.
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Post by stevedillard on Dec 31, 2023 13:48:01 GMT -5
Its an agent full stop. This isnt the first time Chis and masslive wrote an article this week that essentially said the sox are cheap. The agent said that Bloom was operating with a 225 million dollar budget last year? Doubt that. With Bloom’s inability to understand the difference between “just over the limit” vs “just under the limit” I’d also have given him a budget well below the limit.
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Post by stevedillard on Dec 30, 2023 16:33:46 GMT -5
The description of Grissom sounds faintly like Jeter Downs. Slash hitter who was super prospect and you’re betting the team giving him up doesn’t guess right
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Post by stevedillard on Dec 30, 2023 15:45:57 GMT -5
IIRC Grissom is also from Aruba, which beg the question: How many languages does he speak? Ehhh, he's from Florida. So none?
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Post by stevedillard on Dec 30, 2023 14:49:26 GMT -5
Is Grissom a year ahead of Yorke and same profile? If so, did one of them become redundant and trade-fodder?
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Post by stevedillard on Dec 30, 2023 14:33:09 GMT -5
A GM who actually understands rebuilding and getting future for disappearing assets. Already a huge upgrade from other unnamed GMs.
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Post by stevedillard on Dec 29, 2023 22:06:17 GMT -5
Hidden benefit is it takes the Sox out of the "desperate" market as they approach other FA pitchers. That, in itself, may reduce their price by $20 mil, or in trade capital.
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Post by stevedillard on Dec 14, 2023 10:38:27 GMT -5
With the prices of FAs, the most fiscally-prudent act Breslow can undertake is to start locking up Casas and Bello in the next year or two. Locking up homegrown talent is the Atlanta model, though their young talent was a bit further down the road. At current rates, even an extra two or thee years post arb for Casas and Bello could amount to 30-40 million AAV savings.
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