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Post by kungfuizzy on Dec 7, 2013 4:06:22 GMT -5
Why didn't we even try to sign him? From all indications. We could have spent the $16 mil we gave Napoli and for just a little bit more and maybe signed a guy who might have been our #1 next year. And be able to trade a Dempster or Peavy to free up cash and or get a player in Peavy's instance and then use that cash to round off the team with more depth or overall talent. Signing Kuroda or even attempting to sign Kuroda would have hurt the Yanks badly, and we will regret not hurting those guys next year as they go on to potentially run the table of the FA talent left remaining. They are retooling big time and if they couldn't have re signed Kuroda it would have been very difficult for them to reconstruct the top pitching staff they need. Spare me the baseless insults. They are unwarranted. Kuroda was a reasonable option whether you guys liked it or not. I get that he was reported to want to stay a Yankee but isn't that what all these guys say? We should have made a run at him. And upgraded our pitching staff while jettisoning the lower rated guys off to other teams to save cash or pick up talent for other needs. Why cite statistics and data which is clearly relevant when you guys just spit it out like a sub 3.4 ERA and 200 innings pitched on average for 4 years in a row means he's "high risk". Kuroda is the opposite of high risk and to me acquisition of a top 10 starter in the league is high reward. Let's look at this. -Kuroda has been on record countless times as saying it's either Japan or the Bronx -Napoli's bat and defense last year makes him a solid get for those terms. The contracts that are being thrown around in the off season are going to cripple teams 5 years down the road. Napoli is a solid teammate too. -Zero realistic options to replace him. Lavarnway isn't a legit option his power has decreased every year. Carp and Nava are both better suited for platoon roles.Travis Shaw is also not the answer. I get that draft picks in this draft are huge because it's "deep". However the FO needs to keep some of the people in the clubhouse happy also and show that they are committed to winning. I agree about Drew but they have their own pick and the one for Ellsbury so far. They aren't doing bad here.
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Post by kungfuizzy on Dec 4, 2013 11:15:43 GMT -5
Correct. I think we have to consider the fact that Ben is ok not winning the World Series next season. Do you really think he expected to take the trophy home this past season. That was lightning in a bottle. Ben has a plan and he's not deviating due to a title. It's not unexpected to see the media wondering on all the big free agents with Ellsbury, Napoli, Salty, and Drew hitting the market. Even now various analysts are concerned with the "hole" in CF. Will they sign Choo and move Victorino to CF? What about Granderson? They don't seem to even know who JB Jr is or understand he is a viable option. I believe Ben's plan all along was to have JB Jr and Bogaerts starting this season and take what lumps may result. Just as he is clearing the way for Swihart/Vazquez. His goal is building the next great Red Sox dynasty. He will plug holes (ie. Victorino, Drew, Napoli, Gomes) when needed but not take excessive deals. We'll see an additional signing or two but not past three seasons. He may add a longer deal via a trade but only at a discount (ie Kemp). Meanwhile Ben will collect draft picks, spend internationally and develop talent. While the system is graduating two high end talents this year the system has the potential to be better or at least deeper by next off season with a solid draft and international period. Maybe the MFY resign Cano. Maybe they somehow get Tanaka. Perhaps they are better then Boston for a year or two. Still I'll take my chances with a team that is much younger, continues to be a viable playoff contender, isn't hindered long term by luxury tax thresholds and has the resources in the farm system to replace free agent vacancies, plug injury related losses and make significant trades to add impact players all the while having substantial financial backing when needed. The next part of the plan will be to sign the young talent long term. Obviously Bogaerts and Bradley have a few seasons until that discussion but I can see the team buying out a few arb years to get a team friendly deal over a longer period of time. This team may only win 86 games next season but my expectations are for this to be a bridge year of sorts. It seems to be between stages as the young players gain valuable experience. My only real concern between now and the start of the 2015 season is how will the team replace the offense of Ortiz unless he signs a one year extension and continues to produce without much drop in performance however unlikely. My plan is to enjoy watching Bogaerts and Bradley develop at the MLB level as I have waited anxiously for them to arrive. I will closely follow WMB as I expect to see a bounce back season offensively. I will continue to enjoy the growth of the many prospects preparing to contribute very soon (ie. Cecchini, Vazquez, Webster, Barnes, Ranaudo, De La Rosa), soon (ie. Owens, Betts, Marrero, Johnson) and down the road (Ball, Margot, Stankiewicz, Devers, etc). I am no doubt biased but there is no team top to bottom more exciting to follow. There is a big difference between not expecting to win a World Series and not expecting to contend. The plan you outline turns the Sox into a below .500 bunch. If they wanted that then they never would have signed Gomes Victorino and Napoli last year. Like it or not the Sox will contend next year it's just a question of how they'll replace Ellsbury/Napoli/Drew and the 2013 version of Ortiz in this lineup. You cannot count on Papi having the season he had again.
