SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Recent Posts
|
Post by jrffam05 on Mar 18, 2015 11:05:15 GMT -5
More of a special case, but Cuddyer rejected a QO under similar circumstances. I guess he proved very productive in his 200 AB in 2014, and the Mets deal wasn't that much, if at all, better than a qualifying offer. IMO I thought he'd be the first to accept a QO after it was extended.
As of now, the Red Sox see Victorino as a starting outfield starter with Hanley, Betts, Castillo, Craig, Nava, and Bradley on the roster. I think that would suggest they see him as more than an 730 OPS guy with defensive grades that Castillo, Betts, or Bradley could match. Maybe it's bad information on my side but they have seemed pretty reluctant to shop him around, even with the logjam in the outfield.
I wasn't suggesting it as a likely possibility, but I don't think it is so unlikely that it is a negligible factor. Outside of 2014 Victorino has put up at least 3 fWAR seasons his entire career.
|
|
|
Post by jrffam05 on Mar 17, 2015 15:09:35 GMT -5
FWIW, there was some talk of a Cespedes-Wheeler deal; throwing Marrero and another prospect into that deal (someone in A ball with upside) might have made Syndergaard an option. The reality is that top-20-in-baseball pitchers have only about half of the success rate that hitters do (35% vs 60%) for average-or-better performance. Any Cespedes-Wheeler talk was pure speculation made by people without any knowledge. Unless BC said "how about Cespedes for Wheeler, huh, huh" while jabbing his elbow in someones rib I doubt this was ever discussed. I think you are idealizing this. Cecchini who was briefly ranked in the top 100 has good value, but Walker who was ranked in the top 10 the majority of his career is not? Cecchini has still been getting positive reviews, but the ranking when he had a OBP .400 in AA was the pinnacle of his value until he proves otherwise. Also, teams really don't care about where a player would rank in their own farm system when making trades, as it means nothing. I think you are calling out all the upside on the players you want to include and all of the downside of the players you want back, which maybe a great sales pitch but it doesn't change the players value. Cecchini or Marrero do not start over Seager or Miller in 99.99% of possibilities. Walker will be a serious piece in the Mariners team, who should compete for the division (if not be the favorites as some analyst call out) this year. You're asking for them to give up long term upside while making their team worst in the short term. If you were to include Johnson, Chavis and Barnes the Mariners still probably wouldn't spend a minute considering it. They held him out of trade proposals the entire winter, for names much bigger than Cechini and Marrero, and their is a reason for that. No, I doubt they would. Astro's had the choice of Appel, Gray, Bryant, Stewart, Fraizer, and the rest of the class and they went with Appel (I thought they'd take Gray). There wasn't much he could do in a 44 IP A ball sample size that would change their opinion on him that much, unless of course he went all Jon Denney on them. Closest recent trades to what you are talking about are the two Heaney trades this offseason. That included an 2B with solid upside and team control and another veteran SP. Heaney was then flipped 30 seconds later for one year of a top 5 second baseman, which I thought was a bit of an undersell. Next closest trade after that has to be the Miller - Rodriguez trade. Rodriguez was a top 50 prospect who's value fell before the Red Sox acquired him, and he is showing a #2 ceiling since being traded.
|
|
|
Post by jrffam05 on Mar 17, 2015 11:36:48 GMT -5
I wonder if the Sox see Victorino as a possible QO free agent this year, and if that would sway them from/for trading him. He doesn't fit on the 2016 team, but what kind of season would he have to put up to be worth a QO?
|
|
|
Post by jrffam05 on Mar 16, 2015 15:56:28 GMT -5
Kelly leaving the game is obviously not good. Hopefully Amaro asks for Owens + Swihart + Betts + YM, just so we can continually hear about Cole. I hope BC comes out to Cafardo saying that a Kelly injury does not change his view on Hamels value.
|
|
|
Post by jrffam05 on Mar 16, 2015 15:54:24 GMT -5
If Kelly is down for an extended period of time, I'd expect an OF traded to Nationals for SP (including more moving pieces) before I'd expect Swihart included for Hamels.
|
|
|
Post by jrffam05 on Mar 16, 2015 10:14:39 GMT -5
All he has done is hit since being drafted. OPS over 1.000 in any relevant sample size. He may not have the absolute 5 tool package of a Buxton, but he played as well as somebody could play in the highest level of the minors with consistency. He earned the top spot, as arbitrary as it may be.
|
|
|
Post by jrffam05 on Mar 16, 2015 9:53:39 GMT -5
Does Escobar being developed as a reliever mean a Portland starter like Keith Couch gets promoted? Or does one of Workman/Hernandez occupy that spot? Looking like: Owens Rodriguez Johnson Barnes Wright This makes the most sense, and it's a pretty nasty AAA rotation. Mid season there is a chance that all 5 of these guys would be deserving of a call up for a spot start or replacing a 15 day DL pitcher.
