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Post by stevedillard on Sept 29, 2023 18:24:19 GMT -5
Text from my god son, an Orioles fan
red sox do not look like they’re still interested in playing baseball
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 29, 2023 11:16:31 GMT -5
If the game gets washed out tonight, will it be made up? (Does it matter to Baltimore?)
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 29, 2023 9:30:08 GMT -5
At 7th the Mets would have about a 50/50 chance of moving into the lottery.
But there's only a 10% chance of that.
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 29, 2023 9:11:00 GMT -5
Didn't notice until Chris H's twitter retweet: not only is finishing 8 or 9 good in itself, but 7th (50% plus) and 8th (40% plus) or 9th (28%) make the lottery (top 6) far more likely.
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 29, 2023 1:53:07 GMT -5
I beiieve anything but a sweep in the Det/Cle series gets us there. If Det wins 2 we would be tied with Cleveland at 76 wins, but pick ahead of them because of last year's record.
And the picks above in your scenario and mine would be #7. Mets pick drops 10 spots.
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 28, 2023 18:27:09 GMT -5
Wasn’t he the nephew of Bill Fischer our pitching coach? Lots of provincial nepotism at the time. Haywood Sullivan and Marc Sullivan.
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 28, 2023 17:17:20 GMT -5
Because Cleveland and Detroit (picks 8 and 9) play each other the final series, we will pass one or both of them if we can manage not to win another game. We control our destiny for the pick.
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 28, 2023 15:36:12 GMT -5
Updated for Detroit SWEEP of double header vs. KC, so tied with Boston in the win column, and ahead of Cleveland.
7 Pittsburgh 74-84 8 Cleveland 75-84 9 Detroit 76-83 10 Washington 69-90 11 Boston 76-82 12 San Francisco 78-81
Detroit's sweep makes the Cleveland/Detroit series really interesting. Assuming we can hold off an not win any more games, one of Cle/Det is guaranteed to pass us. We need only tie Cleveland to move up (they had better record last year). We lose the tie breaker to Detroit, so they need to finish with a better record. As long as no sweep, Detroit taking 1 or 2 of the 3 games means both would pass us and we pick 8th!!!!!!
1967 3 Mike Garman 1966 4 Ken Brett 2021 4 Marcelo Mayer 1965 5 Billy Conigliaro 1993 7 Trot Nixon 2013 7 Trey Ball 2015 7 Andrew Benintendi 1988 12 Tom Fischer 1994 12 Nomar Garciaparra 1998 12 Adam Everett 2016 12 Jay Groome 1969 13 Noel Jenke 1984 14 John Marzano 1986 14 Greg McMurtry 2023 14 Kyle Teel 1971 15 Jim Rice 1975 15 Otis Foster 1995 15 Andy Yount 1970 16 Jimmie Hacker 1972 16 Joel Bishop 1982 16 *Sam Horn 1989 16 *Greg Blosser 1973 17 Ted Cox 1997 17 John Curtice 1999 17 *Rick Asadoorian 2003 17 David Murphy 2020 17 Nick Yorke
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 28, 2023 14:54:21 GMT -5
What specifically did they do to "quit on him"? Lose games? They're 6 games below .500. They were probably an 85-ish win team before the deadline and they stood pat while others got better. In September, Yoshida, Turner, Story, Wong, Verdugo, McGuire, Reyes and Duvall all have wRC+'s of 61 or lower. Of the 5 starters none have a HR/9 below 0.92. The bullpen other than Martin has gone sour. These statements might lead me to question whether they were actually an 85 win team (merely reverting to mean), or the 74 win team I saw before the season. I guess it all turns on expectations. In my mind, Cora has performed sufficiently well considering the talent he was handed. If people are negative toward Cora, I guess they saw this as a 85 -90 win team. I look forward to a team where I can hate the manager because I expect something from them. (A close corollary to 'I don't blame Devers because he lacked protection around him')
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 28, 2023 6:47:13 GMT -5
PICK TEAM RECORD WIN% GB 1 Oakland 48-110 .304 2 Kansas City 54-103 .344 3 Colorado 57-101 .361 4 CHI White Sox 60-98 .380 5 St. Louis 69-89 .437 6 LA Angels 71-88 .447 NY Mets 72-86 .456 7 Pittsburgh 74-84 .468 8 Detroit 74-83 .471 10 Washington 69-90 .434 9 Cleveland 75-84 .472 11 Boston 76-82 .481 12 San Francisco 78-81 .491 San Diego 79-80 .497
I believe the tie breakers are last years' rankings, meaning we have the "advantage" over Cleveland due to finishing below them last year. Therefore, there we are only one Cleveland win away from the 9th pick. By the same measure, the Mets need to stay out of the top 6 to not lose their pick. However, the Angels were worse last year, so the difference is actually 2 1/2 games right now with 4 to go.
