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Post by stevedillard on Dec 13, 2023 9:22:16 GMT -5
Ryan Pelion was Dodgers’ 2019 3rd rounder out of college, where we picked Ryan Zeferjahn.
DeLuca was their 25th rounder.
How assets are chosen.
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Post by stevedillard on Dec 12, 2023 10:19:48 GMT -5
I don't think the average rate of return on investments for someone with that much money is between 4.25 and 5%. It’s not - I was speaking strictly on *risk free* returns. More risk = more return but if you want as close to a 100% guarantee to getting your money back as possible, the current rate of return is ~4.25% Remember the Mets' reason for the Bonilla deferral was that they had found a great investment that was churning out regular 10% returns, year over year, so they would have a lot more money when the deferred payments were due. Some investment fund called Haydoff, or something like that. I don’t know why everyone thinks this is such a trick. the Dodgers need to pay him $700 million. All they did was backload it — essentially a balloon mortgage. As a billion dollar company they’ll be able to afford it on a cash flow basis but it’s still actual cash they’ll have to shell out each year long after he’s gone, on top of their then payroll. And for tax purposes, they’re charged on the present value of that deal, which reflect the true value of it- 500 mil or so is a guess, depending on discount rate assumptions of future interest rayes
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Post by stevedillard on Dec 11, 2023 14:51:05 GMT -5
The Sox scouts were unimpressed by his Knuckleball, so in desperation of going unsigned, he learned a fastball.
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Post by stevedillard on Dec 10, 2023 10:01:33 GMT -5
Montgomery might want to spend time with his wife. All things being equal, that could be a deciding factor for him. I wouldn’t consider it a deciding factor, but it is one of the reasons he is linked here. Well then, his wife picked the wrong career for that, at least in the short run. Residents (maybe even dermatologists) have notorious 24 hour/48 hour rotations, 60-80 hour weeks. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medical_resident_work_hoursThat aside, I remain torn about these mega contracts (I mean, who isn't). In the abstract they are "too much" but I have only sporadically seen them handcuff a team. I mean, we felt constrained and had to trade Mookie, and the Yankees are somewhat constrained to "only" three mega contracts (Judge, Cole, Stanton). But the Mets and Dodgers evidence no such constraint from the Mookie/Kershaw etc deals that you might have though would preclude other signings. That's the frustrating thing about this, if there were a true cap, you know every signing is a trade off. But its not, and even the few non-monetary teeth of a cap (loss of draft picks and International money) don't seem to inhibit long term product. [Tangent, even with a international penalty of $500K, Bloom then even wasted $700K more, suggesting how remote any actual penalty translates into talent pool] With Betts I agreed his deal was "above" what I subjectively viewed as the market, and I also bought into the cap penalties posing a true impediment to long term performance. But I'm questioning both aspects now. So, although every ounce of me screams "don't invest $250 plus in any pitcher -- Sale and Price" the money has to be spent somewhere. And from Henry's perspective, he must recognize that saving 50 million is at the cost of overall franchise value of 100s of millions. Therefore, to remain relevant, that is a costs of doing business.
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Post by stevedillard on Dec 1, 2023 10:01:40 GMT -5
Continues to be a very immature system, with six the players never having hit AA for more than a season end cup of coffee (Anthony/Mayer*/Theel/Bleis/Perales/Cespedes). We also Zantello/Garcia/Romero/Paulino and Monegro in the same boat.
If there is a wave of prospects, it is still swelling a bit further offshore. With that amount of variance still built into our farm, I have to imagine some will be cashed out this coming week.
* I include Mayer because we hope his season was not representative of his true unrestricted ability.
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Post by stevedillard on Nov 15, 2023 8:41:20 GMT -5
Playing on the reported disconnect between Bloom's view and the rest of the baseball ops, I wonder if views on Drohan diverged so that Bloom believed in pitchablity more than the ops. Now that he's gone, and Breslow is more aligned with the baseball ops view, Drohan's value -- large measure based on Bloom's theories -- had taken a large hit.
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Post by stevedillard on Nov 9, 2023 17:14:29 GMT -5
Is Verdugo eligible to be traded to the Yankees, given his beard?
(I'd do it in a heartbeat)
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Post by stevedillard on Nov 4, 2023 14:37:13 GMT -5
@jonheyman Eduardo Rodriguez opted out of Tigers deal. Had $49M, 3 years to go. Another old friend Jalen Beeks is on waivers Wow. I put that ERod contract into the "that's a bad deal" category, and now he opts out because he believes he can get better?
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Post by stevedillard on Nov 2, 2023 19:12:13 GMT -5
I'm just surprised he had to go to the MLB for a loan. Couldn't he have borrowed $50 mil from deeper pockets like Xander or Manny?
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Post by stevedillard on Oct 30, 2023 19:51:11 GMT -5
I absolutely hear the lack of experience concerns, but honestly I'm into it (and I didn't totally expect to be when I first heard Breslow was being considered). I don't know enough about the skills they look for when hunting for a POBO, but I'm down to go outside the box and see where that leads us. The whole "front office experience" thing is beyond my comprehension. What does that even mean? That he's sat around in a chair for decades? Sending out contract offers by the deadline.
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Post by stevedillard on Oct 28, 2023 15:21:40 GMT -5
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Post by stevedillard on Oct 25, 2023 1:51:23 GMT -5
Smart move to bring in a lefty to face solving the predominantly lefty lineup.
