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Post by PedroKsBambino on Feb 7, 2018 13:37:13 GMT -5
Brentz can be a useful player but he's not that good. Geez, the minor leagues have been littered with guys who are 28ish years old coming off big seasons. All I get from last year is that Brentz can help a team off the bench. There's very little to assume that you simply slot him into a DH spot and presto you have a 35 homerun guy. He's not much of an OF so he has to DH. I doubt teams, especially with all the DH/1b/corner OF types still on the market, are going to turn to Brentz to be their DH. I mean, other than not kicking the catcher in the gonads, makes him much different from the Izzy Alcantaras of the world? I remember being more excited about Calvin Pickering (huge dude) being a viable DH way back when (and I liked Juan Diaz, too). Brentz doesn't strike me as being much different than this type of ilk. He's probably too good to be stuck in AAA, but not good enough to be a guy you'd want to run with. The point is not replacing JDM with Brentz. We have hoped for JDM since October. But he switched to Boras, asked for 7/210, reportedly might accept 6/180, and is complaining publicly that he would prefer to sign elsewhere because the Red Sox reported 5/125 offer (the only legit offer on the table) isn't enough. He is waving all those red flags with gusto. Ignoring them is to set sail in gale warnings, never a smart move. Even as the red flags multiply, many on this board have been fine with an option for year 6; some with 6/150 straight up. There are good arguments on all sides. But it now seems unlikely, considering his current unhappiness, that he would accept either. This process, with the Sox being the ONLY team offering him big money, seems to have damaged his ego, and he is reacting inappropriately. The team could use his offense, but not as a $30M "me first" whiner for 6-7 years. Remember when Boras inspired Manny to complain his way out of Boston??? Brentz is not a replacement for JDM. But he is valuable as a 4th OF, backup DH and 1B and as a RHB PH (see Beni, JBJ, Marco, Lin, Holt, Devers, MM). His best assets are his power bat, strong arm, low cost, team control. He is old for AAA but remember he missed considerable development time, and prior to breaking out in AAA last year, a younger version of himself performed pretty well in the Majors. Even with JDM, he would likely improve the team in CY's role. Now the question becomes who to add to the offense instead of JDM to improve the team. Maybe a trade for a subsidized Miggy or Castellanos? Abreu? Braun? Kemp?
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Post by PedroKsBambino on Jan 30, 2018 8:13:54 GMT -5
I don't see how he's a fallback. There's several reasons a trade wouldn't work/doesn't make sense, but the main one is that the Sox don't need an outfielder. Yes, they need offense; but, acquiring Santana pushes someone to DH, which doesn't make any sense. Theoretically Santana would be the DH. He is not a good outfielder. He would probably best be served as a part time outfielder. Either way the trade scenario still doesn't add up because of what you'd have to give up, which is most likely Eduardo Rodriguez. I for one wouldn't want to get rid of Eduardo for Santana. Santana is good but not great. That isn't worth Eduardo Rodriguez. If you can't sign JDM then spending that money on Darvish and trading ERod for Santana would be a good move. Would probably be cheaper too bc I don't think Darvish will sign for a higher contract than JDM
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Post by PedroKsBambino on Jan 26, 2018 19:58:10 GMT -5
From Heyman's mlb update: Boston Red Sox Red Sox people are telling folks they aren’t budging and intend to stick to a five-year offer for J.D. Martinez. While one report of that offer being for “about $100 million” was shot down as inaccurate by agent Scott Boras, a new one by Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald suggesting it was $125 million drew no response from anyone. As has been reported here, Martinez has shown no signs of giving in, either, meaning this has the potential to become the biggest staredown/stalemate in free agent history. Boras has suggested the Red Sox need to go above and beyond because they are only offering the DH job, and Martinez prefers to play the outfield. In any case, word continues to be that Martinez is willing to wait it out.
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Post by PedroKsBambino on Jan 19, 2018 18:47:32 GMT -5
@timbritton Chairman Tom Werner: “We are in active negotiations with JD Martinez. People know that. It takes two.”
