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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Dec 17, 2023 15:54:05 GMT -5
When it comes to opt outs. I would offer YY plenty of them. If the differentiating factor is an opt out after 5 years then fine. 4 years of YY and then him opting out is better than 0 years if he goes elsewhere. Along with opt-outs, I'd also frontload his contract. His lowest-earning years would come in years 6 to 10 (assuming a 10-year deal), but his AAV wouldn't change, if I understand correctly. Giving him more money in the early years would just impact JWH's personal fortune.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Dec 16, 2023 16:32:19 GMT -5
Marino Pepén @marino_Pepen · 18m Los #RedSox le han hecho una oferta a Yoshinobu Yamamoto de poco más de $300 MM, con cláusulas e incentivos convenientes para las dos partes. La suerte está echada… The Red Sox have offered Yamamato a bit more than $300M plus incentive clauses per Pepén. That's a solid offer. The problem is that unless it was accompanied by "See what else is out there and come back to us with your best offer," I don't see him ending up here. The LAD and/or NYM will probably go even higher.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Dec 15, 2023 18:26:13 GMT -5
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Dec 15, 2023 11:56:41 GMT -5
The Glasnow trade was encouraging. It might be just like the LAD to add YY to Glasnow and Shohei for a trifecta of major off-season acquisitions. But I have to think the TG acquisition makes them less likely to bid the sun, the moon and the stars for YY, especially since they're signing TG to an AAV-impacting deal.
I think Cohen is our greatest competition, followed by the MFYs.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Dec 9, 2023 11:34:49 GMT -5
That's a great list and kudos to lronhoyabembe for compiling it. I wondered why the GOAT was missing but quickly realized that deal came prior to the '98 season after DD acquired the GOAT from Montreal, so too early for this list. I think you can break the list down like this: The Gold Club. We'd do it again.Ramirez (based just on on-field performance) Damon Foulke Varitek Ortiz Lester Pedroia JDM X Flags Fly ForeverThese guys provided value for only a portion of their contracts, but contributed mightily to rings. Dice-K Drew (His slam in game 6 of the '07 ALCS was worth the $70M IMO. As you can tell, I'm a big believer in FFE.) Lackey Price Porcello Buccholz (Cy Young bound in '13 before he got hurt and he gave us some valuable, gutsy innings in the ALCS and WS.) Disasters. Call FEMA.Lugo (The money and years weren't huge, but he produced -.3 B-Ref WAR during the four years.) Crawford (I confess that I loved the signing at the time.) H. Ramirez Sandoval Castillo Sale Still pendingStory Yoshida Devers Yoshi and Story are likely to produce some value during the time left on their contracts, but I wish we weren't carrying either one. I'm not crazy about the Devers deal but not losing sleep over it either. I love Raffy and ~4-WAR players aren't nothing. OthersRenteria and A-Gon didn't provide much to the Red Sox but the organization moved on quickly from each of them in trades that worked out nicely. They got Andy Marte for Rent and flipped Marte for Coco Crisp. Handing A-Gon to the LAD made it possible to get rid of Crawford and Beckett. Moving all that salary set up BC's incredible 2012-'13 off-season and the 2013 championship. Beckett (I think he's missing from the list) also falls into the Others category. Whitlock's contract doesn't fit nicely into any category above but it's so team friendly that it's impossible not to like it. Eo's deal was YMMV. Nitpicky here but I'd move JD Drew up to the top tier. That's a fair observation. A number of these guys could arguably be placed in different categories. I considered Foulke for the FFE group. But then I looked him up and saw that he was a somewhat-useful, not terrible reliever in '06, which I had forgotten. Also, his '04 PS performance makes it impossible for me to imagine a Gold Club without him. I mean it was 0 f'n 4! That counts for a ton.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Dec 9, 2023 10:59:16 GMT -5
That's a great list and kudos to lronhoyabembe for compiling it. I wondered why the GOAT was missing but quickly realized that deal came prior to the '98 season after DD acquired the GOAT from Montreal, so too early for this list.
I think you can break the list down like this:
The Gold Club. We'd do it again. Ramirez (based just on on-field performance) Damon Foulke Varitek Ortiz Lester Pedroia JDM X
Flags Fly Forever These guys provided value for only a portion of their contracts, but contributed mightily to rings.