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Post by kungfuizzy on Dec 4, 2013 9:44:46 GMT -5
I'd still take Hart on a one yr deal, take the draft pick and use this year to rebuild the team a bit, maybe get a relief pitcher. Let Drew walk. Make some trades if necessary. Next year is a deep draft. Rebuild the team? They have one of the deepest systems in baseball and just won the WS. I do get what you're saying but I think the term rebuild should mean something completely different than what you're implying. How about retool? I could get behind replacing Napoli with Hart and letting Drew leave.
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Post by kungfuizzy on Nov 29, 2013 17:17:48 GMT -5
They have no interest in trading Cecchini, or they have no interest in trading Cecchini for what the Marlins were offering? It seems the Sox prospect pool at least matches up with the Marlins' perceived needs very well. Would you move Nava, Cecchini, Betts, and say Vasquez for Stanton? Can't it be both? Sox can have no interest in moving someone but be willing to do it for the right cost. For instance, the Sox have no interest in trading Bogaerts, but if the Marlins offered them Fernandez and Stanton then they'd have no choice. Intentionally, unrealistic to illustrate the point. Well that's exactly it. The Marlins probably offered the Sox Morrison for him and they had no interest. Now if you offer Stanton for a package and insist that he's a part of it then they would be insane not to do it. I wouldn't 100% rule out Cecchini breaking camp IF the Sox fail to sign a 1B. Even if they sign Hart, I could still see it happening. Hart to LF and WMB to 1B which would leave the hot corner for Cecchini. Look at what Bradley did in the spring last year. It's certainly possible that him and a guy like Butler have big roles on the 2014 Red Sox
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Post by kungfuizzy on Nov 20, 2013 6:59:44 GMT -5
Trade
John Lackey + to PIT for someone like Tallon who still has upside but has underperformed so far. Ryan Dempster to MIL Franklin Morales to ATL for a B- level minor leaguer
Sign Mike Napoli 2/26 Chris Young 1/7 Salty 2/20 John McDonald (Minor League Deal) Willie Bloomquist (Minor League Deal) Edward Mujica 1/5 Roy Halladay 1/4 deal has incentives that can raise it up to 11 mil
Lineup
RF Shane Victorino LF Daniel Nava 2B Dustin Pedroia DH David Ortiz 1B Mike Napoli SS Xander Bogaerts C Salty 3B Will Middlebrooks CF Jackie Bradley Jr/Chris Young (Platoon)
Bench C David Ross LF Jonny Gomes 1B Mike Carp INF Willie Bloomquist
Rotation LHP Jon Lester RHP Clay Buchholz RHP Roy Halladay LHP Felix Doubront RHP Jake Peavy
Bullpen RHP Koji Uehara RHP Junichi Tazawa RHP Edward Mujica RHP Brandon Workman LHP Craig Breslow LHP Andrew Miller Final Spot RDLR/Webster/Wright/Britton/Hinojosa (Sox go with a high upside arm with starting experience to replace Morales)
I would also like to mention that Napoli and Salty can easily become interchangeable with Corey Hart and someone like Vazquez if they feel he's ready. If that happens then this is the lineup I would go with. Again this is being really really aggressive with Vazquez so they might just let Butler run with it. I do not want this organization going after McCann due to age and money he will command. I don't want them giving up value for Hanigan because he can frame pitches. Lavarnway isn't the answer either. Vazquez and Butler are probably both ready with the glove. I'm more inclined to give Butler a try due to his age. You need to see what you have there (despite the fact he profiles better as a backup). Not to mention since you aren't resigning your guys or any QO free agents you are getting 3 more picks in a loaded 2014 draft.
