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danr
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Post by danr on Feb 22, 2017 1:07:38 GMT -5
This is a country of more than 320 million people, the third most populous country in the world. Unless Trump succeeds in stopping immigration, we will be 400 million in not too long in the future. Baseball is in no danger of fading away. The profits being made now are incredible and they only are going to get better. There is no reason to adopt this stupid idea of putting a player on 2nd in the 10th. If the game has gotten to the 10th, the fans of both teams deserve to have it played out. I don't like soccer and one of the reasons I don't is they have that shootout in case of a tie. I think baseball fans would hate this idea.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Dec 21, 2016 10:13:13 GMT -5
I'm glad that Buchholz is gone. He was a heartbreaker. He would be terrific for a short period of time and then not so much. I think many here overvalued him. It makes perfect sense to get rid of his salary. However, considering what the Sox got for him, I am not sure why they picked up his option.First of all, why does it matter? They got something for him and didn't pay a dime. Second, they picked it up because they probably weren't counting on trading for Sale and they also didn't know how much the luxury tax threshold was going to be. If the LTT went up to $210 million, they could have kept him if they wanted. It's not that puzzling and I've seen it mentioned so many times in this thread. Good points.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Dec 21, 2016 1:31:01 GMT -5
I'm glad that Buchholz is gone. He was a heartbreaker. He would be terrific for a short period of time and then not so much. I think many here overvalued him. It makes perfect sense to get rid of his salary. However, considering what the Sox got for him, I am not sure why they picked up his option.
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danr
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Post by danr on Dec 7, 2016 14:55:49 GMT -5
The position player depth chart lacks high-upside prospects, but it's not totally barren, either. I think they'll still look to add another bench piece (ideally a right-handed hitter who can spell Sandoval and Moreland versus LHP-- Trevor Plouffe? Juan Uribe? Danny Valencia?), and a bench of that guy, Holt and Young is fairly strong. In AAA, that'd give them Sam Travis at 1B/DH, Marco Hernandez in the infield, Blake Swihart at C/OF and Rusney Castillo in the outfield. The most worrisome spot looks to be the outfield. Young is going to be penciled in at DH versus LHP, so he's not really part of the OF depth chart. Holt is an OK fill-in, but his bat doesn't play as well in a corner outfield spot, which is doubly true for Swihart. I'm still a believer in Rusney Castillo being a useful fourth outfielder, but if they really want to stay below the luxury tax limit this year, they basically can't call him up for a sustained stretch of time. Long-term, outfield in the system is crazy-weak. If you count Longhi as a 1B, I don't know that I see a single major league regular in the organization at OF. It might be possible to convert either Devers or Dalbec to the OF, although a shift to 1B for one of them probably is more likely. Otherwise, I agree with you to the extent that there are a few players way down in the system, GCL and Lowell, who might develop. I would like to see Buch traded for a couple of good prospects.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Dec 6, 2016 12:05:05 GMT -5
I've been one of the bigger fans of Shaw and I believe he will be a good player for Milwaukee. He probably had the greatest opportunity he ever was going to get with the Sox this past season and he did not perform to the level necessary to be a regular in Boston. I think he is replaceable. Dubon could be a regular for Milwaukee but almost surely not one for the Sox. Pennington, as many have said, is just a lottery ticket at this point. The Sox needed another shut-down RP and they got one.
Overall, I think it is a fair deal for both sides. The Sox gave up depth to fill a critical need. Thus, the team has been improved without significant cost.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Nov 3, 2016 0:26:56 GMT -5
This was so reminiscent of 2004 and so many people who once were with the Sox. It was a great game and, by a small margin, I am happy the Cubs won. I just wish Rizzo, Lester, Lackey, Francona, Epstein, etc., still were with the Sox.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Oct 29, 2016 0:25:55 GMT -5
Shaw never has gotten a lot of respect on this board. I don't know how he is going to develop but his second half poor performance should not be taken as a predictor of his future. He has done better than expectations in his past and it may well do that in the future. I am not arguing that he will but that it is a bit too soon to throw in the towel on him.
He well could be the kind of player Billy Beane takes a flier on and before long he is a key player on that team. It has happened before a couple of times with players the Sox gave up on when they still were developing.