Dice-K Drew (His slam in game 6 of the '07 ALCS was worth the $70M IMO. As you can tell, I'm a big believer in FFE.) Lackey Price Porcello Buccholz (Cy Young bound in '13 before he got hurt and he gave us some valuable, gutsy innings in the ALCS and WS.)
Disasters. Call FEMA. Lugo (The money and years weren't huge, but he produced -.3 B-Ref WAR during the four years.) Crawford (I confess that I loved the signing at the time.) H. Ramirez Sandoval Castillo Sale
Still pending Story Yoshida Devers
Yoshi and Story are likely to produce some value during the time left on their contracts, but I wish we weren't carrying either one. I'm not crazy about the Devers deal but not losing sleep over it either. I love Raffy and ~4-WAR players aren't nothing.
Others Renteria and A-Gon didn't provide much to the Red Sox but the organization moved on quickly from each of them in trades that worked out nicely. They got Andy Marte for Rent and flipped Marte for Coco Crisp. Handing A-Gon to the LAD made it possible to get rid of Crawford and Beckett. Moving all that salary set up BC's incredible 2012-'13 off-season and the 2013 championship.
Beckett (I think he's missing from the list) also falls into the Others category.
Whitlock's contract doesn't fit nicely into any category above but it's so team friendly that it's impossible not to like it. Eo's deal was YMMV.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Dec 9, 2023 10:07:47 GMT -5
If nothing else, O'Neill makes us a heavy favorite if there's a Red Sox-MFY brawl in '24!
It's exactly the kind of deal I hoped to see this winter in advance of what I consider a non-GFIN year. O'Neill provides a badly needed RH OF bat and is a decent candidate for a bounceback.
Most importantly, it's a one-year commitment and money coming off the books going into '25 along with Sale, Martin, Jansen and the $6.7 payout to Justin Turner.
That's when the farm should start producing impact and when I'd like to see the Red Sox spend on stars. For '24, keep big contracts limited to Yama, acquire other pieces on short deals - one-year if possible like CB1 did last winter - and extend Casas.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Dec 1, 2023 9:06:58 GMT -5
About $70M in AAV or close to it. It means they'd have about $100M tied up in three players, including Raffy. They'll all be contributors going forward but they all have question marks: SO's future as a SP after TJ, Yama's transition to The Show and Raffy coming off a bit of a down (but still good) year. It's not going to happen. $70M is probably at the very high end of what they might have available. Red Sox payroll on twitter has them at 193.5M as of right now with arb estimates and what not. The LT is $237M for 2024, I do think they go over it but 70M would put their LT payroll at 263.5M. It's possible they go that high but I'd probably guess lower on the AAV closer to 55-60M but we'll see, it'll be interesting to see how much JH and Co. open up their check books this offseason. We also have to consider that spending that kind of money in one off-season would make it harder to get under the various LTTs in future years, not just in '24, though the LTTs will go up in the next CBA, possibly by a lot when you look at the money MLB is printing. I like your post above that summarizes the teams that might not be spending huge this off-season. It gives me more hope that we can land Yama. But I don't expect to get SO, regardless of what happens with Yama. Others may disagree with me, but I'd rather have Yama at the price that he'll command than SO at the $400M-$500 that he'll get. SO will get about twice as much as Yama.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Dec 1, 2023 8:34:19 GMT -5
This post made me laugh and deserves a standing O. It's sad to see late-career Gammons though. Reminds me of Willie Mays in the 1973 WS.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Dec 1, 2023 8:30:59 GMT -5
I mean “something big” bs we keep hearing. Nothing would be bigger (or riskier) than an ohtani / Yamamoto combo move They would get their attendance and viewers up real quick How much excess $$$ is this for the FO. ALOT. Enough for It to be feasable. Maybe. About $70M in AAV or close to it. It means they'd have about $100M tied up in three players, including Raffy. They'll all be contributors going forward but they all have question marks: SO's future as a SP after TJ, Yama's transition to The Show and Raffy coming off a bit of a down (but still good) year. It's not going to happen.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Nov 24, 2023 13:32:34 GMT -5
I tend to be stingy with my mythical vote. I'd go with Beltre, Helton and Mauer.
Utley, Andruw and Red Sox Great Billy Wagner are tough omissions for me.
