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Post by brendan98 on Mar 19, 2014 13:19:46 GMT -5
If I remember right, Xander has been a slow starter in his young professional baseball career. Might be a tough 1st month offensively, especially with the cold weather factored in.
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Post by brendan98 on Jan 9, 2014 10:28:59 GMT -5
Acquiring Stanton is going to cost the Sox either:
1)Xander and at least 2 more of our top 10 prospects or 2)4 to 6 of our prospects 2-10
This will be the case regardless of whether or not we get another team involved. We are not getting Stanton anytime soon, I say this because I don’t think BC is interested in trading away that much young talent, but if we did make a trade the names wouldn’t be Rijo, Lavarnway, Coyle, Brentz, Lackey, Dempster, Johnson. The names that would have to be in the mix would be: Xander, Cecchini, Swihart, Owens, Barnes, Webster, Betts, Doubront, Middlebrooks
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Post by brendan98 on Dec 24, 2013 9:50:03 GMT -5
Honestly, how much stock should anyone really put into a HS draftees abbreviated 1st season following them being drafted and signed. Think about all of the other adjustments that these kids are making that, I have to imagine are for some of these kids far more difficult than playing baseball.
Also, I am pretty sure I remember reading something about Denney saying something to the effect of --- he got into some bad habits approach wise in his HS senior season, resulting from teams pitching around him, and was working on getting his approach back. This could certainly be part of any poor scouting looks that he might have gotten in his time in the GCL.
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Post by brendan98 on Dec 20, 2013 10:14:16 GMT -5
Drew is a solid No, roll with Xander at SS, and WMB at 3B this year, if WMB does not make the necessary adjustments, Cechhini should be ready by 2015 (if not sooner).
Wouldn't hate signing Choo, but just don't see him as a $20M per year level player, so No.
Best case scenario, WMB is healthy enough and makes enough improvement with his approach next season to solidify his status as Sox 3B for years to come, and makes Cechhini a corner OF whose offensive game profiles very favorably to Choo.
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Post by brendan98 on Dec 9, 2013 13:51:52 GMT -5
I am kind of indifferent to the idea of trading for Stanton, obviously he would be a great addition, but I think we are kidding ourselves if we think that his price tag is going to be reasonable in terms of prospects, or in terms of what we would need to pay him to keep him in Boston for the next 10 years, and we would have to wrap him up to a long term deal with the talent we would have to give up to acquire him.
I think any deal would require multiple major league or close to major league ready players, think 2 or 3 of Doubront, Owens, Webster, Barnes, RDLR, Ranaudo, Workman on the pitching side, and 2 or 3 of WMB, Cecchini, Bradley, Swihart, Bogaerts (obviously not happening), Betts, Marrero. The Marlins are not taking Lackey, Dempster, or Peavy as a major part of a deal for Stanton, Nava and Brentz would also be little more than throw ins to them as well. Anybody who thinks we can acquire Stanton for Lackey, Nava, Ranaudo, Brentz and Betts (or something similar to that) is seriously delusional, we are not even in the conversation with a package of players like that.
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Post by brendan98 on Dec 5, 2013 15:54:09 GMT -5
There is no reason you could not keep Gomes and sign Davis, in terms of maximizing the production from the outfield signing Davis would be a solid addition to what the Sox already have. It would allow for a L/R platoon in both CF and LF with Bradley and Davis in CF, and Nava and Gomes in LF, on paper it makes a lot of sense. Realistically, Farrell is not going to limit Gomes to the LHP portion of at-bats in a straight up platoon, but I still think adding Davis could be valuable, as a platoon option for Bradley vs LHP if necessary, and as a Quentin Berry type presence on the bench when he is not in the lineup. Because of roster limits (four bench players, two of which are the backup C and INF), you can't add Davis to the current Red Sox roster unless you forgo signing a first baseman and let Nava/Carp take the job. Forgot about Carp.
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Post by brendan98 on Dec 5, 2013 15:32:39 GMT -5
There is no reason you could not keep Gomes and sign Davis, in terms of maximizing the production from the outfield signing Davis would be a solid addition to what the Sox already have. It would allow for a L/R platoon in both CF and LF with Bradley and Davis in CF, and Nava and Gomes in LF, on paper it makes a lot of sense. Realistically, Farrell is not going to limit Gomes to the LHP portion of at-bats in a straight up platoon, but I still think adding Davis could be valuable, as a platoon option for Bradley vs LHP if necessary, and as a Quentin Berry type presence on the bench when he is not in the lineup.
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Post by brendan98 on Dec 5, 2013 14:47:12 GMT -5
Thanks, just went back and read it, the rule changes were not good timing for the Sox.
