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Post by tonyc on Jan 1, 2017 22:51:41 GMT -5
I read John Tomase's article on why he won't elect Tim Raines. I previously liked some of his opinions, but not here. He discounted defense as a factor- at which Raines excelled and really went downhill in mentioning how he went along with voting for Blyleven and still regrets that. Blyleven had about 60 shutouts and I followed him his whole career- better than a number of hall of farmers, was not well supported in runs or bullpen. It's notable that he wasn't the same pitcher, but had some high winning percentages when he went to Pittsburgh later in his career. Hell, had he pitched for some of those great Yankee teams in the past with run support, he may have been about the best pitcher in their entire history.
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Post by tonyc on Dec 28, 2016 14:08:58 GMT -5
Sox Jim and Fisher, thanks for the comments which make me feel better. I'm still in sympathy with the posters looking at the overall talent gone- and the potential we had for cost effective replacements enabling resigning more of our players. They're largely leaving at the same time now, with a new CBA with real teeth making retention more difficult. However, the domino effect of pitchers wearing out,particularly in post season, is a factor I've long been aware of, and not reflected in WAR. Without Peavy saving our exhausted staff and postitioning us one game ahead in the playoff structure, causing Detroit and Oakland to exhaust each other and then Detroit to face us without the best starter alignment, there is no 2013 WS win- irrespective of the good then poor performance he provided as the playoffs progressed. I have vivid memories of the importance of an ace in WS back to Tom Seaver besting one of the greatest teams ever in 69- or Orel Hershisher carrying a very weak team on his back in '88 (or Christy Mathewson going way back).
While I"m still heartbroken that Kopech and Espinoza are gone, thanks Fisher for the comforting link to Dombroski's long-term prowess..you're right, it's ludicrous to complain about what IS- we have no choice in life, and hopefully he'll do well in years 4 and beyond. And in Alex Speir's (or Leonard Nimoy's) lexicon it's all "fascinating."
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Post by tonyc on Dec 21, 2016 16:08:59 GMT -5
Will always be grateful to him for game 4 2013 WS, which I regard as the key turnaround game. The sox had just lost that devastating game 3 due to interference on Middlebrooks against a strong club. Buccholtz was clearly hurt, threw no pitches 90mph, but mixed and matched pitches, ala Curt Schilling's bloody sock game (which received much more notoriety) until the bullpen and bats took over. Thanks Clay
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Post by tonyc on Dec 7, 2016 11:22:54 GMT -5
Thanks again for the astute comments here, and Tomase for a framing of this trade- by itself ok, but the overall/long term approach not so. Also thanks to those who point out DD's mo not to trade a starter for future assets. It seems a skilled GM must have both types of ability. Even Brian Cashman over not just this winter but the last season showed some scrounging, and futuring skills- some of his best work. Our prior three GM's were able to use both sides of the coin- witness how few times all three got burned when trading prospects. And now Cherington may look even better with so many assets used/displayed and potentiallly both his faus pas- Hanley and (Panda?) showing some value. Regarding the derogatory Bruins comments, they are now super saturated with prospects ( with Sweeney of course undergoing a journalist/fan hazing in the process) as we previously were.
DD will fill the New England media/fan short term crazed appetite here- just out of pain I may read a bit less often in this site. I guess it's now our nations culture given that a month ago we ignored warnings from 98 out of 100 political correpsondants and 50 security experts from 3 administrations, instead making a critical choice based on social media and reality tv.
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Post by tonyc on Dec 6, 2016 23:09:07 GMT -5
Like Thornburg, but the Sox did again give up depth. A key question is, assuming they lose Bogaerts to free agency, as it perhaps appears may occur, would Dubon potentially project as just a second baseman, or as a starter at shortstop?
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Post by tonyc on Oct 5, 2016 12:05:02 GMT -5
While being heartbroken when this deal went down, rescinding it was not an option. Aside from the wins Pomeranz provided, there is a value that even Eric would be hard pressed to clearly define- how much performance enhancement and injury prevention does a mediocre starter (Pomeranz) provide by subtracting innings from an exhausted bullpen vs. an inferior alternative (Owens)? I submit that there is some probability that the pen would have been worse not just during the season, but going forward in the postseason without those saved innings. Additionally Pomeranz will play a dual role of lefty reliever/backup starter this year and have value the next two years during a lack of market available starters (therefore perhaps saving further prospect losses this year), and during which our prime players are under cost control. After that he might either be resigned, or provide some trade value. I"m still not necessarily for this trade, but there was and will be value.
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Post by tonyc on Sept 11, 2016 11:39:39 GMT -5
To me it IS the best site..as I wonder through Colorado, and occasionally the Airports often seeing Sox caps I'll engage in conversation and in the vast majority of cases they weren't aware of this site, but I rave about it and they say they'll check it out. This site is like booze, of which I don't partake- during good times the joy increases sharing it, and during heartbreaking trades or team news sage advice and group catharsis helps.
