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Post by mandelbro on Mar 23, 2016 11:50:56 GMT -5
I think Murphy and Young as a platoon in left might be better than Rusney. Rusney struggles getting the ball out of the infield unless he gets it in the hole and if it is true he is struggling with 93 MPH+ fastballs that is going to show up way worse for us in the future. Murphy career splits are good plus his (30+ yr old) last 4 yr splits look ok at around .265+ and about .320+ obp, if we split that with what Young will look like it will be better than what Rusney puts up and with Rusney in Pawtucket on an option the Sox would be better off seems like right now. Sounds like a neat solution in theory but in practice I think Murphy would expect some assurance of stability before he agrees to play in 2016. He's not going to play a month and a half to warm the seat for Rusney.
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Post by mandelbro on Mar 21, 2016 15:10:48 GMT -5
Well DiPoto's "trade this guy because he might get injured" strategy is looking smarter in hindsight. Hope its just a scare.
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Post by mandelbro on Mar 20, 2016 18:51:07 GMT -5
Put your stock where you want. You're allowed. For me, a guy that hits not just "two spring training home runs" but big boy blasts has power AND bat speed. Organizational reports suggest that he has plus bat speed which would coincide with the referenced results. If he were impeded by a "compact, controlled swing which limits his power and his bat speed" as you state, his recent 430+ foot hrs. must surely qualify as the great conundrum. He has exceptional hand-eye coordination to barrel up as many balls as he consistently does... strike out at a 12% or lower rate and hit .307 b/t AA and AAA in 2015. I don't think one has to compare violence in swings to form an opinion on bat to ball ability. This guy has exceptional assets. Why would they be a conundrum? It could be as simple as Travis having been comfortable altering his approach in those two at-bats against subpar pitching, in a way he isn't always comfortable doing so. Which is why he rarely does it. I'm not saying the kid is trash but I think people are getting ahead of themselves in projecting him to suddenly have added a home run stroke to his existing game. Travis' success so far has been achieved with that short, level swing in the minors. You take that away and he's hitting for more power - who is to say he's still hitting for average? Its like saying Xander has hit for power and hit for average, now he just has to combine the two and become an MVP candidate. Its not that simple. Sacrificing batted ball distance is what helped Xander hit for average and taking big cuts and chasing is what helped Xander hit for power. Its possible but its not nearly as probable in my mind as others seem to think. I'm with jmei, the numbers look good but lets wait and see.
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Post by mandelbro on Mar 8, 2016 10:30:50 GMT -5
Agree with Temple here (did I just say that?) Orsillo was fine, but O'Brien is another league as far as pbp goes. He's done tele-VISION before, too. Lots of it. He knows what he's doing. It is unfortunate he's in a partnership with Remy. Remy is awful. Absolutely true. Orsillo is short season A ball compared to big leaguer OB. I love listening to the games on radio and the more noticeable difference is going to be the absence of OB with Castig. I haven't heard the new guy yet but from what I've read, he's decidedly average. We shall see. As for Remy, like many ex professional athletes, he started out pretty well but after a while, they become the show. I couldn't stand listening to the Jerry Remy show playing in the background of a baseball game. My hope is that OB causes Remy to add a level of professionalism to calling the games that has been sorely lacking in the NESN booth. When will we get OB and Eck? That would be a good team IMHO. Regarding the new guy on radio. He is very average. Sounds like most baseball commentators do. He comes off like he pays close attention to the game, which hardcore baseball fans will appreciate. Professional-sounding guy. But it doesn't sound like he can replicate the character Dave added to the broadcast.
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Post by mandelbro on Feb 29, 2016 9:50:24 GMT -5
I think I'm going to be sick. Should have been Betts, Bogaerts, and Swihart. I don't get this. The Red Sox added the AL CY young runner-up and the most successful closer over the past five years. Why would they NOT be on the media guide?
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Post by mandelbro on Feb 23, 2016 11:04:16 GMT -5
I don't buy this Kelly-as-Wade-Davis thing which people keep bringing up. Why do people assume Kelly is a late inning stud if he doesn't work out as a starter?
Davis doesn't just throw the ball hard, he misses bats with his fastball. Kelly has never even gotten in the same zip code as Wade Davis' final year in Tampa (12% SwStr%). Its not like Kelly has this overpowering fastball that he struggles to complement with other pitches. He's got a bunch of pretty good pitches and no obvious two-pitch mix to whittle them down to.
