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Post by kungfuizzy on Jul 18, 2014 17:50:00 GMT -5
Has anyone started looking at which free agents will be given qualifying offers? Just doing a quick scan: Probably: Hanley Ramirez Chase Headley Pablo Sandoval Nelson Cruz Max Scherzer Jon Lester Maybe: JJ Hardy Asdrubal Cabrera Jed Lowrie I don't think the Sox would sign Hanley, Scherzer isn't coming to Boston, and I don't think any of the other guys make much sense for the Red Sox either if they cost a draft pick. You probably need to add Koji into here as well. I'm sure he's going to get a 2 year deal somewhere and there is zero risk in this given the fact he is showing no signs of slowing down.
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Post by kungfuizzy on Jun 17, 2014 17:43:09 GMT -5
He's not popular, but he's quite relevant. Dan Shaughnessy wondered in his column today about the sox farm system. Most of you won't like this, but he has an interesting point. The top prospects are at AA or above. The major league team stinks and one reason is there's no depth. It's a perfect chance for new blood, yet there is none. Last year Allen Webster busted in his call up. Middlebrooks has been terrible. JBJ's hitting is as bad as I've seen from a Sox regular outfielder in my lifetime (I was born in the '60s). His defense is excellent but offense is necessary. Bogaerts is going to be an excellent third baseman but even he looks like a position switch. Heck, Stephen Drew had to be re-signed. There's plenty of opportunity, but not much help available from the farm. Back in the 90s we heard over and over about the Blue Jays farm system. Baseball America and Peter Gammons were in prickly heat about it. Jose Pet, Sil Campusano anyone? It turned out to be a myth. Of course, the 80s blue jays system was historically terrific. At some point, we need to leave the vacuum and honestly ask whether the Sox system is all hype. I'm not scouting box scores. I'm looking at the players on the field. The problem with CHB is this. He is only around when there is a negative spin needed on Boston sports. His career should have ended with the Curse of the Bambino. A curse that made CHB a lot of money in print. I really do put zero substance in anything he says. If you want to look at systems ask Law Badler etc...I'm assuming they know more than CHB. This is akin to asking my grandfather how to operate a brand new MacBook. Is it possible? Yes. Would you take his word over the people that use it everyday? Absolutely not. Maybe I'm biased because I met him at the Winter Meetings on business a few years back and he was an insufferable D-Bag but I stand by what I said regardless of my personal feelings towards him. The system has taken a leap forward this year. You need not look any further than Brian Johnson, Rafael Devers, Blake Swihart, Devin Marrero, and Sean Coyle to see that. Infact the only prospect who probably hasn't helped his value at all is Barnes. Webster has his again and RDLR, while technically not a prospect anymore, has proven along with Workman to be able to put a few quality starts together. Almost half way through the year and this has to be considered a tremendous success for the organization. Oh I forgot about Betts... The MLB team on the other hand... I have high hopes for the 2014 draftees as well.
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Post by kungfuizzy on Jun 6, 2014 16:45:02 GMT -5
Lower ceiling, as Reilly succeeds more on the basis of command and movement than velocity, but a guy who will probably reach the majors, which is more than you can say about most 7th-rounders. He could move quickly through the system. I REALLY want the sox to draft fenway parks I wonder what your reaction will be when he's drafted by the MFY?
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Post by kungfuizzy on Jun 6, 2014 6:12:48 GMT -5
Billy Butler would be okay... better than Mark Sweeney, anyway. Time to spend some serious time figuring out what it will take to sign those guys. Sounds like that Sox MIGHT have gotten through three rounds with net money to spend after figuring the 10%. Of course, they ate that extra money last year when Denney signed for a couple six packs and Boldt decided to make the Big Ten All-Freshman team for Nebraska. Let's be honest here. If Travis ends up being nearly as good as Mike Sweeney this is still a good pick. Hell if you draft 2-4 guys that make the majors it's still considered a solid draft. But damnit I wish the Sox signed Boldt
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Fire sale?
