SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Recent Posts
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 23, 2024 13:03:17 GMT -5
I think the 19 million dollar man gets first crack. Fitts, Priester, and I assume Criswell get their chances when injuries inevitably happen. Do we even know if Giolito will be healthy enough to start in the rotation at the beginning of the season? He had the internal brace procedure, not Tommy John, so it's possible. Nothing is ever certain but it's not like he had full TJ, which would have put him more in the middle of next year realistically.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 23, 2024 12:41:36 GMT -5
I mean, it's Herm Edwards here, right?
On a micro level, I want Casas to go off and get his confidence back to close the year, Crawford to have a couple good starts, etc.
It's one thing if you're talking about picking 3rd versus 20th. 8th vs 13th? Meh. Do I want 6-0 to close the season? No but they're not gonna do that.
It is interesting they still could be anywhere from 8th to 16th pre-lottery.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 23, 2024 11:21:48 GMT -5
I assume that's the last we have seen of both BobbyD and K Jensen, right? both gave us some high's, but the team can and will do better Dalbec will be a minor league free agent. Presumably he'll try to catch on elsewhere
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 23, 2024 11:01:45 GMT -5
Since we're now 12th and 10 & 11 are automatics, getting past 1 club gains 3 spots. Go Giants. clicking on the strength of schedule tab in the tankathon is less optimistic. Sox have the 21st toughest schedule. Remember though, SOS is always relative this time of year. I'd rather be playing a team that clinched than a team fighting for a playoff spot. Doesn't really help the Red Sox but Arizona is trying to get some distance from the Braves, so they'll give the Giants everything they've got.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 23, 2024 10:59:23 GMT -5
Tanking is super overrated in the NFL because of the salary curve of draft picks. #1 gets twice as much as #10 and if you're not taking a QB then you'd rather just have the cheaper player: I respectfully disagree here because if you're tanking, you probably need a QB and even if you somehow don't, you can move the pick to some team that will inevitably get stupid. The only way tanking (assuming the team is bad enough) would be detrimental is if it's a particularly weak QB class. To tie this back together, you always want a higher pick in the NFL because you can move it for the surplus value you might otherwise waste... which is why tanking in *MLB* isn't as big of a deal. The best benefit from picking sooner is having more bonus money, because players always fall for weird reasons (see Teel, Kyle). This is another reason why they really ought to let teams trade picks.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 22, 2024 19:27:16 GMT -5
Thoughts from HFStival yesterday at Nats Park Lit - surprisingly (to me) sounded great. 5 songs including 4 off A Place in the Sun. They knew their role. Filter - sounded fine. Did 4 songs. If you know Filter at all you can guess the 4. Exactly what I wanted from them. Tonic - I'd seen them a couple years back and like that time they also sounded very good. Great start. Violent Femmes - I'm not a huge Violent Femmes guy but they were solid. Brought some much needed weirdness to the bill. I walked away wanting to listen to some more of them which I guess is the point. Girl Talk - I had seen him before in a small amphitheater in Charlottesville. That or a club is the place for him, not a baseball stadium. Placement on the bill didn't help at all. Mid-bill 40-minute sprint was tough. I can only imagine what the folks dancing in the pit felt like. Jimmy Eat World - one of the acts I was pumped to see for the first time and they were great. Great set list, great energy. Unfortunately, the first of a few acts that had major technical issues as his vocals cut out between songs, leading to an awkward 3-5 minute scramble to get the mic going. Liz Phair - So this was originally Garbage but they had to cancel to my great chagrin. I'm not a huge Liz Phair guy. She was... fine? Her vocals were completely lost in the mix which didn't help. Seemed a better fit for a different venue. Bush - So they were one of my favorite bands growing up. Sixteen Stone was huge for me. I was very scared, but I shouldn't have been. Tremendous energy for a stadium show. Gavin Rossdale plays live he's 30 years younger, it's kind of impressive. Unfortunately, more MAJOR mic issues leading to another long pause, but again, very luckily between songs. Would've liked one or two fewer new songs but what can you do. Incubus - Third time I've seen them and second in the last few years. They're absolutely awesome live and we're again here. Would you believe they had microphone problems? New bassist was very good, so that was an expected relief. If anything I was disappointed they couldn't play longer. I still hate they don't play much from SCIENCE, but begrudgingly get that it doesn't fit what they do now. They always have a good cover in the setlist and Come Together was great, the later Portishead song being OK. Go see them if you have any interest at all. Death Cab for Cutie - They're playing Transatlanticism all the way through and nothing else. So they were just good. The "playing an album all the way through" thing is, to me, great for fans of a band to hear some deep cuts, but not the best way to introduce newer ones. Performance aspects were better than I thought they'd be. Solid, but tough acts to follow in Bush and Incubus (he said with this middle school self nodding approvingly). The Postal Service - also playing Give Up all the way through, which is less of an issue for a band with one album. Lol. Came away wanting to see Jenny Lewis live more than anything. Think I liked them more than Death Cab. Probably their last show ever too so that's kinda cool I guess. Overall, great day, weather mostly cooperated. Tech issues could've gone way worse. Setlists for those into that kind of thing: www.setlist.fm/festival/2024/hfstival-2024-13d5b125.html
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 22, 2024 11:52:50 GMT -5
I would add, regarding RickA's fun question, that we're in a brave new world in the minors now. Guys move MUCH faster due to dilution in the talent pool due to the loss of Short-season.
