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Post by taftreign on Aug 29, 2013 21:28:01 GMT -5
Clearly Barnes wasn't being challenged enough at Portland and needed a higher level of competition!
Perhaps its just my perception but I don't remember a year that has seen the team be more aggressive in promoting prospects. Not only have numerous players advanced but many seem to have handled the transitions well. Could simply be a case of determining which players will be added to or remain on the 40, determining which will be trade bait, assessing which positions will need addressed in the off season free agency market vs filled by the farm system, or simply a reflection of the depth in the system "pushing" other players up to the next level to prevent holding players back. It has been a very promising year on the Red Sox farm. Great anticipation for next year.
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Post by taftreign on Aug 25, 2013 22:06:52 GMT -5
surprised Margot is out of the top 20. Agreed. I think he's ahead of Wilson and Denney right now. I like him in the mix of Brian Johnson, Betts and Stankiewicz. On pure upside as an 18 year old I think he would rank just outside the top 10. In reality though he's not that far away from approaching the top 10. You have to figure by this time next year Bogaerts and Bradley Jr graduate from the list. You also have a chance that Workman or Britton could graduate if they start the year in the Boston pen. Wouldn't be shocked to see a prospect or two ahead of him traded in the offseason or at the All-Star break if the right player becomes available. And perhaps unlikely but if all those happened you would have 5 or 6 players off the list and Margot would be sitting 14 or 15 without "passing" anyone. Greenville is going to be so much more watchable next season with the likes of Margot patrolling CF. I expect a big year from in 2014 aided by a little physical development. Onward and upward Manuel.
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Post by taftreign on Aug 19, 2013 23:10:29 GMT -5
I don't think Dan Butler would clear waivers though.
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Post by taftreign on Aug 19, 2013 22:59:27 GMT -5
Can't help but be excited about what the future may hold for Blake Swihart. He has made tremendous strides both at the plate and behind it. Looking forward to watching his progression next season in Portland.
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Post by taftreign on Aug 19, 2013 22:30:58 GMT -5
However, we're only comparing him to 20 year old Cabrera, not triple crown Cabrera. I understand that, my point is that performance/stats are only one part of the equation. We know now Cabrera's raw talent/ability is Hall of Fame caliber. We don't know that about Xander. To expect or even think it's likely that he even comes close to what Cabrera did in the majors at 20 simply because of unadjusted minor league stats is not realistic or fair , imo. My intention isn't to project Bogaerts future with Cabreras career but just to state Xanders progression has been more in line with Cabrera than Trout. Both advanced through the minors on a similar timeline. Xander's tools are also more inline with Cabrera as a prospect vs. Trout who's game has a much larger speed component. Not that Trout is an unrealistic comparison. I don't think its unrealistic either to expect a .265/.325/.468 type of line if he gets semi regular at bats with maybe 3 or 4 HRs. Don't read too much into the comparison outside of the initial year.
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Post by taftreign on Aug 19, 2013 15:30:59 GMT -5
Instead of Trout I was thinking more along the lines of another 20 year old who came up during a playoff run.
Miguel Cabrera came up to the Marlins as a 20 year old straight from AA where he posted a .365/.429/.609 line with 10 HRs and 31 BBs vs 49 Ks in 69 games. He then hit .268/.325/.468 with 12 Hrs and 25 BBs vs 84 Ks in 87 MLB games. All in helping the Marlins defeat the Yankees 4 games to 2 in the World Series.
Bogaerts AA line this season before being promoted to Pawtucket was .311/.407/.502 with 6 HRs and 35 BBs to 51 Ks in 56 games. Taking into account the 13 less games I think he posted equivalent stats and with the AAA bridge think he could post similar scaled numbers to Cabrera's 2003 debut in the Majors for the remainder of the season if given enough ABs. Xander won't get 87 games this late in the year but I could see similar ratios with a little pop.
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Post by taftreign on Aug 12, 2013 22:38:35 GMT -5
No matter how long it should take Abreu to clear I don't think MLB would allow it to occur until the playoff eligible period ends. Adding a potential bat like Abreu's to the market that could impact a team entering the playoffs could cause chaos and animosity.
As for signing Abreu in the offseason I don't see how it can be construed as a negative. I don't like to say it's only money but in some regards that is the truth. A 4 year deal with a slightly higher AAV is more appealing than a longer deal with a lower AAV both for Boston and Abreu.
As for alternatives mentioned in this post my favorites are trading for Belt who for some reason SF still hasn't taken too and I think would be a tremendous addition. The other was the idea of signing Abreu and adding him to a package to get Stanton although the team may need to eat a small portion of the contract in this scenario.
General thoughts on a few teams mentioned:
Texas is the biggest threat to sign Abreau because they have money and have shown a willingness to "go for it."
Baltimore "could" be a big threat if they choose to address the DH spot over pitching. They have $10 mil for Roberts coming off the books, $6 mil for Feldman and $6.75 mil for Hammel. Those contracts would easily free up the money to sign Abreu and fill one of the worst DH production spots in the AL. But I have to think the team is focused on the need to resign Weiters next season and locking up Machado early. If the team chooses to spend money I'd also bet its to add a pitcher like Garza to lead the rotation for the next few season while Gausman progresses and Bundy gets healthy.
