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Post by brendan98 on Dec 11, 2014 10:19:52 GMT -5
Buchholz, Kelly, Miley, Porcello. Does anyone else think that the Sox reasoning in piling up these middle of the rotation arms, could be to give them flexibility in trading one in a deal for a guy like Cueto or Hamels? I could see Buchholz, Kelly and Miley being a major piece in a deal for either team, especially Cincinatti, who does not want to punt on the season by trading Cueto, but who needs to trade Cueto or watch him walk out the door next year with nothing to show but a draft pick. Philly is a little different, but with Amaro, you never know what is going on, maybe he thinks he needs a major league piece to go along with prospects in order to sell trading Hamels to the fan base (I don’t buy that, but who knows what is going on in Amaro’s head?).
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Post by brendan98 on Dec 10, 2014 11:30:57 GMT -5
Any trade for Hamels is going to have to be an overpay, Amaro hasn’t flinched with regards to that. Despite that, my best offer, still would not include trading Xander, Mookie, Swihart, Owens, Devers, or Margot, if that is a non-starter than so be it, I’d move on.
The Sox should have enough talent with regards to quantity and quality to “overpay” on Hamels without giving up the guys above. My offer for Hamels (and Bastardo) would include:
Choice of 2 pitchers: Webster, Ranaudo, De LaRosa, Workman, Rodriguez, Barnes, Johnson Choice of 3-4 MLB & MiLB position players: Middlebrooks, Craig, Cespedes, Bradley, Victorino, Cechhini, Coyle, Marrero
Amaro could end up with: Rodriguez, De LaRosa, Marrero, Craig, Coyle, Middlebrooks – or something similar, which would be an excellent haul for Hamels & Bastardo. The Red Sox would get their #1 starter and a lefty in the pen and hang on to their very best prospects.
Am I being too much of a homer with regards to valuation of the Red Sox prospects? I feel like this is still an overpay by the Red Sox, just not one that is headlined by a blue chip prospect (depending on your feelings re Rodriguez).
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Post by brendan98 on Dec 4, 2014 11:30:26 GMT -5
I think Samardzija is the pitcher the Red Sox should trade for as soon as possible. Hopefully, Lester decides to come back to the Red Sox, and Samardzija is #2 in the rotation, but he is a guy that the Sox can go get right now, and I’m not sure why this hasn’t happened already.
It is obvious that Billy Beane is in rebuild mode, looking for young MLB players or close to MLB ready, and the Sox are loaded and arguably overloaded with these types of players: Position players: Middlebrooks, Bradley, Cechhini, Marrero, Coyle, Shaw, Swihart, Betts. Vazquez (to name a few) Pitchers: Rodriguez, Owens, Barnes, Johnson, Ranaudo, Webster, De LaRosa, Workman etc… Obviously, the Sox wouldn’t be willing to include all the names listed in a deal for Samardzija, for me I wouldn’t discuss Betts, Swihart, Owens at all, and not likely Vazquez either, but there is almost certainly still a deal to be made with the leftover players listed. The A’s need players at almost every position, if I’m the Sox and I’m dealing from the names above for Samardzija, I am not overly concerned about a perceived overpay because I am dealing from depth that has been passed up, replaced, or blocked (WMB, JBJ, Cecchini, Marrero), or pitchers who Samardzija should represent a best case scenario if we kept them and they surpassed all expectations.
The industry might view trading Rodriguez, Ranaudo, Bradley, and Marrero for Samardzija as an overpay, but I’d do it without a whole lot of hesitation. Marrero is blocked by Xander, JBJ is blocked by Castillo and Betts, Ranaudo is a back of the rotation MLB starter at best, and while Rodriguez is a tough loss he would have to hit his ceiling to approach what you are getting in Samardzija. Now obviously, I am not saying that I would just give away prospects, obviously the Sox would not and should not make an offer this rich as a starting point, but I think they should be willing to go this far to get it done (and more than likely Beane takes a lesser package before negotiations got that far. Also, the Sox would have to feel somewhat confident that an extension could be worked out with Samrdzija to keep him around past this season if you are going to give up such a package.