6:37 PM - Jan 19, 2018
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Post by PedroKsBambino on Jan 19, 2018 15:28:52 GMT -5
@mikesilvermanbb Source: Red Sox offer to JD Martinez believed to be roughly $125 million over five years. That's what OF Josh Hamilton got from the Angels five years ago. 3:20 PM · Jan 19, 2018
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Post by PedroKsBambino on Jan 17, 2018 22:14:50 GMT -5
From the Herald via Silverman: "And while it’s premature to assess Judgment Day with so many elite free agents still unsigned, the Red Sox’ curious state of inaction with regard to making an offer that free agent slugger J.D. Martinez or first baseman Eric Hosmer – actually, getting both to sign here remains the preferable tack – can’t say no to ranks as their most notable non-accomplishment." Looks like Sox would still like to sign both but I don't see how with Moreland back and Hanley on the roster. www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox/2018/01/silverman_red_sox_about_to_get_reminder_of_how_far_they_ve_fallen_behind_in
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Post by PedroKsBambino on Jan 9, 2018 18:55:43 GMT -5
With enough good free agents still out there I would think DDo is leaving his options open with many different directions the team can go. Option A would be to sign JDM to a 5 yr deal. If he signs elsewhere, then option B should be to spend that money and sign a couple guys. Something like Cobb/Darvish and Reed/Watson. That would help the team by upgrading the rotation and bullpen if you can't upgrade the lineup w JDM
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Post by PedroKsBambino on Jan 5, 2018 18:42:47 GMT -5
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Post by PedroKsBambino on Dec 29, 2017 10:54:51 GMT -5
@jeffpassan Source: Wade Davis has agreed to a deal with the Colorado Rockies. 10:45 AM · Dec 29, 2017
@jonheyman wade davis deal with rockies is for $52M over 3 years 10:55 AM · Dec 29, 2017
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Post by PedroKsBambino on Dec 21, 2017 15:30:24 GMT -5
At this point I don't know who has the money and playing time for JDM besides the Red Sox, esp if he wants to play for a contending team. Giants and Ariz don't have the money, Rockies already have too many OFers, Blue Jays are in a soft rebuild, and most other teams are trying to get under the tax
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Post by PedroKsBambino on Dec 20, 2017 22:36:00 GMT -5
I'm going to say 6/132. 22 mill per yr in a depressed market with only a few teams willing to spend big and the need for an OFer/DH
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Post by PedroKsBambino on Dec 20, 2017 22:04:09 GMT -5
According to Rosenthal it's a 2 yr 16 mill deal with vesting option for a 3rd yr. Hosmer better jump on a deal soon with all these other teams filling their 1B needs.
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Post by PedroKsBambino on Dec 20, 2017 21:51:22 GMT -5
@bnightengale The Cleveland #Indians have found a first baseman: Yonder Alonso has agreed to deal with Cleveland 9:36 PM · Dec 20, 2017
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Post by PedroKsBambino on Dec 14, 2017 16:14:23 GMT -5
I know that it's hard to fathom right now but I think signing BOTH is the right thing to do. I don't think Harper or Machado will sign here next yr and Donaldson is already over 30 yrs old. Sandoval's 19 mill and Hanley's 22 mill are off the books after this year and getting Hosmer and Martinez now will give us a head start on the market for the future and still leave enough money to sign our own guys in the future.
