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Post by mandelbro on Jun 16, 2021 10:23:31 GMT -5
I don't have a problem with anyone that was cheating once it became clear that MLB was going to let everyone get away with it. It's hard to stomach the whining that they only get three weeks notice that the rules are going to be enforced, though. I have to disagree with the 3 weeks notice being reasonable. Like it or not, these aren't the days of Old Hoss Radbourn gambling and smoking and pitching 9 innings every night. MLB pitchers are extremely fine-tuned machines, that push the limit of how much velocity and spin homo sapiens can impart on a ball. It's unnatural, and that is evidenced in how many of them end up getting Tommy John surgery, having weird problems like Thoracic Outlet Syndrome, etc. Forget all of baseball - how many Red Sox pitchers and prospects have broken in the past 5 years? Immediately I can think of Carson Smith, Tyler Thornburg, Chris Sale, Eovaldi, Jay Groome, Anderson Espinoza, Bryan Mata shut down for the year, Josh Pennington had his career ended shortly after we traded him iirc. Kopech missed over a year. The fact that the pitchers can't do their job as described without getting hurt is a reflection of how fine the line is, that they have to walk to do it. So yeah, when Tyler Glasnow (a 6'7" human who throws 100 mph all game) says that a sudden mechanical tweak caused him to partially tear his UCL? I totally believe it. Introduce changes in the offseason.
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Post by mandelbro on Mar 9, 2021 13:41:04 GMT -5
Why do baseball people use "it" to describe their players all the time? They have the Rays GM mic'd up and he's doing it. Never "he has a good arm", always "It's a power arm", instead of he's got a good bat, "It's an explosive bat". John Farrell and Cora both do it, Cherington would too.
Do any of our insiders have some intel on this esoteric grammatical construct that is pervasive in baseball and non-existent outside of baseball?
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Post by mandelbro on Mar 2, 2021 21:10:54 GMT -5
It'll be interesting to see what Yorke turns into outside of hitting. He should hit, but the defensive spectrum is going to really range in the neighborhood of perhaps Michael Chavis territory. Anyone who puts in the work can become at least a good defensive player. Work also helps with hitting but hitting is one of those things with an almost mysterious component (like a golf swing) which can go off a lot easier than the defensive side. There are of course those rare cases of "the yips" in fielding (almost always throws) but those are unusual. Of course body type will limit a player to certain positions. And the Sox Prospects report on him mentions only positive defensive tools and skill set. IMO, there's survivorship bias here. The only players you see a lot of in the majors are the ones who are can be passable at their defensive position. If Nick Yorke is a DH, is he an MLB player? Probably not. But that player just never gets to MLB in the first place. Or if they're a Michael Chavis or Yairo Munoz (the stick doesn't match up to the defensive profile), they have a short career. MLB regulars are all passable at their position... which is why they are MLB regulars. But the road to being an MLB regular is littered with people who worked hard and weren't capable of being good enough defensively.
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Post by mandelbro on Mar 2, 2021 21:01:17 GMT -5
Here's a project for an extremely bored person (or eric): how have the Red Sox done in all trades that were primarily built around a reliever in the last 35 years? From Andersen through Slocumb to Melancon, Kimbrel, and Workman/Hembree. I feel like Workman/Hembree has a chance to put us into the black on balance. You sent me back to the Melancon chain... definitely a net loss (but maybe not ssoooo bad), working out basically to Lowrie for Holt. But wow... a lot of stuff in there. Hanrahan.... woosh. Those were dark days in the eternal quest for a closer. The Sox have been a buyer of relievers, and buying relievers is risky business. It's not a coincidence that their most successful trade in recent memory involving relief pitching was when they were the ones giving up the guy (Andrew Miller for Eduardo Rodriguez). Put another way - losing relief pitcher trades is at some level a symptom of being good, and thus pursuing trades for relievers in the first place. The BoSox haven't had much opportunity to sell relievers over the past 20 years.