And let's not forget the Eras Committee election with the results to announced on Dec. 3: Cito Gaston; Davey Johnson; Jim Leyland; Ed Montague; Hank Peters; Lou Piniella; Joe West; Bill White.
The Eras Committee is unpredictable. That said, I expect Leyland to get elected. Cito and his two straight WS wins are underrated, so I'd like to see him get in. I also wouldn't be surprised if one of the umpires got in. I'd bet on Montague.
I don't want to see Piniella get elected for obvious reasons.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Nov 22, 2023 13:02:13 GMT -5
On 9/19 I had him at -15 runs per 150 G (Statcast for plays made, average of DRS and UZR for arm, plus DRS "good plays made").
Cora said he was just -1 in September, which is -6 for the season, and that is playable, especially when half your games are in Fenway.
I just ran the final numbers and he was -13.
I'm pretty sure he went from 0 to 1 "Good Plays Made," and that has to be a rounding illusions (e.g actually 0.45 to 0.55).
That leaves him roughly league average over his last 9 games.
It's a small sample size, but it's still promising. And it has huge implications on re-signing Justin Turner. Look for a thread on that.
I'm doing my best Allen Iverson voice as I say this: "Nine games? Nine games? I mean it's nine games. You're talking about nine games? It's nine games."But the broader point is that Yoshi's bad defense meant the Red Sox putting five bad defensive players on the field some nights. You had him, the two CIs, Duran and KKH. Ok, KKH got shipped out and was replaced by an excellent defender. Good. But that still leaves too much bad D. Yoshi needs to get most of the reps at DH with Raffy and Casas also betting PAs there. The problem with the Yoshi signing is that it added to the glut of bad defenders who hit LHH. You can add Valdez, who would be the best choice at 2B if not for his defense. It all makes for a clunky roster that Breslow has to clean up.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Nov 22, 2023 12:13:46 GMT -5
A shame that the real cancers are people that don't understand the concepts of innocent until proven guilty. consenting adults or extortion attempt. Like everyone else, I have no idea what effect he has on a clubhouse. Due diligence would be for Breslow to talk to people that have actually interacted with him. Maybe Turner or Verdugo. I am not however someone who is likely to be swayed by people that don't know any more than I know. The people who say this are the ones who don't understand innocent until proven guilty. The rest of us understand it just fine. Innocent until proven guilty is a sacred legal standard. It has nothing to do with people getting fired from their job, turned down for a new job or liability in a civil action. OJ Simpson was not proven guilty in his first criminal trial (the deaths of his wife and the man returning her glasses) but still had to pay civil penalties. Bonds, Clemens, Sosa, McGuire and others with HOF numbers were never proven guilty in court. Not one of them has filed suit to challenge his HOF exclusion on the basis of innocent until proven guilty.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Nov 22, 2023 12:04:24 GMT -5
“My experience with Bauer is not anything remotely close to what everyone else’s experience is. I love him. I think he’s an awesome guy. The personal things? I have no control. I have no say. Obviously, nothing ever came from it.