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Post by PedroKsBambino on Dec 14, 2017 9:28:28 GMT -5
Gammons on MLB network this morning said that Hosmer is an east coast guy from FLA, best LH opposite field hitter in baseball, said a couple wks ago he spoke w him and said he'd love to be a Red Sox, would be great young leader to go with younger Sox core, waiting for Sox to decide if it's Hosmer or JD they want to commit to
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Post by PedroKsBambino on Dec 12, 2017 15:04:27 GMT -5
@bnightengale Marquee free agent JD Martinez is scheduled to come to winter meetings to meet with at least one team, if not multiple teams, beginning tonight 2:44 PM · Dec 12, 2017
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Post by PedroKsBambino on Dec 12, 2017 13:48:23 GMT -5
Part 3A of 3 (seriously, just 3!) Eric Hosmer. Steamer projects him for 2.6 WAR in 150 games. He's been averaging 159 games the last few years, but 150 is a much better figure. Give him a day off on the road against the 50% of LHP with larger platoon splits, and that's 162 * 1/2 * 1/3 * 1/2 = 13.5 games, so that's 148 starts. (The actual days off vs. LHP on the road would be determined by a deeper analysis and might be a few more or less games.) He's going to pinch hit on some of those days off, too. I think ZiPS is going to project him for less. The lowest you can credibly go is the 2.35 per 150 G he's averaged the last two years (it turns out that his home / road splits, when controlled for the number of games he was hot or cold, were completely normal). Let's run with that and see what his salary floor in a neutral market and ballpark would be. I argued earlier that his bad defensive metrics are partly the result of playing for a team that has the worst defensive positioning in baseball. That's why he looks better than his numbers. Playing for a team that will position him properly gets him to 2.6 or 2.7 WAR, which is $21.0 - $21.5M. He'd have considerable extra value to us, playing in a ballpark ideally suited to his opposite-field approach. I think it's a huge amount of value, but you really don't even need to try to estimate it. The market for bats has been so weak recently that no one thinks Hosmer ought to get a $21M AAV. Dave Cameron thinks he'll get it anyway, while the FanGraphs crowdsource estimate was $19M. Furthermore, the 1B market is so weak this year that the Royals are the only other team that would be credibly interested. Hosmer's been a clubhouse leader for a WS winner and had great clutch splits (whose value we're not even including, and it's $0.5M at a minimum), so it seems likely that he wants to play for a contender. The Royals are projected by Steamer to have the third worst roster in baseball. If you believe that the Padres are stupid enough to sign Hosmer and move Wil Myers back to the OF instead of simply signing one of the many good FA OFers, well, the Padres have the second-worst roster. It's also a terrible park for hitters. He may be comfortable in KC, but the other two non-monetary factors for a FA, fit to team and ballpark, and playing for a contender, are off the scale compared to the competition. The Royals only want him back on the cheap, because they're prepared to tank and rebuild. I just don't see a universe where the Boston Red Sox overpay for Hosmer. In the 1B thread I posted some startling numbers about his GB tendencies. He doesn't actually need to change his swing at all -- he simply needs to spend more games with the swing that has a 50.0 GB% (which is still worse than 5 out of 6 hitters) and less with the messed-up swing that has a 67.0%. The last two seasons he spent just 57% of his time with the proper swing and slashed .337 / .411 / .562. With the bad swing, .235 / .290 / .342. What I would do (what any team would do, except apparently the Royals, who fired a bunch of hitting coaches in his time there) is look at all the video of his good stretches, understand the way that swing works, and then look at the bad stretches and see what's wrong. And then I try to make a slight adjustment that amounts to a muscle-memory mnemonic -- a reminder to his body and brain to start his swing right. (This is equivalent to adding a toe-tap to nail down a hitter's correct timing). That everyone else thinks he'll be the big disaster contract makes me want him all the more. He has to want to come here, and $21M AAV is not an insult. You might well get him for less. And I think he's a Monster here, pun intended. If Hosmer is your only major addition, what else do you do?