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Post by mandelbro on Aug 20, 2019 9:18:10 GMT -5
That's basically my point though. Bobby Dalbec is generally a mid 90's ranked prospect. If he was a first baseman only, I doubt if he'd be in anyone's top 200. I don't disagree with what you're saying and have generally been on that bandwagon. The one problem is that as everyone else gets more expensive, the Red Sox will need league minimum players. Trading Dalbec for a 1B that costs money might not work, and prospect-for-prospect trades are rare. If there's a chance that Dalbec the first baseman will give you the same production at 1B that a theoretical "prospect 1B" would give you there, while also serving as the backup 3B, then it's not necessarily horribly wasteful. And for what it's worth, we've gotten reports and Ian's reported firsthand that Dalbec's 3B defense has backed up a bit this year. Doesn't mean he couldn't work on it, but it's probably more likely he'd become an inferior defensive 3B to Devers than a better one at this point (that statement made in part acknowledging that Devers is probably a 55 over there, so not necessarily a knock on Dalbec). It's kind of funny, but the decision point there probably has more to do with Mookie Betts than anyone else. I know you guys generally don't like to entertain talk about drastic position changes. But could Dalbec's tools play as a bat-first corner OF? As a former pitcher and 3B with a plus-plus arm I'd assume he has the arm. Does he have enough long speed to survive in a LF like Fenway? Or is he just too slow?
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Post by mandelbro on Jun 7, 2019 20:37:17 GMT -5
Shawaryn's pitches have good movement. Doesn't look like he can paint the corners though. You can see the talent.
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Post by mandelbro on Jun 7, 2019 20:23:22 GMT -5
what do we make of Shawaryn's debut?
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Post by mandelbro on May 21, 2019 9:12:03 GMT -5
Interesting, to me anyway, that with all the great young talent that has come up thru the system over the past 5 years their has not been a ROY winner. So now we have Chavis who if he can come close to maintaining his start would win going away. And everyone says our system is depleted, hempf. Seems like a real likable guy also. How about 25/80 285/360/530 and a ROY!! Pretty good numbers from your second basemen. What happens to Pedeynow? Good question. I think in a perfect world, you could put Chavis in LF. Then, when you face LHP, Chavis plays in LF and Pedroia at 2B, with JBJ on the bench. When you face RHP, JBJ is in the outfield and Pedroia and Chavis split time at 2B. Throw in spelling Devers at 3B and Martinez/Moreland at 1B/DH and you could still get Chavis in nearly every game. The problems with this: 1) While he might eventually (Cora has hinted at it), Chavis hasn't been exposed to LF yet. He could screw up, and he could also hurt himself there. Messing around with non-OFers in Fenway's LF cost us a catcher and arguably accelerated Hanley Ramirez's demise. 2) JBJ is so streaky, when is going hot, you don't want to risk not playing him everyday. 3) That's a whole lot of re-shuffling, all to shoe-horn a guy into the lineup who hasn't produced in a while.
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Post by mandelbro on May 14, 2019 10:15:17 GMT -5
Are we sure this isn't a question of value, though? I have an (admittedly unresearched) opinion that if you give me a hit-over-power guy and a power-over-hit guy, with the same wRC+ over the season, I'd rather have the hit-over-power one in the postseason. I feel like the guys with long swings who don't recognize pitches as well, are the ones whose game translates worse when there's increased pressure, preparation, bullpen micromanagement, etc. All else equal, give me the hitter without a hole in his swing over the hitter with one. Beyond that, I also think teams (especially the Dodgers and Brewers) are trending towards using positioning to get outs, and hiding bats in the field where they might not have been able to play otherwise. In the postseason we burned the Dodgers in particular defensively, because we hit to all fields and put the ball in play, and it made them uncomfortable. I think we're well positioned with guys like Betts, Bogaerts, Devers, Benintendi, and JD, to keep doing that. In the post-season you're simply facing better pitchers, which means the ability to destroy mistakes becomes less valuable while the ability to hit good pitches solidly becomes more valuable.
Splits by opposing quality are absolutely real and, BTW, don't necessarily reduce to hit tool versus power tool, as two poster children for the reality, I think, are David Ortiz and Alex Rodriguez. (Jeter vs. A-Rod probably does follow the above -- Vince Gennaro of SABR verified Jeter's ability to hit good pitching). A contemporary poster kid: Kris Bryant has a career .241 / .308 / .434 in 159 postseason PA, and is also -3.9 wins of "Clutch" in the regular season per FG's inexact number. The latter comes from not being able to hit closers. Right now, Devers looks like he could get a hit off of God, assuming He doesn't pitch around him.