Abreu does seem to fit the profile of the Chi Sox as he could fall somewhere in the Dunn/Konerko type.
Not sure if Seattle is still looking for a bat. Montero's suspension for PED's could force a decision on him sooner rather than later but the team seems to have finally seen Smoak come along and I'm not sure you want to mess with it. Also it may be better to sign the one you know in Morales vs the unknown Abreu.
Toronto didn't have success spending big money last year. Wonder if they have a free agent hangover.
The Mets do make sense as Ike hasn't proven himself and they might be able to get a low level prospect back from a team who will take a chance on him. Abreu would draw ratings and add another international flare to the big market.
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Post by taftreign on Aug 8, 2013 22:53:52 GMT -5
Is anyone aware if a player accepting a QO with the guaranteed salary able to afterward negotiate a "replacement" deal. For instance if a team takes the risk on a QO and the player accepts could the team go to the player and say would you be willing to "tear up" the old contract and replace it with a 2 year deal for 20 million? Is this specifically legislated out? If not it would make the risk more palatable if the team believed the player would be willing to sign a multiyear deal at less AAV. Specifically this thought crossed my mind with Salty. There's a chance the team could get a pick if he signs elsewhere but if he accepted I could see him being willing to take a two year deal for a little less per year and it wouldn't really block Vazquez over the course of the term.
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Post by taftreign on Aug 6, 2013 23:19:35 GMT -5
Ellsbury may not be a power bat by any means but does anyone else get the feeling he's going to go on a little run here. By the end of August I can see him sitting with 12 or 13 HRs.
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Post by taftreign on Aug 6, 2013 23:15:21 GMT -5
Brian McCann does have to be considered an option this offseason. However losing a 1st rounder for McCann does give me pause. I would only give up a pick if the player signed can not only improve the team but significantly improve the team.
The other issue I'd have is if he wants 5 years. I believe after next year with Vazquez getting AAA time and Swihart AA time we will have a pretty solid idea of how much they have to offer. Vazquez should be at least a backup in 2015 with his solid defense and Swihart a year to a year and a half behind that.
I'm fine with Salty as the starter and Ross as the backup next year. Package Lavarnway with another prospect or two in the off season to add another piece. Maybe clear a 40 man spot or two in the process. Use Butler as the 3rd.
The other option to sign McCann is contingent. I'd rather not lose the 1st rounder unless the team gets one back in addition to the Ellsbury pick. Get him signed on a 4 year or less deal. Dependent on when Ortiz chooses to retire plan on two solid catching years from McCann as a starter. After that McCann can split time at catcher with Vazquez and play other games as the DH. This scenario can work.
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Post by taftreign on Aug 6, 2013 22:35:10 GMT -5
With the solid pitching depth at the upper levels of the farm system it would be tempting to have Brian Johnson as a 1B prospect. Problem is he is pitching too darn well and his greater value is still as a solid inning eating #4/5.
As for the current option I'd much rather stick with Napoli and Carp then do anything that requires giving up a 1st round pick in FA.
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Post by taftreign on Aug 4, 2013 10:56:48 GMT -5
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Post by taftreign on Aug 1, 2013 21:41:27 GMT -5
I think we were all waiting to see what happened before posting so as not to jinx it haha This!
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Post by taftreign on Aug 1, 2013 21:39:35 GMT -5
Heart! Just no quit in this team. Have to echo ray. This team is fun to watch. Despite a dreadful start from Dempster they never stopped. Ben's greatest offseason accomplishment was redefining the clubhouse culture.
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Post by taftreign on Jul 31, 2013 22:46:33 GMT -5
To me the biggest part of the Bud Norris deal was that Baltimore traded the competitive balance pick. This past draft that pick had a value of $1,587,700 towards the Marlins draft pool. While Hoes and Hader have a chance to help the big club in some form neither appear to be potential stars in my opinion but Houston can use the extra pick and dollars to acquire a solid prospect in what is expected to be a strong draft.
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Post by taftreign on Jul 31, 2013 22:22:25 GMT -5
Jrrusso: I actually think it is more beneficial for Ranaudo to finish the year in Portland. First after last seasons injury his increased workload could lead him to have potential struggles down the stretch which is best handled at his current level. Secondly, and this goes for Barnes as well, the team is in the playoff hunt and that atmosphere is something many minor leaguers don't get to experience. And while Pawtucket also is in the playoff hunt I think a team would like a player to finish what they started.
In regards to Barnes it appears he has made a few corrections and should have his ERA under 4.00 shortly and those who freaked out when it was around 5.00 can officially settle down. Honestly I think the best upside starters are De La Rosa (with a chance he's a future closer instead), Owens and then Barnes. I'd follow them up with a tie in Webster and Ranaudo.
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Post by taftreign on Jul 31, 2013 21:51:11 GMT -5
While it lasts that is one scary AA pitching rotation. Ranaudo, Barnes and Owens. Going be a tough series for a few teams in the following weeks.