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Post by brendan98 on Dec 5, 2013 14:42:07 GMT -5
So hard to predict a line for WMB, as he continues to try to adjust to how pitchers are attacking him, I think you he could end up with anything between .230/.290/.440 and .280/.330/.520, more than likely he will have his ups and downs, and the frequency and length of the downs will determine how many AB's he gets.
I would understand including WMB in a deal for a player that will help this team, and while I like Middlebrook's and think he will be a good and possibly great player down the line, I would be fine with the Sox trading him in the right deal. What I do not want to see is the Sox trading him to try to create room for Xander or Cecchini or Drew, etc.. WMB oozes right handed power, which is something that is becoming rarer and rarer in the post steroid era, if the Sox cannot get appropriate compensation for him, they should hang on to him and see if he can develop his approach enough to become a legit big league power hitting corner IF.
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Post by brendan98 on Dec 5, 2013 14:27:05 GMT -5
As of right now, the Red Sox would have the 18th pick in the draft (from the Yankees for sign Ellsbury), is that correct?
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Post by brendan98 on Dec 5, 2013 13:53:56 GMT -5
How great is it to have 2 outstanding catching prospects that will be in the upper level of the minors this season? I would like to know which one of Vazquez and Swihart best profiles to be the Red Sox long term answer at catcher after a stopgap season with AJP and Ross handling catching duites?
I like Vazquez, the potentially elite defense and strong OBP, would be a rare combo at the position IMO.
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Post by brendan98 on Nov 13, 2013 12:58:03 GMT -5
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Post by brendan98 on Nov 7, 2013 15:28:01 GMT -5
#1 Cecchini - If he can maintain .400+ OBP, I don’t think it matters if his power #’s go up.
#2 Webster – The stuff is undeniable, but the control still needs to come around.
#3 Owens – Not as much stuff as Webster, similar control issue, youth has me thinking there is a better chance for control to come.
#4 Swihart – Expecting an adjustment period at AA, if he gets through it quickly could be in conversation for the top spot on this list by midseason, I think end of season is more likely however.
#5 - #8 – Barnes/De La Rosa/Ranaudo/Ball – any of these guys could easily become top pitcher in the system next year, but they are all behind Webster and Owens as of right now.
#9 Betts – putting Betts this low only because he had his 1st real success last season, if he proves that it wasn’t just catching lightning in a bottle, he will be higher. At this point, I can’t help but think Donnie Sadler type projection when I think of Betts, last season gives me hope for much more however.
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Post by brendan98 on Sept 24, 2013 15:05:59 GMT -5
Is anyone else concerned that Barnes' innings pitched decreased from 2012 to 2013? I would have thought that Barnes would throw about 140 innings in 2013, after pitching 120 innings in 2012, but he wound up with 113 innings pitch in 2013, in 25 starts. Is this because he failed to pitch deep into games in a quite a few of his outings in 2013? I think that this could really limit any impact he might make in Boston next year, if he performs well in AAA.
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Post by brendan98 on Sept 24, 2013 14:47:50 GMT -5
The Marlins price tag for Fernandez would start at Xander Bogaerts.
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Post by brendan98 on Sept 10, 2013 21:38:06 GMT -5
I wouldn't say WMB is any sure thing yet. He struggled mightily, went to Pawtucket and made adjustments, came back and has succeeded some now. We will see next year how he does after MLB pitchers adjust to his own adjustments. WMB still has a huge swing and does not walk much. If he can readjust again (which will happen) think his future will probably be at 1b if the Sox hang onto Cecchini, or I am hoping to. Cecchini is not a hitter with a massive swing prone to long slumps in that regard. Sort of like a Boggs type in a way that would love to see ASAP. I keep seeing this, but it just isn't true, watch video of WMB hitting, he has a compact stroke and generates a ton of bat speed. He still have adjustments to make with his approach, and that is his big concern, but the swing mechanics are very good, superior to those of Cecchini as a matter of fact, though Cecchini has a huge edge with regards to approach. Also, WMB is a superior defensive 3B, unless that changes I don't see him moving to 1B for Cecchini.