May 27, 2014 18:17:53 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by kungfuizzy on May 27, 2014 18:17:53 GMT -5
Jmei, I diagree about Uehara. He's become an elite reliever, and some good team with a bad bullpen is going to overpay for that type in July. I love watching him pitch so I'd hate to see him go, but if the Red Sox DO fall out of contention, he's the one player who it makes a lot of sense to deal. He'd bring a healthy return and he's less likely than many of the other parts to be on the next great Red Sox team. Toronto, Detroit and the Dodgers are all teams that I could see giving up a real prospect for Koji. Agreed 100% he would be at the top of the list to deal. Age and injury would be my main factors and I could see LA trading Joc Peterson for him push come to shove. Plus I think Boston could really still have a good pen even without Koji to stay somewhat watchable. But I would prefer this team stays the way it is they just need a spark. I think Webster or De La Rosa is that guy.
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Post by kungfuizzy on May 27, 2014 12:50:46 GMT -5
Before he got old, Jeter was a very good defensive shortstop - at times excellent. New York hyped him a little too much but he was good. He aged terribly defensively. Tejada not as good a Jeter, but I recall before he got old he was fine. Ramirez has always been a third baseman playing shortstop. Jeter always graded below average in range. To insinuate that Xander might be a bust because of his defense...I dunno it is a pretty CHB kind of argument.
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Post by kungfuizzy on May 5, 2014 5:56:48 GMT -5
Gordon Edes writes: Early numbers suggest Capuano's stuff is really playing up in the bullpen (.222 BABIP and 0 HR/FB won't be sustained but his xFIP at 2.61 is also more than a full point below career average), and I would be loathe to take him out of there before giving RDLR and/or Workman a shot. Let me say that I was completely wrong thus far about Capuano. I was also wrong about Capuano. I think the wrong move is to remove him from the pen. Instead I would promote Webster. As I mentioned in the offseason there is one thing notable about him. Websters control issues coincide with being promoted to a new level. He seems to do much better repeating a level after failing the year before. Although it wouldn't be hard to do better than an era of 8 I think we would see a better starter than Doubront right now. That's if the current trend is correct and he does much better his second time around. If the control is fixed then he has the highest ceiling and one of the least amount of miles on his arm out of the prospects.
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Post by kungfuizzy on Mar 7, 2014 13:53:34 GMT -5
...Whoever called him Derek Lowe is probably looking at best case scenario... No, not really. Webster and Lowe have, to my mind, a passing similarity at best. They can[could] both sink their fastballs, and they both had a slider. Aside from that they are very different pitchers. Webster can work at 95+ and take it up to 97-98 on occasions. It's very unusual to have a sinker that works at that speed. Lowe never got his much above 92-93. Early in his career he used a slider as his secondary offering, and it had decent bite. He even abandoned that towards the end. Webster has one of those also, and its not bad by all accounts and from what I've seen (on video), though I'd grade it below Lowe's at this point. But his go to pitch, the one he rubs hitters out with, is a killer changeup that looks just like the fastball out of the hand. He can fade that away from left handers and make them look silly. And because his sinker works at the higher speed, the changeup, which comes in at 87-88 leaves hitters with very little time to make their decision. Lowe had no such weapon in his arsenal. Moreover Webster has a fourth pitch, a curveball, which also flashes potential. Where Lowe did have it all over Webster is command and control. He could put his pitches where he wanted them, and just about any time. Once he got into his mid-20s he had a very tight package that only included those two pitches, but it didn't matter. They also looked the same coming out of his hand, but they did two completely different things, the hard sinker dropping through the zone - on either side of the plate - and the slider diving away from right-handers. He worked very quickly. Before you knew it, seven innings had rolled by and there was often little to show for it. Webster can only hope to get to that level of efficiency at this point. But when it comes to the stuff, there's not much to compare. I agree in terms of pure stuff Webster has the edge. I was talking in terms of putting it all together that Lowe would be probably the best case scenario. I like Webster but I don't know if he could put his stuff together to become that front line guy. Lowe was actually a front line guy for a small window of time too. I think people forget how good he was when he was really on. I do also have the "Derek Lowe" face engraved into my brain however. My three things that I would like to see him do are stop trying to throw the ball 120 mph by a hitter, mix in his secondary offerings a bit more, and learn better control. He seems like a mature guy so the anxiety stuff should be corrected with age. I love the change up and would love to see more of it.