|
|
|
Post by jrffam05 on Mar 16, 2015 9:29:25 GMT -5
Finally Bryant takes his rightful spot at #1 on a quality ranking.
|
|
|
Post by jrffam05 on Mar 16, 2015 9:15:29 GMT -5
Another young pitcher down. That's pretty depressing.
|
|
|
Post by jrffam05 on Mar 13, 2015 16:05:01 GMT -5
What a shame, and no surprise. Every team attempts to see what makes their draftees "tick", but it is, at most, an opinion or a guess. Most of us on this board learned the following item eventually...... a person almost never changes their stripes. Once a person makes a questionable decision, you need to watch closely if it a pattern. Jon Denny is probably the next in line. I always thought I could motivate or change the productivity of one of my employees, but I found out pretty quickly....you either have it or you don't and few can become someone else. I can't disagree with the bolded statement more. I guess it's very subjective. The only indicator we had with Kukuk was his DUI, and I'm sure you could find some examples of people you know with a DUI who has moved on to be successful. I could think of a recent president who had a DUI (without making this a political debate, can we just agree that becoming a US president should be considered a success) and a recent lefthanded relief pitcher who also had DUI. I'm sure if we were around Kukuk more we would see some signs that would point to him as an undesirable, but we really didn't have that context. I'm not trying to downplay a DUI, but I think it's a serious crime that could result from an innocent lapse of judgement. I would say a majority of DUI's don't start at home with someone saying "I'm going to get blasted and drive around, maybe kill someone". Moving off of DUI's, I know examples of bad students turning their grades around, drug addicts coming clean, criminals going straight and so on. I also know examples of people who grew up very privileged, or had been very straight edged, pissing their lives away. Like I said it's subjective. This isn't baseball or Red Sox related so I won't continue to post about it. Anyways.... I think Kukuk is a dirtbag and I'm happy he isn't part of this organization anymore.
|
|
|
Post by jrffam05 on Mar 13, 2015 11:48:15 GMT -5
Kinda surprised by this. The Padres thought he was advanced enough to attend big league camp this year with a chance to win a spot on their team. If Moncada was to win a spot on the Red Sox he would have to jump Pedroia and Betts (and Holt and Weeks), on the Padres he'd have to beat out Jedd Gyorko. One of these scenarios is more plausible than the other.
|
|
|
Post by jrffam05 on Mar 13, 2015 10:04:56 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by jrffam05 on Mar 12, 2015 15:04:22 GMT -5
Chris Martin in to pitch. At least Morosi was pretty diplomatic when he said no way betts or Swihart were going anyplace. And less diplomatic: Jon Morosi ?@jonmorosi If I am the Red Sox, I wouldn't trade Mookie Betts for Cole Hamels straight up. That's how much I believe in him.
If only there was some baseball forum that was in agreement on this months ago.
|
|
|
Post by jrffam05 on Mar 11, 2015 16:22:32 GMT -5
This will not be a popular opinion, but I'm kind of rooting for ARod. Yeah, he almost certainly is a cheater and a generally unpleasant human being, but he more than did his time, and the way the Yankees organization is treating him is a little disgraceful. If they don't want him around, just release him, but all these attempts to try to get him to, what, retire? It just seems super juvenile. Got to agree with this. I was not an A-rod fan, and I am still not, but boy my opinion on him is WAAAY higher than the way the media makes him out to be. Funny how bad he was scapegoated for the whole Bosche thing. Bosche calls out the entire MLB as being on steroids, that he was the best at it, and he could beat the tests. He had multiple named clients in his book, but the arbitration panel essentially came to the conclusion that A-Rod did it 3X worse than everyone else. Also with the media coverage of it, it's crazy how they scapegoat one person with the abuses of a large population. The Geico commercial got it right. Also, Pettitte is getting his jersey retired, opposite ends of the spectrum there by the Yankees. I will note that he used at a time when it was not regulated, and since I don't think Rocket and Bonds should be held out of the HOF because of PEDs, I'll hold Pettitte to a somewhat different standard.
|
|
|
Post by jrffam05 on Mar 10, 2015 15:05:07 GMT -5
I think we all owe Marcus Stroman an apology for jinxing him... ugh. I take back what I said about the Blue Jays. I really hate seeing these injuries is young high potential arms, even when they are direct competitors. I mean I don't wish injuries on any player, but at least if Kershaw gets hurt he would have a couple hundred million other reasons to be happy. With the rising injuries to pitchers, I think the value is adding depth instead of "top end" talent. Really we have at least 5 pitchers in AAA that would be deserving of a spot start in the Majors, and 2-3 who project to be "ready" towards the start of the year. We also have Ross and Workman who maybe relievers on the MLB team that could take a turn in the rotation without a roster move. Although we lack the top end options, I still love the depth the Red Sox built, for both SP and position players
|
|
|
Post by jrffam05 on Mar 10, 2015 10:57:22 GMT -5
Looks great so far in spring training, and in his short MLB stint last year. Personally I don't consider moving him to the bullpen till it's apparent he is better suited for a bullpen job, similar to what they did with Workman.