Unless the Sox go on a run, they will not overtake SF.
9 or 11 seem most likely.
Boston with 4 vs. Baltimore have second toughest remaining schedule SF with 3 against LAD have third toughest. Cleveland has 3 vs. Detroit. Our hope is Cleveland sweeps, or at least takes 2. If Detroit sweeps they could overtake us, but taking 2/3 would leave us tied (if we lose out), but Detroit would still have higher pick.
The longest chance is Pitt, with 4 left, 1 against Philly, and 3 against Florida.
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 27, 2023 16:05:11 GMT -5
Makes me feel a lot better about Cora’s acumen . So reading into this soap opera, I get the sense that Bloom was not executing ownership’s actual strategy. Sure they were willing to be more conservative in long term extensions, commitments, and step back a bit to allow the farm to rebuild. But Blom’s view of true market value and in many instances chasing the market seems even more austere than the Sox owners (and their close ally Cora) wanted
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 26, 2023 19:09:49 GMT -5
I'd give him the extra $640,000 we failed to spend on the rest of his class.
Body type wise he's more of a 3B down the line. Other than him and Arias the class seems mild.
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 26, 2023 12:09:10 GMT -5
Soto and Bogaerts for Verdugo & Yorke. Who says no?
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 26, 2023 12:00:55 GMT -5
I have a feeling that the hire will be very PR-conscious,. Because people will show up at Fenway to watch the 78-84 Sox led by a woman? The value of the Sox franchise rises and falls on their success. That’s why I always felt the “Sox want to reduce payroll to save money” was such a silly theory. Save 30 mil but lose 200 mill market value. They may chafe at Sale’s waste of 200 mil, and were swayed by the “I can do it more efficiently” theory. But they’ve seen that’s a much less certain result and have cost them dearly in value. So they’ll be back to spending and GFIN mode. Not fully trader Dombrowski but someone far more aggressive with risk
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 25, 2023 8:22:18 GMT -5
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 25, 2023 6:34:09 GMT -5
Am I correct that the tiebreaker is last year's records, so that even if we end with the same record as SF we still pick ahead of them because we also had a poorer record last year? (I.e., we have a two game difference? 11th pick looks like it's pretty certain.
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 24, 2023 18:01:24 GMT -5
Because they have the tie breaker, its really four. And "indignity"? Nobody ares how much of a loser you are, if you get a better player for the next decade.