Thanks for the response! This is what I was getting at. I'm not trying to say that players of one kind are more "clutch" than others because of their intangibles. But that playoff pitching as a whole is measurably better, and less mistake prone. So players whose style of hitting is more predicated on crushing a mistake will suffer. Khris Davis, Joey Gallo, Chris Davis (when he was still feared)... these guys are mistake hitters to me. You need to win in the regular season before you can win in the playoffs, so they have their place. But I want hitters who can cover the plate and hit to all fields.
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Post by mandelbro on May 13, 2019 12:59:28 GMT -5
I started posting this in one of the Gameday threads but figured it fit better here: I feel strongly that Bobby Dalbec will one day be an All-Star for the Oakland A's. Maybe he's traded at the deadline this year. Maybe he putters around a little bit and is the second or third piece in one of those "the Red Sox got someone good but gave up more than I'm comfortable with and we debate this for 15 years" deals. Maybe he flames out spectacularly and then all of a sudden shows up in 2026 with a 46 homer season. Maybe he also makes six All-Star teams for the Red Sox and then sorta flames out but has a Mike Piazza 2006 season for Oakland 12 years from now. His highs being so high make it hard to get a read on him. Usually when a dude is mediocre for four months and then a monster for one they end up having decent but not great end-of-year numbers. Dalbec's monster month in 2018 was so unbelievable that he ended up being, without much question, the organization's minor league player of the year. I will say that the Red Sox approach at the major league level in 2018 of valuing high batting averages and avoiding strikeouts served them well, and that Dalbec doesn't obviously fit that. BUT I also hope the Red Sox don't get too clever and start to value players based on fitting a type rather than simply evaluating how good they are. I just don't know. The Red Sox have never had a prospect who so much of his value came from his power but also had so much power. It's also hard to evaluate because guys who are overwhelmingly Three-True-Outcome aren't my personal favorite aesthetically, but it's also dumb to deny their value. Like, Joey Gallo is a very good baseball player, even if that's not my favorite type of thing. I'd rather watch a Jarren Duran type spread the ball to all fields and challenge defenses than someone with a wait-until-the-perfect-pitch approach, even with two strikes, and then swing as hard as he can hitting .185 for a month and then six homers in a week. But that doesn't mean Duran's style makes him a better prospect. This isn't something like music that's 100% subjective. You can enjoy something less but acknowledge that it's better. Really well-put, James. I feel pretty much the same way. Aesthetically, I just don’t find hitters like Khris Davis, Rob Deer, Adam Dunn, et al very compelling. And Gallo is a great comp too, especially since Dalbec seems to be concentrating on elevating versus, say, Chavis who seems to be focused on hard contact/LD but whose natural swing produces loft. For me, I put a huge emphasis on hit tool *objectively* because it has a huge role in narrowing outcome curves and reducing “risk.” Guys like Dalbec can end up being monumental disappointments. I’ll never forget the let-down of Jason Place. But it’s also true that, at the higher ends of their curves, they become very dangerous hitters. Throw in plus defense, and you’ve got Craig Nettles or Mike Schmidt. With the extreme TTO hitters, there are stretches of minimal production that, over the course of the season, create uncertainty in the team’s performance...too many guys like that, and the team can have awful run-scoring slumps where they’re losing 1-0, 3-2 games, and it’s all the more infuriating because a HR would tie or win it. Those close losses are excruciating. And then you get a stretch of 14-1, 12-3 wins and you’re thinking “jeez, can’t you save a few runs for later?” And those slugfest wins aren’t really so satisfyingly dramatic to watch. Of course, the good defense is a lot more consistent, which is why I *do* enjoy watching players like Matt Chapman. In the end, you’re right in that value needs to be separated from the subjective, both for us debating here, and for MLB FOs, obviously. Are we sure this isn't a question of value, though? I have an (admittedly unresearched) opinion that if you give me a hit-over-power guy and a power-over-hit guy, with the same wRC+ over the season, I'd rather have the hit-over-power one in the postseason. I feel like the guys with long swings who don't recognize pitches as well, are the ones whose game translates worse when there's increased pressure, preparation, bullpen micromanagement, etc. All else equal, give me the hitter without a hole in his swing over the hitter with one. Beyond that, I also think teams (especially the Dodgers and Brewers) are trending towards using positioning to get outs, and hiding bats in the field where they might not have been able to play otherwise. In the postseason we burned the Dodgers in particular defensively, because we hit to all fields and put the ball in play, and it made them uncomfortable. I think we're well positioned with guys like Betts, Bogaerts, Devers, Benintendi, and JD, to keep doing that.
