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Post by taftreign on Nov 15, 2013 8:10:45 GMT -5
Apparently Logan Morrison has drawn decent trade interest in Miami. I wonder if the Red Sox have checked in here. A left handed hitting 1B/LF. Perhaps a fallback option if they don't retain Napoli.
?@ken_Rosenthal Sources tell me and @jonmorosi that #Marlins are drawing significant trade interest in Logan Morrison. No deal close, Marlins listening…
And yes I'm aware Carp is a left handed hitting 1B/LF. But the team could view him as an upgrade and ship out Carp.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 14, 2013 22:31:53 GMT -5
I'm not sure why Pittsburgh would want to really give up much for Dempster at his current salary? Not only would he result in a large hit to Pittsburgh's salary cap but they also have an option like Jameson Taillon in AAA or a pitcher like Kazmir who the team could have for 2 years and 16 mil or so. The only scenario that I could even fathom this would be one in which Pittsburgh has to give up neither a major league piece nor minor league piece. Maybe if the Sox eat about 6 mil or 7 mil of his 13.25 mil salary they could pry the Pirates' Competitive Balance Round B pick from them. This would have to occur at the very end of free agency after the Pirates have exhausted all other options.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 14, 2013 22:17:37 GMT -5
Only a one-year deal worth I'm not buying this but if it's true they must really want the pick. Napoli--obviously-- isn't taking one year and I don't even think the RS would offer this as an opener. Agreed Napoli would not accept a one year offer after an impressive year in the power department and surprisingly good defense but I could see the team throwing out a 1 year at 18 mil type of offer to start particularly if no other team has offered anything to date or interest has been limited. Have we heard any legitimate interest for him outside of Colorado to this point? (Granted I'm not naive enough to expect there won't be teams that come calling in the future) It would have to be an out of proportion dollar amount vs expectations. He is likely looking at 14 or 15 mil per year on a multi year deal. Question is what would the premium need to be to even consider it? 1 year and 20 mil? Realistically though this is his probably his best leverage to get a three or four year deal going forward.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 14, 2013 21:53:28 GMT -5
Looks like it was all wishful thinking. The issue with the posting system seems to be a few of the small market clubs wanted the posting fee to be included in the cap for luxury tax purposes. However to change this the league would have to reopen the CBA and they are unwilling to do so. Teams will fall in line and this thing is going to get hammered out with a few minor changes from the existing rules. twitter.com/FeinsandNYDNMark Feinsand ?@feinsandnydn 3h The MLB/Japan posting process is not in danger of falling apart, per a source. Masahiro Tanaka will be posted this winter Mark Feinsand ?@feinsandnydn 3h The issue was small-market teams wanting posting fees to count vs luxury tax. Without a change to the CBA, that can not happen. Moot point. Mark Feinsand ?@feinsandnydn 3h Despite the hiccup at the owners meetings, a source said the owners were informed that the MLBPA will not reopen the CBA to change rules.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 14, 2013 13:38:52 GMT -5
Was about to post this as well. Next offseason would lay out much better for the Sox and Tanaka. No more Dempster. Lackey on a significant discount. Peavy could easily be traded. Potentially no Ortiz but I suspect we see a short term resign from him instead of a retire. Add a few super young pre-arb arms and Boston could very well be in a better position than the Yankees.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 14, 2013 0:21:09 GMT -5
Brewers 1. Jimmy Nelson, RHP 2. Tyrone Taylor, OF 3. Mitch Haniger, OF 4. Johnny Hellweg, RHP 5. Victor Roache, OF 6. Taylor Jungmann, RHP 7. Orlando Arcia, SS 8. David Goforth, RHP 9. Devin Williams, RHP 10. Hunter Morris, 1B 25 and under, Segura, SS #1, Wily Peralta, RHP #2, Scooter Gennett, 2B #4, Tyler Thornburg, RHP #5 Good god, that is an abysmal system. If Nelson was in the Red Sox system, where would he rank? I'd have him either 11th or 12th, dead even with Workman. Milwaukee needs to be proactive sellers. They essentially have enough pieces to convince themselves they can be a playoff team if they are able to fill a few key spots. Finishing middle of the pack over the next few seasons however is the worst case scenario for Brewer fans. All the more reason why Milwaukee should consider selectively trading a few of its pieces