Alt Lineup
RF Shane Victorino LF Daniel Nava 2B Dustin Pedroia DH David Ortiz 1B Corey Hart SS Xander Bogaerts 3B Will Middlebrooks CF Jackie Bradley Jr/Chris Young (Platoon) C Christian Vazquez/Dan Butler/David Ross/Ryan Lavarnway (whichever internal option they go with)
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Post by kungfuizzy on Nov 2, 2013 17:52:56 GMT -5
I think he ends up in Texas if Cruz doesn't accept the QO. He will get Crawford money 7/142 from either them or even a dark horse like Cleveland or KC that feels like they are on the cusp. Seattle could also step up but I don't know if they are interested in building a contender based around a high priced FA.
Who I think replaces him? Victorino. Stanton will be acquired in the offseason and Drew will be brought back.
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Post by kungfuizzy on Nov 1, 2013 6:06:01 GMT -5
amfox1 edit: post deleted. Made-up trade proposals go in the trade proposal forum.
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Post by kungfuizzy on Oct 29, 2013 11:06:35 GMT -5
Kind of is relevant here but how would you guys feel about trading a good prospect like Webster for someone like Trumbo. Angels are shopping him for a young arm. Obviously that would keep Doubront in the 5th spot.
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Post by kungfuizzy on Oct 12, 2013 8:27:48 GMT -5
So out of all the guys you think won't be added to the 40 man, anyone you think will be taken by another team in the Rule 5 draft? I think the possible taken players are: Almanzar, Couch, Hernandez, Hazelbaker, Wilkerson, Huntzinger, and Haeger. I think Hazelbaker and Kurcz stand the best chance of being taken in the Rule 5. If you go down the list the normal players usually taken are 4-5th outfielders and relievers. I would prefer them protecting both guys but I could see with Hassan on the 40 man why they'd not protect Hazelbaker for the 2nd straight year. Then again...if Ellsbury leaves (likely) then it's also likely that Hassan gets a crack at being the 4th outfielder for the Sox next year. The other thing in all of this is if the Sox aren't confident that Kalish will ever be healthy again maybe they DFA him and keep Hazelbaker...
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Post by kungfuizzy on Oct 6, 2013 9:30:02 GMT -5
The Rangers, White Sox, Marlins and Giants had high level people at the workout too. LinkSox should've invited him to the intersquad scrimmage and let him face Lackey & Peavy. At least they would've seen if Jobru could handle the heat & curveball. The fact that I can only like this once is a travesty. Good job. I think Boston needs to sign him and bring back Napoli on a QO. Might be mid season before Abreu is ready and while he's 26 (could be older) you want to get him adjusted to stateside pitching and the Boston environment. This guy is not Cespedes or Puig but he's more advanced than a guy like Solar (Cubs) and 5 years older too. They're going to have to use Ellsbury's money somewhere
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Post by kungfuizzy on Oct 6, 2013 9:22:57 GMT -5
Since the Sox have catchers in the system that will be ready in 2-3 years it does limit the leverage that Salty has with the club. Different scenario than with Varitek where they had zero catching depth. Ideally Swihart comes up by 2015 and is cost controlled for 6 years and Vasquez is his backup. If Salty leaves then I think Vasquez could get a shot to start he played pretty well in the minors, is on the 40 man and by all accounts has pretty solid receiving skills. Don't break the bank on Salty.