I don't believe there is any chance the Sox will trade him unless they sign, or trade for, a DH, 1B or 3B slugger to replace Ortiz and unless they are reasonably confident that Panda is going to perform well.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Oct 21, 2016 17:08:37 GMT -5
Because you are new - and welcome BTW - you probably don't know that sarcasm usually is put in italics. He probably is going to have quite a few more All Star appearances and people would trade him for a pitcher whose arm could fall off in a year.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Oct 21, 2016 15:20:58 GMT -5
I keep wondering why there are so many people on this board who want to trade JBJ. I read a piece about him in the NY Times a little while ago that rated him the best defensive CF in baseball and it wasn't close. It was part of a story on the technologies that have been developed to produce better defensive ratings. The author said when he watched Bradley it appeared to him that Bradley began moving before the ball was hit. I don't recall the name of the technology but it tracks the ball and the players on the field and it confirmed that JBJ, indeed, began moving towards where the ball would go before the ball was hit. If I come across the story again, I will post a link to it.
Bradley has his ups and downs as a hitter, but overall, he had a great season and he is just getting started. He is on my "no trade, no way" list.
Unless the Sox sign a thumper DH, or trade for Cabrera, I think Shaw should be the 1B while they find out if Panda can play and hit. I think it is a bit much to expect that Sam Travis will be ready.
I think the hardest thing to improve with the Sox is the bullpen. That is because you never know what you are going to get. One year the guy is great, the next year he isn't, then he is meh, and then, suddenly he is great again, or just goes to pieces, but maybe not in that order. I am not hot to trade much talent for RPs at this point.
In fact, I am not hot to do much in the way of trades this off season. This is fundamentally a very good team that could be considerably better without major changes. There still is a great deal of talent coming through the system. Some players may accelerate. I think minor tinkering and a couple RP FA signings might be a good approach until we see what the team is like next spring.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Oct 11, 2016 6:06:36 GMT -5
Cubs-Indians would be awesome with Francona managing against Epstein's team. I favor the Indians because I like Francona, who got shafted by the Sox.
I have a grudge against the Cubs because of what happened to me once at their stadium. My late wife and i were in Chicago to help our daughter find a place to live while she attended the Art Institute of Chicago. The Cubs were out of town and their parking lot was totally empty. We parked there to look at an apartment nearby. We weren't gone for more than 15 minutes. When we came back our rental car was gone. it had been towed away. We found out that people were paid to report cars parked in the lot to a towing service. It cost us something over $200 to get the car.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Oct 10, 2016 21:56:59 GMT -5
This was an enjoyable season. sometimes frustrating but other times very exciting. One of the things that makes this team different from other teams that made the post season in the recent past is that its best days are ahead. All these young players are going to get better. I think we have several really good years ahead of us.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Oct 2, 2016 0:08:47 GMT -5
We are going to miss this guy even more than we can imagine. I have been a Sox fan since Williams was the left fielder and only Ortiz and Pedro were in the same class of superhero players. But he has surpassed Williams and ranks with Pedro as the greatest inspirational player the Sox ever have had.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Oct 2, 2016 0:02:41 GMT -5
I was among those who liked the Kimbrel trade but right now I am regretting that. There simply is no excuse for what happened tonight. Maybe there is a mechanical issue that can be solved quickly but if there is not, and if he pitches like this in the post season, the Sox will be out of it early. If that happens because of him I hope he gets traded to a bad team.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Sept 29, 2016 1:05:30 GMT -5
Well let's just enjoy the fact the Sox won the division. Being s Red Sox fan is not for the meek.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Sept 22, 2016 12:01:25 GMT -5
It is interesting to look at the run differentials in both leagues. Only in the AL west is the order run differential different from the order of the standings. In the AL the Sox are far ahed in runs scored and sixth in runs allowed. The Sox have scored 845 runs, 120 more than Cleveland, which is second. They have allowed 659 runs, which is only 29 more than Cleveland, which has allowed the least. Based on run differentials I would say that Cleveland is the major barrier to the Sox making it to the WS. Of course, these are season-long numbers and don't reflect recent changes such the improvement in the Sox pitching and how other teams are doing in hitting and pitching.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Sept 20, 2016 23:58:41 GMT -5
yeah...it's too bad he went 1 for 12 in his only playoff appearance...just curious was that a negative WAR performance? Maybe. Just like Ted Williams going 5 for 30 without an extra-base hit in his only playoff appearance really showed what an unclutch stiff he was. You are both wrong. His only post season appearance was in the 1946 WS. That's when St. Louis unveiled the shift - the first time it was used. Williams went 5 for 25 in the seven games with 4 walks. I saw Williams (on TV) hit his last HR in his last AB. His last season in 1960 was somewhat comparable to Big Papi's this year. He hit .312 with 29 HRs. I think that as a pure hitter he still is the best of all-time, or possibly second to Ruth.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Sept 19, 2016 23:34:28 GMT -5
A few responses re: Porcello: - He's legitimately been one of the five best pitchers in the AL this year. If you want to say that means that "he's in the conversation" for Cy Young, fine, but I don't think he's all that close to number one (that's Sale or Kluber).