Consider that Campbell reached AAA in his first full season. Is that even on your radar when you think of him? Maybe it's there but pre-2020 been getting to AA not as a top-of-draft guy, like Anthony and Meidroth did last year btw, would've been NUTS. Benintendi did make MLB his first full season but we were all like yeah he was the 7th pick and the Golden Spikes winner.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 22, 2024 11:45:16 GMT -5
I can't think of a player who made a top 100 list for the first time in AAA. I'm sure it happens once in a blue moon but I can't think of any Sox prospects. Bobby Dalbec I think. Nice pull. He wasn't even ranked at the end of 2019. IIRC, his being ranked was in significant part due to someone at BA (Josh Norris maybe?) really liking him working out with the Premier 12 Team USA squad (which others might remember as "that time Lowell Spinner Noah Song looked better than a bunch of AAA guys in a SSS international tournament"). I remember the point made on their podcast was something like they had Andrew Vaughn ranked and Dalbec looked comparable. I also recall disagreeing with the ranking at the time. MLB didn't have him in their 2020 top 100, but both BA and MLB had him ranked entering 2021 after his monster 2020 debut. Please feel free to fact check me on the above.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 22, 2024 10:58:16 GMT -5
Teel has also been doing well hitting recently. Personally, I attribute the small downturn to the fact that he's caught a lot more innings this year than he ever has. Catching is tiresome as evidenced by Wong's second half declines. .375/.516/.542 in September He had an adjustment period for a handful of games at AAA then went back to his normal old self Yeah his good stretch is now longer than the August slump. He's fine.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 22, 2024 10:55:40 GMT -5
I'll be disappointed if Anthony isn't in the lineup. He's at 1.000 OPS. The year Teddy Ballgame hit .406, he entered the last day technically at .400. The manager offered him to sit but he played both ends of a doubleheader. Worry not. Fwiw he's at .899 combined on the year.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 21, 2024 7:53:46 GMT -5
Not sure why y'all are overthinking this. Gasper comes up if Devers goes on the IL. It'll likely be Sogard or Romy at 3B no matter who comes up.
No reason to add someone else to the 40 just to come up and sit on the bench.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 21, 2024 7:49:12 GMT -5
Fitts could make the end of year rankings very interesting. Fast yes but so wasn't Perales. The results are there, the stuff is there and the command is there. Interesting for both the national rankings and SP. I believe if he does another 5 innings and doesn't give up a run, he'd be the first in history (maybe second, not sure). These 4 MLB starts, if the next is similar, almost certainly aren't going to move him into the Top 100 from a guy who wasn't otherwise going to crack the team's top 10. He's doing well but it's not like he's gone Skenes on us here. He hasn't given up earned runs but he's given up 13 hits, 5 walks to 7 strikeouts. He's been good! He hasn't been "oh jeez this is a top 100 guy and we were all missing something" good, at least in my opinion (I'm sure I know what you think that's worth).
