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Post by mredsox89 on Dec 6, 2013 21:54:23 GMT -5
So another $15M per year in an already old Yankee OF? That makes perfect sense
They'll add nothing to an already mediocre farm system. They get older and the result is even less youth in the future. Nice
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Post by mredsox89 on Dec 6, 2013 21:18:18 GMT -5
Fantastic. So it will end up being just a bit more than his original 3 year deal last year, which would still be considered "worth it" once he showed his defense at 1B
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Post by mredsox89 on Dec 6, 2013 13:01:44 GMT -5
So basically the only $ the MFY have under 189 is whatever A-rod is suspended for. One would think that makes it very difficult for them to make any moves save for $7-$15M or so (a 50-100 game A-rod suspension). But again they still may go past it, and didn't sign Cano at 10 years just because of how much the A-rod 10 year deal has and will screw them
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Post by mredsox89 on Dec 5, 2013 23:38:20 GMT -5
To me, logical progression is this: Japanese teams have no incentive to post players earlier than needed, unless they need the money for some particular reason (as mentioned above, they're probably getting $20M whether the player is 26 or whether he's 29, so why not wait?). But if that happens, players freak out and demand that the 9 years of team control gets decreased. Only way that progression doesn't happen is if the owners see it coming and still post the players, although I could see them maybe waiting a year or two longer than they would have otherwise. I would say injury risk could be an incentive to post the guy earlier rather than later, but with the max posting fee being so low, I wonder how much a major injury would even have. Would an elite player who would get a $20M posting bid today get the same thing if he missed a year with TJ or something? I think maybe, and his contract would just be lower
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Post by mredsox89 on Dec 5, 2013 22:42:52 GMT -5
There was a time where an outfield of Soriano, Wells and Suzuki would have been amazing. They are still getting paid that way. But not by the Yankees. The Yankees are paying Wells 2.4M in 2014, Soriano 5M. Ichiro is there most expensive of the trio at $6.5M. Though Wells/Soriano will take in 15-25M as a 4th OF. Nice job LAA and CHI
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Post by mredsox89 on Dec 5, 2013 21:45:08 GMT -5
Since the Red Sox did not exceed the luxury tax in 2013 they would be assessed a 17.5% tax on any overages. With the cap set at 189 million, even if they went up to 200 (hypothetical) thats only about a 2 million dollar tax. People are acting like it's some death sentence to go above the threshold for a year its not. ? By 2016, the fifteen teams in the largest markets in baseball will be disqualified from receiving revenue sharing. This feature is being phased in over the coming years. The disqualified clubs will receive a refund for the amount that they would have received in revenue sharing, although teams that have exceeded the Luxury Tax threshold in recent years will not receive a full refund. (MLB.com) This is a big reason to stay below 189, correct? Couldn't find any more detail on this provision so maybe I'm completely wrong
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Post by mredsox89 on Dec 5, 2013 20:07:25 GMT -5
Some positive stuff out of the Lester interview with WEEI. Said he want to only know Boston and knows that he has to be ok taking less $ to stay like he did in his previous deal
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Post by mredsox89 on Dec 5, 2013 19:54:31 GMT -5
So now that Ellsbury is gone, Lester is easily signable next year. What do people think he'll want? He was just on WEEI. Speier tweeted out a few things. Alex Speier ?@alexspeier 6m Lester on possible extension: 'Boston's my home... It's all I want to know.' Alex Speier ?@alexspeier 5m Lester said wasn't hard to leave millions on table in 1st extension, and understands if he wants to stay, has to be OK doing the same So he's at the very least saying the right things now. Obviously a ton can change within a year. I would assume on the open market he at least approaches Greinke contract status. Would the Sox sign him at that, I'd lean towards no. But at some point the marginal value of every dollar on the contract isn't worth very much. If he's willing to take a below market deal, he certainly ends up staying in Boston
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Post by mredsox89 on Dec 5, 2013 18:08:51 GMT -5
I'd laugh more if Kuroda signed in Japan and the Yankees not get the comp pick for him. I will laugh the most of the laughing laughs when Kuroda comes back and has 5 months like his last 2 months of 2013: August: ERA 5.12 31 2/3 IN BAA: .315 September: ERA 5.70 30 IN BAA: .275 This makes me laugh just typing it. This is where their biggest problem lies. Their #1 option (Tanaka) for their rotation will now cost significantly more, at least towards the 189 tax limit and it's not even a given that he gets posted/signs with the MFY. Their #2 option is Kuroda who you outlined could be a much bigger question mark than many people think. Their current rotation relies upon Nova/Pineda as 3/4 starters which is an absolute best case scenario, and even that might be a stretch
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Post by mredsox89 on Dec 5, 2013 2:21:57 GMT -5
