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Post by taftreign on Nov 7, 2013 22:14:03 GMT -5
I do like the Aramis Ramirez idea. I thought in the past he would make a solid 3rd base option in addition to Middlebrooks but if you can teach him 1st and still use him in a partial platoon with Middlebrooks it would add great depth value. You could play Ramirez at 3rd during inter league games and allow Ortiz to play 1st. It would really create such great flexibility in setting a lineup. Especially if the team did resign Drew. You essentially would have two solid possibilities or more at each position. 3rd would be Bogaerts, Middlebrooks and Ramirez. SS would be Bogaerts and Drew. 2nd would be Pedroia and Middlebrooks. 1B would be Ramirez, Carp, Nava and on a limited basis Ortiz.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 7, 2013 21:48:40 GMT -5
Isn't the Japanese ball a little smaller or at least it was different in some ways still? When control of the ball's movement is key to a pitcher's success I'm cautious. Matsuzaka was all about control also. I'm definitely open to the prospect of a Tanaka signing but I'd prefer a 1 year deal for Kuroda. So you would rather sign Kuroda who is in a serious decline to a 1 yr deal surrendering a draft pick and would have to pay him 15 mil +. I'd much rather sign a pitcher who will be 14 years younger entering the season to a 5 year deal at 12 or so mil per year. Darvish only received 6 and 60 so a 5 and 60 deal that puts him on the market at age 29 would be a desirable age to hit free agency and land another lucrative long term deal.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 7, 2013 21:40:45 GMT -5
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Post by taftreign on Nov 7, 2013 17:25:49 GMT -5
1. Owens - He doesn't need to improve vs last year to achieve this just maintain his level of performance at Portland. Any increased control makes this a no brainer. I disagree with you on this one. Owens is currently ranked high because he's succeeding despite his poor control. If he doesn't show improvement this season he'll just be "that guy with no control", a la Stolmy Pimentel and Drake Britton. Yes a need for control is needed to succeed at a higher level but if he returns to AA for the first half of 2014 and continues to post anything in the neighborhood to "no hit" stuff I think he will move to the one spot despite an inflated walk rate. I mean he was pitching at a tune of a 1.78 ERA with a 13.65 K/9 rate at AA with 30.3 innings of work. Yes his BB/9 of over 4 does not lead to sustainable success long term but his avoidance of hits still led him to a whip of 1.09. Ultimately its still about minimizing base runners however you do it. That is what I mean by maintaining his level of performance. Even with a slight regression which is likely as the league makes adjustments to him he can hold the 1 spot on upside at just 21. Where as if Cechinni just replicates his numbers we will be pleased but have questions about his power and whether he is a 3rd basemen or a RF. He also had a significant reduction in his SB total form the prior year so he isn't adding as much value on the bases. JBJr's higher 2 ranking had much to do with his defensive prowess which Cechinni does not have an added benefit of in addition to JBJr's high OBP. Swihart is much more likely to move ahead of Cechinni because of the defensive premium and evolving bat.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 7, 2013 16:30:35 GMT -5
Yes. I was wondering as well. In this scenario you present jmei Middlebrooks as a bench player seems a waste of value to me and it is more likely he would need to be involved in the deal with Pittsburgh in place of Carp. I know you desperately want to trade Carp but I can't imagine a return of that level. Either that or Carp would need to have a prospect in the package such as a lower level "higher risk" SP.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 7, 2013 1:26:21 GMT -5
I would be comfortable with two major moves this offseason. First offer McCann a 4 year 72 to 75 mil contract to keep the years minimized. Second I would make a major run at Tanaka who requires no loss of a draft pick and whose posting fee doesn't hit the luxury tax and should have a reasonable AAV considering the money the team has. Adding Tanaka also opens up the possibility of trading one of the major league arms for trade as early as this offseason or spring training in a deal to add either an OF power bat or a versatile multi position OFer to cover an potential struggles by JBJr. Resigning Napoli and letting the remaining players walk compensates for the loss of the pick for McCann and ultimately leaves the team with two late first round picks.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 7, 2013 1:15:37 GMT -5
If its not Salty, who performed much better as a LHH vs RHP, then I would suspect the team would prefer a LHH catcher like McCann who hits well vs RHP's. Ross as a RHH catcher performs best against LHP so a catcher who can handle RHPs seems to be a prerequisite. Ruiz although a RHH does have fairly even splits. My gut feel is the team is going to try to get McCann on a 4 yr deal with elevated AAV. Within two years he will be splitting catching duties with Vazquez or Swihart and be playing much more DH if he is signed. Remember when 3 and 39 seemed like an extreme overpay for Victorino to many last offseason. Think 4 and 72 mil for McCann. Doesn't seem to be the popular opinion but he is an upgrade from the existing situation behind the plate and the team has both potential future openings at 1B and DH to offset any physical decline on defense behind the plate if it should occur or if the young prospects force a move. Ruiz isn't a bad alternative but with the interest from Philly and Colorado plus likely others he probably ends up with 8 mil per or so anyway and at 5 years older than McCann a longer deal for McCann doesn't seem illogical. McCann also offers a better option for Big Papi protection then Salty or Napoli who strike out at least twice as often per ab then McCann. David Ross should have ample input on McCann with his experience as a catching tandem in Atlanta. Unless McCann is an awful clubhouse guy who can upset the team culture I still believe he is the best option. I just don't want to see a 6 year deal. I could see a team/player option or buyout offer attached to a 5th year as a palatable max.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 7, 2013 0:04:16 GMT -5
I expand on the topic and list my June 14 Top 5.