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 21, 2024 7:42:31 GMT -5
Jumping the gun here, but has a team ever had the #1 and #2 prospect in a top 100 ranking? I'm sure theirs been a few others but 1 I remember is buxton/Sano were 1/2. Close but not quite I think. Sano was #6 in 2014 when Buxton was #1. Xander, Oscar Taveras (RIP), Masahiro Tanaka, and Baez were between them. Damn good list year. www.thebaseballcube.com/content/prospects_mlb/2014~BA/
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 21, 2024 7:35:29 GMT -5
I count at least 7 guys who are "hurtin'". It might be outlandish to option Crawford or Bello after their last start. Or Casas. If guys are playing every day right now, I don't think they're hurt enough that shutting them down for the last 10 games or whatever is going to happen. Like I said, they might get off days, but they're not gonna just shut them down entirely, at least not a big group of them. Maybe they get Priester a start or something at the end, and maybe they call up Grissom, but I think you're way overthinking this. Looks like Devers is probably getting shut down after the loss, so that'll bring Gasper back. Garcia pushes a reliever off. My guess is that's it (was thinking Ref when talking about Grissom yesterday. Not sure why I didn't just say it.)
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 20, 2024 15:06:40 GMT -5
I count at least 7 guys who are "hurtin'". It might be outlandish to option Crawford or Bello after their last start. Or Casas. If guys are playing every day right now, I don't think they're hurt enough that shutting them down for the last 10 games or whatever is going to happen. Like I said, they might get off days, but they're not gonna just shut them down entirely, at least not a big group of them. Maybe they get Priester a start or something at the end, and maybe they call up Grissom, but I think you're way overthinking this.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 20, 2024 14:26:08 GMT -5
Have a feeling there won't be much action here, but so far, I understand Brian Van Belle will be and Mickey Gasper might be playing for Caguas in PR. Ed Hand had those first and I've confirmed.
Otherwise, looks like Diego Hernandez might at least be working out with Culiacan in Mexico.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 20, 2024 14:05:34 GMT -5
Who is getting shut down to the degree they're getting put on the IL? I could see guys getting more off days for sure, but I don't think they're going to just put like 6 guys on the IL.
They're definitely not adding people who aren't on the 40-man roster at this point, that's for sure.
Only question might be if they activate Grissom after a strong finish, but are you moving Rafaela to the bench to do that?
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 20, 2024 13:00:35 GMT -5
Literally need a sweep. Crazy thing is, if they do, they'd have the following tiebreakers 2-way ties: KCR, MIN, SEA 3-way ties: DET/KC, DET/MIN, KC/MIN, KC/SEA, MIN/SEA And they'd be second in the following if it's for 2 WC spots: 3-way: the above plus DET/SEA 4-way: DET/KC/MIN, DET/KC/SEA, KC/MIN/SEA Only ones they lose are DET straight up, DET/SEA 3-way, and they're 3rd in a DET/MIN/SEA 4-way. They're 3rd in the 5-way. How do the 3 way ties work? I believe Twins are 7-6 against Tigers for instance, we are 6-7 vs Tigers, and id we sweep we’d be 7-6 vs Minny? It's head-to-head against the other teams in the tie. So you add the record against the 2 other teams. Here's what the records look like if the Red Sox sweep: (read it left-to-right, so the Red Sox went 3-4 against Detroit, 4-2 against KC, etc.) BOS DET KCR MIN SEA BOS 3-4 4-2 4-2 4-3 DET 4-3 6-7 6-7 5-1 KCR 2-4 7-6 6-7 3-3 MIN 2-4 7-6 7-6 5-2 SEA 3-4 1-5 3-3 2-5 And here's how the tiebreakers would work for them: Boston: DET lose KCR win MIN win SEA win DET/KC 1st 7-6 DET: 10-10 KCR: 9-10 DET/MIN 1st 7-6 DET: 10-10 MIN: 9-10 DET/SEA 2nd 7-7 DET: 10-4 SEA: 4-9 KCR/MIN 1st 8-4 KCR: 8-11 MIN: 9-10 KCR/SEA 1st 8-5 KCR: 5-7 SEA: 6-7 MIN/SEA 1st 8-5 MIN: 7-6 SEA: 5-9 DET/KC/MIN 2nd 8-8 DET: 16-17 KCR: 15-17 MIN: 16-13 DET/KC/SEA 2nd 11-9 DET: 15-11 KCR: 12-13 SEA: 7-12 DET/MIN/SEA 3rd 8-9 DET: 15-11 MIN: 14-9 SEA: 6-14 KC/MIN/SEA 2nd 9-7 KCR: 11-14 MIN: 14-9 SEA: 8-12 FIVE-WAY 3rd 12-11 DET: 21-18 KCR: 18-20 MIN: 21-15 SEA: 9-17 this was all done by hand so check my math.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 20, 2024 12:18:36 GMT -5
Literally need a sweep.