Now if Owens deserves the 5th starter slot and wins it from Joe, that's great. But can someone explain to me why I should expect Kelly's stuff to play up in the bullpen?
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Post by mandelbro on Feb 22, 2016 12:17:02 GMT -5
It makes me question the need for signing Young; I know he's great depth in case of injury to JBJ or Betts and he probably can easily match what we would like to see out of Castillo if he isn't cutting it, but how much value does he have without one of those things happening?You have to significantly downgrade the defense for him to play over JBJ, who doesn't have really any platoon split and the one guy who deserves to be platooned (Castillo) also bats RH. I'd file it under #SpringTrainingProblems personally. If none of those things happens? Then we have a fantastic outfield and we're winning baseball games. One of those things will most likely happen. Castillo struggled a lot last year. Jackie is a total wild card at the plate. IMO Young's addition is more about minimizing risk and downside than improving the best-case scenario. I can get behind that seeing how the OF turned out the last two years.
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Post by mandelbro on Feb 21, 2016 20:27:34 GMT -5
I'd be careful not to read so much into Farrell's comments. This time last year, Shane Victorino was our everyday center fielder.
When he's in front of a mic, Farrell's first concern is pumping the tires on his players and his second concern is what he tells us. Wake me up when we actually see Chris Young in CF.
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Post by mandelbro on Jan 8, 2016 11:38:22 GMT -5
Is the radio silence concerning Upton really lack of interest though, or an indication that he's not going to make big money? Or is it more about waiting to find out what Chris Davis money is?
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FIP
Jan 2, 2016 20:54:46 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by mandelbro on Jan 2, 2016 20:54:46 GMT -5
Tomase is one of the more shameless hacks in sports reporting. I would not bother to give him the benefit of the doubt if I were you. I heard the interview and there was no suggestion that FIP is worse than "ERA or other traditional metrics," just that you can't put much faith in it. I assume they would prefer their own internal metrics please scouting. For Tomase to have heard this from people is perfectly plausible. What could be hackier than condemning words you have not heard? If Tomase didn't make up stories I'd put stock in what he says. No reason to trust someone with his track record.
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Post by mandelbro on Jan 1, 2016 21:18:53 GMT -5
Automated projection systems struggle with players without an established major league track record, and I agree that for prospects/young players, they're not super useful. I dunno. They loved Mookie going into last year (and the year before prior to his first callup). I think the problem with Swihart is less an issue with projection systems and more the fact that he's never really put up outstanding offensive numbers at any level. He's a very good prospect (and a decent player right now) because he's a legit catcher with the tools to be a good hitter, but why would anyone project him to be anything close to an average MLB hitter in 2016? Yes. Swihart hasn't put up BAD numbers at any stop, but it seems to me that the optimism about him is centered around the scouting angle imo. He has great tools. He looks really good in the cage and he's supposedly a decent enough kid.
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FIP
Jan 1, 2016 21:14:01 GMT -5
Post by mandelbro on Jan 1, 2016 21:14:01 GMT -5
Seeing as there is a lot of FIP talk in here, what does everyone think about the legitimacy of FIP? Tomase on the Hot Stove Show remarked how even extremely analytical front offices (dodgers/former Rays execs) kinda laugh at all the FIP talk. I'm gonna give Tomase the benefit of the doubt here because I didn't actually hear what he said specifically, but if he's implying that progressive front offices "laugh" at FIP in favor of ERA or other traditional metrics, he's being completely disingenuous. They may laugh at it because they consider FIP rudimentary compared to their internal metrics (metrics that neither we nor John Tomase has access to), but that's an entirely different discussion. Tomase is one of the more shameless hacks in sports reporting. I would not bother to give him the benefit of the doubt if I were you.
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Post by mandelbro on Dec 28, 2015 15:08:43 GMT -5
Looking at the Szymborski ZiPS projections, something caught my eye.
Ortiz .264/.350/.523
Betts .297/.355/.474
Ramirez .277/.358/.449
Pedroia .279/.339/.398
Bogaerts .289/.332/.415
Bradley .247/.319/.405
Travis .262/.313/.396
Holt .277/.333/.367
Shaw .238/.305/.393
Young .231/.304/.408
Sandoval .266/.314/.407
Castillo .260/.308/.369
Swihart .252/.297/.371
Obviously projections are just that, but it is interesting. What are the odds of Sam Travis actually getting a shot to contribute on the big league roster in 2016?