Let's not forget about the Webster past spring training scouting report that he is the best pitcher in camp when he came out throwing 99.
|
|
|
Post by jrffam05 on Mar 9, 2015 14:07:35 GMT -5
He really should go nowhere this year. He's a lot more valuable to the Red Sox as injury insurance stuffed in AAA than we'd get in a trade right now. I like JBJ as depth for Castillo and Betts a lot more than Sizemore as depth for JBJ and Victorino. Double that. He is excellent depth for us this season, and he has the opportunity to really increase his value by having a good season in Pawtucket....and permitting us to get more in a trade. He probably will be an add on and not the primary piece, but with solid improvement at AAA, were he could definitely use several hundred more at-bats, he will actually be sought after. I really like the depth Ben has accumulated for us in the ML and in AAA (and yes even in the rotation). Unless we are getting a starting pitcher who would bump someone out of our starting rotation (we wouldn't), we shouldn't trade Bradley. It doesn't hurt us to use one of his options, and he is still a high floor and decent ceiling player. He is a great depth option with upside, and we really don't have any holes to fill by trading him. He may be the reason why we trade Castillo in the future, or more realistically he could be a very solid 4th outfielder next year when we lose Vic. Either way, there is not much to gain by trading him and some value to lose. I also agree, this is a very deep team. Bradley makes the 25 man opening day roster on most other teams as a backup.
|
|
|
Post by jrffam05 on Mar 6, 2015 12:40:45 GMT -5
Saw a license plate that read ' JBJ 298'. I'd take that. Let's hope that's not referring to his slugging pct.
|
|
|
Post by jrffam05 on Mar 4, 2015 13:14:11 GMT -5
I've seen Cano at SS and Middlebrooks at 2B for an inning, so although it's unlikely it wouldn't surprise me to see Han-Ram play a couple innings at SS, but I can't imagine him spending any meaningful time there. I think they would make a Herrera type trade before they consider Hanley moving to SS. He was signed for his high potential bat.
|
|
|
Post by jrffam05 on Mar 2, 2015 17:17:35 GMT -5
Reading this thread and the other posts on various other threads has gotten me to this conclusion.... It's time to start playing baseball and forget all the speculation for a while. Can't wait to (hopefully) enjoy watching this team this year. Speculation: without it, internet baseball forums could not exist.
|
|
|
Post by jrffam05 on Mar 2, 2015 17:07:11 GMT -5
I always pondered this. At what point does a switch hitter with one clear favorable match up turn from a switch hitter to a platoon player? The theory behind switching hitting (I think) is to take away the advantage a same handed pitcher has (or to always have the advantage an opposite handed hitter has). Most switch hitters will prove to be clearly better from one side than the other, but I'm surprised how lopsided some of their splits are. Nava's career line of 126 wrc+ 813 OPS LHed, 60 wrc+ 585 OPS RHed line would not suggest he is gaining or taking away any benefit from standing on the other side of the plate against LH pitching, which is the kindest way I could describe his switch hitting ability. I never really considered Salty, Nava, or Victorino as true switch hitters, because their splits are so obvious that opposing managers could still use the bullpen to create clear unfavorable match ups. In Nava's case I always thought he should just bat LH. What really makes him a good hitter is his good batters eye and plate discipline. I'm not suggesting it would be easy, he's never seen breaking balls moving away from him, but I would bet it would be in general easier for an high OBP guy to convert than a high ISO guy.
|
|
|
Post by jrffam05 on Mar 2, 2015 12:52:56 GMT -5
@mikesilvermanbb: #Phillies exec kept close eye on #RedSox workout today. Watched Swihart, Betts, Cecchini, Marrero many others hit. That is just adorable.
|
|
|
Post by jrffam05 on Feb 25, 2015 13:12:55 GMT -5
Now that he is signed, could someone explain to me why he does not profile defensively as a SS? About everything you read in his scouting report about his tools and physicality would suggest he could handle SS, fast twitch player with a good arm, about the right size, with great speed. I'm not trying to say he should be a SS, because I have not seen him (and you probably have not either!) nor would I be qualified to scout him, just trying to map his profile to his position. I would think the quick burst and good speed would play more to a SS than 2B/3B. If the question is his glovework/footwork, well you still need a really good glove to play 3B, and 2B still has to twist double plays.
|
|
|
Post by jrffam05 on Feb 23, 2015 12:42:19 GMT -5
Moncada's signing bonus total cost would probably surpass what we paid to every minor leaguer in our system. If they sign him they are going to put him at the whatever position or level they think he is best suited for, regardless of that teams roster.
EditZ: Wow, I've been inactive in following baseball since I took my new job, but I missed the part that WE SIGNING MONCADA, and for a lot less than I thought it would take. Awesome.
|
|
|
Post by jrffam05 on Feb 17, 2015 15:00:32 GMT -5
|
|
|