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Post by brendan98 on Nov 28, 2014 12:19:40 GMT -5
I’m absolutely not being sarcastic when I ask, did I miss something with regards to Tiajuan Walker? Granted I only got to see him pitch once last year when he was up with the Mariners, but he was very effective (bordering on dominant), and there was nothing about his outing that led me to believe that he was anything but what has been advertised the past several years, that being one of the best young starting pitcher prospects in baseball. Again in all seriousness, has Walker had some kind of injury or major performance issue that I did not hear about, I’ll admit I don’t pay all that much attention to what is going on with the Seattle Mariners, but this kid looks like the real deal to me?
From what I know about Walker, he is a 22 year old, that is a year removed from being a top 5 prospect in baseball, he has mid to upper 90’s velocity on his fastball, and at least 2 other above average or better pitches (curveball & cutter). I don’t believe you can project someone to be an ace (I think that has to wait until that pitcher actually proves to be that on the mound) but Walker sure has the ability to be a MLB #1 starting pitcher.
I can see Seattle trading Iwakuma for offense, he has 1 year left on his deal and is 33, but if the Mariners are really desperate enough for hitters to consider moving Walker in a deal for Cespedes or Craig plus, BC should make sure that deal gets done before Jack Z. regains his sanity. Honestly if Walker is available, I’d offer Cespedes, Craig, and any pitching prospect not named Owens or Rodriguez. If they wanted more, I’d line up WMB, Cechhini, JBJ, Coyle, Marrero, Shaw and tell them to pick one, would that be an overpay? Possibly yes, maybe even probably, but I gotta think it is worth it for a 22 year old with ace potential. Someone please enlighten me if I have overrated Walker, but honestly I don’t see any reason to believe that he is not as advertised.
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Post by brendan98 on Nov 26, 2014 12:21:32 GMT -5
The Mariners are not trading Walker (untouchable), and are not trading Paxton in any deal that doesn't include Betts or Xander.
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Post by brendan98 on Nov 13, 2014 9:45:51 GMT -5
I'm curious to know why anyone would think that Hanley would magically be able to stay healthy upon signing with the Sox?
Count me in, thinking that he would be a better player for the Sox at 3B than Sandoval, but not if he plays less than 100 games which has been the case in 3 of the last 4 years.
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Post by brendan98 on Nov 6, 2014 16:28:22 GMT -5
The Rangers have young infielders Andrus, Odor, and Profar, could we get Beltre for Cespedes and mid level prospect?
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Post by brendan98 on Sept 18, 2014 15:32:20 GMT -5
Not sure if anyone has posed the following yet (and I apologize if so), but I wonder how Pedroia would handle 3B?
Upside: It would open up a spot for Mookie at 2B, Dustin might stay healthier at 3B, and the logjam in the OF would be a little more manageable.
Downside: There would be less playing time for Holt, and likely no playing side for WMB (though that might not be so bad).
Also, I love the idea of bringing back Beltre, but doubt he is cheap (prospect wise), the contract is a little pricey but I think doable, but would Texas trade him for a package of WMB and a pitcher like Workman/Ranaudo/Webster, I am thinking not.
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Post by brendan98 on Aug 25, 2014 9:23:13 GMT -5
Another good outing for Ball yesterday, I agree it would be nice to hear a scouting report on one of his more recent outings to get an idea how how his stuff has developed, but I have to imagine that the Sox feel very good about the way his season has turned around, and likely view it as an extremely successful season in terms of his development. Salem will likely be a pretty big challenge for Ball next year, and I'd guess there will likely be some more rough patches, but with his age and inexperience I think the fact that he has shown the ability to handle some struggles and make adjustments bodes well for his future.