“He’s an awesome pitcher. He’s a great guy, somebody who wants to take the mound every fifth day. But, at the end of the day, I don’t make the decision. That’s a decision that’s not as simple as baseball.” Mookie Betts www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/story/2023-10-30/mookie-betts-world-series-dodgers-trevor-bauerDo you really want to face him as a Yankee ? Well, they do need someone to replace Domingo German. Hard no from me. The circus alone is reason enough not to sign him. I believe in second chances and I hope he gets one, just not with the team that has a "B" on its cap. It's also not insignificant that by the time the '24 season starts, it'll be three years since he last pitched.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Nov 22, 2023 10:04:23 GMT -5
Sorry, I'm done with rehabbing and crossing fingers. I much prefer a high-floor, low-ceiling innings eater like Gibson in that range. Not a ton of guys fit that description with Gibson and Lynn off the board. Maybe the new pitching braintrust can fix Giolito? high-floor low ceiling innings eater like Gibson or .. Pivetta? Crawford? Bello (okay maybe his ceiling is a little higher)? You start with those three guys, add one upper tier FA, then you have one rotation spot left for Sale, Houck, Whitlock, and Acquisition #2. Personally I'd rather shoot for a higher ceiling guy with that spot. Not sure Paxton would be my #1 pick for that role but he'd be fine. I don't mind Giolito as the choice either depending on what his contract ends up looking like. I'll be surprised if Paxton doesn't give some team a 12-to-15 start run of decent pitching before breaking down in 2024. I'd be fine with him on a one-year deal as a complement to other SP signings this winter.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Nov 14, 2023 23:30:18 GMT -5
Would love a Casas extension, but there is a downside that it would cut into their ability to spend on other additions now. You're adding at least $10M to the payroll to get it done right? I definitely agree with this and will take the opportunity to make a public service announcement: big-market teams like the Red Sox should stop being their own worst enemy with stupid contracts that hinder them when they want to extend pre-arb players in this LTT world. The Sale contract was nuts from the beginning and could have affected D-Dom's ability to extend some of the young guns who got us the 2016-to-2018 run. (I doubt that it would have helped with Mookie Betts, as he struck me as someone who wanted to get to FA and max out. Nothing wrong with that. Players won that right through negotiations and court fights.) I hoped that Chaim Bloom would get us off that treadmill. But his Story and Yoshida contracts will rob the organization of headroom in trying to work out extensions with Casas, Bello and other guys they might want to keep long term, such as Houck, Duran and some of the crop arriving in the next couple of years.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Nov 14, 2023 23:13:15 GMT -5
A Casas extension is kind of tough to me, I love the bat I believe in him being a middle of the lineup thumper for years to come. Can he stick at 1st base though? Not saying he needs to be a gold glover at the position but his defensive #s are so poor that I am having a hard time thinking now is the time to give him an extension. I can easily see his defensive metrics getting in the way of an extension. Breslow and his team will take those numbers into account when they decide on TC's worth, just as they should. But TC and his reps will try to downplay the numbers' significance - just as they should. His defense was a major drag on his WAR and will continue to be just that unless he makes a dramatic improvement. He put up a nice 129 wRC+/OPS+ but B-Ref has him as only a 2.2-win player with his defense at -1. FG has him at only 1.7 WAR. Casas, Raffy, Duran and Masa have something in common when it comes to their overall value. But I've been a fan of his bat all along because of the approach and I hope they work something out with him.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Nov 10, 2023 11:07:05 GMT -5
You could do this every winter. Any individual target is generally unlikely but the odds they sign someone reasonable are pretty good. The other thing we can do every winter - and in fact we do it every winter - is read things into press reports that say the Red Sox have spoken with the agent for (insert FA's name here). Breslow, or in some cases his designee, will talk with the agent for every remotely plausible FA. As fans we can be like the 8th grader who gets excited because the prettiest girl in the school nodded and said hi while passing in the hallway.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Nov 5, 2023 22:05:15 GMT -5
Offer him 8 years/$208M for an AAV of $26M but frontload it, so that the value to him is greater than the actual payout. In addition, give him an optout after year five.
As badly as I want him, anything more than 8 years sounds nuts to me and I'd move on to Nola. Giving him 10 years has the potential to turn this contract into the Sale debacle x 2.
I'd love to have him. I could be almost as happy with Nola on a five-year deal and Gray on a three-year deal. I see Eovaldi as a good comp for Gray and Eo got only two years from Texas.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Oct 31, 2023 19:08:46 GMT -5
New piece from The Athletic. Let me preface this with, it's Jim Bowden, so take it with a grain of salt... Bowden provided his proposed contracts that each of those free agents would sign for this offseason: -Ohtani: 10 years for $477 million (potential incentives to $500 million) -Yamamoto: Seven years for $211 million -Nola: Five years for $125 million -Snell: Five years for $122 million -Giolito: Two years for $24 million (opt-out after 2024) -Turner: One year for $12 million theathletic.com/5008102/2023/10/31/mlb-free-agents-2023-contract-team-predictions/At those numbers, I'd love to see the Red Sox all over Nola and willing to add an eighth year to Yama to manage the AAV. I've been anti-Snell but I wouldn't hate him at 5 years/$122M. But we have to be realistic. We should consider ourselves lucky if we get just one of the top SP on the market. I can't imagine that one of the 30 teams not named Dodgers or Mets is going to land two of them. We just don't have a place for Turner. It would mean having Yoshi, Duran, Devers and Casas in the field again most days. That guarantees a bad defense, especially if Little Raffy is at Worcester working on his plate apporach, as he should be, and Dugo is traded.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Oct 28, 2023 20:41:37 GMT -5
What did the wannabe Shank say?