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Post by tonyc on Sept 11, 2016 11:25:53 GMT -5
In the spirit of "there's a silver lining to everything", maybe now we'll be able to afford to sign him this offseason.
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Post by tonyc on Sept 7, 2016 11:14:59 GMT -5
Something I've long thought about, and your post better articulated it than anywhere I've seen! Consider Kevin Youkilis, not an "athlete" yet with the hand eye to become a fine player. The analogy of playing an instrument is excellent. I've long played the guitar and noticed that there are certain players who progressed so much quicker and became fine lead guitarists.. A rare one even internalized the instrument so that he could play anything he heard instantly. The fine motor skills required in baseball also enable people of closer to average size to excel, as opposed the other major sports.
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Post by tonyc on Sept 5, 2016 12:06:51 GMT -5
Telson nice breakdown of some of the neurological factors in hitting. I tend to more heavily weight the genetic factors than the environmental ones personally, but as you well know in that age old debate it's quite tricky. I recall Jeff Burroughs, for whom the Redsox nearly traded early in his career. As an infant a physician noted the remarkable coordination and stated he was going to probably become a professional athlete, most likely a baseball player. No doubt there is constant refinement and adjustment at all levels afterward. If I myself had worked like crazy, I doubt I would have had a shot at even a minor league career. Pitching, I feel is more of a skill weighting mechanics more heavily than natural ability.
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Post by tonyc on Sept 5, 2016 11:37:40 GMT -5
I think there were some big payoffs involved to get him out of the country
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Post by tonyc on Sept 4, 2016 11:07:39 GMT -5
Let's hope he's not another Jack Baker- (anyone here remember him ?) big strong righty first baseman in A ball with Jim Rice, great numbers but got exposed at the highest level. One thing has me enthused that he's got a shot- Ian pushed hard to have him placed higher in the rankings- and that's on the basis of his not yet public scouting.
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Post by tonyc on Sept 3, 2016 16:49:33 GMT -5
I pretty much agree Matt with just a caveat or two. Granted, Buccholtz may not be as effective as say Hembree (unless he reverts to effective self) but with just four starters and Kelly no longer stretched out, what if a starter has an issue? Also there's nobody to eat up innings in long relief, other than maybe Kelly- you'll recall how valuable in 2004 it was that Wakefield soaked up innings against the Yankees in a blowout and saved the staff. Lastly, Eric, I agree, however given Farell's faus pas with the pen it may be valuable to give him enough choices so that he can relegate Abad and Ziegler to matchup duty- where they're quite effective, unlike what he's done lately- maybe more so than Hill (would Hill vs. lefties be that much better than Holt at third?)
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Post by tonyc on Sept 3, 2016 14:22:27 GMT -5
I know, way premature. However given the new call ups it's interesting to ruminate on- and that's what we do here. Hitters-13 Leon, Ramirez, Pedroia, Bogaerts, Moncada, Benintendi, Bradley, Betts, Papi Backups- C.Vasquez, Shaw, Holt, Young Rationale- Hill while offering a Rh bat to spell Moncada has been crap and there's others, lefties who can do so-Shaw and Holt, and Young is a righthand PH. Also, it was either Hill or a key pitcher such as Barnes who would have more value given the bullpen issues
Pitchers-12 Price, Porcello, Pomeranz, Wright pen- Kimbrell, Koji, Ziegler, Abad, Kelly, Bucholtz, Ross, Barnes
Rationale- Four starters, and this will be dependant partially on who shows better down the stretch in Wright vs. E.Rodriguez. For the season Wright was more reliable, and can eat innings better. Bucholtz would have to be there in case a starter has an issue, and can also flip to the bullpen and eat innings in long relief and has playoff experience. This presupposes Koji is effective and Tazawa is not down the stretch. Also that Kelly is Hembree isn't and Abad outshines Robby Scott as a loogy.
Thoughts?
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Post by tonyc on Aug 25, 2016 17:42:19 GMT -5
As enthusiastic as I am about Kopech (I began this thread) I'm desperate for them not to bring him up now- aside from the innings buildup and psychology of a starter requiring reinforcement, he must reinforce the lessons he's learning just in recent starts about feel and usage of his secondary stuff. Deepjohn I share your enthusiasm and am grateful for these links and they reinforce that his abilities in cutter/change slider are very recently undergoing change. Being kept in Salem and then AFL will enable him to reinforce and refine this process, wheras dealing prematurely with Boston in a pressure situation would involve a regression of staying with more fastballs. I find Moncada a far more refined/reinforced prospect who must get some at bats against lefties but may be ready. Also, the presence of Kelly, and perhaps Koji and Buccholtz may alleviate the stresses on the pen.
It would be interesting to know the inner 'sox conversations about the potential of Kopech vs. Espinoza prior to the trade. I suspect that with DD's leanings, he would've been hard pressed to unload Kopech,who also may not have had A.E's value at the time. Prior to this start I wondered about a Kopech vs. Epinoza thread, though maybe the Groome vs. Kopech conversation brought up here may be more interesting. Two things amongst many others stand out about Kopech to me- the amazing gains in physicality enabling increased sitting velocity deep into games, and his great coachablility which has already enabled great improvement in deliveries and secondaries- and imply further improvements may continue. Wow, this is fun!