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Post by brendan98 on Jul 31, 2014 13:24:44 GMT -5
Craig was the best and only cards hitter I was afraid of in the ws. Kelly looks like an innings eater at 4/5 potentially at about the same age as the bucket brigade with post season experience. Qq So we go Holt(somedaymookie) Petey cespedes Papi Napoli Craig Xander Vasquez Jbj That's a lot of runs, strong Fenway lineup from the right side. We'll over 100 hr from 3/4/5/6/7 What happened to Victorino?
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Post by brendan98 on Jul 31, 2014 12:18:56 GMT -5
Can someone direct me to a credible person in baseball who thinks this is a bad haul for the Sox? I'll hang up and listen. C’mon man, could you imagine the reaction yesterday, if someone would have come out and said “wouldn’t it be great if the Sox could turn Lester and Lackey into Cespedes, Craig and Joe Kelly tomorrow.” They would have been banned from the site for life.
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Post by brendan98 on Jul 31, 2014 12:10:48 GMT -5
Quick someone take the keys away from Ben before he trades Miller to the Braves for the wrong Upton.
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Post by brendan98 on Jul 31, 2014 12:01:13 GMT -5
Gonna be fun watching Lester and Lackey face each other in the World Series!!
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Post by brendan98 on Jul 9, 2014 10:50:31 GMT -5
If we want Stanton this year, it’s going to take at least:
2 of Owens, Barnes, Webster, Ranaudo, and 2 of WMB, Cecchini, Betts, Swihart
Maybe you can get the deal done without giving up Owens or Swihart or Betts, but I find it unlikely, if I am the Marlins and I’m trading Stanton to the Sox without getting back Bogaerts, than I am holding looking to get Owens, Webster, Betts & Swihart, and I’m not sure I don’t insist on RDLR instead of Webster.
If the Sox could somehow get it done with WMB, Betts, Webster & either Barnes or Ranaudo and maybe a lotto ticket like Margot, or Vazquez instead of Swihart, I’d consider that a steal for the Red Sox.
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Post by brendan98 on Jul 8, 2014 13:11:49 GMT -5
Chavis just doubled for his first pro hit.
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Post by brendan98 on Jul 8, 2014 13:08:46 GMT -5
Devers just hits 3 run HR in 2nd game of DH.
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Post by brendan98 on Jun 27, 2014 14:25:21 GMT -5
While Owens does not have 3 + or ++ pitches, and his fastball may be a couple ticks below what you are looking for in a top of the rotation starter, and he may not have the pinpoint command that you look for to compensate for not throwing mid 90’s, everywhere he has pitched, he has been dominant. While you can’t know everything about a player from reading box scores or stat lines, you can tell from reading Owens’ that hitters have a really difficult time hitting his pitches, that is pretty much undebateable. Furthermore, the last two years, as Owens has moved up the minor league ladder, more advanced hitters have not seemed to have had any more success against him:
2013 - A & AA - 135 IP…84 H…169 K 2014 - AA - 92 IP…59 H…95 K
Looking at his 21 AA starts: 122 IP…77 H…141 K that is the kind of stat line a HS pitcher puts up, as a matter of fact it isn’t that far off from the numbers Owens put up as a HS senior 3 years ago: 77 IP…41 H…114 K, AA hitters are having nearly as difficult a time hitting Owens as HS hitters in CA did. Maybe AAA hitters will find it easier hitting Owens, or maybe it will be in MLB, but what if the guy is just really tough to hit no matter who the hitter is. I am anxious to see Owens in AAA, and see if he can continue to dominate hitters in the final test before facing MLB hitters.
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Post by brendan98 on Jun 24, 2014 15:16:21 GMT -5
I don’t have any intention of looking up tons of defensive metrics to backup my opinion, but I strongly believe that defense and run prevention is the most overlooked/undervalued part of the game. Coaching at the HS level for many years now, I’ve seen stronger offensive teams beaten by better defensive teams time and time again, if you can pitch and play defense you will be in almost every game, and that formula translates to every level of baseball.