now as I believe they could accelerate a turnaround in a few short years. For instance trading soon to be expiring contracts such as Aramis Ramirez, Kyle Lohse (through 2015) and Yovanni Gallardo. Giving Braun the year to rebuild his value would present an opportunity to potentially add a few impact prospects come this summer or next off season by sending him to a contender in need of a bat. The front office should consider moving a very affordable yet not so young Aoki (age 32). Everyone should be available for the right price but this is a team that could keep Gomez, Segura and Lucroy who are on the under side of 30 and on cost effective deals to stay strong up the middle and build around. Without picking up the options on Ramirez, Weeks, and Gallardo and trading Braun and Lohse the team would be sitting with a payroll around 40 mil next off season. In the mean time if they wish to try to "compete" versus allowing themselves to be "bad" for a few seasons to improve the draft picks they could opt to try and sign the talent that does not require draft pick compensation such as a Garza, Tanaka, Hughes etc. Worst case is the team can flip these players for more prospects later. The team will be quite able to enter the free agent market at any time with a large sum of money to spend and hopefully a mostly stocked farm system. Just my take on how I would proceed as Milwaukees front office.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 13, 2013 22:22:19 GMT -5
From a division perspective the NL Central (Chi Cubs, Pittsburgh, St Louis) is in a close contest with the AL West (Houston, Oakland, Seattle, Texas) for minor league systems and young talent. Should be some amazing battles over the next decade in this division with all the talent in the pipeline.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 13, 2013 22:18:26 GMT -5
Cardinals
1. Oscar Taveras, OF 2. Carlos Martinez, RHP 3. Kolten Wong, 2B 4. Stephen Piscotty, OF 5. Marco Gonzales, LHP 6. Tim Cooney, LHP 7. Alex Reyes, RHP 8. James Ramsey, OF 9. Rob Kaminsky, LHP 10. Carson Kelly 3B/C
25 and Under, Wacha, RHP #1, Shelby Miller, RHP #3, Rosenthal, RHP #4, Adams 1B, #7, Joe Kelly, RHP #12, Siegrist, LHP #15 knocking Kelly off the list
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Post by taftreign on Nov 13, 2013 22:14:49 GMT -5
Pirates
1. Gregory Polanco, OF 2. Jameson Taillon, RHP 3. Tyler Glasnow, RHP 4. Austin Meadows, OF 5. Nick Kingham, RHP 6. Alen Hanson, SS 7. Josh Bell, OF 8. Reese McGuire, C 9. Harold Ramirez, OF 10. Luis Heredia, RHP
25 and Under, Cole, RHP #1, Marte, OF #3
Wow!!
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Post by taftreign on Nov 13, 2013 22:12:39 GMT -5
Brewers
1. Jimmy Nelson, RHP 2. Tyrone Taylor, OF 3. Mitch Haniger, OF 4. Johnny Hellweg, RHP 5. Victor Roache, OF 6. Taylor Jungmann, RHP 7. Orlando Arcia, SS 8. David Goforth, RHP 9. Devin Williams, RHP 10. Hunter Morris, 1B
25 and under, Segura, SS #1, Wily Peralta, RHP #2, Scooter Gennett, 2B #4, Tyler Thornburg, RHP #5
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Post by taftreign on Nov 13, 2013 14:40:25 GMT -5
“@gordonedes: Sox have used time here to gauge clubs" interests in their veteran starting pitchers, including Lackey” As they should. Perhaps it's just a case of due diligence. But whether the clubs intent is to move a starting pitcher this winter or not it at the very least should help provide a general baseline if the club wishes to move one during the summer. This could also be an indication the club has a comfort level in what players such as Workman and Webster or prospects like Ranaudo etc. . may be able to offer the club as a starter entering the spring. Either way I would expect nothing less form my teams or any teams front office.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 12, 2013 23:06:05 GMT -5
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Post by taftreign on Nov 12, 2013 22:13:17 GMT -5
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Post by taftreign on Nov 12, 2013 14:42:11 GMT -5
Napoli may very well be a burden in year 3. We would all like him on a two year deal as would pretty much every GM looking for a 1B option out there. But guess which team ends up with him? The one who offers the 3rd year. This is true of most FA's 30 plus years old. The agents aren't stupid and will always fight for the extra year. Adding an extra risky year to the end isn't in itself a bad idea. The catch is to not have too many risky years on the end of the deal and to not have a roster with multiple players entering those risky years during the same period. Teams like the Red Sox can survive overpaying for an underproducing player for a year just not three at a time. That's why signing both Napoli and Salty could be risky.