Is anyone else getting the feeling that the Sox won't give Bradley Jr. A shot to win the CF job this year ? I see it like this they don't have a traditional type lead off hitter on this roster unless Nava starts every game (high OBP.). Their's no one on the market who fits that profile. It just seems logical to try to start Bradley Jr. out there in the spring. I've seen Bradley Jr. he's a gamer, has a high OBP. , In the minors, and has performed well at every level but the majors. He was thrown in from double A out of necessity and really was set up to lose. Maybe I'm a little biased because I've liked him even from his S.C. Days. I just hate listening to these sports media guys disregard Bradley Jr. as a viable option. Does anyone else have any thoughts on this ? On the contrary IMO. They seem to have said/done everything that leads me to believe he at worst gets a chance at the starting job. The "big media" people just want them to win the offseason by making a big move after seeing the Yankees end up with Ellsbury. Many of these people were clamoring for him to get starts out of ST and then jumped off the ship as soon as they could. Sure, if they get a "star" OF to land on the roster at the Sox price point, then maybe he doesn't get the starting job out of ST. At the very least, they continue to say they'll be fine if he's the opening day CF. He also won't hit leadoff for some time IMP, which certainly reduces the expected/necessary output of his bat if it lags behind his elite defense
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Post by mredsox89 on Dec 5, 2013 2:09:36 GMT -5
Does anyone have a semi-accurate estimate to where the Yankees' current payroll stands. From piecing together the guaranteed contacts from Cot's and Baseball Refernece's estimations of Arbitration awards, I have them pegged somewhere around 166 Million dollars. That figure does include A-Rod's 25 million, so based from my math (which I expect to be incorrect) they have anywhere from 23 million to 48 million dollars to remain under the cap (Dependent on the entire A-Rod parody). Regardless, they still could still be real players in either the Tanaka market. This was posted by amfox1 in the Ellsbury thread. A-rod's salary off the books, Cano and Kuroda back. I still don't buy that A-rod gets a full season, but the Yankees appear to be operating under that assumption, or just don't care about 189. Their problem is that they have one legit starter if Kuroda goes back home, and now Tanaka will likely cost them far more towards the AAV if they want him 2014 Hankees Rotation (42.40 AAV + FA) - Sabathia (24.40 AAV), Kuroda (assume re-signed at 16.00 AAV), Pineda (arb1, assume 1.00 AAV), Nova (arb1, assume 1.00 AAV) + FA Bullpen (7.50 AAV + FA) - Robertson (arb3, assume 4.00 AAV), Phelps (min, 0.50 AAV), Kelley (arb2, assume 1.50 AAV), Warren (min, 0.50 AAV), Betances (min, 0.50 AAV), Claiborne (min, 0.50 AAV) + FA LHP Lineup (130.87 AAV + FA) – Ellsbury (21.87 AAV), Gardner (arb3, assume 4.00 AAV), Cano (assume re-signed at 25.00 AAV), Soriano (17.00 AAV), McCann (17.00 AAV), Teixeira (22.50 AAV), Jeter (17.00 AAV), Suzuki (6.50 AAV) + FA 3B Bench (22.10 AAV) - Cervelli (arb1, assume 1.00 AAV), Ryan (2.50 AAV), Nunez (min, assume 0.60 AAV), Wells (18.0 AAV) This assumes Rodriguez is suspended for the entire 2014 season. Total AAV is 202.87 plus the cost of three free agents (a solid #2/3 starter, a LOOGY and a 3B), plus 17.00 AAV in benefits/40 man roster, less 36.24 AAV the team is owed from other teams. That gives the Yankees approximately $6 million to spend and remain under the luxury tax (even after assuming Cano/Kuroda signings). If Cano is not re-signed (which is my assumption with the Ellsbury signing), they could trade for Brandon Phillips to play 2B and still have some room to fill out their roster. Maybe Vernon Wells will play 3B. Read more: forum.soxprospects.com/thread/1375/jacoby-ellsbury-nearing-153mm-deal?page=8#ixzz2ma8OA3eC
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Post by mredsox89 on Dec 4, 2013 22:37:06 GMT -5
I would love it if they got Kemp at $10M a year, maybe $13 if they don't have to send anything meaningful to LA. Put him in LF and Nava at 1B, or swap them if Kemp seems able to play 1B Have you seen Kemp's contract? He's due $128m through 2019 (AAV of roughly $21m). To make him a $10m a year player, the Dodgers would have to eat $68m-- more than the Red Sox would take on. That's not going to happen, at least not unless the Red Sox put together a pretty hefty prospect package. Most of my point exactly. I don't see him ending up in Boston or just about anywhere else unless the Dodgers eat a massive portion of his contract
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Post by mredsox89 on Dec 4, 2013 21:49:00 GMT -5
I would love it if they got Kemp at $10M a year, maybe $13 if they don't have to send anything meaningful to LA. Put him in LF and Nava at 1B, or swap them if Kemp seems able to play 1B
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Post by mredsox89 on Dec 4, 2013 21:47:52 GMT -5
I'm sure they're mad, but $20M is better than nothing, unless they think the rules will change or an exception will be made Well having another year of the best pitcher in your league for a $3M salary isn't "nothing" so we'll see. Love it if they hold him back. Correct, but compared to 6 months ago, when the general consensus was $50M+ it's meager. On a related note, anyone know what kind of profit teams like Tanaka's turn? Does a $3M salary/investment in him turn a big number?