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 24, 2023 17:34:53 GMT -5
PICK TEAM RECORD WIN% GB 1 Oakland 48-107 .310 -- 2 Kansas City 54-102 .346 5.5 3 Colorado 56-99 .361 8.0 4 CHI White Sox 60-96 .385 11.5 5 St. Louis 68-87 .439 20.0 6 LA Angels 70-86 .449 21.5 NY Mets 71-84 .458 23.0 7 Detroit 73-83 .468 24.5 8 Cleveland 74-83 .471 25.0 10 Washington 69-87 .442 20.5 9 Pittsburgh 74-82 .474 25.5 11 Boston 76-80 .487 27.5 12 San Francisco 77-78 .497 29.0 San Diego 77-79 .493 28.5
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 20, 2023 16:09:13 GMT -5
Anyone remember the Sox pre=Theo construction of Bret Saberhagen as their #3 starter, held together by tape after missing the end of 95 and all of 96 season with injuries? He was Chris Sale before Chris Sale (or James Paxton). We got a memorable 3 2/3 innings and 11 runs out of his start in the ALDS. Saberhagen was nearly 7 bWAR for ‘98-‘99. I remember him as being a godsend after years of hapless starters. When he was able to pitch, he was good. But he was so unreliable health wise that he may have been good for 2/3 of the season, but ultimately could not make it to the finish line and was a minus in the playoffs, leaving them in a deep hole (one only overcome by Nomah and Yummy).
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 20, 2023 15:44:30 GMT -5
Anyone remember the Sox pre=Theo construction of Bret Saberhagen as their #3 starter, held together by tape after missing the end of 95 and all of 96 season with injuries? He was Chris Sale before Chris Sale (or James Paxton). We got a memorable 3 2/3 innings and 11 runs out of his start in the ALDS.
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 20, 2023 8:00:07 GMT -5
Feeling worse about my 74 win prediction.
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 19, 2023 9:42:35 GMT -5
Four years of Bloom hate…. some of you are going to have to find something new to complain about…, but I am sure those of you will find something with the new GM to complain about…..as sure as the sun will rise tomorrow….! Is it wrong to complain about 3 last place finishes in 4 years, though? We can complain about the Story and Yoshida signings that he left us with:)
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 19, 2023 7:12:26 GMT -5
Win put us 2 1/2 back of Cleveland for the #9. They do have some potential wins against KC and Detroit on the remaining schedule.(We have 3 winnable games against White Sox and two more against Tex, then six tough against TB/Baltimore)
But the greater risk is that we drop. We are now only one win ahead of SF. SF has 7 tough games against the Dodgers, while 5 potential wins (3 against SD and 2 against Arizona).
So we'll hopefully remain 11th, and not drop to 12th.
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 18, 2023 8:41:11 GMT -5
PICK TEAM RECORD WIN% GB STREAK L10 ODDS 1 Oakland 46-103 .309 -- Lost 4 4-6 16.50% 2 Kansas City 48-102 .320 1.5 Lost 1 4-6 16.50% 3 Colorado 56-93 .376 10.0 Lost 1 5-5 16.50% 4 CHI White Sox 57-93 .380 10.5 Lost 1 3-7 13.25% 5 St. Louis 66-83 .443 20.0 Won 1 5-5 10.00% 6 LA Angels 68-82 .453 21.5 Lost 5 4-6 7.50% __ NY Mets 69-80 .463 23.0 Won 1 5-5 5.50% 7 Pittsburgh 70-80 .467 23.5 Won 1 5-5 3.90% 8 Detroit 70-79 .470 24.0 Won 4 7-3 2.70% 10 Washington 66-84 .440 19.5 Won 1 3-7 __ San Diego 72-78 .480 25.5 Won 4 6-4 1.40% 9 Cleveland 72-78 .480 25.5 Won 3 5-5 1.10% 11 Boston 74-76 .493 27.5 Lost 4 2-8 0.90% 12 San Francisco 76-74 .507 29.5 Won 1 6-4 0.76% __ NY Yankees 76-74 .507 29.5 Lost 1 6-4 0.62% 13 Cincinnati 78-73 .517 31.0 Lost 1 5-5 0.48% 14 CHI Cubs 78-72 .520 31.5 Lost 5 2-8 0.36%
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 17, 2023 15:31:33 GMT -5
Between the 11th pick and not wasting $1 mil in international money next year the building of the farm should continue into next year
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