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Post by kungfuizzy on Mar 7, 2014 7:23:39 GMT -5
Back in November I pegged this guy to have a huge bounce back year. The fact that it was more nerves than anything that made his control go nuts is a solid sign. Granted I would like a pitcher who has steel nerves as much as anyone else but let's face it, how would any of us deal with being 24 years old and being tasked with not only pitching in front of 40,000 people, but doing it in a place where every single move is scrutinized by fans and media? This isn't Tampa. Webster as soon as next year will be tasked with going out and pitching every 5th day against the best players in the world.
His main enemies will continue to be control and emotions. But lucky for him he seems to do quite well the seasons after he struggles. Whoever called him Derek Lowe is probably looking at best case scenario. He needs to use his sinker more and mix in his off speed offerings. The American League will hammer the crap out of his fastball. If he can model himself after Lowe on the field he will make that Dodgers trade more of a heist than the Slocumb deal.
To be honest, I like De La Rosa slightly more in terms of reaching his full potential. I look at him at worst case being an Octavio Dotel guy in the back end of the pen. Now that's not a knock on him if you'll remember correctly, Dotel had closer stuff in his prime and failed miserably at the role because he mentally couldn't handle it. As a starter the main thing with De La Rosa will once again be control. It's going to be interesting how he handles his 2nd full season back from TJ. Another thing to mention is that perhaps part of the struggles with both players stem from the expectations of outside the organization as living up to the guys they received for Adrian Gonzalez. I like how De La Rosa can get his velocity up and if he is still working with Pedro I think he's going to accomplish big things in 2014. Just my thoughts.
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Post by kungfuizzy on Feb 28, 2014 7:03:28 GMT -5
msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/kapler-red-sox-risk-of-signing-sizemore-could-pay-off-big-time-012414 This story by Gabe Kapler has my hopes a bit higher on Grady Sizemores future contributions to the Sox. A lot of what he says seems to make sense or maybe that is just me being an optimistic Sox fan. I'm no expert on the subject but there doesn't seem to be many examples of an athlete successfully coming back from microfracture surgery. Greg Oden comes to mind but he isn't exactly a success yet Either way it would certainly be a major addition if he regains 75+% of his former self by sometime later this year. Here is to hoping that he ends up being the story of the year!! That and a full year of Bucholtz at his best!! Amare comes to mind more than Greg Oden. I think he had micro fracture surgery twice as well. Sizemore is a great gamble and if he stays healthy and is even 80% of the player he once was I would take him at a few mil over paying Ellsbury 20+. I think if he shows he's healthy Nava is a goner. Sizemore has more of an impact on Nava/Carp than Bradley. Putting Sizemore in center after a couple of micro fracture surgeries on a full time basis is extremely risky.
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Post by kungfuizzy on Jan 23, 2014 7:01:39 GMT -5
I thought I made a positive post about Cherington. I think it did take him a little while to get going though. He couldn't even make decisions at first without taking off the training wheels, which is understandable but unfortunate. He wanted to hire one guy as manager but Luchino appears to have pushed him aside to get Valentine, which obviously was a complete disaster. The day everything changed was when they did the Beckett/Crawford deal. Which was terrific from day one and we all knew it. I worry a little bit that he might look at that deal's success and what happened last year with his lower budget signings and think he can always go with that approach. To me, Cherington is all about "prudent" decisions. Careful, prudent decisions. Sometimes you should to take a chance for the brass ring. I'm not sure prudence is going to always be the best approach. Sometimes you are better off going with the Dombroski approach and be willing to sign that premium player like Cabrera. I hope he is prudent over and over but once in a while, when a special player is available, do what is necessary for them. I actually like Cherington as one of the top 2-3 GMs in baseball. I'm not being negative. I think the training wheels are off. If Luchino ever speaks up again they should give him a muzzle. He should stick to marketing. But I'm in win now mode and we didn't get better this winter as far as I'm concerned. Luckily, Bogaerts might save his bacon though all by himself. I think there is a big drop off from Ellsbury to JBJ in the near future. We are going to miss Ellsbury and he is going to make the Yankees better. I still would have let him go though. I understand not being able to get Kuroda but I wonder if we even tried. And I still would have preferred trading Nava, Dempster ( with part of his salary included ) and a prospect or 2 for Butler. He was clearly available and would have been better than Napoli to me considering the money. Or some sort of deal for Choo who would have slotted extremely well as our lead off guy and peppered that wall in Fenway with doubles. We could have still stayed under the cap with Carp/Nava at 1st with maybe a RH bat from Corey Hart or Mike Morse and still be under the luxury tax limit. I think we might have had other options this winter which would have made the team better but overall Cherington has done an excellent job. If you were Kansas City would Dempster Nava and 2 lower level prospects be sufficient return for your best hitter?