IF Marrero’s defense at SS is as advertised, and IF he can continue his recent development offensively, my hope is that Marrero be the SS of the future. There certainly doesn’t appear to be any reason (skillset wise) to believe that Xander could not be a very good 3B (versus probably a ceiling of average as a SS).
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Post by brendan98 on Jun 6, 2014 14:25:56 GMT -5
Sounds like their is raw athletic ability and strength, but if you watch video you will see that the above assessment is probably even a bit of an understatement. Sox development guys are going to have to totally revamp that swing. Edit: So, his swing in the Perfect Game video, is much better than the game action swing that was posted on the MLB draft tracker, that is a positive.
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Post by brendan98 on Jun 6, 2014 14:18:32 GMT -5
Ugly swing
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Post by brendan98 on Jun 6, 2014 8:55:18 GMT -5
I understand the sentiment that if Swihart hits at a certain level as a catcher, that he is more valuable than if he hit at the same level as a corner OF, and I agree with it to a certain extent, however I quite frankly don’t believe that he would hit at the same level at another position. Someone brought up Mauer hitting worse since he moved off of catcher, but Mauer was moved off of catcher because the wear and tear from catching had already impacted him as a player, and I believe that is what has caused his decline not the fact that he has changed positions.
I guess what I am wondering, is what is Swihart’s ceiling as a hitter, if you take him for what he is right now (there are 22 year olds being drafted yesterday and today), and allow him to focus on his offensive development, and what would be the likelihood of him reaching that ceiling in that scenario. Swihart has made nice offensive strides each year of his professional career, there are two ways you can look at that:
1) The time he has to devote to his catching, is not hindering his offensive development or 2) Swihart has great aptitude as a hitter, and if he were able to devote more time his offensive ceiling could be a middle of the order MLB hitter
My feelings are that #2 is likely more accurate than #1, although the truth probably lies in the middle somewhere.
I believe, having Swihart catch, has slowed his development offensively, has and will limit his ultimate ceiling offensively, will dampen his athleticism from the wear and tear of the position over time, shorten both his peak and his overall career, limit the number of games he plays and at-bats he gets, and dramtically increase the possibility of injury over his career.
I realize that Swihart has put a lot of work into becoming a good catcher, as have the Red Sox, and it would undoubtedly be difficult to pull the plug on all of that, but there would be a tipping point in which the Red Sox, and anyone else would have to say that it would be worth doing, and since we don’t have anyway to know what Swihart will become as a catcher vs and what he could become at another position, the chances are slim that Swihart moves, unless Vazquez proves to be a viable offensive player to go along with his defense.
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Post by brendan98 on Jun 5, 2014 15:08:03 GMT -5
I posted several weeks ago in a different thread the idea of converting Blake Swihart to the outfield, at the time it was somewhat reliant on the development of Christian Vazquez, but since that time I’ve contemplated whether or not it would be a smart move regardless of Vazquez future projection.
Swihart’s performance in AA this year, has solidified for me the thought that he is our best hitting prospect, and by best hitting prospect I mean most complete hitting prospect. Mookie appears to have the potential to be a fantastic leadoff hitter, and Cecchini has a great approach that lends itself to a lot of solid contact and high OBP, but I don’t believe either of them fit the typical offensive profile of a 3/4/5 hitter, and the more I see of Swihart’s swing, the more I think he does have that kind of upside. That brings me back to the original topic of converting him to the outfield, as most of you know professional catchers put the majority of their practice time/preparation into the defensive and game calling aspects of their position, with whatever time is left over for the offensive side of the game. Knowing this, I am even more impressed by Swihart’s offensive development, because he has far less time to work on his hitting than his teammates. Throw on top of that, the fact that Swihart is a switch hitter, and that he has to split the time he has to work on his swing, to what really is two separate swings, and it really gets me wondering what kind of offensive leap this young man could make if so much of his time wasn’t tied up with the duties of being a catcher, and his work would be focused on being the best hitter he could be?