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Post by taftreign on Jul 31, 2013 12:50:31 GMT -5
When is Peavy slated to make his 1st start? Let's assume Peavy is already in Boston and has taken his physical. Lackey is scheduled for toninght. My guess is that he goes tomorrow in place of Dempster. Jake was supposed to start last night, so he's delayed by two days. It's Lester's turn after that against the Phoenix. Yes. With the way Workman has been going I'd personally agree with slating Peavy in for Dempster and moving Dempster to the pen for the time being leaving Workman to get a few more starts in the rotation. I want to see how he progresses for a few more weeks.
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Post by taftreign on Jul 31, 2013 10:48:08 GMT -5
This is more a comment for a trade in the off season or next season. If both Betts and Rijo continue raising their value with outstanding play at 2B and have no other position options all in combination with Pedroia being locked up long term could we see the mystical challenge trade. There are more than a few teams with holes at 2B who may be willing to deal from a position of there depth in a prospect for prospect trade. Probably unlikely but if they grow to both hold decent prospect status it makes no sense to hold them both as bench utility players. More likely scenario is to trade Betts and keep Rijo who is still very young and could be "strung" along for several years as he takes his time through the system and could still be a realistic replacement (emphasis on could as it still requires much development) for Pedroia down the road (although he'd be 25 or 26 until he played fairly regularly). Just spit-balling here but realistically in a best case scenario what happens with Betts and Rijo?
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Post by taftreign on Jul 31, 2013 10:13:04 GMT -5
Ellsbury is the only lock IMO for a qualifying offer. Napoli is 2nd most likely if he at least continues with the power. Salty may be on the team out of need but more likely the team would sign him to a much lower $ contract than risk the likelihood he accepts. Drew is only here if the team feels Bogaerts isn't ready to handle SS or need him at 3B. A little along the lines of the Machado/Hardy situation although I'd take Hardy over Drew.
Anyway the reason I wanted to post was that 2013 may have some intrigue but I was thinking after the Peavy trade, assuming no player or vesting options kick in, that the 2014 qualifying offers will be crazier. Not only to you have Big Papi up after the 14 season but most of the pitching staff in Lester, Peavy, Lackey, and Dempster all of whom could see a qualifying offer if not previously extended. Then you have Thorton, Uehara, Gomes, Ross, Bailey, Morales and Miller who I don't expect would come close to sniffing an offer. But with the first 5 players mentioned it will be worth watching how it plays out.
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Post by taftreign on Jul 31, 2013 0:35:24 GMT -5
www.baseballamerica.com/draft/ask-ba-2013-draftees-midseason-top-50/Jim Callis using Garin Cecchini as a reference for Colin Moran. Colin Moran, 3b, Marlins (No. 6). Moran was the best pure hitter in the 2013 draft and I see him as a slightly less athletic version of Red Sox third baseman Gavin Cecchini, who was No. 41 on the midseason Top 50 and would be bumped down to No. 46 with the addition of draftees. Moran would fit at No. 49, behind Cecchini, Blue Jays righthander Aaron Sanchez and Phillies lefthander Jesse Biddle, and just ahead of Cubs third baseman Mike Olt. The international crop was lackluster as well this summer, and I wouldn’t put any of those players on the Top 50 at this point. BA’s Ben Badler ranked Dominican outfielder Eloy Jimenez as the best international talent this summer, but Ben also noted that there was no consensus top prospect.
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Post by taftreign on Jul 30, 2013 23:47:04 GMT -5
I suggested the same possibility in the Peavy post earlier. I prefer the starting pitching depth over trading but if you move Peavy in the off season you clear the salary and could get a decent prospect back which could perhaps be more than Iglesias. Although letting Peavy pitch in 14 and collecting a comp Supplemental 1st rounder isn't a bad alternative either as I also mentioned earlier. More likely Dempster would be dealt as he makes just a only little less than Peavy and likely wouldn't get a qualifying offer in the end.
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Post by taftreign on Jul 30, 2013 23:42:16 GMT -5
"3B for this team now though?" ------------------------------------- WMB gets a short window after returning (now or soon). He either gets it done this time or he won't hold off X I love the look of the bold X. Nice!
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Post by taftreign on Jul 30, 2013 23:40:51 GMT -5
I do want to remind everyone that Jose Iglesias, light-hitting though he may be, is probably no worse than an averagish shortstop if given a full season's worth of at-bats. He makes enough contact to sustain a batting average at least in the .250 range, with improving plate discipline and truly elite defense. That's a real asset, even if he was inevitably going to be displaced by Xander in Boston. It's a price I'm happy to pay for a well above-average pitcher in Peavy, but it's not like he was a throwaway piece. Yup. I wish Iglesias all the best in Detriot, where he will in all likelihood start his collection of gold glove awards. Except the voters think a Gold Glove SS has to be an above average hitter also. #Morons
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Post by taftreign on Jul 30, 2013 23:38:13 GMT -5
Now Orioles can overeact to get Cliff Lee and send Bundy and Gausman to Philly!
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