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Post by jrffam05 on Mar 27, 2015 16:14:39 GMT -5
I thought this would be a fun topic. Rank each team on where you think they will finish in their division. It'll be good to document our predictions in the preseason, to give us some context to use throughout the year. April 4th should be the cutoff. Teams are in their 2014 standings order
AL EAST - Baltimore, New York, Toronto, Tampa Bay, Boston 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
AL CENTRAL - Detroit, Kansas City, Cleveland, Chicago, Minnesota 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
AL WEST - Los Angeles, Oakland, Seattle, Houston, Texas 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
NL EAST - Washington, New York, Atlanta, Miami, Philadelphia 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
NL CENTRAL - St. Louis, Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, Cincinnati, Chicago 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
NL WEST - Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego, Colorado, Arizona 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
AL Wildcard 1: AL Wildcard 2:
NL Wildcard 1: NL Wildcard 2:
Best record in MLB: Best record in the other league:
Worst record in MLB: Worst record in the other league:
If there is interest here I'd be happy to track a scoring. Off the top of my head, I think we say a point per correct answer, double if you get the whole division, double for playoff predictions (Division winners + Wildcard selections. Wildcard order doesn't matter)
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Post by jrffam05 on Mar 27, 2015 15:35:03 GMT -5
I'm still pretty high on Bogaerts. He was the best hitter on the team through May before he fell off. He also destroyed the minor leagues with a great plate approach. But I guess now that he is 22 his prime years are probably behind him.
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Post by jrffam05 on Mar 27, 2015 13:25:37 GMT -5
They won't make the decision in March so yeah they'll wait. I'm not sure how my post was read to suggest anything about a decision already being made or should be made. Aiken is an very interesting prospect, and not much will change from his value standpoint between now and then, but of course we don't know if he/other's will be available on draft day. Most of the analysis that will push players up and down draft boards will be done over he next 3 months. I thought this went without saying, or was already covered in the thread. Anyways color me intrigued. I think the recent news would suggest a better chance that he would be available than before he had surgery. Unless we hear about complications, I can't imagine many scenarios where getting Aiken at #7 is a bad pick.
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Post by jrffam05 on Mar 27, 2015 11:21:17 GMT -5
I'd have to think Aiken would be thought of more favorably than Hoffman, who went #9 last year with TJ surgery. Fuzzy comparisons that probably don't mean anything, but Hoffman was ranked behind Rodon before injury, and Rodon went behind Aiken in 2014. Aiken is also younger, which I'm guessing would be more favorable coming off a surgery in comparison.
Maybe it is my biased towards a familiar face or ignorance of the MLB draft, but I'd be ecstatic if we got Aiken, injury or not. What really sells it for me is such a young kid who not only has 3 good pitches, but has a 60 control rating (2014 MLB.com draft list).
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Post by jrffam05 on Mar 25, 2015 16:00:35 GMT -5
5'11 256 per wikipedia. I'm sure he projects to have at least average raw power.
Too bad they changed the rules on contact at the plate. Easy run to pitch run him at 3rd and give him the steal sign. I'm sure if there was a runner on first he would also score.
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Post by jrffam05 on Mar 25, 2015 15:54:38 GMT -5
This is a tough one.
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Post by jrffam05 on Mar 25, 2015 15:35:48 GMT -5
Yea, as of now the best outfield has to be Hanley, Castillo, Betts. Craig and Victorino may have something to say about that, but they have yet to prove otherwise. The difference between Vic and Castillo isn't big though, so I'm ok with a short term solution, like optioning Craig, DLing Vic, optioning Castillo, as long as it is roadmapping to the Hanley, Castillo, Betts outfield somewhere down the road.
Before any statement was made about Vic being the starting RF, I think most of us had this penciled in as the starting outfield.
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Post by jrffam05 on Mar 24, 2015 15:27:22 GMT -5
I'm not sure if this has been discussed before, please excuse me if it has, but is there any legitimate reason why Aiken's value would have dropped from last year? It seemed like his hype from last year labeled him as one of the best high school pitchers ever drafted (if he signed). I don't see anything drastic that changed from last year that would dethrone him as the favorite to go #1.
Is he realistically available at #7? (Man I hope so)
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Post by jrffam05 on Mar 24, 2015 14:11:29 GMT -5
I'm pretty excited for Brian Johnson in AAA this year. I feel like he is almost a forgotten man because scouting reports speak of him as a back end starter and he's surrounded by a pretty talented rotation. He's a lefthander with a fastball in the low 90's, 3 other averagish pitches, and has good command and posture on the mound.
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Post by jrffam05 on Mar 24, 2015 13:59:26 GMT -5
Picking apart the car argument I see. Well a car could give more expected value than you originally expected. If you get more usage out of it, like miles or years, than you expected, less maintenance costs than expected, and/or a higher salvage value than expected, then you could consider the car a better investment than the original amount. There are also different purposes of cars that people would value differently, a young single guy may put more value on a sports car, an older married women with kids may put more value on an SUV, and a landscaper may value a pickup more. It's not unreasonable for the Yankees to value short term performance over future potential performance. As for Jimed's post, the car was suppose to put money is perspective to an average person. 63 Million is a lot to the Yankees regardless of how much they have. The Moncada car is not the only car on the market either, they could be interested in a preowned Cole Hamels car, or wait for next years models of Jason Heyward or Jordan Zimmerman.