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Post by kungfuizzy on Jan 14, 2014 7:07:09 GMT -5
Sickles' comment on Ranaudo's stuff seems suspect to me. I have him far lagging Webster and Barnes in that department, though Anthony has the best command out of those three. IIRC, Sickels has always loved Ranaudo and has consistently ranked him high. Well let's think about this here. Not disputing the fact he's a little high on him but Ranaudo was highly regarded coming out of college before the injury. It does take a while after surgery to get a feel for pitching again especially if you're still developing. The big question is was last year for real? The talent is there. But what do they have? The other two Barnes and Webster don't have his command as you mentioned, especially Webster who is probably the most maddening of all the Sox prospects. I feel we will get a chance to see all three in Boston this year so this question will certainly be answered in time. One slight observation. While Ranaundo's raw talent is unquestioned why is he much more highly regarded than another breakout player from last year, Mookie Betts? Higher ceiling, sure. Different position, sure. But both have been productive for one year as a pro. Betts if everything breaks right could be your prototypical #2 hitter. He could also be great trade bait too in the spring if someone like Stanton becomes available and he's one of the prospects that keeps producing. Boegarts is certainly my #1 prospect. After him it's all about preference. For example I have Cecchini at #6 because I don't see him developing more than 15 homer power and while the hit tool overall is solid if he switches positions and goes to left field he'll be average. I'd put my top 5 as Xander, Bradley, Swihart, Webster then Owens Why am I very high on Webster? It's not a stuff issue with him it's all about harnessing his control. He's pitched for 4-5 years and control can be a difficult thing to learn if you're still somewhat new to pitching (I get that will annoy people on this site) learning a delivery and repeating said delivery takes time. I think he takes a gigantic leap forward this year. His stuff compares to Clay's when he was in the minors. Not his numbers but his pure stuff. Swihart I'll defend this until the end. There is no more valuable prospect in all of baseball in my opinion than a young cost controlled catcher that is a dual threat. He'll probably never be Posey but he probably has the potential to be about 60-70% of him and a regular starter on a 1st division team that could sneak a few all star appearances in. If he can become Salvador Perez for example I would be extremely happy. The fact that any of these guys after Xander and Bradley can be interchangeable speaks to the depth of this system and really isn't a knock on any particular player. Right now one of if not the best system in baseball.
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Post by kungfuizzy on Jan 11, 2014 13:46:50 GMT -5
bullshit. the yankees shouldnt get to get out from under a horrible investment. They only get out of it for 1 year. I believe he has something like 3 more years under that wonderful contract.
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Post by kungfuizzy on Jan 6, 2014 7:02:50 GMT -5
I think this guy is an Andrew Miller type - a pitcher a lot of people are convinced will be a #1 starter, but who ultimately will be a pen arm. Someone may fix Webster but - as Speier said recently - if many teams still consider him the #1 starter-type who is near MLB ready, I would sell as high as I could on this guy if someone is dumb enough to give you the kind of return you'd expect on a #1 starting pitcher prospect. I have been praying that Miami loves him and he becomes the cornerstone of a package for Giancarlo Stanton, that way the Sox would only have to give up 2-3 other good prospects. I would move him soon for the best package I could get before other teams stop drooling and start seeing his best case comp is not Michael Wacha but rather Daniel Bard, if that. I say that as I have said before on Webster, hoping I am very, very wrong (unless they trade him, of course - then I hope he goes all Jobba implosion immediately). Wacha was only the 6th rated prospect in the Cards system and struggled initially. Granted he had a nice playoff run but so did Doubront. Wacha profiles lower than a guy like Martinez who could actually become a #1. I'm a believer Webster will figure it out and become a good #2 eventually. I would love for it to be this year so they can either feel comfortable in allowing Peavy to leave or as you put it, use him in a Stanton deal. Either scenario the Sox win.