1. Owens - He doesn't need to improve vs last year to achieve this just maintain his level of performance at Portland. Any increased control makes this a no brainer. 2. Swihart - He made dramatic improvement from year 1 to year 2 and I believe the bat takes another step forward this season. Premium defensive position. 3. Cecchini - Has the potential to be 2 but doesn't play a premium defensive position like Swihart. For me will need to show a step up in HR power from 7 to hold 2. 4. Betts - Showing both power and speed with above average def aided by increased physical maturity IMO. With only 185 HI A ABs should start in Salem and excel. 5. Barnes - Has the highest upside of the AAA group including Ranaudo and Webster with his dominating FB. Could also just as easily be traded this offseason. If he struggles with his development of the secondaries he could find his way into the pen come August if Boston finds itself in need of an additional bullpen arm. Not the likeliest scenario though with recent and current prospects Workman, Britton and De La Rosa all more likely to be used first as pen arms before converting Barnes.
* My darkhorse candidate for the 5 spot is Teddy Stankiewicz. Will only turn 20 this month and I suspect a year of strength training and physical development will spur a jump in his prospect status. Speculation but an unknown health issue resulted in a reduced signing bonus and perhaps the use of shorter stints for his outings in Lowell although not unusual for first year players late in the season. If so an offseason to regain full health could play a role. Great control should also give him a high floor as it will help avoid big innings and minimize damage by limiting men on base. I feel his level of development at this point should offer an opportunity to at times dominate in Low A Greenville.
* Other personally projected rankings risers come June 14:
Luis Diaz Jami Callahan Henry Ramos Simon Mercedes Myles Smith Nick Longhi
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Post by taftreign on Nov 4, 2013 12:43:50 GMT -5
Personally I believe Barnes will be best suited to the bullpen. I really like Barnes potential and hope he can put it all together but I worry about his secondaries. I would consider him near the top of the young arms whom I would most likely include in a trade package assuming other organizations believe he can be a solid 3,4 starter in their rotation. He should hold solid value. As for expectations this season I can see him follow a Workman path in which he starts in the rotation but as the season moves along convert to the pen to prep as a 7th, 8th inning arm for the stretch run in Boston.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 3, 2013 22:54:41 GMT -5
I believe the idea is the top three bidders will be available for Tanaka to select which team he prefers to sign with. I don't believe the negotiating will take place after the three top bidders are revealed but rather after Tanaka selects the team he wishes to sign with. Therefore he will only be negotiated with one team. Not certain though. Waiting for clarification.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 3, 2013 22:49:55 GMT -5
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Post by taftreign on Nov 3, 2013 22:38:55 GMT -5
Whether the team signs Napoli to a short term deal or uses a Carp/Nava platoon the team will need to consider the future hole at 1B. I do like Belt but don't see how the Giants can trade him now with no current replacement of value on the roster. I've made a list of up an coming minor leaguers who either have played 1B or I believe could move over from 3B to play 1B. Most are within a year or two from being Major League ready. Some would need most of a year at 1B to learn the position defensively. Highest level reached listed. Some have had limited at bats with the big league team but not significant.
