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Post by stevedillard on Sept 18, 2023 8:41:11 GMT -5
PICK TEAM RECORD WIN% GB STREAK L10 ODDS 1 Oakland 46-103 .309 -- Lost 4 4-6 16.50% 2 Kansas City 48-102 .320 1.5 Lost 1 4-6 16.50% 3 Colorado 56-93 .376 10.0 Lost 1 5-5 16.50% 4 CHI White Sox 57-93 .380 10.5 Lost 1 3-7 13.25% 5 St. Louis 66-83 .443 20.0 Won 1 5-5 10.00% 6 LA Angels 68-82 .453 21.5 Lost 5 4-6 7.50% __ NY Mets 69-80 .463 23.0 Won 1 5-5 5.50% 7 Pittsburgh 70-80 .467 23.5 Won 1 5-5 3.90% 8 Detroit 70-79 .470 24.0 Won 4 7-3 2.70% 10 Washington 66-84 .440 19.5 Won 1 3-7 __ San Diego 72-78 .480 25.5 Won 4 6-4 1.40% 9 Cleveland 72-78 .480 25.5 Won 3 5-5 1.10% 11 Boston 74-76 .493 27.5 Lost 4 2-8 0.90% 12 San Francisco 76-74 .507 29.5 Won 1 6-4 0.76% __ NY Yankees 76-74 .507 29.5 Lost 1 6-4 0.62% 13 Cincinnati 78-73 .517 31.0 Lost 1 5-5 0.48% 14 CHI Cubs 78-72 .520 31.5 Lost 5 2-8 0.36%
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 17, 2023 15:31:33 GMT -5
Between the 11th pick and not wasting $1 mil in international money next year the building of the farm should continue into next year
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 17, 2023 9:21:34 GMT -5
I was always confused by the Story contract. He was/is sort of a luxury that big payroll teams can afford to make. He is valuable as a second tier supplement around core guys like Xander/JD/Devers. But if you have to scrimp elsewhere, like RF/CF and C you scratch your head about his planned role. It only makes sense if they knew Xander was leaving, but all indications are they didn't really anticipate that as a likely scenario. And now that you need a regular middle lineup bat, he's inadequate to fill that role (even taking into account the mulligan year)
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 16, 2023 18:12:42 GMT -5
When we draft in the top 12 again next year and get a top-10 Sox Prospect player, does Bloom still get credit for building the farm system when we make the pick?
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 15, 2023 18:20:53 GMT -5
One weird thing this season is that Chase Meidroth was awful for about a six-week stretch from late June to early August, and arguably the best hitter in the system before and after that. Especially striking (no pun intended) is the K and BB rates: Thru 6/25: 243 PA, .309/.453/.445, 6 HR, 44 BB, 44K 6/29-8/6: 116 PA, .186/.285/.284 1 HR, 11 BB, 31K Since 8/8: 124 PA, .287/.419/.406, 2 HR, 20 BB, 22K His defense is also better than was advertised. Average enough range (possibly slightly above chasing popups), and a nice, quick release which makes his arm play above its strength. Good on the pivot, good footwork. He also has the lowest whiff% in the Eastern League among qualified hitters at 5.9%. I’m always dreaming of the non toolsy never break top 10 prospects who just work their way up the ladder like Kevin Youkilis
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 15, 2023 15:03:29 GMT -5
My view of Bloom's credit for improving the prospect rankings is similar, sort of how good above replacement level was Bloom. Essentially, in four years he's had the following draft picks in the top 150 (in priority order) 4 14 17 24 41 50 75 79 83 89 99 105 115 118 129 132 133 136 148
I'm sure someone more database driven could find a method for placing an expected value on those picks (i.e., a #4 pick overall is usually a top 30 prospect in year 2, a #14 pick, etc.) and find the expected improvement in year 2, 3, 4 after benefitting from those picks. Looking at the MLB Pipeline rankings, for example, you can see Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, Cincinnati and Texas benefitting from high draft picks to claim the top 10 spots. Only LA and Tampa stand out as successful teams who have beaten the odds.
Then you have successful teams up to a couple of years ago, like the Cubs, Washington who are ranked because of shrewd trades. Washington made an offer to an outfielder who wanted $300 plus million, and when he said no, they traded him. In return, they received a lot of prospects who have fueled their improvement. The Cubs saw they were sellers, and extorted a top 20 prospect from the Mets. As their write up says "Crow-Armstrong, Caissie, Alcántara and Brown all joined the organization via trades."
And lurking just outside the top 10 is another similar team that is in a bigger market, had bigger aspirations, but then sold at the deadline to improve their system:
So, yes, being bad gives you better picks, and better prospects so your system will be ranked higher. A replacement level GM can do that. But you can also get top prospects in trades, and while Bloom added depth prospects (i.e., Valdez, Abreu, Winkowski) he really didn't get too creative in getting higher upside guys - probably Binelas was the highest "just drafted and we want you to give him up" sort of trade. The younger lottery ticket guys he did get (DelaRosa and Valdez) crashed out pretty quickly, Valdez not even managing to start in the rookie league. And he also didn't do anything creative to improve the pool of picks (and even hurt their bundle with the trade deadline luxury tax).