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Post by kungfuizzy on Sept 12, 2013 7:06:27 GMT -5
If you want to make a thread about QO's then you would almost have to put Napoli on here now. As he is sure to get a deal elsewhere since he has shown that he can still hit in the 2nd half albeit very streaky. I would tender an offer to all three. It really can't hurt and the worst case scenario is that you get all three back on expensive one year deals. Napoli's salary would be roughly the same at 13 million FWIW. Drew will get a multi year deal, most likely from the Cardinals A's or Yankees. He won't be accepting the QO and the lack of depth around baseball up the middle shows that this provides zero risk. Ellsbury is a no brainer. I would prefer that the Sox only bring back Napoli out of the three but I could live with Carp as my 1st baseman. Might not be the sexiest names but neither are guys like Gomes and Nava who have helped this team out tremendously. Also as an added bonus if you let Ellsbury and Drew walk you not only get the picks but you clear the deck for future pursuits such as David Price.
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Post by kungfuizzy on Sept 11, 2013 10:19:17 GMT -5
Ellsbury's broken foot actually is a break for the Sox. Bradley gets an extended audition in CF that will give the Sox some idea of what he might be like next year. That should have a material impact on what the Sox are willing to offer Ellsbury. I don't really think this has an impact on Ellsbury staying. Ellsbury is gone to the highest bidder and will get the 2nd biggest contract in the off season, probably close to Matt Kemp money. You hope that Bradley will handle himself well and become 80% of the player Ellsbury is currently over the next few seasons. How this plays into things with Boegarts though I don't really have much of a clue. They're going to have money to play with again since Drew (9) Ellsbury (11) will both be jettisoned. I would assume that it's 50/50 Napoli and Salty return. Napoli might actually receive a QO if he finishes the year strong. If the Sox don't feel that Bradley is the answer they could just go after Granderson and shift Victorino
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Post by kungfuizzy on Sept 1, 2013 17:24:07 GMT -5
McDonald is a Jose Iglesias replacement at minimal cost. If Boston can build a big enough lead then he's going to be playing a lot on the left side of the infield to give players a breather. Not to mention he's going to make an excellent defensive replacement in the late innings. Not terrible on the bases either. Can't hurt honestly You mean he's a .300 hitter? I mean he is what in reality Iglesias truly is. He's a .230-.240 hitter who can provide awesome defense. Iglesias is not a true .300 hitter
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Post by kungfuizzy on Sept 1, 2013 1:59:03 GMT -5
Injury depth and a little late inning help at 2nd, giving Pedroia a blow. It looks like he could use some rest and from looking at the standings we might be able to give some to him. McDonald is a Jose Iglesias replacement at minimal cost. If Boston can build a big enough lead then he's going to be playing a lot on the left side of the infield to give players a breather. Not to mention he's going to make an excellent defensive replacement in the late innings. Not terrible on the bases either. Can't hurt honestly
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Post by kungfuizzy on Aug 24, 2013 13:20:08 GMT -5
Xander Boegarts...most pointless promotion this year. Drew hits under .200 against lefties and Boston has since played now 3 lefties since he's been called up.
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Post by kungfuizzy on Aug 21, 2013 12:07:51 GMT -5
Against a lefty? Just on a fan level, that's really disappointing. Zito seems like the perfect kind of pitcher for Bogaerts to get some swings at. Isn't Drew hitting something like .190-.200 against lefties? Somehow in some universe this makes perfect sense...Then again it is Zito who has been destroyed in large this year. Which of course means he's going 7 strong with 10ks today.
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Post by kungfuizzy on Aug 19, 2013 6:48:35 GMT -5
Buster in the pre game last night said they were worried about Drews workload. I'm guessing he plays SS vs most LHs and splits time at 3B with WMBs playing 1B too. Watching Drew for a while, IMO he's best served as a guy who plays 4 times a week. He's just not very durable so this helps for two reasons. 1) Injury insurance for Drew 2) Keeps the sox from overpaying for Morneau if Napoli is really dealing with a foot issue that can linger by moving WMB to 1st. If Boegarts can pull a Machado then the Sox are in great shape for a deep playoff run all recent hiccups considered.
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Post by kungfuizzy on Aug 19, 2013 5:52:41 GMT -5
Time for WMB to take some grounders at 1st.
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Post by kungfuizzy on Aug 18, 2013 12:08:25 GMT -5
I would like to keep Lackey. The contract is very good the rest of the way and even if he takes a small step back he is still pitching for the minimum on the final year. I think the two obvious candidates to go are Dempster and Doubront. With Doubront being dangled for Stanton or a young 1B. I could see the Marlins being interested in a package headlined by Doubront JBJ and others.