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Post by kungfuizzy on Jan 5, 2014 10:37:25 GMT -5
As I said last year, it will take patience with Webster. He intersperses stretches where few of his pitches can find the zone, and when they do they're in the heart of the plate, with innings where hitters can't find his pitches to save their lives. His stuff is ridiculous, oftentimes too ridiculous for him to even make sense of. But he's still young and, despite the steep learning curve, he's made it to AAA. There is hope. He just needs a vision of his ceiling, that place way up there in the sky. What he really needs is control. If they can harness his stuff then the Sox have a potential ace. Same with RDLR. They both just need to learn control. I think his prospect status shouldn't have taken that much of a hit at all.
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Post by kungfuizzy on Jan 2, 2014 15:17:58 GMT -5
I'm curious guidas - what is the largest contract you would be willing to sign Tanaka to? I've been advocating him for about a week now. I do not believe the reports that Tanaka will get 100 million. I think his contract will probably fall into where Anibal Sanchez signed for. Around 5/80 with a performance based 6th year option to bring it to $91-93 million. I would also like to add this. Think of a guy like Buxton or Boegarts or any other highly regarded prospect and tell me how much teams would pay if they were on the open market today. Tanaka is 26 and has the tools to become an ace. He's older than Walker but is it crazy to think that if Walker was a free agent there would be some team that would overpay to secure his talent for the next 5-6 years at a premium rate as opposed to signing a guy like Vargas or Feldman?
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Post by kungfuizzy on Dec 31, 2013 11:28:09 GMT -5
I'll stick to the rules and not suggest a trade per se Burt I think young pitching is the most marketable commodity and that's what I would move. I would see who is the highest regarding aaa started by others that is our lowest rated one. For me it is Webster. I would look for in return a super sub who may be able to ultimately move to the outfield. I think that is the gap in the current roster and it is thon rolling forward. Webster if he learns control is going to be another Buchholz. That comparison has been made in a podcast to two and it makes sense. I wouldn't deal Webster for a super sub unless if it's a lifetime supply of them from Chicken Lou's (Northeastern Hangout). Let's be serious for a second if you look at Websters track record in the minors he has pretty much had to repeat most of the levels he has been at. Maybe this is a guy who just needs time to familiarize himself with his surroundings. Either way I think he'll learn control and become our best SP prospect this year. He is after all the only one besides Ball that has that #1 ceiling.
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Post by kungfuizzy on Dec 30, 2013 19:46:07 GMT -5
So the Sox have an opportunity to get a 26 year old pitcher that projects as a #2 and all it costs is money? Due to the age of the player the potential for Tanaka to bust is actually quite small. At least for the first few years. I would argue that Tanaka at 16-17 million is a much better bet than someone like Feldman at 10. The market has been going crazy with money and the Sox over the next few years will be one of the best equipped to make a move like this due to the lack of anchor contracts. I'm not advocating giving him $20 million a year and ditching Lester. But if you look at this. Lackey is making the minimum in 2015, Doubront is still a question mark and Dempster is surely getting moved. Getting Tanaka in the fold gives Boston the ability to keep Lester (I would assume they give him a deal after April so the hit doesn't carry over until next year) and keep the teams core strong in pitching. You can never have enough. As far as the "kids" in AAA you cannot depend on them having Tanaka like success. There is no one down there that has his upside let alone the upside of someone like Jose Fernandez (we like to pump up our prospects sometimes). I feel like somehow Darvish has made a lot of people forget about Matsuzaka, who came over with just as much hype. Tanaka is nowhere near a sure thing. He's certainly got a high potential for success, but he is nearly universally thought of as a lesser pitcher than Darvish. What I've read indicates that his success in Japan is due to good control and a variety of good pitches, but that he doesn't have a true out pitch, which is unlikely to result in the same success in the US that he had in Japan. Anyway, my main point is that while he's certainly got a good possibility to be a good pitcher, the potential for him to get hurt or turn out to be closer to Ryan Dempster is plenty high. No, none of the six well-thought of Red Sox pitching prospects, individually, have the same likelihood of turning out to be a #2, but combined, I'd say they have a higher probability (and at much lower salaries). Of course, as others have pointed out, it's not an either/or situation, and the Sox will likely need another starter sometime soon, whether it's 2015 or 2106. I think the interesting thought experiment is at what kind of a salary you would want Tanaka. Clearly some of the people on the board would do it for something close to what it will take. But at some point he obviously makes sense. At $10 million a year, I can't imagine anyone saying it'd be a bad idea. What about $15 million? Given the salary inflation we've seen this winter, $15 million is really not that much. Regardless of all of this, I can't imagine the Sox will not meet the $20 million posting fee. I think it's unlikely that they wind up being a serious contender given the six major league starters and abundance of young pitching potential, but there's no reason to not at least see what'd take. Dice K actually was not that bad through his first few seasons. If you look at recently posted Japanese Imports over the last few years the last true bust was Igawa. I would disagree on the out pitch. He is young enough where one of his pitches might actually turn out of be an out pitch. He does have one thing that this coaching staff loves, he goes at hitters. Pitching wins titles as we just saw last month. In this case wouldn't it be better to overpay a young arm that if everything breaks right would be paid below current market value than say someone like Vargas or Feldman? I love the idea of adding a young talent that only costs money and could be a building block for years to come especially when it doesn't come at the expense of young prospects or a draft pick.