Fact is, everyone who followed baseball handicapped Yankees as the favorites to get Moncada, and that could have skewed our view of what was really happening behind the Yankees closed doors. When Moncada came to Cashman with deals in hand, Cashman could have already known Moncada was priced out of his teams valuation, which makes sense if the 25M/one hour deadline was a last ditch effort to get Moncada before he moved on.
Edit: Just saw Jmei's post, I won't add any more if this has already been discussed. I relinquish the remainder of my time for the defense of the Yankees.
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Post by jrffam05 on Mar 24, 2015 13:19:46 GMT -5
The Yankees were given the opportunity to top the Red Sox‘s $31.5MM offer to Yoan Moncada, but declined. “We scouted him extensively for years,” Yankees GM Brian Cashman said. “I feel we put him through the highest level of scouting and medical evaluation. I just wasn’t comfortable offering what we actually offered ($25MM), let alone going any higher.“ MLBTR I wonder what makes a kid worth $25 million, but not $33? If he had gone to NY, they would be talking about how they thoroughly scouted him and thought he was a future HOFer in the making, so I'm not all too worried about Cashman's comments. I'm more interested in what other GM's think of his potential. When you say 33 and 25, you really mean 66 and 50, which is what it would have came to after the tax. That's also a 32% increase on a bonus that shattered any previous bonus ever given, and Cashman said he was already uncomfortable with the 25M offer. Maybe that's just posture, but personally I don't find that hard to believe the Yankees side of this. Their cash flows are down and their payroll is up. The next three years they will continue to have unfavorable contracts for aging stars, and they take bigger hits financially in seasons they miss the playoffs than any other baseball team (and probably any sports team). They just spent 15M on the international market which they were also taxed on the overages. They very well could have discounted future performance and put a premium on current performances compared to our view. If it takes Moncada 2 years in the minors, he would debut at the same time Tex and Beltran come off the books, with CC having his option year, the year after that A-Rod comes off. They could plan to use that money on a proven starter at that time, instead of taking the gamble now. I'll go back to the car argument, would you pay 40K for a 30K car because you liked it? If you really saw the worth of that car at 30K, chances are you wouldn't purposely deviate much from that price. As much as we all love Moncada and we are excited about the signing, there is a real chance the Sox spent 60M+ on a guy who may never see an inning in the majors. I don't see skipping out on that risk as a bad strategy, just a different one.
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Post by jrffam05 on Mar 24, 2015 10:16:13 GMT -5
1. How many games will the Red Sox win in 2015? (points +/-1 either way) 93 2. Who will win AL MVP? Trout 3. Who will win AL Cy Young? David Price 4. Who will win AL Rookie of the Year? Castillo 5. Who will win the World Series? Red Sox 6. Which current or ex-Red Sox player/prospect will get the most MVP vote points in 2015? Rizzo 7. Who starts the most games for Boston after Porcello, Buchholz, Miley, Masterson, and Kelly? Wright 8. Who is the first player to be added to the 25-man roster on or after April 15? (players coming off the DL do not count). Castillo 9. Who is the first player to earn a permanent promotion after the season starts? (from any level to any level - not just to Boston - but excluding rehab re-assignments or call-ups from XST) Castillo 10. Name one player the Red Sox will draft in 2015. Sure hope it's Aiken
Red Sox minor league system only 11. Which pitcher has the most wins? Brian Johnson 12. Most strikeouts? Owens 13. Which hitter hits the most home runs? Travis Shaw 14. Best OPS? (min 200 PAs) JBJ 15. Most stolen bases? Margot 16. Who will be voted the Offensive POY as voted by the SP Community? Devers 17. Pitcher of the Year? Rodriguez 18. Breakout POY? Chavis 19. Comeback POY? Ball 20. Which prospect will make the biggest jump in the SoxProspects rankings? Pat Light
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Post by jrffam05 on Mar 23, 2015 16:01:32 GMT -5
A 70 hit tool is saying a guy will annually hit over .300 (http://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/ask-ba-why-is-batting-average-still-used-for-the-hit-tool/). 16 guys in MLB hit .300 last year. So what is the definition of a 80 hit tool, and has anyone ever had one? I'm thinking in recent years Ichiro, Mauer, maybe Pujolz? Also does the hit tool take plate approach into account?
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Post by jrffam05 on Mar 23, 2015 15:17:59 GMT -5
Question, when we are picking from questions 11 on, is it only prospect eligible players? Can we pick someone like JBJ, Castillo, Workman?
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Post by jrffam05 on Mar 23, 2015 9:41:16 GMT -5
So if the staff was waiting until they saw Moncada before ranking him, this means they 1) had first hand scouting on Moncada and 2) decided that Swihart is the better prospect? Are these assumptions correct?