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Post by mandelbro on Dec 19, 2015 17:23:43 GMT -5
I'm optimistic that he can pitch well enough to justify being the last guy in the rotation.
I am not optimistic that his 8-0 stretch represents a change in his talent level. The peripherals don't appear to tell any story. One theory I saw on JABO was that he is using his pitches differently (increased slider and changeup usage instead of trying to be a sinkerballer) and that he's getting better results that way that are imperceptible in his peripherals. Not buying it yet though.
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Post by mandelbro on Dec 19, 2015 16:39:24 GMT -5
In Gammon's latest piece, he drops the nugget that Panda is working out twice a day in the Dominican and has a new diet chef. Thank the lord. That is great news but I still wish we had a platoon partner for him in case he proves incapable of hitting LHP again. Looking over the team's performance last year, the quickest fix you could see was to improve the overall 3B performance by platooning Panda with a RHB. Holt and Shaw have even splits but the overall offensive performance at 3B would really tick up if you had a Danny Valencia type lefty masher to platoon with Panda. Would go from one of the worst teams in the league offensively at 3B to one of the best.
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Post by mandelbro on Dec 19, 2015 16:26:40 GMT -5
Jon Morosi @jonmorosi 4m4 minutes ago Sources: #Dodgers engaged in ongoing trade talks with #Indians (Carrasco or Salazar) and #Rays (Odorizzi) aimed at acquiring starter. @fs1 I'm so curious to see what Salazar will cost if he gets dealt. Same here. Before we signed Price, Salazar was the guy I really coveted. His stuff is filthy. He's the same age as JBJ. The peripherals scream burgeoning ace. As far as I can tell the cost for Salazar should be a ransom. And is certainly a much more attractive talent than Shelby Miller. Am I wrong? We'll see. Anyway - the Indians should not be selling these guys off frankly. They have a dominating young rotation that can carry them in the postseason. Why not build around that? Trading Salazar for anything less than a serious impact bat is robbing Peter to pay Paul imo. Like how someone else described the CWS. The impact is in place. Chase depth and improvements that can nudge them from 81 wins to 89. Then when you get to the playoffs let that pitching take over.
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Post by mandelbro on Dec 11, 2015 10:47:54 GMT -5
It's a pretty major distinction. The idea that Buchholz isn't able to sustain his health when he's pitching well has merit. The last time he had both a 100 ERA+ and 120 innings was 2010. Buchholz has a five-year bWAR of 8.2, which compares poorly with Porcello (8.7), Shelby Miller (9.1 over four years), Mike Leake (9.4), Jake Peavy (11.2?!), Jason Vargas (8.6)... Talking about Buchholz is weird - because he'd never put together his health and excellence at the same time, there seems to be this potential attached to him. But he's 31 now, and it's time accept the pitcher that he is - a starter who provides mid-rotation overall value in a different way than most other mid-rotation starters do. And sure, maybe he will, one day, be both healthy and effective. That would be aweomse! But a team can't put a roster together thinking maybe this will be the year. It is a major distinction. And I'm not going to pretend I'm comfortable with him being a key part of the rotation. My point is that a lot of people, in the media especially, are accurately classifying the downside (he doesn't do squat) and inaccurately characterizing the upside. And then wondering why he's still here. As for the little back and forth, if you don't think he's going to be healthy then you can say that outright. Don't completely ignore nuance that has been laid out in a post.
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Post by mandelbro on Dec 11, 2015 10:21:08 GMT -5
People are somehow underrating Clay Buchholz. Everywhere there is Sox talk (on the radio, on this forum) I see people saying he "can be the #2 pitcher if healthy". I don't think that's accurate. He is absolutely one of the 15 best starters in the American League when healthy (2013 and 2015). Is that a #2 pitcher? K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB 8.50 1.83 0.48 .329 70.4 % 48.3 % 5.9 % 9.19 1.92 0.69 .290 78.6 % 40.4 % 7.8 % Those are lines from last year. One of those guys is Clay, and one is the pitcher we just gave $217M to. Look, I'm not going to deny that there's a lot of risk with Buchholz. He could still be hurt and suck, or he could get hurt again. But if he's healthy we've got a 1A and a 1B. Forgot a couple columns GS IP 18 113.1 32 220.1 dictionary.reference.com/browse/healthy
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Post by mandelbro on Dec 11, 2015 10:05:23 GMT -5
People are somehow underrating Clay Buchholz. Everywhere there is Sox talk (on the radio, on this forum) I see people saying he "can be the #2 pitcher if healthy". I don't think that's accurate. He is absolutely one of the 15 best starters in the American League when healthy (2013 and 2015). Is that a #2 pitcher?