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Post by kungfuizzy on Dec 30, 2013 15:36:59 GMT -5
I really don't get why some people think Tanaka is almost a sure thing while at the same time using the logic of "all 6 of our pitching prospects are unproven" to justify it. I feel pretty confident that at least one of our prospects will end up being a better pitcher than Tanaka. Hopefully it won't be with another team. The only flag for Tanaka is his innings pitched. However as fan graphs mentioned Darvish actually pitched more innings before heading over here. The Japanese leagues are slightly above AAA and below MLB in terms of competition. Just because the Sox get Tanaka doesn't mean they have to trade prospects. I would counter with if anything Tanaka would be replacing Peavy Lackey and Dempster, long term. You get Lester Buchholz and Tanaka and then the other two spots will eventually be filled internally for the future. Tanaka has nothing to do with anyone pitching in AA or AAA and if anything gives the Sox less of a reason to rush a guy like Owens or Barnes. With all of the contracts that have been handed out I think Tanaka is the one that makes the most sense. Young pitcher not even in his "prime", someone who fangraphs compares to Jared Weaver in terms of his stuff. I don't know about you but if any of our prospects approaches Tanaka's level let alone exceeds it I'll be very excited. If you're going to take a gamble it might as well be on pitching. You can always find a team willing to take a pitcher if for whatever reason he doesn't work out. Plus adding to the depth isn't a bad idea either. The Sox by getting Tanaka would also control the market and be able to set their own price for one of Dempster Peavy and Lackey due to the alternative being overpaying Ubaldo and Santana on the FA market. Garza IMO is the only solid top SP left due to his ability to pitch in big games. If you want leverage in negotiations then take all other alternatives off the table and you'll be able to set your price.
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Post by kungfuizzy on Dec 30, 2013 13:10:41 GMT -5
So the Sox have an opportunity to get a 26 year old pitcher that projects as a #2 and all it costs is money? Due to the age of the player the potential for Tanaka to bust is actually quite small. At least for the first few years. I would argue that Tanaka at 16-17 million is a much better bet than someone like Feldman at 10. The market has been going crazy with money and the Sox over the next few years will be one of the best equipped to make a move like this due to the lack of anchor contracts.
I'm not advocating giving him $20 million a year and ditching Lester. But if you look at this. Lackey is making the minimum in 2015, Doubront is still a question mark and Dempster is surely getting moved. Getting Tanaka in the fold gives Boston the ability to keep Lester (I would assume they give him a deal after April so the hit doesn't carry over until next year) and keep the teams core strong in pitching. You can never have enough. As far as the "kids" in AAA you cannot depend on them having Tanaka like success. There is no one down there that has his upside let alone the upside of someone like Jose Fernandez (we like to pump up our prospects sometimes).
In 2016 a rotation of
Lester Buchholz Tanaka Doubront Owens/Barnes/RDLR/Webster
Looks pretty good to me. Also gives us the opportunity to move Lackey for a valuable prospect. Trade Dempster and potentially trade Peavy for prospects. Peavy might not be a bad guy to keep but options are still plenty since the Sox would then control the pitching market.