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Post by mredsox89 on Dec 4, 2013 20:01:19 GMT -5
I'm sure they're mad, but $20M is better than nothing, unless they think the rules will change or an exception will be made
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Post by mredsox89 on Dec 4, 2013 18:11:01 GMT -5
Interesting. So in essence the posted player would be a FA with everyone interested rather than negotiating with only 1 team. If it's the case, it makes sense. Treat them similar to MLB FA's
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Post by mredsox89 on Dec 3, 2013 21:05:30 GMT -5
You lose a pick if you sign a FA that has a QO attached. But it just goes away. Team who had the FA gets a pick after the 1st round Is that a recent change in rules? The team whom lost the FA used to get the signing team's 1st round pick. Yes. The most recent CBA
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Post by mredsox89 on Dec 3, 2013 21:02:16 GMT -5
Last year I remember teams getting the other team's first round pick as long as it wasn't in the top ten picks. Look at the draft last year. I also remember the Mets were fighting this bc they had 11th pick but it was due to someone not signing someone from the year before and MLB ruled they wouldn't have to give that pick up if they signed a comp free agent You lose a pick if you sign a FA that has a QO attached. But it just goes away. Team who had the FA gets a pick after the 1st round
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Post by mredsox89 on Dec 3, 2013 21:01:40 GMT -5
Tim BrownVerified account ?@tbrownyahoo There is, indeed, an option on an eighth year for Ellsbury, as contract is constituted at this moment
8th year option supposedly would bring deal to 8/169
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Post by mredsox89 on Dec 3, 2013 20:51:37 GMT -5
If anyone outside of the Yankees had signed him to this deal most sox fans would be laughing at the contract. Front loading the roster with no depth and a minimal farm system, and barely any current MLB pitching doesn't appear to be the best way to win. If Sabathia is at his best, he's a legit #1. But he looks to be trending downward already. Kuroda is still up in the air, likely going away from the MLB. Maybe they get Tanaka, maybe they don't. That is still far from a legitimate contending rotation
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Post by mredsox89 on Dec 3, 2013 20:44:15 GMT -5
Certainly it won't be much fun to see Ells in pinstripes for the next 3-4 years. But him being paid $20-$25 at ages 35-37 will likely just leave the Yankees where they are now. The heavy majority of their $ tied up in slim number of players, with little to no depth and an inability to recover if they suffer an injury or two. They still have no rotation
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Post by mredsox89 on Dec 3, 2013 17:29:41 GMT -5
Less AAV than AJP, but stuck with him for 3 years. If the Sox didn't have Vazquez (and maybe Butler) I wouldn't see an issue with going 3 years on a catcher. If Salty had signed for 2 years, then I would have been annoyed it wasn't with the Sox
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Post by mredsox89 on Dec 3, 2013 17:17:13 GMT -5
Shockingly low on Salty, and it makes it seem like he would have taken the QO. If no one would have given him $30M without a pick attached no one would have come even close with that pick
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Post by mredsox89 on Dec 3, 2013 16:36:09 GMT -5
Not sure in what world Law expected a 1-2 WAR catcher to only get 1-2 Million on a 1 year deal. Is $8 an overplay, probably. But they weren't getting a catcher for under $5M unless they traded prospects, so at most its a few $M overpay, which is absolutely nothing
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Post by mredsox89 on Dec 3, 2013 13:56:07 GMT -5
Buster Olney ?@buster_ESPN 3m Carlos Beltran is said to have a three-year offer for $48 million in hand. Not sure if it's the Mariners, but Seattle is being aggressive. Insane! Have to imagine it would be an instant agreement if it was anyone other than the Mariners or another mediocre or worse team
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