Factor in that the teams with great farms will likely graduate those guys and fall out of the top 10, and I wonder how challenging the move from 28th to 10th-15 range is.
Overall, the improvement is right in line with the improved ranking that I'd expect with that sort of bundle of picks. I'm excited to throw my hopes into the new kid on the block, and see if they can get an above-replacement-level GM.
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 15, 2023 8:33:33 GMT -5
So, after listening to the SP podcast, and the specific question of what ails the team going forward, I thought I'd put into this thread the challenges I think they need to be able to address (without knowing any of the candidates or how they would approach these issues).
First, the issues 1.Left handedness of lineup 2.Starting pitching 3."Window" identification
First, they have a lineup for next year of Casas, Devers, Yoshida, Duran, Verdugo, Abreu (McGuire) with Mayer/Teel on the horizon. The only RH bats are Turner, who is likely to depart, Story, Wong, Duvall (same, but also short term if returns) and Rafaela. Depending on value, I would see planning on a Abreu/Rafaele platoon next year, and packaging some of the lefties (Duran with Verdugo?) for pitching or even just a righty outfielder. Other permutations I've heard is the Yoshida/Devers DH glut, so maybe seeing a market for Yoshida as a guy who performs close to his contract and maybe you subsidize it to find a taker (and some value in return)
Second, the podcast spoke of needing two big free agent signings as SP. I am with Chaim on not committing to long term pitching. It's too volatile, so no on Nola, Yamamoto, 5 plus year deals. I suspect they have to try and acquire by trade a guy under control, either close to money (good luck, and at a huge prospect cost), or identifying a first/second/third year guy just ready to turn into something (think Pivvetta like). That will buy time for the power arms Winkleman/ELC/Perales/Monegro to sort themselves out.
Third, is the vision for the team window. Or more appropriately, the vision is undoubtedly to avoid a window like 2018 after which everyone becomes too costly and you boom and bust. With the "Bloom system" still two to three years away from coming to the majors, but then two more years from being impactful (see Volpe), how do they extend to that point, which means committing to the kids just starting they period (Casas/Bello) to keep them beyond 5 year from now.
Fourth, value for the farm surplus. I guess a final addition is finding a market for the second tier prospects like Paulino, Blaze, Romero and getting something for them before they disappear. We see from the Dombrowski retrospective that his deal sweeteners like Logan Allen have value even if most then never hit their mark (like most prospects don't).
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 14, 2023 20:58:36 GMT -5
wow. saved 3 runs.
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 14, 2023 20:00:52 GMT -5
Devers out
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 14, 2023 18:41:49 GMT -5
Let's see how good a salesman the next GM is in explaining how the Sox have to trade Verdugo because they're too left handed and need to make room for Abreu. Almost make it sound like it hurst to have to let him go.
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 14, 2023 15:39:22 GMT -5
Okay this is the first guy that actually makes sense: Durfee's own Only if he brings a vat of that magic dust they sprinkle on crap pitchers and meh players that suddenly turns them into All Stars. Or the prospect evaluation skills to get a top 5 MLB player for a league average OF prospect, an overrated SS prospect and a potential backup C while holding on to valuable actual prospects
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 14, 2023 13:19:04 GMT -5
Now, I know the answer to this, but I'll ask the group just to stir the pot. Any chance Theo being seen and pictured in Boston riding the T means he was here to sneek in the back door to sack Chaim and take his job back Viking style? No thanks on Theo. His day has come and gone, using advanced metrics more than others, having an uncapped MLB salary, and exploiting the rules on comp draft picks, and using unlimited bonuses in the draft. That's all been eliminated, and we're back to a pure scouting and projection world for building teams. Not sure how he fares there.
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 14, 2023 12:19:28 GMT -5
I expect Cora to manage next year too. Mets?
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 14, 2023 11:25:31 GMT -5
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 13, 2023 6:48:42 GMT -5
It'll be interesting to see how good Jarred Carrabis' sources are, if they're accurate about Bloom not being around come November. Not to speak for him, but from hearing him describe it on the radio, I doubt he would call them sources in the know. Just folks around the park, who may have a vibe but no inside info. But if enough people are picking up on a vibe, its something to watch. Just going chalk in the draft would have yielded Mayer, and Teel, and we can debate about whether our system would be better going chalk rather than the PCA/Yorke-Jordan trade. He's really failed to supplement the draft, he could have done a lot better had he maximized his approach. At each trade deadline he's had assets that would have no value at season's end (JDM, Evoldi, Paxton, Duvall), and would have given some more tickets (we can debate how much, but even tickets are worthwhile, see Wilyer Abreau). And better draft position (2 2nd rounders rather than 2 4th rounders). And that's before burning $600,000 in international money this year. And his one approach of bringing prospects in through creative trades (JBJ for Binelas) I liked, but didn't work out and seemed to be the last attempt to do this. He's basically played it safe rather than making any fundamental moves. And many of us saw that safe at the ML level was going to be just close enough to pretend to be a contender, but not really be close, and safe on the MiLB level was just waiting for development of kids in A ball, so just far enough away to really be a 5 year window, not the 2023 is our year, no 2024 is our year, no, 2025 is our year. I was going to write that I can agree with the plan but have issues with his execution (see above about wasted opportunities), but I'm not sure whether these were execution issues or that that middle-ground/safe is the plan. In that case, I'm not sure I even agree with the plan.