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Post by kungfuizzy on Aug 15, 2013 8:27:13 GMT -5
Scott Boras had a good relationship with the Sox at one point. Him and Theo did a lot of business together. Anyone who does sign with Boras is looking for the biggest pay day possible above all else. All things considered when looking at the three key criteria when determining whether or not to sign a free agent. These in my opinion would be Age, Durability, and Organizational depth. Ellsbury's age is fine for a 4 year deal. Durability wise he has suffered some freak injuries but he tends to be a very slow healer. The Sox also have Jackie Bradley Jr ready in Pawtucket. In fact the only reason it would make sense to resign Ellsbury is if the Sox are using JBJ as the main centerpiece for Stanton.
As for Drew, there is zero risk in him accepting the QO. If he does the SS market is so bare that he could still get 9-10 million on the open market. What this means for the Sox if he accepts is that the team eats a little bit of cash and gets a pretty good prospect in the deal. Braves had an issue with Rafael Soriano a few years back in which this strategy played a part in extending arbitration.
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Post by kungfuizzy on Aug 12, 2013 22:33:25 GMT -5
They should probably just call it Vertebral and do away with the perplexing homonym In medical terms there's a difference between your cervical spine and your thoracic spine. Interestingly though, the cervical spine is not near the cervix. Go figure. Also: Kalish is done. I think I've said that the last few seasons. I remember I was thrilled when they drafted him. Now I think he's a shoe in to be DFA'ed in November when the Sox need to set the roster for the rule 5. Talented player but just couldn't stay healthy. I'm sure he'll catch on somewhere else though. Maybe even stay in the system.
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Post by kungfuizzy on Aug 12, 2013 22:30:58 GMT -5
Puig is going to fizzle out... Strikes out way too much to have sustained top notch success. Remember when the Sox exposed Soriano in the playoffs? Expect that to happen to Puig. Puig's K rate is 23.6%. That's 69th of 293 batters (200+ PAs), so it's not like it's crazy-high. He also walks 8.9% of the time, which is about average. He also doesn't appear to have an obvious hole where he swings and misses at every single curveball to the point where you wonder why anyone ever throws him anything other than a curveball, the way Soriano did. I mean sure, he's not going to maintain a .475 BABIP. But resetting his numbers with a .335 BABIP gives him a .288/.364/.511 line. That's pretty sweet from a 22-year-old. Agreed. Lets say the Puig is really 24...for a guy that young that's still a hell of a season. His approach isn't bad and when you look at the recent guys from Cuba guys like Morales Puig and Cespedes....the Sox would kill to get any of those guys here. Abreu is worth a shot. MAG might be a better bet (if Phillies fall through) only because the pitchers seem to have less of a risk involved with them. Either way I think we've seen enough of a sample size to determine that this isn't as much of a gamble as say signing a guy to 120 million through his age 37 season.
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Post by kungfuizzy on Aug 8, 2013 13:19:32 GMT -5
Save the money, keep the prospects. Brentz needs to be given a shot to win the right field job. He is a right handed power hitter, young cost controlled. Above average arm. If he hits 260/310/480 with 130 strikeouts but with 25-30 homers and 80-100 rbis that would be a serious upgrade. So he's a poor man's Wil Myers? Brentz may actually have a good season or two in the majors but I don't think he's the answer. I know that Ellsbury will be asking for Crawford money by all accounts and the Sox won't be paying that. I'd like to see if the Sox were the team that claimed Rios but I think it was the Pirates. He would be a good player in LF that would complement Bradley and Victorino. Provided of course it's just another salary dump.
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Post by kungfuizzy on Aug 7, 2013 15:53:30 GMT -5
After we missed out on him reports came out that Boston were the "runner ups" in the MAG sweepstakes and that Ben & Co. viewed him as a long-term asset instead of someone who would help this year. Who says Boston can't sweep in and grab him at a lower price now. Cherington is a boss if he can do this.
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