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Post by mandelbro on Apr 24, 2019 15:32:52 GMT -5
I don't know about making an MLB debut, Chatham is 24 and still in AA. If he doesn't get promoted this year, there's a problem.
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Post by mandelbro on Mar 26, 2019 21:34:15 GMT -5
Let’s start off with a little gluttony. Rangers are selling a “Fowl Pole” It’s an 18inch 2 pound chicken finger Is it implicit that this is reconstituted, or are we supposed to think they got it from a chicken that's 6 feet long?
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Post by mandelbro on Mar 21, 2019 10:34:25 GMT -5
People are overrating the difference between Vazquez and Swihart's offensive track records.
Vazquez has a career 67 wRC+ in 999 PA and Swihart has a career 83 wRC+ in 597 PA. Vaz is a year and a half older, so while he'll never be Buster Posey, its hardly improbable that he'll get better.
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Post by mandelbro on Mar 18, 2019 10:04:54 GMT -5
You're missing him playing. No one can judge him because there is very little to judge. What's even worse is that he's a switch hitter and has gotten 162 total plate appearances vs LHP in the last 4 years. We've been over this a bunch so I'm not going to restate every argument in depth, but basically come on, man. This whole notion that Blake Swihart is some kind of unknowable mystery would not exist if he was in any other organization. Yep. Swihart got 207 PA in 2018 with the big club in 2018. Slashed .229/.285/.328. Over 2012 PA in AAA Pawtucket in 2017 he slashed .190/.246/.292. Swihart has been playing baseball in the organization.
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Post by mandelbro on Mar 18, 2019 8:39:08 GMT -5
I think the Sox have to move on from Swihart at this point.
I like the kid, and I think things could have turned out differently, had the team managed the situation better. But this is where we are now. He's still green behind the dish, and hasn't been the same since crashing into the OF wall. He doesn't have a great approach at the plate, he's a contact hitter who doesn't have match-up value off the bench, and is better suited to hitting every day.
Cutting the cord now is the best outcome for all parties involved.
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Post by mandelbro on Mar 14, 2019 14:39:38 GMT -5
Perhaps Cora is considering using Darwinzon as a future 'opener'? Maybe to give an extra day off for Sale, when needed. I've said this here and elsewhere: the opener is used by teams that do not have 5 legitimate MLB starting pitchers. The Red Sox are not the kind of team that the opener strategy applies to. The Red Sox are more likely to go into a season with 7 starters than 4.
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Post by mandelbro on Feb 28, 2019 15:11:27 GMT -5
Dalbec isn't known for patience but he's looked pretty selective in his ST at-bats. Is this a recent development or just a small sample?
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Post by mandelbro on Dec 7, 2018 12:50:11 GMT -5
Friends who follow college football more closely than I do: how legit is Kyler Murray? I know he's a Heisman finalist but we all know that doesn't always translate. There's a LOT of reason to be skeptical. I'd find his slight frame more concerning than his height. He looks more like Desean Jackson than he does any NFL quarterback. Robert Griffin III weighed in at 225 lbs. It's going to be hard to last when you take the hits his play style lends itself to. Height-wise, you're going into uncharted territory if you try and play him at QB. Its not just that he's 5'9", he has a low release. Russell Wilson is short for a QB but he still has a high release and good arm length. Murray's throwing platform is extremely low. The other big concern about his tools is that he doesn't throw on the run very well. He's got a rocket arm, but he really needs to set his feet and throw accurate. Mayfield, Manziel, Lamar Jackson were accurate throwing on the run. Given that you're drafting Murray to be a mobile QB, this is a big negative. He's not going to get a chance to stop and throw while running naked bootlegs on Sundays. Winning the Heisman is a great achievement, but no proof of future NFL competence. It's actually very unusual for a Heisman-winning QB to make it in the NFL: Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson, Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston, Johnny Manziel, RG3, Cam Newton, Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow, Troy Smith, Matt Leinart, Jason White, Carson Palmer, Eric Crouch, Chris Weinke, Danny Wuerffel, Charlie Ward, Gino Torretta, Ty Detmer, Andre Ware. That's almost 30 years and Cam Newton might actually be the best one of them all. Murray is just extra weird example of how different the college and pro levels are because he could win the Heisman and walk away from the sport. Basically, I think he made a great choice to move onto baseball. He was a fringey NFL prospect and one who would shoulder a ton of injury risk, to play on a partially guarantee rookie contract. I'm excited to see what he can do with his full attention on the baseball diamond.