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Oct 27, 2023 11:29:53 GMT -5
I wonder who this was. Friedman, Billy Beane, Mozeliak are a few that come to mind. Idk how many current front office executives can be considered 'prominent'. I actually wondered whether it was Theo Epstein. As we know, reporters are coy, and sometimes a little creative, in concealing the identity of people. Theo is not affiliated with any team but he is an executive with MLB. It's not implausible that a writer might describe him as "a prominent, current executive" to camouflage him. I mean McAdam named the other four, so why not this one?
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Oct 27, 2023 9:30:34 GMT -5
Agree. I also like the Breslow outcome. But the first passage that you quoted certainly makes it clear that their top tier choices turned them down and they had to lower their sights and focus on "more obtainable choices." They should be doing some soul searching to determine why what used to be a coveted job is now one that A-list choices turn down.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Oct 22, 2023 12:01:58 GMT -5
On what planet is he better than Francona was? The planet "Make Believe", lol. I like Cora as a manager but Francona was the best. I do think you can make a good argument for Cora being among the best managers the Sox ever had, though. Dick Williams was an excellent manager. I liked Walpole Joe Morgan. It might be blasphemous but I did like John Farrell. I thought Ralph Houk was a damn good manager, too. Don Zimmer and Joe McCarthy had the highest win percentages I believe but their managing directly cost the team two post season appearances each. Joe Cronin was the manager the longest but not known for being particularly good, but I certainly couldnt judge that. I'm lukewarm on Jimy Williams and probably Darrell Johnson and Eddie Kasko, although others would probably have much better informed opinions on the latter two. Everybody else was meh or awful with Pinky Higgins being the lowest of the low. Francona's is the best and Zimmer and Pinky are the worst. I'd put Dick Williams second best but with a big asterisk. His style couldn't sustain long-term success. Fining Yaz for not running hard on a night when Yaz was injured and should not have been in the lineup wasn't a great move for Williams' job security! But no doubt, he was the perfect guy to bring in during the '66'-'67 off-season. Farrell and Ben Cherington don't get enough appreciation. 2013 was magical. McCarthy's boozing and his choice of SP in the 1948 playoff game make him third worst. Darrell Johnson was treated unfairly, I think. He won in '75 and got canned for a few disappointing months at the start of '76, a year when BB in general and the Red Sox in particular was trying to adjust to the whole new world of free agency. The Lynn-Fisk-Burleson situation ate that team alive. If they had kept Johnson, they would have been in the PS in both '77 and '78. I thought Kevin Kennedy was good and that he also got a screwing. I'm Ok with Kasko and Jimy with one "m."
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Oct 14, 2023 17:02:39 GMT -5
Abreu, no question, deserves that. He went from a JAG in the minors to a guy who might make it as a 3rd or 4th outfielder in the majors as long as he continues building on his success from this year. I don't know if this part is necessarily true, when the trade happened last year I remember a couple of reports saying that while Valdez looked like an alright piece that Abreu would prove to be the better piece acquired in the deal. I do think at the time he was seen as possibly a 4th OFer so I'd agree that he appeared to have raised his ceiling last year from potential 4 OFer to a potential strong side of a platoon which as a LHH would pretty much be a regular starter. I guess we should all look forward to Abreu's Zips projection being updated. FG still lists his 2023 projection and has it as .221/.314/.358 with a .301 wOBA and .4 WAR. They had him improving on that a tiny bit in '24 and a tiny bit more in '25, but still at less than 1 WAR in '25. His time in the ML changed my thinking about Dugo from "Eh, I guess they should explore a trade this off-season, given what it would cost to sign him longterm" to "Trade Dugo, make room for Abreu and use the savings for SP." It was hard not to be encouraged by Abreu's performance. OTOH, look up Phil Plantier's 1991 season vs. his career. I'll save you the trouble. He mashed a 175 wRC+ in 174 PAs with 2.3 FG WAR as a 22 year old. He lasted until 1997 and compiled a big 3.1 WAR for his career. So, you never know.
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