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Post by tonyc on Aug 14, 2016 17:54:49 GMT -5
Sadly I agree.
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Post by tonyc on Aug 14, 2016 16:17:16 GMT -5
My rescinding the deal fantasy of course centers around the sox having another meeting, say after Pomeranz blows another start, and doing an about face on seeking compensation from SanDiego due to lack of medical disclosure.
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Post by tonyc on Aug 14, 2016 15:58:18 GMT -5
As tantalizing as it is to imagine him pulling a K-rod and leading them into a post season charge at a similar age, his lack of innings are just one factor. Intrinsic in that has been a lack of opportunity to polish off his secondaries, though they have improved. With just him and Groome as high level starting prospects, let's make sure to get this one right.
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Post by tonyc on Aug 14, 2016 10:35:12 GMT -5
Given my sometimes obsessive nature, I still have fantasies of the Redsox getting the best of both worlds- several Pomeranz starts, watching Rodriguez stabilize, and clay and Johnson, Elias and Owens do so a bit- and now rescind the trade. I guess that's a no go because of the relationships with not just SD, but everyone else, and also their belief that Pomeranz will do better the next few years and be helpful now.
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Post by tonyc on Aug 11, 2016 10:13:06 GMT -5
Dream scenario (more likely to turn into nightmare) Buccholtz kills it and DD rescinds the deal and gets Neo back.
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Post by tonyc on Aug 3, 2016 9:50:16 GMT -5
This thread is a bit of a drag given a wonderful performance. I don't like sarcasm comparing him to Bard..perhaps we need to sometimes put brakes on but on the one hand Wittman has pointed out delivery and secondary progress that Kopech needs to make, but look at the context- he's only 20, was out a lot of time so poorer performance might have been expected. He's rebuilt his body, Improved mechanics, and went from no change up to adding one in a short time, and increased sitting velocity. Given his coachablility he just might continue to improve on all counts here. There was some deception mentioned here too. Also, the very thing that is somewhat concerning about David Price, that with a small regression in velocity and stuff his command must be very precise works the opposite with Kopech- his fastball is so explosive that similar to Goose Gossage, granted a reliever, he just may be able to get away with passable as opposed to stellar seconardies and command. Just as importantly as the promise he's showing is the fact that he just might get a start or two at Double A and even in Dombrowski's eyes (and I don't entirely trust DD's statements- who knows how close he was to trading more prospects) may move over that border from asset to keeper. It may still be a year premature, but I love the line of father Mulcahee in MASH in celebrating what was thought to be a permanent ceasefire: "let the secular festivities begin."
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Post by tonyc on Aug 2, 2016 19:19:46 GMT -5
With Neo traded and another eye opening game tonight by Kopech has he earned a nickname yet? How does The Kopech-Rocket sound? Decades ago in NY in the Village Voice, there was an ad for women's vibrators- "The Pocket Rocket"- We've sent more women to the moon than NASA."
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Post by tonyc on Aug 2, 2016 12:33:20 GMT -5
I too appreciate Deepjohn's last data. It would be interesting to have inside info on whether the sox prefer Kopech long term to Espinoza. While Kopech did not have enough sample size or high enough ratings yet to fetch what Espinoza did, his physique, coachablility and raw stuff are impressive. I recall Nolan Ryan in those early years; enormous amounts of pitches and walks. My friends and I all thought he'd be burnt out quickly but didnt' get that he generated the torque through his lower body. An incredible stat- at one point I believe, with a lead after 7 innings he was 102 and 2 !
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Post by tonyc on Aug 1, 2016 19:21:32 GMT -5
All in all pretty pleased right now. A good lefty bullpen piece without a large price to accompany Ziegler to somewhat make up for the loss of Carson Smith and Koji, with Kimbrel back, Kelly in the minors hopefully adding breaking pitchers to the fastball and Henbree there. Also, suddenly better spot starter depth than just a few days ago between improvements in Buccholtz, Johnson, and Owens. And in left field Young eventually on the way and perhaps Benintendi. Price looked better and so possibilities this year, and Dombrowski ended up either hopefully showing some restraint in keeping our big 5 in tact (for now). Or of some concern, would've dealt more but didn't get the right deal in Sale, Lucroy and Beltran. I just hope all 5 show progress and some advancement and make themselves less tradeable with what they do the rest of the year. Just some concern over the MFY finally wising up, as I'd mentioned in a previous post, their reentry into the better teams in several years does represent a window which in a sense justifies a Pomeranz move. Ironically would their current move toward saving prospects put some pressure on DD to consider keeping his own going forward to compete with them longer term?
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Post by tonyc on Aug 1, 2016 10:37:17 GMT -5
This is getting to be like Lou Gorman again when rumors flew of a washed up Sid Fernandez for a young Mo Vaughn. Dombroski is not quite as idiotic, but anyone pining for Ben again?
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