- Even if you used ERA-based value statistics like bWAR or Fangraphs' RA9-WAR, Porcello comes behind Sale (and Kluber is only slightly behind in RA9-WAR while being way ahead in bWAR). Porcello has given up more unearned runs than expected, and he's pitched in front of a very good defense. Those things matter.
- WHIP overrates Porcello-- he gives up very few walks, which means he doesn't allow many baserunners, but when he does give up hits, he generally gives up harder contact than his Cy Young competitors.
- Similarly, he ranks well in K/BB because of a low denominator, but by K-BB% (which is a more accurate indicator of pitcher quality), he comes in ninth (behind both Sale and Kluber, among others).
The only real argument for Porcello is based off pitcher wins. As alluded to, that's not in the least convincing to me. Really, really good season. But not the best pitcher in the AL. He may not be the best pitcher in the AL on any given night, but he is having the best season of any pitcher in the league and he undoubtedly has had a greater positive impact on the performance of his team than any other. I think he wins the award and it won't be close.
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danr
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Post by danr on Sept 19, 2016 0:59:07 GMT -5
Is it possible that Hanley is going to be the next Big Papi?
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Sept 17, 2016 19:58:51 GMT -5
When I was a student at Johns Hopkins in 1964, I took a part-time job at WCBM in Baltimore to answer the phone for the first radio talk show in Baltimore. The host of the show was a very young John Sterling. One night he told me his life's ambition was to be the voice of the New York Yankees.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Sept 14, 2016 13:39:13 GMT -5
Porcello has more wins than Kluber, one more QS, and a lower WHIP. Kluber has a higher WAR and a slightly lower ERA. They are very close and right now either one could be picked fairly as the CY winner. However, I think Porcello's performance is slightly more impressive and it probably has had a bigger impact on the team's performance.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Sept 7, 2016 13:53:02 GMT -5
Eight of the 23 Red Sox 4th round draft picks from 1993 on have played in the majors but only one really has had a career, Jonathan Papelbon. The most recent 4th round pick to appear in the majors - and now is with the team - is Noe Ramirez from the 2011 draft. Four of the five 4th round picks since 2011 still are in the system and still have a chance of making the majors - Dalbec, Methany, McAvoy and Buttrey. Other 4th round picks to appear in the majors were Cecchini, Hazelbaker, Hottovy, Chris Smith, Angel Santos and John Barnes.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Sept 3, 2016 18:59:37 GMT -5
While I am skeptical, like Norm, of stats at Lowell, I do like the fact that Dalbec seems to know why he is hitting better. That is a good sign. But we have seen some great hitting in Lowell in the past only to see the player falter in the upper levels. If he is for real then there is a logjam at 3B. We won't know for a while.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Sept 3, 2016 18:48:59 GMT -5
I thought knuckleballers didn't have arm trouble, or is this the result of his pinch-running?
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 26, 2016 1:10:23 GMT -5
Can't help but notice that what appear to be four of the best position prospects in the Sox system now are third basemen - Moncada, Devers, Chavis and Dalbec. One of them could move to 1B and another might become a DH but that still leaves an extra. Moncada right now looks to be the best of the bunch and almost certainly a keeper, but what about the others?
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 21, 2016 20:43:23 GMT -5
Give Owens a break. He was parachuted in at the last minute and had no chance to catch his breath. I wasn't a bit surprised by what happened. I remain fairly optimistic about his future. I hope it is with the Sox but I would not be surprised if it is with another team.
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