Back to Napoli I think it becomes an interesting decision for Cherrington. Napoli was able to provide surprising defense at 1B while adding a much needed HR threat. The market doesn't offer a player who doesn't have one drawback or another. Looks like its going to be a little bit of pick a solution and cross your fingers. My gut says they'll go the 3rd year and Napoli will return. Ideally I'd love to find a trade partner offering a longer term solution but we gots what we gots.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 10, 2013 12:50:37 GMT -5
While I agree trade ideas can get out of hand and in some of these posts they have been beyond realistic I believe we should face the reality that an offseason trade moving one or two of the "major league ready" farm pieces is far more likely now than it has been in the past two seasons. I actually like well thought out trade proposals that work for both teams and show a little creativity that a true GM has to consider.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 10, 2013 12:10:45 GMT -5
One prediction: The prices for free agents this off season will shock many of us. Remember last year how surprised we were early on when Gomes got $10M for 2 yrs - a 4th OF (!?) and Victorino who many industry sources, and of us (including me) believed he was in deep decline signing later 3 x $13M? My guess is that will be nothing and you'll see some even more shocking numbers on mid-level guys such as Napoli, Drew and Beltran. This. Teams are expect to have an additional 25 mil per from increased league revenue. Not 25 mil more under the luxury tax but just in their pockets. This is going to help those teams that have cap space and are "close" to a playoff team. I think KC when I read this. Or Pittsburgh. Additionally more teams are starting to come close into their own personal new TV deals so prices are about escalate over the next 5 seasons. Won't be a shocker three years from now when QO's are valued at 18 to 19 mil. QO's on the "questionable" guys like a Salty or maybe even a Drew begin to decline as this moves on.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 10, 2013 12:04:59 GMT -5
Well I agree with this premise on Cecchini as the most likely to transfer his current skill set to the MLB level based on current information (i.e. Owens command, Swiharts still developing bat and def). However when asked the question about who will be the #1 prospect as of mid-June I expect the #1 spot will still have more weight on who performs the best during the beginning stretch of the season than future projection at least with the readers who buy into the "now". And you can still dream on more upside with Owens and Swihart where as IMO many probably see Cecchini as more of a finished product who really only has the HR power department to improve in offensively.
I'd say Cecchini's the safest prospect to have MLB value as a average regular starter so maybe thats a #1. For some it's a combination of current production and upside projection and that's more Owens and Swihart IMO. I went with Owens because I think he performs at the higher level for the first few months and has some adjustment struggles the 2nd half as the league starts to see him another time around at which point I believe Swihart starts to make his move. All along I expect Cecchini will stay consistently in the top 3 because thats who he is and what he does.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 10, 2013 2:59:59 GMT -5
This post started in my head with the idea of Dempster and a few mil for Hochevar trade with KC but I started thinking that KC and Boston could match up fairly well on a larger trade mostly for the idea that the Royals would love to add to their pitching depth, particularly any young affordable arms. This is a mix of ideas so bear with it as I haven't put the exact pieces together in my head. But it lead me to ask a few questions.