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 11, 2023 18:15:00 GMT -5
I will wait until we hear something from one of the national guys... And unless its theo coming back (which will never happen) I doubt he gets fired I think we need Jarred to define "poking around." I'll add that if somehow they slip down to 5th in the AL East (i.e. "another last place finish"), all bets are off for the front office and coaching staff. I'm not in market, so don't listen to Felger, but last Wed had to pick up wife in Boston, so listed to a bit of Maseratti's baseball show. He had the Carrabis tease from the evening before. 985thesportshub.com/episodes/jared-carrabis-of-draftkings-future-of-chaim-bloom-with-the-red-sox-red-sox-vs-rays-9-06/at 6 minute mark. Says two weeks ago he was positive on Bloom's trade deadline move, says system now 5th best farm and should save job. THEN - says last week he asked someone close at Fenway about how November would play out, and guy told him he thought Chaim would not be there. Unsolicited. Asked another guy, and got same answer. From podcast, sounds like he asked a few more people, and got similar response.
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 10, 2023 17:36:45 GMT -5
Song making strong push to avoid being picked in Ruke 5 again
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 10, 2023 11:17:23 GMT -5
I had them for 74. I guess that makes me the board's pessimist. Not seeing the vision. Red Sox would need to go 3-17 the rest of the way to exceed your prediction, which seems pretty likely. In what areas has the team outperformed your preseason expectations? Justin Turner as middle order bat. Duvall/Duran in center outperformed. Casas at first, a bit. Paxton for a few starts. Bello, but only slightly. Kutter being serviceable, when I thought he would be a 5 ERA guy.
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 10, 2023 11:04:22 GMT -5
I had them for 74. I guess that makes me the board's pessimist. Not seeing the vision.
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 10, 2023 7:38:47 GMT -5
The Romero injury (and slight fall) bums me out for the kid. It highlights the issues with the system. High volatility because the players are young and unproven. Lots of "flavor of the month" movement (and I say that recognizing this site tries to minimize this by focusing on tools, not results), more, I think, than I remember in the 2015-2018 period, where the players were at higher levels, and so even if injured or slumping, didn't bob up and down as much (sort of like Mayer, now, who his far more stable despite a large hiccup). But with Bleis, Yorke, Romero, and Anthony on the plus side, is small sample sizes so lots of movement. It's one of the reasons I understand why the system may be ranked more highly due to upside, but I am less convinced because it's so far away.
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 10, 2023 5:56:07 GMT -5
Trot Nixon best case?
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 8, 2023 18:35:58 GMT -5
I’m thinking he may force Nathan Hickey off of catcher
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 6, 2023 9:26:17 GMT -5
The other point I would make about a "core" is that it may just be an aesthetic point. If you define core as being a 4-6 year group, the question is whether there is something to a fandom for knowing your players. My brother in law says he doesn't care, and 2013 comprised of one or two year rentals was just as satisfying as 2018 comprised of long timers. I have the different view, in part because I like building and projection about the future (hence my following the site) and a stable base. To me a guy like Turner is satisfying as a complementary piece, but somewhat dissatisfying as the cleanup core. Hence my focus on trading vanishing assets for longer term pieces, even if those assets are really valuable short term. That is where I seem to differ from their current theory of team building, where one or two year rentals are satisfying and yield equal value. That's an aesthetic "fan" point in which the results may be the same, but less satisfying to me.
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 6, 2023 7:18:43 GMT -5
The FO is looking to its next core of Casas, Bello, Mayer and Anthony. By the time those 4 are all up in the majors together I'm not even sure Devers is still here. Planning around a core of one top 15 prospect who has only achieved in A ball, and a top 100 kid who has also only achieved in A ball is the model of every team that drafted in the top 10, thereby ensuring themselves of enough "potential." It's also how those teams draft in the top 10 year after year, because two top 100 prospects still have a huge attrition rate, especially if they are there based on tools rather than performance (throw Bleis in there too). And even when they get to the pros, expect two years of struggles, like Henry Davis in Pitt the first pick overall and a top 10 prospect. And if your model is to get enough tickets to mitigate the huge risk, then you accumulate them at trade deadlines, rather than make things worse (last year luxury tax, this year holding on to evaporating assets Verdugo, Turner, Duvall, Paxton, (maybe even Jansen) etc.) Instead, we're half-axxing it, either deluding ourselves into thinking we're contenders, or trying to maintain the appearance that we're contenders, thereby failing to get longer range talent. I'm all for tanking to build for the future. But if you do it, do it like the year you got the kid who you are building around -- Mayer #3. Don't expect to outsmart the market by picking at 14-17 each year. This half-way approach will fail, IMO.
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 2, 2023 15:03:21 GMT -5
You also felt Buffett spent too much time in Greenville?
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