Well, Hanley is your DH, and you need a backup plan that's above replacement level. So you sign Matt Adams as a bat bench. He'll cost almost nothing. He's been a tremendous pinch-hitter (897 OPS in 155 PA) and he provides insurance against a Hosmer injury, too. I think this is a much better use of the last roster spot than the two alternatives, which are: 1) Keep both Swihart and Leon until you figure out which guy you're trading. 2) Keep Deven Marrero to platoon with Hernandez until Pedroia comes back and he becomes almost useless, and then figure out who should be on the roster instead. You're talking maybe a dozen or 15 starts where Hernandez (whose splits aren't bad) starts against LHP. That doesn't add up to that much. Having Adams all year to DH instead of Hanley versus the RHP who struggle against LHB will amount to more games and a much bigger effect. And if Hanley gets hurt (did I really just say "if"?), he's likely a big upgrade over Brentz versus most RHP. After reading the analysis from Ericvan I'm coming around to signing Hosmer over JDM. While Martinez has been the better power hitter, he is also 2 years older and offers nothing in the field. Hosmer has also been more durable and seems to offer better leadership that this team badly needs. I hope that the Sox are targeting him and can get him at a reasonable rate with all of the 1B options on the market. Would hate to see him go to a team like San Diego instead for a few extra dollars
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Post by PedroKsBambino on Dec 11, 2017 9:46:37 GMT -5
I will have to see the end result if JBJ is traded for a HR hitter like Schwarber or Abreu. He brings so much value on the bases and on defense that the return would have to be pretty good to justify trading him IMO
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Post by PedroKsBambino on Dec 11, 2017 9:41:06 GMT -5
Bob Nightengale @bnightengale The Boston #RedSox have let several teams know that CF Jackie Bradley is available in their pursuit of a power bat. #Cubs
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Post by PedroKsBambino on Dec 7, 2015 14:12:52 GMT -5
2m2 minutes ago Ken Rosenthal @ken_Rosenthal Source: #Mariners making progress on trade for #RedSox’s Miley.
I wonder who Sox could get back with the price of pitching so high. I would like someone like Paxton and a RP. Maybe Carson Smith?
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Post by PedroKsBambino on Dec 5, 2015 0:59:12 GMT -5
From the Boston Herald: "Conversations with Price’s agent stopped during Thanksgiving, then picked up again immediately afterward. The Red Sox weren’t thrilled about giving Price the ability to opt-out after three years, but if the opt-out is a separator and that’s what the pitcher wanted, the club was willing to provide it."
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Post by PedroKsBambino on Dec 4, 2015 22:35:08 GMT -5
With 60 million deferred in the Greinke deal, the value is actually 190, 27 mill less than Price. I still think that if the Sox are a good team in 3 years with good young talent coming up and a good future outlook, Price will opt in and stay with them for 32 million per year with no deferments. That is the only part I dislike about the deal is the opt out. By 2018 an ace starter may cost 35 mill per year but it will be interesting to see if Price opts out as a 34 year old.
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Post by PedroKsBambino on Dec 2, 2015 16:23:50 GMT -5
13 minutes ago Red Sox Stats @redsoxstats JDMartinez tells MLBNR that this spring running joke w Price was going to BOS, "He would love to play there, didn't think they would offer." More Martinez "Texting Price, he is really happy... talking to Rusney today I told him he is the best, the best teammate."
Teammate JD Martinez said they joked with Price that he would sign with the Sox when he became a free agent because he loves the city and the intensity on the big stage. Glad to hear he wanted to come to Boston.
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Post by PedroKsBambino on Dec 2, 2015 15:59:01 GMT -5
I know salaries will only go up in the next 3 years but I think that 4/127 for Price's age 33-37 seasons is still going to be the top salary of an ace at that time. He is known as a great teammate everywhere he has been and I can definitely see a scenario where he loves being on the Sox and decides to not exercise the opt out. At the time of the opt out many other good starters will also be hitting free agency like Harvey, Kershaw and others. If he does opt out then the Sox will free up that 30 million to spend on someone else. I think the opt out is good for both sides
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Post by PedroKsBambino on Nov 30, 2015 18:53:42 GMT -5
Update on the signing: 18m18 minutes ago Jon Heyman @jonheymancbs chris young deal with red sox is for 2 years @ken_Rosenthal was 1st with deal
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