First, can Billy Butler play a passable first base on a regular basis at least for a season or two? KC has mentioned his availability. He is quite affordable. Second, KC is in win now mode so would they deal a piece like Jorge Bonafacio OF who is still 2 to 3 years away from contributing. I believe the teams had a few conversations last year when discussing a potential Lester for Myers deal so have some familiarity with each other. But I wonder if there's a deal somewhere in the generalities of Peavy, Ranaudo, and Brentz for Butler, Hochevar and J. Bonafacio. Perhaps not perfectly balanced in value but a starting thought point. Peavy's 2014 AAV salary is 16.5 mil towards the cap. Butler and Hochevar would be somewhere around 13 mil. Would KC add 3.5 mil to the payroll to add a pitcher they would control for 2 seasons plus an arm that could fill in to the back of the rotation as soon as late this season and a power bat that could take some at bats in the DH spot in place of Butler. Sox would save a few bucks, add a short term answer at first at a cheaper rate than anything on the market, a solid bull pen arm who's finally found his home, and a young upside OF with future power which the system lacks at almost all levels. Maybe KC argues for Workman over Ranaudo here. Who knows but the concept seems to work. Under this scenario I would like to see the team be aggressive on the Tanaka front to fill the rotation loss. Essentially using zero payroll to add a bullpen arm and the hole at first. Butler would slide nicely into the lineup as a hitter after Ortiz. The team could then still add either McCann at C and a cheap OFer like Young or Ruiz at C and a higher level OF like resigning Ellsbury or adding Granderson.
This becomes an alternative to Milwaukee desiring to keep Ramirez :
1. Victorino RF 2. Pedroia 2B 3. Ortiz DH 4. Butler 1B 5. Granderson LF 6. Bogaerts SS 7. Middlebrooks 3B 8. Ruiz C 9. Bradley Jr CF
or
1. Victorino RF 2. Pedroia 2B 3. Ortiz DH 4. Butler 1B 5. McCann C 6. Bogaerts SS 7. Middlebrooks 3B 8. Nava / Gomes LF 9. Bradley Jr CF
with
1. Lester 2. Lackey 3. Buchholz 4. Tanaka 5. Doubront
followed by
1. Uehara 2. Tazawa 3. Breslow 4. Miller 5. Hochevar 6. Workman (Trade possibility) 7. Britton 8. Crain (if enough money available)
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Post by taftreign on Nov 10, 2013 2:05:01 GMT -5
How about a different approach. With Ellsbury, Choo and Beltran being most peoples top 3 OFers who could draw interest from several teams why not be quick to go to one of the next best guys. Add Granderson who should come on a shorter 3 year deal and less AAV perhaps with a partial incentive base salary. He can handle LF full time, slide to CF if JBJr struggles, fill into RF if Victorino gets injured. He provides a power source and is a candidate for a bounce back. Even with reduced power I believe he could be a great value and raise his OBP under Boston's hitting philosophy and reduce his K rate back towards his mean. Adds some speed also. 1. (S) Victorino RF 2. (R) Pedroia 2B 3. (L) Ortiz DH 4. (R) Ramirez 1B (Backup 3B) 5. (L) Granderson LF (Backup CF/RF) 6. (R) Bogaerts SS 7. (R) Middlebrooks 3B 8. (R) Ruiz C 9. (L) Bradley Jr CF I had posted this as part of my previous entry. Didn't see any responses. I was wondering how everyone felt about Granderson in general. Do you like the player? The fit? Don't love losing our draft pick but not worried about the MFYs getting one for it because they'll get one anyone when inevitably someone else would sign him. (Side note: I actually think Seattle would benefit going all in and signing both Ellsbury and Granderson to rejuvenate their offense)
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Post by taftreign on Nov 9, 2013 2:35:11 GMT -5
How about a different approach. With Ellsbury, Choo and Beltran being most peoples top 3 OFers who could draw interest from several teams why not be quick to go to one of the next best guys. Add Granderson who should come on a shorter 3 year deal and less AAV perhaps with a partial incentive base salary. He can handle LF full time, slide to CF if JBJr struggles, fill into RF if Victorino gets injured. He provides a power source and is a candidate for a bounce back. Even with reduced power I believe he could be a great value and raise his OBP under Boston's hitting philosophy and reduce his K rate back towards his mean. Adds some speed also. If the team would like to avoid higher $ contracts I'd shoot for signing Granderson, even with the QO, then add Ruiz on a 2 year deal with a slight overpay to keep him away from Philly. Would