Hunter Morris 1B 25 AAA (Milwaukee Brewers) Ryan Wheeler 3B 25 AAA (Colorado Rockies) Matt Skole 3B/1B 24 AA (Washington Nationals) Jesus Aguilar 1B 23 AAA (Cleveland Indians) Matt Davidson 3B 22 AAA (Arizona Diamondbacks) Maikel Franco 3B 21 AAA (Philadelphia Phillies) Jorge Alfaro 1B 20 Hi A (Texas Rangers) Longer development
Not saying any or all of these player would be available but there are a few teams on this list that would like to land some starting pitching which makes Peavy or the AAA ready arms valuable trade commodities. Particularly if the team lands Tanaka to reinforce the rotation depth or signs Drew, then trades WMB for a major league ready arm from Florida (rumor mill).
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Post by taftreign on Nov 1, 2013 21:36:22 GMT -5
Honestly the Philadelphia Phillies to me seem like a possible scenario for the listed teams in terms of baseball related credentials. Firstly the Phillies currently have a TV deal paying 35 mil per year but are expected to sign a new deal within the next month generating approximately 150 mil + per year creating a large source for salary expenditures. Secondly we know Amaro loves to make a big splash. Thirdly the Phillies should be competitive in the NL East next season offering the potential to return to the playoffs. The counter point to this is how the team feels about Ben Revere. He is much cheaper and under control for 4 more seasons. He also offers speed and decent defense in CF. Therefore it would not appear to be the most effective expenditure of money for a team that could use a little more pop. He does however look like an upgrade over Mayberry JR (29), Wells (28) and Bernadina (29) and Ellsbury could be used in RF with D. Brown in LF. Choo might be a better target however. All this to say don't rule out Philadelphia as an alternate to Boston. Ellsbury doesn't really have the arm for a full-time gig in RF, does he? Perhaps not. Not sure if Brown in RF and Ellsbury in LF works as an alt or not. Again Choo may be a better fit for Philly but Amaro isn't alwyays logical in his decision making.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 1, 2013 21:16:04 GMT -5
Phillies Top 10 Prospects:
1. Maikel Franco 3B 2. Jesse Biddle LHP 3. JP Crawford SS 4. Miguel Gonzalez RHP 5. Roman Quinn SS 6. Carlos Tocci OF 7. Ethan Martin RHP 8. Cesar Hernandez 2B/OF 9. Aaron Altherr OF 10. Severino Gonzalez RHP
Nationals Top 10 Prospects:
1. Lucas Giolito RHP 2. AJ Cole RHP 3. Brian Goodwin OF 4. Matt Skole 1B/3B 5. Robbie Ray LHP 6. Sammy Solis LHP 7. Michael Taylor OF 8. Jake Johansen RHP 9. Nate Karns RHP 10. Steven Souza OF
Source: Baseball America Issue No. 1324 Nov 12-26, 2013 (Periodical)
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Post by taftreign on Nov 1, 2013 21:04:35 GMT -5
Honestly the Philadelphia Phillies to me seem like a possible scenario for the listed teams in terms of baseball related credentials.
Firstly the Phillies currently have a TV deal paying 35 mil per year but are expected to sign a new deal within the next month generating approximately 150 mil + per year creating a large source for salary expenditures.
Secondly we know Amaro loves to make a big splash.
Thirdly the Phillies should be competitive in the NL East next season offering the potential to return to the playoffs.
The counter point to this is how the team feels about Ben Revere. He is much cheaper and under control for 4 more seasons. He also offers speed and decent defense in CF. Therefore it would not appear to be the most effective expenditure of money for a team that could use a little more pop.
He does however look like an upgrade over Mayberry JR (29), Wells (28) and Bernadina (29) and Ellsbury could be used in RF with D. Brown in LF. Choo might be a better target however.