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Post by stevedillard on Oct 24, 2023 11:42:43 GMT -5
Does BA still do by-league end of year rankings with manager comments? it was the most exciting bit of info into the FSL and low A ball prospects relative to their peers.
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Post by stevedillard on Oct 20, 2023 16:31:30 GMT -5
Henry is the problem. Just because he never shows his hand in public does not mean he isn't calling the shots. Henry is the problem. Just because he never shows up anymore and has delegated to Kennedy and Cora, who seem to be running the ship. While getting rid of Bloom is OK in my book, their entrenched position makes it hard for anyone from the outside to want to join the org. Hence, the existing group stays in place. Which means I have to hope that the past 4 years were Bloom alone, acting against the wishes of everyone else who is staying.
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Post by stevedillard on Oct 18, 2023 20:38:23 GMT -5
Nephew is long-time Os fan, and just told me to stay away from Sig, who is his favorite O's front-office guy.
Good enough for me.
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Post by stevedillard on Oct 18, 2023 11:57:21 GMT -5
James Click out here hustling to manufacture the tiniest of news cycles about himself The judges were looking for “James out there hustling for clicks”
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Post by stevedillard on Oct 14, 2023 12:45:16 GMT -5
Anyone remember what the reactions were when Theo first got hired? I’m curious, since I don’t remember. Internet fans loved him from day one Actually, the primary reaction was to Henry screwing up Billy Beane hiring. Because he was unknown and way too young by the standards of the day there was a worry about him. And don’t start on hiring of Tito, a loser during his time with the Phils.
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Post by stevedillard on Oct 13, 2023 11:02:17 GMT -5
Sounds like a group has entrenched themselves sufficiently. Without knowing, so huge caveat, but having Kennedy, Cora and Romero safe before a hire (and then advertising the position without a clear mandate - as one or two roles) seems like it’s solely to work within the current structure. Either Bloom was a Lone Ranger within the org, or the focus of only replacing him while requiring the others remain inplace seems beyond bad process.
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Post by stevedillard on Oct 1, 2023 9:50:22 GMT -5
Because sometimes embarrassing a team is the best way to get change. The Sox fest booing of Henry last December and lack of ratings/tickets undoubtedly played a role in the decision.
I’m in the short term pain for longer term gain camp. Sell at deadlines, lose meaningless game now to increase odds, etc.
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Post by stevedillard on Oct 1, 2023 9:35:27 GMT -5
Lose it for Chaim.
See his "rebuild the farm" mission through to fruition.
The plan built on the #4, #9 (or 11), #14, #17, #24, picks in the first round over the past four years. Hopefully we can spend the next few years debating whether to credit the new GM or Chaim for the superstar player picked at 9.
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 30, 2023 21:21:31 GMT -5
Good night for tankathon.
Subject to lottery, ....
Mets sweep so will finish ahead of LAA (so drop out of top 15) Sox loss means the will finish ahead of SF
8 Cleveland 76-85 9 Detroit 77-84 10 Washington 70-90 .438 11 Boston 77-84
Cle v Detroit tomorrow means one will pass us, if we lose tomorrow.
down to:
9th pick if we lose, or 11th if we win
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 30, 2023 16:06:52 GMT -5
More importantly the Mets are up 4-0. They need to stay out of top 6 or else we don’t move up one spot. They are 76-83 while LAA is 76-84 with 2 vs Oak. Their magic number is 2.
We’re guaranteed to pick 9th if we lose out. If Det wins last game they pass us 78 to 77. If Cleveland wins that last game they pass us 77 v 77 (with tiebreaker). Provided we lose our 2.
All subject to lottery of course
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 30, 2023 8:13:17 GMT -5
Bello, Sale, and Pivetta are my #3, #4, and #5 next year. Boy, this is gonna be expensive for Mr. Henry if he wants to win. Exacerbated by the fact that I can't count on Sale to be #4 for a whole season. There just aren't that many good 2024 FA starters that can give you 160+ innings. I think a cost controlled kid like Sandy Alcantara would be a good rotational fit www.mlb.com/player/sandy-alcantara-645261
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 30, 2023 6:47:11 GMT -5
Horrible night for tankathon. Pitt loses in final innings eliminates our chance of overtaking them. Angels' win (with two remaining against worst team, Oakland) increased their chances of overtaking Mets (and thus Mets' pick becoming protected and remaining ahead of us). And with Boston win and SF loss, we're a single game out of 13th (though with tiebreaker, it's really two games). 7th seemed possible yesterday, now 9th seems a realistic best, with 13th now equally possible.
6 LA Angels 72-88 .450 7** NY Mets 72-86 .456 7 (8) Pittsburgh 75-85 .469 8 (9) Detroit 76-84 .475 10 Washington 70-90 .438 9 (11) Cleveland 76-84 .475 11 (12) Boston 77-83 .481 12 (13) San Francisco 78-82 .488
Since Det and Cleveland play each other, one will have at least 77 wins. Barring another Boston win, if Cleveland wins, we move ahead of them to 11th (9th if Mets keep ahead of LAA). The only way we move ahead of Detroit is if they sweep the last two because they hold the tie breaker.
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 29, 2023 18:41:06 GMT -5
Just highlighting the big plus of the past GM, building the farm with the 7th pick
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