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Post by kungfuizzy on Dec 15, 2013 9:30:46 GMT -5
The reality is that they can trade Nava right? If Nava is 90% of Choo for 5% of the cost then he should be worth a lot of player value correct? They spent $16 mil on Napoli. Wouldn't Nava be able to replace most of the value there as well. But we paid $16 mil for that shiny toy. What counts is the net value in the aggregate. That's the reality. Nava is no where even close to 90% of the player Choo is. Last year was most likely an aberration. However he does have value because he is cost controlled, coming off a career year and can play multiple positions. Choo isn't a good bet to hit lefties which is why the Sox should forget any notion of overpaying him. They don't need to be bogged down with that contract. However I do think he would be perfect with a team like the Pirates. A team that can get away with paying him because of the good will for making the playoffs for the first time in 21 years and would slot in extremely well with Cutch and Marte. Who am I kidding, he's going to Seattle or Houston for some ridiculous amount of cash.
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Post by kungfuizzy on Dec 11, 2013 18:33:51 GMT -5
I've been racking two trades in my head for about a week now. Granted both are extreme long shots but they make sense in a vacuum. Since both trades fill the teams need for starting pitching.
Trade 1 Phillies receive Ryan Dempster
Red Sox receive Jonathan Papelbon and cash to cover 50% of his deal.
Why the Phillies do it: Dempster is a really good bet to rebound in the National League. He's under control for only one year and playing in a division where a durable guy like him could rebound vs teams like the Marlins and Mets would certainly help.
Why the Sox do it: Forget for a second the whole closer thing. The Sox wouldn't get him to be the 9th inning guy again. But he would be insurance incase if Koji falters and Tazawa wears down. Fangraphs had a troubling report on him losing velocity on his heater but you have to wonder if maybe Papelbon was worn down or was pitching hurt. He looked pretty good at times and then wore down as the season went on.
Does it make sense? On the surface sure. Then you look at the downward trends and then you realize that even if Philadelphia pitches in 50% of his contract it would still make him a $13 million dollar reliever who isn't closing as opposed to a $13 million innings eating SP.
Trade 2 Yankees trade Ichiro Suzuki
Red Sox trade Ryan Dempster
Why the Yankees do it: Massive surplus of OF talent. Ichiro seems a shell of his former self and has no place to play with Gardner/Ellsbury/Beltran all starting. They also need SP help
Why the Sox do it: Gives them flexibility to trade Nava or Carp. Ichiro moves into left and gives them a bat to spell Bradley incase if he flames out.
Does it make sense? Yes. Except for the fact the Sox have not made a trade with the Yankees since Mike Stanley. Ichiro and Dempster are both at the tail end of their careers and a swap would actually benefit all involved. However, the Sox will never trade with the hated rivals.
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Post by kungfuizzy on Dec 10, 2013 16:42:26 GMT -5
According to MLBTR the Rockies have Acquired Brett Anderson and an unlimited supply of bubble wrap for Drew Pomeranz and Chris Jensen.
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Post by kungfuizzy on Dec 8, 2013 22:22:19 GMT -5
On two points. I say keep 6 starters until you're sure Clay B is healthy. He didn't look healthy in Sep. or Oct. On Kemp, I think it was jmei that mentioned the lack of looking at his shoulder problems. Beside the money , not many have produced after major shoulder problems. Kalish is one dream that doesn't cost much. Kemp's cost is too much for the risk IMO. How do you feel about posters clamoring for Shin Soo Choo? He would cost the same as Kemp and is not even half the player as he is. Even a 2014 version of Kemp would be helped alone by the park adjustments going away from Chavez/PETCO and playing 38 games in The Toilet and Fenway. That alone has to count in any projection. I wouldn't be crazy at 20 million a year but compared to Ellsbury's contract and the one Choo is supposed to get he would be a steal IF he's healthy. I would assume that Ben would do his homework on Kemp's medicals before pulling the trigger.
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Post by kungfuizzy on Dec 7, 2013 16:04:47 GMT -5
At this age, Kemp should recover from these injuries if he can take the time to fully recover before playing. It is a risk to take him on, but his value now may never be lower, assuming he does recover. If the Dodgers are willing to eat some of his contract, and are willing to take back a contract like Dempster, and don't demand a Cecchini type prospect in the deal, I think the Sox should, and, most likely, would do the deal. I would assume that the deal would include a couple of good prospects, just shy of the top tier. We don't know if any of those ifs are possible, other than what the rumor mill has reported. Even if he missed much of the next season to get fully recovered, the deal would be worth it. And at the least he probably would still be a good DH after Ortiz leaves. I have a feeling that Kemp will be acquired by Wednesday. Sox will probably send Dempster and a few mid tier prospects. Just the way the smoke is blowing these days
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