also allow the team to put a package together for an age 24 to 28 hitter who has multiple years of control. This years market is screaming that the best value is to trade for a long term solution with the bat. Could be an OFer, 1B, 3B, SS if Bogaerts moves to 3B. Really anywhere but 2nd with Pedroia and C with Ruiz and Swihart and Vazquez nearly here. Essentially I'd follow jmei's 2nd scenario but add Granderson in addition to play LF and provide depth and an additional power bat. 1. (R/S) Victorino RF 2. (R) Pedroia 2B 3. (L) Ortiz DH 4. (R) Ramirez 1B (Backup 3B) 5. (L) Granderson LF (Backup CF/RF) 6. (R) Bogaerts SS 7. (R) Middlebrooks 3B 8. (R) Ruiz C 9. (L) Bradley Jr CF I like that lineup and would require sacrificing a few expendable pieces for Ramirez but still allows for the possibility of packaging a AAA arm plus perhaps Betts and another piece to add another younger bat who could be part of the future but not require the team to force anything in the near future. The bench would consist of Carp, Nava, Gomes and Ross (2 Righties, 1 Lefty and a Switch hitter). Would still need another defensive utility IF under this scenario. If the team decides to pursue Tanaka I'd actually like it as well but would likely force the team to trade Peavy and/or Dempster to free up the salary but at a younger age I believe he has greater upside, doesn't require the loss of any prospects or picks, and results in prospects back from the trade. Maybe Peavy and Ranaudo for a bat under the Tanaka scenario. Pretty attractive to a pitching needy team. In addition I would look at adding a bullpen arm such as free agent Jesse Crain or gage the necessary pieces needed to trade for a player like Hochevar from KC. Hochevar will be a free agent after the 2014 season which should lessen the impact of prospects or assets needed to land him and KC should be willing to move him before losing him to free agency.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 9, 2013 2:26:49 GMT -5
www.baseball-reference.com/teams/NYY/2013-payroll-salaries.shtmlWell using Baseball-reference.coms estimates when including arbitration figures the yankees are at 119.9 mil. That allows approximately 70 mil to spend. If they find out about ARods suspension occurring they can save an additional 15 to 25 mil to spend. IMO Arod gets a 100 game suspension (saves about 15 mil more) and the MFYs potentially could add: 2B Cano at 25 mil SP Kuroda at 15 mil C Pierzynski at 6 mil OF Beltran at 14 mil SP Tanaka at 12 mil (expect a contract that escalates each year in value) 3B Uribe at 6 mil RP Mujica at 6 mil Total 84 mil This is just an estimate of current payroll and may be inaccurate but if Arod is suspended you could see some of the potential players they may be able to afford. With many on contracts of two years or less. They also could keep Canos 2014 salary around 20 mil and back load it to try and sign an additional back end starter like Hammel or Feldman. All this speculation to say the Yankees have money to spend even if they want to stay under the luxury tax.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 8, 2013 23:35:37 GMT -5
I would easily go 10 per on Ruiz. Decent catching is hard to find and Ruiz has a solid track record. Doesn't seem to have any significant splits vs LH and RH. Improves the club defensively. Seems he would be a solid clubhouse guy. He really does seem to be a fit in terms of who the club has recently targeted. I think he's the best value on the catching market. McCann is the better player overall but if his price is in the 18 mil + range, which would not surprise me, on anything more than a 4 year deal Ruiz is clearly the best option unless you believe McCann can convert from C to play 1B mixed with some DH over the next few years as Swihart and/or Vazquez become ready in which you can argue McCann's contract would hold value throughout.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 8, 2013 20:24:40 GMT -5
How about a different approach. With Ellsbury, Choo and Beltran being most peoples top 3 OFers who could draw interest from several teams why not be quick to go to one of the next best guys. Add Granderson who should come on a shorter 3 year deal and less AAV perhaps with a partial incentive base salary. He can handle LF full time, slide to CF if JBJr struggles, fill into RF if Victorino gets injured. He provides a power source and is a candidate for a bounce back. Even with reduced power I believe he could be a great value and raise his OBP under Boston's hitting philosophy and reduce his K rate back towards his mean. Adds some speed also.