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Post by brendan98 on Sept 10, 2013 15:05:09 GMT -5
Middlebrooks resurgence since being recalled, likely makes him the frontrunner for 3rd baseman of the future again. Bogaerts looks very capable of handling SS, so I think that it is extremely likely that they are the left side of the infield in 2014. While I am not nearly as certain about WMB being a sure thing, at least compared to Xander, it is looking like he has a pretty good chance of being the guy for the foreseeable future. If this plays out as so, when is the appropriate time to begin working Cecchini at another position, and what position might that be based upon his abilities? Based on his offensive ability, it appears that Cecchini could be MLB ready at some point next year, if his bat is capable of moving that quickly, I’d hope the Red Sox start breaking him in at a new position starting in the AFL. My guess is that he will either transition to 1B or LF, with the possibility that he is athletic enough to play RF somewhere down the line with more experience in the OF. Cecchini could likely be a plus 1B defensively, he would not have prototypical power, but it seems his offensive game is anything but prototypical, and with well above average power coming from 3B/SS/2B, I think Cecchini’s offensive skill set is fine. OF is also a somewhat intriguing possibility, other than Bradley there are no sure things with the Red Sox OF prospects, converting Cecchini would give the Sox another just about as close as you are going to get sure thing in the OF. I’d like to know others thoughts on this.
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Post by brendan98 on Aug 30, 2013 22:51:34 GMT -5
3 more hitless innings today, Myles Smith has not given up a hit since his first outing of the season (and career). He has now pitched 11 innings and given up 1 hit, he issued his first 2 walks today, and now has 2 BB and 11 K on the season, his BA against is something ridiculous like .033. Not saying it means anything, but I am glad the Sox got him signed.
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Post by brendan98 on Aug 30, 2013 10:08:17 GMT -5
It is really interesting to note the differences in opinion with regard to Owens, he might be becoming the Sox most polarizing prospect. Last year, in his first pro season, his strikeout rate was enough to at least make you take notice, but his performance this year, especially considering his youth in relation to the competition, has been nothing short of dominant, I don’t think that anyone can argue that. I have not seen Owens pitch, but have seen numerous scouting reports, and can definitely understand the tempering of expectations when the scouting report indicates average fastball velocity, with average to below average command. Regardless of Owens having pretty untouchable stuff, that combination does not suggest future frontline MLB starter. Based on that, I would say, that if Owens’ statistics this season were flipped, ie… he started the year in Salem with 5 starts, a 1.09 ERA, a .141 BA against, and striking out nearly 14 batters every nine innings, and then went to Portland and posted a 2.92 ERA, a .180 BA against, and striking out 10..5 per nine, over 20 starts, than I would say that the more advanced hitters in AA are having a lot more success against Owens (even if only in comparison to the 5 starts in Hi-A). That scenario would lead me to believe that as Owens keeps moving up the ladder, facing hitters that have a better approach, better plate discipline, and that are just more talented overall hitters, his stats would continue to trend back to that of a pitcher with average fastball velocity and below average command. That whole scenario, of course, is backwards, Owens first 20 starts in Salem led to the lesser stats, while the video game numbers were posted in his first 5 AA starts, and while I am fully aware that 5 starts is a very SSS, the ability to dominate competition is what it is, he has given up less than a hit every other inning, and approximately half his outs have come via strikeout, not to mention only giving up 3 ER in 5 games. Will there be some regression in AA? Almost certainly, but right now Owens is one of the youngest pitchers in AA, he has blown through 3 levels in his first 2 pro seasons, he has been about as dominant as any pitcher in all of baseball this season, and he has only become more dominant after being promoted to AA (which is usually where you start to separate the prospects from the suspects).
Throwing the term “ace” out there when talking about a minor league pitcher is really pretty silly, a #1 pitcher in AA, is not guaranteed to be a #1 in AAA, let alone the big leagues. To me an ace is a guy with a significant track record of being a dominant MLB starting pitcher, a guy who nearly always pitches deep into games and gives his team a chance to win. So does Henry Owens have a realistic chance to be a guy like that? I think he does, and the reason goes back to him consistently showing throughout his brief career, the ability to dominate opposing hitters. Then the next question becomes how likely is it that Owens becomes that kind of pitcher? The answer there is what I think is so debateable and so polarizing, and to be honest I don’t have any comfort level in predicting that other than to say that it is somewhere between 1% and 99%. If I were forced to take a guess I’d probably say 5%, not because I don’t think Owens is a great prospect, but simply because those types of guys are so rare, and even if Owens became a future #2 that is an incredibly valuable player. After all that, there is still the factor of projection for Owens, will he add velocity (and how much could he add), can he harness his control (and by how much can he improve it), those are things that we have 0% ability to predict, and they are critical if you are trying to figure out what Owens’ ceiling might be, and the odds that he might reach it. Fortunately, it seems like the Sox are very high on Owens, so I think we are going to get to watch him develop over the next couple of seasons, and I am definitely excited to see how all this plays out, and what kind of career this kid has.
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Post by brendan98 on Aug 24, 2013 22:13:28 GMT -5
Myles Smith with 3 perfect innings today, he has been very good in his first 4 professional outings, even if he is older than his competition.