K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB 8.50 1.83 0.48 .329 70.4 % 48.3 % 5.9 % 9.19 1.92 0.69 .290 78.6 % 40.4 % 7.8 %
Those are lines from last year. One of those guys is Clay, and one is the pitcher we just gave $217M to.
Look, I'm not going to deny that there's a lot of risk with Buchholz. He could still be hurt and suck, or he could get hurt again. But if he's healthy we've got a 1A and a 1B.
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Post by mandelbro on Dec 7, 2015 15:54:36 GMT -5
I'm ashamed to say I have no idea who Carson Smith is. Will take my cue from the reactions here... He was outrageously effective out of the pen. Getting both Elias and this guy makes this a good deal for me. The fans relished watching him come in to pitch. Very good stuff and he seems absolutely fearless on the mound, challenging batters. Initial impression is that this is a good return for Miley. Haven't you heard? Its a terrible trade because Smith might get injured Maybe I'm a fool but I think Kelly is going to make people forget about Wade
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Post by mandelbro on Dec 7, 2015 15:26:30 GMT -5
Barring injuries, we have an amazing bullpen now. I just wished they done this earlier and snagged Rich Hill as the fifth starter. Robbie Ross after July 1: 33.1ip 29h 9bb 35k Curious to see what happens with Robbie Ross. He's a better overall pitcher than all these other lefties (Layne, Elias) but he isn't as LOOGY-ish. His spread between LHH and RHH is relatively small.
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Post by mandelbro on Dec 3, 2015 13:10:18 GMT -5
I'm not sold on Joe Kelly as an option in the bullpen.
Its not like he has one or two really good pitches and a bunch of mediocre ones that get him into trouble. His fastball doesn't blow anyone away. His secondaries aren't that bad either. His repertoire is deep and he's at his best when the whole thing is working. And its not like he has a hard time sustaining velocity in games either. He's a strong kid and he can get through his starts.
I'm not saying Kelly would be BAD as a relief pitcher. I just don't see a reason why Kelly should be any better off coming out of the pen than he is as a starter. After all, if he's being good Joe Kelly you have no reason to take him out of the rotation. If he's being bad Joe Kelly I don't see a reason to expect it to change with a different role.
Rather trade Joe as a starting pitcher and drop some $$$ on a reliever (I want Tony Sipp like every single person on this forum does).
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Post by mandelbro on Nov 27, 2015 9:46:02 GMT -5
I know he's not posted but Shohei Otani looks mighty interesting. How much do the intelligentsia here think he'd cost if he were available? So the Sox apparently signed, judging by the projected roster for 2016: ... RH Manuel Ramirez (Venezuela 16 yr.) Kind of surprised nobody mentioned anything about this guy. Manny Ramirez and Cedroia. Sounds good to me.
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Post by mandelbro on Nov 23, 2015 10:01:12 GMT -5
Hanley is too bulked up because we watched him play there last year and that was obviously a problem for him. Some guys are bulky and can be flexible enough and agile enough. Hanley couldn't because he showed he couldn't That's not the point though. The point is that Moncada is doing something that no respectable personal trainer would recommend, that has no benefits and could tear up your rotator cuffs, and is posting videos of it because doesn't even realize it. That is not a comforting thought.
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Post by mandelbro on Nov 23, 2015 9:47:05 GMT -5
I don't really think anyone here is too worked up, or that worried about it. Its not a big deal but I don't think it's a completely trivial one either. Yes the kids career is not going to end because he's doing shoulder shrugs, he's not going to lose his flexibility to play the infield or steal bases either. But if he's doing exercises that are completely pointless to anyone who is NOT a bodybuilder and not functional in any way that it may be an indication of one of the following: 1. He has not been set up with a strength and conditioning coach in the Sox system yet. 2. The strength and conditioning coach needs to be replaced. 3. He is not listening to or following the program laid out by a strength and conditioning coach. Again I'm not overly concerned and I still have little doubt he might develop into an allstar, but it's something. Exactly. Its not like he's going to die or something. Its just frustrating that its 2015 and this guy has access to the BOSTON RED SOX and he's rolling his shoulders while doing shoulder shrugs. He ought to know better and the organization ought to be teaching him how to train properly, not leaving him on his own to do stuff he learned from some meathead in Cuba.
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