If the team would like to avoid higher $ contracts I'd shoot for signing Granderson, even with the QO, then add Ruiz on a 2 year deal with a slight overpay to keep him away from Philly. Would also allow the team to put a package together for an age 24 to 28 hitter who has multiple years of control. This years market is screaming that the best value is to trade for a long term solution with the bat. Could be an OFer, 1B, 3B, SS if Bogaerts moves to 3B. Really anywhere but 2nd with Pedroia and C with Ruiz and Swihart and Vazquez nearly here. Essentially I'd follow jmei's 2nd scenario but add Granderson in addition to play LF and provide depth and an additional power bat.
1. (R/S) Victorino RF 2. (R) Pedroia 2B 3. (L) Ortiz DH 4. (R) Ramirez 1B (Backup 3B) 5. (L) Granderson LF (Backup CF/RF) 6. (R) Bogaerts SS 7. (R) Middlebrooks 3B 8. (R) Ruiz C 9. (L) Bradley Jr CF
I like that lineup and would require sacrificing a few expendable pieces for Ramirez but still allows for the possibility of packaging a AAA arm plus perhaps Betts and another piece to add another younger bat who could be part of the future but not require the team to force anything in the near future. The bench would consist of Carp, Nava, Gomes and Ross (2 Righties, 1 Lefty and a Switch hitter). Would still need another defensive utility IF under this scenario. If the team decides to pursue Tanaka I'd actually like it as well but would likely force the team to trade Peavy and/or Dempster to free up the salary but at a younger age I believe he has greater upside, doesn't require the loss of any prospects or picks, and results in prospects back from the trade. Maybe Peavy and Ranaudo for a bat under the Tanaka scenario. Pretty attractive to a pitching needy team.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 8, 2013 20:03:26 GMT -5
Jeff PassanVerified account ?@jeffpassan Mike Napoli's return to Boston is far from a certainty. Source says he wants to shop around after receiving a multi-year offer from Red Sox.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 8, 2013 19:52:49 GMT -5
I still think McCann would be a solid add. Not only does he fit a need at C with Ross but he would be an upgrade in consistency over Napoli behind Ortiz. May also be more incentive for Hudson if they have a decent relationship. Boston has offered Napoli a multi year deal but he wants to test the market. Even with the QO this can have no positive effect other than driving his price up. I see too many teams that would like to add a power bat and the 1B market is very limited. Essentially if the team doesn't add McCann and Napoli decides to head elsewhere who is hitting behind Ortiz in the lineup. Bogaerts? Gomes? Middlebrooks?
Seems to me the team needs another bat. Who would it be then? Perhaps Granderson who can play LF and slide into CF on occasion. Could offer a discount on a shorter deal similar to how the team did last season with Victorino and Napoli. Also seems as if he would be a good locker room guy. Injuries have driven down his production the past two seasons but I think a few adjustments where he's not trying to rip it out of the short deck in Yankee Stadium and in the Boston hitting philosophy could lead to a marked increase in his OBP. May only hit 28 to 32 HRs but it would be worth the tradeoff. Could drop his K% down from 28% into the 22 to 24% range. Better than Napolis 32%. Plus he could add 12 to 16 steals which can very slightly offset a piece of what is lost from Ellsbury. At least an improvement over what Napoli can offer.
Not a great FA market so I guess I'd set my major targets in this order (Assuming Ellsbury won't return due to length and $ but he would still be at the top of my list) :
1. McCann 2. Tanaka 3. Granderson 4. Napoli
No interest in Beltran. Nice bat but declining skills and no defensive value or speed value at all anymore. Seem like the right time to put a package together for a youngish hitter for this lineup. A player who can contribute now. Not much in the prospect pool that is near major league ready with the bat outside of Bogaerts and JBJr. Cecchini is about it with Swihart an Betts still 2 1/2 years away.
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