All this to say don't rule out Philadelphia as an alternate to Boston.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 1, 2013 20:24:04 GMT -5
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Post by taftreign on Oct 20, 2013 22:51:26 GMT -5
Having the #7 pick was super exciting, but the Sox could potentially have 5 picks before the start of round two, which would be really exciting in it's own right (I think ~3 is more likely, but 5 is a real possibility). I feel like we're keeping Salty and Nap, so 3 sounds right. 3 would be my guess as well. Supplemental for Ellsbury and Drew. However I would not be surprised to see the team sign McCann losing the original 1st rounder and adding a third supplemental for Salty. Makes sense to move JBJr into Ellsbury's spot and Bogaerts full time into SS with Middlebrooks remaining at 3rd. Perhaps adding a platoon partner with Middlebrooks. Napoli makes sense to remain at first unless the team could get Corey Hart without giving up a pick. Also I would expect the team to package an existing starter with one of the young minor league arms for a bat. Boston has plenty of resources to land Belt who the Giants still seem to run lukewarm on. If you like more prospect you may consider Maikel Franco of the Phillies who would likely deal him for a major league ready arm or arms. There are multiple possibilities in which the team could let Napoli walk. Perhaps the team trades for a corner OFer and moves Nava to 1st with Carp in place of Napoli. Still I see 3 with an outside shot at 4 picks.
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Post by taftreign on Oct 18, 2013 0:15:40 GMT -5
Always hard to project players this far out where the Red Sox are picking. A few guys in and about there pick/picks range I could see keeping an eye on are:
1B/OF Roberson HS Braxton Davidson - young developing left handed power bat C Kennesaw St Max Pentecost - history of Red Sox and the Cape League RHP Sanalwood HS Sean Reid-Foley - more young pitching depth for the lower levels OF Elk Grove HS Derek Hill - speedy defensive CF, always like to have this type of player in the system (ie JBJ, Margot) * was disappointed the team passed on Stoney Brooks Travis Janikowski two years back 1B/3B/RHP Cal St Fullerton JD Davis - power corner bat OF/RHP Oregon St Dylan Davis - diddo LHP Tullahoma HS Justus Sheffield - Why not try another Sheffield with a much better chance to sign
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Post by taftreign on Oct 17, 2013 23:58:16 GMT -5
Sounds like a Cub type of player. Of course at some point they are going to need some arms for this team.
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Post by taftreign on Oct 17, 2013 23:52:03 GMT -5
Agreed. 6 years is very concerning. 2 or 3 more years of Napoli looks like a much better alternative. At least he has shown the aptitude to pick up a decent first base defense and presently showing the ability to raise his game in the playoffs. Additionally are we sure we need a DH after next season? Ortiz is still bringing it at the plate and maybe he takes a one year qualifying offer in 2015 which would be 15 to 16 mil or agree on a more reasonable 10/11 mil deal. One would assume he desires to be a HOFer and as a DH you generally have to have overly compelling numbers. The other alternative to Napoli would be to buy "low" by outbidding the Brewers on Corey Hart. Guy can play when healthy. Won't likely require a draft pick. Could see him batting 5 or 6.
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Post by taftreign on Oct 13, 2013 23:04:45 GMT -5
That Big Papi homerun was one of the best plays I've seen in a long time. You can't write drama better. Two out grandslam down 4. The OF misses the catch by mere inches giving all he has only to tumble over the wall full force. The ball is caught by the bull pen catcher who doesn't even move, just raises his glove and catches it. That is ESPN top play #1. Awesome. Big "Clutch" Papi.
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Post by taftreign on Sept 29, 2013 21:19:09 GMT -5
The Cubs have an opportunity to add yet another high quality talent to their already talented prospect pool. Watch out in a few years. Astros appear to be in line to add a high end starter in Rondon to this years Appel for a potential dynamite 1/2 combo. Unless the Red Sox sign a qualifying offered free agent it appears they will have two or three picks bunched closely together
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Post by taftreign on Sept 29, 2013 21:13:43 GMT -5
Per www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/09/2014-mlb-draft-order.html•The draft order is determined in reverse order of record. If two or more teams have the same record, the tie-breaker is 2012 record, with the team with the worse 2012 record getting the higher pick. That's why, for example, the Cubs (61-101 in 2012) pick ahead of the Twins (66-96 in 2012), even though the two teams had the same record this season.
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Post by taftreign on Sept 10, 2013 22:16:42 GMT -5
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Post by taftreign on Sept 7, 2013 14:03:52 GMT -5
We'll have to see how bad the foot injury is here. If it is indeed similar to Pedroia's 2010 injury and he misses the remainder of the season it means two things. One, the team is worse off for the playoff run and in the playoffs losing a solid defender, speed threat on the bases and an above average leadoff hitter. Two, the team can still offer a QO and a team would still be willing to give him a multi year deal but the injury could by itself be enough to lower the contract value making it much more likely the team resigns him.
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