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Post by jrffam05 on Mar 23, 2015 8:25:49 GMT -5
I had no idea I won in 2013. I didn't think the results were published (were they?)
I'd add in my picks to this post at a later date.
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Post by jrffam05 on Mar 20, 2015 15:21:36 GMT -5
I have it on very good authority that what actually happened is that Cuddyer (or rather his agents, I guess) was desperately searching for a team to sign him before he had to accept the QO, in part because he hated Colorado. New strategy, make your mid level players so miserable that they refuse your qualifying offer. Brilliant!
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Post by jrffam05 on Mar 19, 2015 14:56:12 GMT -5
Question, where does Moncada have more external value, 2B or 3B, given his offensive/defensive skills?
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Post by jrffam05 on Mar 19, 2015 13:32:20 GMT -5
I think there is a real possibility Victorino could be worth a QO, although not to the extent that they wouldn't trade him because of it. Lot's of factors, mostly around his health/performance, which most people seem (rightfully) down on.
Let's say Vic puts up a solid and healthy season which leads to a projection of around 2.5 war (big if, but it's close to his current fangraphs projection over 550 AB). That would put him close to the 14-15M QO worth. Sox have shown they prefer overspending in the short term rather than committing to longer years at a better AAV. They solve the outfield equation by letting Napoli walk and moving Hanley to 1B, giving us Betts, Castillo, and Victorino in the outfield while using the rest of the offseason spending on pitching. This would also depend on what happens with Craig, Nava, and Bradley.
Not a probable outcome, but certainty a reasonable one. Not as bad as last year when I was suggesting Sizemore could possibly be worth a qualifying offer. Bad move on my part bringing that track record up while arguing a QO possibility.
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Post by jrffam05 on Mar 19, 2015 11:28:32 GMT -5
Haha I was pretty happy when I saw that this morning. Honestly I am a little bit surprised they are doing it before this season, but I guess they are really confident he's going to have an incredible season. Yelich has 1 year and 69 days of service time right now, so I think he might come up short of Super 2, not sure though. Edit: Haha everyone posted almost the same thing while I was looking up his service time. They aren't.....they haven't even approached him or his agents yet....it's kinda a non-story. The Sox are " interested" in extending him, well I'm interested in dating Kate Upton but that doesn't mean it's going to happen. Wake me when they have actually exchanged real numbers. These two interested are in different ballparks. The Sox have the money to extend Betts, they have the channel to open negotiations, they have 6 years of exclusive negotiation rights to work out an extension. Until the story becomes official there is never a report that can guarantee something is going to happen, but that doesn't mean it wouldn't make for good discussion on a baseball forum.
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Post by jrffam05 on Mar 19, 2015 10:57:14 GMT -5
In this particular case, there's an additional benefit if the Sox get it done before opening day. The AAV would then be spread into this year, a year they've already said would be over the cap. Additionally, next year, a year in which they have a lot coming off the books, AAV would be increased there as well. The net result is that at some point down the road, Mookie will be making considerably more than his AAV which could be huge at the tail end. ADD: It might even be beneficial to have more guaranteed years and less option years because option years aren't included in the ongoing AAV. I think in that circumstance it might be the opposite. They'd not want Betts AAV to increase in a year they are guaranteed to be over the cap, because of the penalty associated. We would see that added AAV in future years, but there is no guarantee that we'd be over the cap, or we may have future actions to restructure the payroll under the cap (Young players in, big contracts out). Typically team's like to see their savings in current years and worry about future years later, that's why we see a lot of backloading and deferred payments. Wasn't it a similar situation with the A-Gon extension, waiting till after the season to announce ? I guess if the thought is they would leverage his AAV 6-7 years from now to get under the limit that logic applies, but it seems to far away to be able to control.
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Post by jrffam05 on Mar 19, 2015 10:27:17 GMT -5
10 years, 140 million. Get it done. I'm going to assume you weren't serious. Using Yelich's 7/51 extension as the baseline, and with Mookie having an extra year of team control, you are paying 89M for 2 extra years over what Yelich got. Good article on Yelich's contract and similar ones. I'd love to lock up Betts on a deal like this. www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-perfectly-reasonable-christian-yelich-extension/
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Post by jrffam05 on Mar 18, 2015 14:25:03 GMT -5
Pet the twitter feed Ian Cundall Ian Cundall4 ABs for Chavis today. 3B to RF, HR to LF, 2B to RF, BB. Really showed what he can do at the plate. Advanced bat for a High School draftee. Have a day kid.
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Post by jrffam05 on Mar 18, 2015 12:28:23 GMT -5
Right, was wondering what the Giants would have to give up for the Red Sox to agree to trade Craig. I think it's a worthwhile discussion considering the outfield logjam and Craig's unique situation. Unlikely though.
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Post by jrffam05 on Mar 18, 2015 11:36:57 GMT -5
Peter Gammons ? @pgammo Follow
Despite injuries, Giants not actively pursuing OF. If theydo, they want power. Inquired on Allen Craig,but Sox not interested in selling low 7:00 PM - 17 Mar 2015
Wondering what breaks the threshold of selling low on Craig is, or who do the Giants have that would be of interest to us?
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