It was a move made by the Nationals with Harper, and while I am not suggesting Swihart’s offensive potential is quivalent to Harper’s, the Nats recognized that Harper could reach the big leagues faster as an OF, and surely must have, at the very least, considered that his offense would develop better not playing Catcher. There is a reason that Catchers are rarely in the conversation when talking about the better offensive players in the game, the Joe Mauer’s and Buster Posey’s are the exceptions at the position, most teams are thrilled to have a guy who can play strong defense at the position, call a good game, have good chemistry with the pitching staff, and not be a black hole at the plate.
I may have gone out on a limb a little, by stating that I think Swihart is our best or most complete hitting prospect, that does of course come with the caveat that I do not think he will ever reach his ceiling as a hitter if he continues playing catcher, but I’d be curious to know who everyone else considers our top hitters. I like the start that Devers is off to, and would love to see him develop into a middle of the order bat, but he’s 17 years old and doesn't factor in this conversation at this time.
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Post by brendan98 on May 28, 2014 15:01:05 GMT -5
I really like the catch and throw element of Vazquez’ game, and he seems to have, at the very least, adequate offensive ability for a catcher. As a HS baseball coach, the #1 position I would sacrifice offense for top notch defense is the catcher position. Not saying Swihart is not, or cannot become a top defensive catcher, but according to almost anyone who has offered an opinion on Vazquez, his defensive skillset would make him an excellent defensive MLB catcher right now.
I look at the current Red Sox, and the system right now, and what stands out to me like a sore thumb, is where are the impact OF’s? Not withstanding Mookie’s recent transition to the OF, it is a glaring weakness at every level of the Red Sox system. At the MLB level, I don’t expect Victorino, Gomes or Carp to be around for more than couple more years, Bradley has proven he can play the position exceptionally well (but as of yet is a bottom of the order type hitter), and who know what the future is for Nava or Sizemore (but I’d hesitate to pencil either in as a starting caliber OF in 3 years). In AAA Brentz potentially has an impact bat, but currently is struggling trying to make improvements to his plate discipline, Henry Ramos is an interesting guy to watch in AA, and Margot is a guy to keep an eye on in A Ball, but even throwing Betts into that equation, the cupboard still feels pretty bare. To tie this into the Vazquez/Swihart thread, I really want to see Vazquez become a MLB starting caliber catcher, because I think Swihart’s athleticism could translate well to RF. I realize, much like the Xander to 3B argument, Swihart loses value in the OF, but if Vazquez can handle catcher, I am more than fine with that potential loss of positional value for Swihart, especially since I think it would allow his offensive development to accelerate and it would likely allow him to play in more games and stay healthier than he would as a catcher. I think that most projections that I’ve seen for Swihart’s potential offensively, are probably understated due to the position he plays, the kid is sporting a .480 slg% right now, and from what I understand his HR’s are laser beams (not moonshots), and while there is no guarantee that the kid will learn to elevate the ball, it is often something that happens quite naturally. I feel like as he continues to mature physically, Swihart would be the type of hitter to hit 20+ HR’s annually, if he were playing a position other than catcher.
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Post by brendan98 on May 1, 2014 9:47:51 GMT -5
1 Betts 2 Swihart 3 Owens 4 Cecchini 5 Barnes
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Post by brendan98 on Apr 23, 2014 10:52:16 GMT -5
I’d like to see Mookie become a Chone Figgins type of player for the Sox, and other than Figgins being a switch hitter I think he is probably a great comp for Mookie with regards to both physical stature and skill set. In his years with the Angels, Figgins was one of the most dynamic and versatile players in baseball, and I think Betts compares favorably to Figgins in a lot of ways. Just from memory, Figgins was an above average 2B, an average to slightly above average 3B, and an athletic outfielder who played most of his OF games CF. I’d love to see Mookie learn to play a good OF, and develop into a similar type player to Figgins for the Sox.
Offensively, Figgins and Betts profiles are similar, fast twitch athletes, advanced approach high OBP hitters, dangerous on the bases, and surprising power for their size (Figgins 5’8” / Betts 5’9”).
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