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Post by mandelbro on Dec 5, 2018 14:27:18 GMT -5
I don't much understand the Minor League phases of the Rule 5 draft. I assume it is meant to be a mechanism for a team with a weak-ish farm system to improve, if only just a little. Is this the case? Do we have any opportunities here? It’s meant to give blocked players a chance in a new organization.
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Post by mandelbro on Nov 8, 2018 12:56:30 GMT -5
Esteban Quiroz had a 3/4 night tonight to bring him up to .300 in the AFL with a 1.028 OPS. This is on top of his 1.011 OPS in Portland this year. SSS, but he has shown a very good bat in the highest levels of the minors. Is he the answer at 2B next year if Pedroia isn’t ready to go? I got a very AAAA impression from his time up for Spring Training. Good patience, good pitch recognition.... couldn't catch up to fastballs on the inner half. I suspect MLB pitching is going to eat him up when he gets a chance.
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Post by mandelbro on Oct 28, 2018 9:55:18 GMT -5
@chron_MattYoung Check out Nathan Eovaldi’s teammates there to pick him up as he leaves the field after giving up the walkoff.
"I feel terrible. I feel terrible for Nate," Kinsler said. "I feel like I let the team down right there." Eovaldi added, "He just owned up to me. He apologized to me. And I feel like he has nothing to apologize for. We're a team. I know he's got my back and I've got his."
@buster_ESPN Alex Cora called a team meeting right after Game 3 ended, and talked about the epic effort, and how proud he was of his players -- singling out Nathan Eovaldi, who got a standing ovation from teammates. David Price stayed with Eovaldi postgame, on the bus.
“That was the most incredible pitching performance I’ve even seen,” Game 3 starter Rick Porcello said after the game, via WEEi’s Rob Bradford. “I actually, after the game was over I started crying because that was — I mean, he’s grinding. Every pitch. He literally gave everything he had on every single pitch and it was special. It was a lot of fun to watch. That’s the epitome of reaching down deep and I don’t know. I’m really proud of him. I’m proud of the way our guys battled tonight. We came up one run short. So be it. We’ll be back tomorrow.”
@jmastrodonato Joe Kelly: “I woke up this morning sore. Then I thought about Nate.”
@redsoxstats "What Eovaldi did last night was one of the most impressive thing we have ever seen on a baseball field, all of us in uniform we took that and didn't want to let that performance wither away. That was part of tonight." - Holt
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Post by mandelbro on Sept 4, 2018 10:03:39 GMT -5
I couldn't find another thread specific to Hernandez (perhaps its under a nickname?).
Does anyone know how serious the relief appearances are? Was this just a way of keeping his innings down at the end of the season, or does the team intend for Hernandez to be a reliever going forward?
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Post by mandelbro on Aug 4, 2018 10:12:20 GMT -5
Hopefully the big club has 1B covered next year, after this lines up Ockimey nice to take that job. Travis plays 1st and Left field. The only position Ockimey plays is first, so this hurts Travis a lot unless he is gonna play a lot of Left field and very little 1B. Whether it's in Boston or elsewhere, being able to play in in the outfield will be important for Travis's career. I think you want to push the envelope with him there.
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Post by mandelbro on Jul 19, 2018 13:03:42 GMT -5
I just checked and Mejia, the 15th overall prospect, ranks 3rd in the Padres system. The Padres now have the number 3, 13, 15, 29, 32, 33, 42, 75 (Anderson Espinoza), 95, 97 (Logan Allen) prospects. That's insane. Yes, that is quite an impressive group of prospects. However, their major league club is really bad, both pitching and hitting. It will take years for the Padres to field a competitive team as not all of those prospects are going to pan out. Its amazing how much their players have universally underperformed. I honestly wonder if they have an organizational flaw of some kind. Look at the OBPs their players are running. Even friggin' HOSMER has a .317 OBP this year. Its like players get to San Diego and suddenly stop getting on base.
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Post by mandelbro on Jul 2, 2018 11:07:52 GMT -5
Lets make overhand pitching illegal. Think of all the "action"!
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