Crazy thing is, if they do, they'd have the following tiebreakers
2-way ties: KCR, MIN, SEA 3-way ties: DET/KC, DET/MIN, KC/MIN, KC/SEA, MIN/SEA
And they'd be second in the following if it's for 2 WC spots:
3-way: the above plus DET/SEA 4-way: DET/KC/MIN, DET/KC/SEA, KC/MIN/SEA
Only ones they lose are DET straight up, DET/SEA 3-way, and they're 3rd in a DET/MIN/SEA 4-way.
They're 3rd in the 5-way.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 20, 2024 12:02:32 GMT -5
Interestingly, the Red Sox have the top prospect in baseball and he might not even be the top prospect in the Red Sox system. Jumping the gun here, but has a team ever had the #1 and #2 prospect in a top 100 ranking? Benintendi and Moncada were 1-2 entering 2017, so the Red Sox would have if not for the Sale trade.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 20, 2024 11:34:29 GMT -5
Not sure if this was mentioned anywhere else, but Speier said on 310 to Left with Pontes that he’s talked to a few people that think Campbell is a better prospect than Anthony As have we. There are some in the org who think he's their top prospect. But they all say it's very close.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 20, 2024 6:45:50 GMT -5
Teams are allowed to come to terms with a kid that young? Yes, and sometimes younger. It's a remarkably corrupt and flawed system. Technically no, but it isn't policed. The only solution MLB has come up with is an international draft but it needs to be collectively bargained and the players haven't accepted it yet because the main reason owners want it is to slot international bonuses.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 19, 2024 11:28:49 GMT -5
Figured I'd throw this on here. I used to use an app called Sports Passport that allowed you to input professional sports games you've been to and it'd calculate team records, player stats, etc. It was awesome and as something of a ticket stub packrat and obsessive Google Calendar user, I was able to recreate most of my sports game history. Unfortunately, Sports Passport shut down, but there's another app that popped up a couple years ago I've been using called Momento. It's a similar idea, albeit with less player stat functionality, but it does allow you to enter games yourself if they're not in the Momento database, so that's pretty sweet. I'm basically just missing some old Lowell games the scores for which I can't find online (talking late 90s - anyone have ideas on how to find those?), a bunch of the PawSox games I saw when I had a season-ticket package and stopped saving the stubs, and a bunch of college stuff. Anyway, figured I'd spread the word for any obsessives like me. www.acmomento.com/Probably not a complete history, but for what I've got in there: Teams seen most often: Boston Red Sox (30-21) Salem Red Sox (21-21) Washington Nationals (9-14) Pawtucket Red Sox (15-7) (Doesn't include WooSox, definitely missing games) Boston Celtics (8-9) Portland Sea Dogs (8-6) Lowell Spinners (6-6) (definitely missing games here, including some when I was writing for the Eagle-Tribune) Venues visited most often: Fenway Park 37x Nationals Park 22x McCoy Stadium 21x (definitely missing a bunch) Capital One Arena 17x TD Garden 13x
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 18, 2024 22:38:10 GMT -5
M's losing 1-0 out west. Twins lose in extras. Tigers beat the Royals.
Was ready to stick a fork in these guys last night. Then you get a night like tonight where the results all look good.
That said, let's not get insane here. Sox aren't making 8 games up on Baltimore. Even getting past Minnesota, Detroit and Seattle would be historic.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 18, 2024 22:34:17 GMT -5
Yohan Ramirez, of course. No, this isn't on the pitcher. That's crazy talk. Hate to say it, but looks like a pretty tough inning for Teel, with a (non-)assist from #bobstop
|
|
|