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Post by brendan98 on Aug 2, 2013 15:43:56 GMT -5
It's his strikeout rate! It's his strikeout rate! Which is partly plate discipline and partly pitch recognition. Or maybe those are two parts of the same animal anyway. He also has a longish swing-- many of his home runs are driven out to right-center, and he's not really a pull power guy. That long swing means there's some hit-and-miss in his swing, especially when it's compounded with his weak pitch recognition. Frankly, I'm more concerned with his high K rate than the low BB rate. He'll never walk much, but he needs to get his strikeout rate in the 20% range to maintain a passable OBP and let his power play up. I do not agree that Middlebrooks has a long or longish swing. I am a hitting coach, and WMB's swing is one of the best strokes in all of MLB, it is compact, he creates excellent torque and bat speed, and he does a great job keeping his hands inside the baseball. I will agree all day that his free swinging approach is a big problem, but his swing is a thing of beauty.
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Post by brendan98 on Aug 2, 2013 15:37:48 GMT -5
So the Rays have been a very competitive team over the past several seasons, due mainly to the pipeline of talented starting pitchers that they have developed. It has been an extraordinarily successful recipe for John Maddon's ballclub.
I am not saying that the Sox are trying to copy that strategy, however I think that the Sox are starting to stockpile arms similiar to what the Rays have been so successful doing. I do not know if the group of arms that is progressing through our farm system has as high a ceiling as some of the starters the Rays have developed recently, but the number of quality arms up and down the system seems to be at an all time high, as far back as my memory goes anyhow (til at least the early 80's).
Just listing off the top of my head, the guys that have me excited or at least have piqued my interest:
Higher Levels Workman, Barnes, Webster, De LaRosa, Ranaudo, Owens
Lower Levels Callahan, Kukuk, Buttrey, Ball, McGrath, Stankiewicz
There are probably a few more high upside arms as well, again this is just rattling names off the top of my head, but if 50% of the upper level guys pan out, and 25% of the lower level guys develop, the Sox will have a pretty impressive pipeline of pitching on it's way.
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Post by brendan98 on Aug 2, 2013 13:14:18 GMT -5
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Post by brendan98 on Aug 1, 2013 10:59:44 GMT -5
Dream scenario, the Sox re-sign Ellsbury and spend to bring back Napoli and improve at catcher:
1) Ellsbury CF 2) Victorino RF 3) Pedroia 2B 4) Ortiz DH 5) Napoli 1B 6) McCann C 7) Gomes/Carp LF 8) Xander SS 9) Middlebrooks 3B
McCann is the big addition, he fits what the Red Sox try to do offensively, he will also cost a lot, so the Sox would likely have to shed some payroll in order to afford to afford he, Ellsbury and Napoli, this could be done by trading one of the a surplus of starting pitchers that are making big $$ (my order of preference would be Dempster/Peavy/Lackey/Lester). Nava would be in the mix in the OF and at 1B, Holt would be the utility infielder. Ross would backup McCann.
More than likely, if Ellsbury can be resigned, the Sox will go cheaper at other positions:
1) Ellsbury CF 2) Victorino RF 3) Pedroia 2B 4) Ortiz DH 5) Carp/Nava 1B 6) Gomes/Nava LF 7) Xander SS 8) Middlebrooks 3B 9) Salty/Ross/Lavarnway C (Depending on how big a deal Salty commands)
If the Sox decide not to overspend on Ellsbury:
1) Victorino RF 2) Pedroia 2B 3) Ortiz DH 4) Napoli 1B 5) McCann C 6) Gomes/Carp LF 7) Xander SS 8) Middlebrooks 3B 9) Bradley CF
With $34 M coming off the books (Ellsbury, Drew, Hanrahan, Bailey, Salty) the Sox can spend to bring in McCann, and bring back Napoli. I think it is too much to bat JBJ leadoff, but he could eventually grow into the role as the season progresses, just as Xander and/or WMB could move up in the order as they develop.
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Post by brendan98 on Jul 31, 2013 21:37:11 GMT -5
Very exciting for us all having a nice crop of potential stud starters. Me personally and I may be way off but I think Webster has the highest floor out of them all (hes got to get his control worked out, good start today). Rubby I think has the highest ceiling, based on mostly what industry folks are saying, I have seen him limited in person, most of that has been when he was with the dodgers the rest has been video. Owens I think has the next highest ceiling of this next group followed by Barnes I guess. Anyway exciting times, glad we didn't have to trade any of these guys in the deal for Peavy. Workman. Callahan Kidding, but a pretty nice run he is on in the last 2 starts!!
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