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Post by mandelbro on Jul 4, 2017 12:20:43 GMT -5
I wondered who killed AA(or above) at 20(or younger), and I found some all star players as below. Player OPS age level M. Trout .878 19 AA M. Trout 1.029 20 AAA M.Cabrera 1.038 20 AA A Rod .953 18 A/AA/AAA K.Griffey .972 18 A/AA Wil Myers .827 20 AA Wil Myers .987 21 AA/AAA Wil Myers .867 22 AAA (Is there any other players who hit better than .900 at 20?) Devers hit .970 at 20 years old so far, much better than Wil Myers at 20 years old (.827). Devers maybe a very special player. Gleyber Torres comes to mind. He put up .863 in AA at 20 (and .863 in AAA before he got hurt).
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Post by mandelbro on Jul 3, 2017 8:41:44 GMT -5
His downside is that he's an innings eater, so that's a valuable player. Isnt his downside also what he makes a year, tying up assets that could be spent elsewhere? Not really. You're either.... 1) spending that $22M to replace him. Samardzija got 5 years and $90M. Mike Leake got 5 years and $75M. Porcello is being paid the going rate, so you aren't in for a discount if you replace him externally. 2) trading him, not signing a pitcher to replace him, and instead leaning on Eduardo Rodriguez/Brian Johnson. Way too many injury risks (Pomeranz and his elbow, Eduardo has gotten hurt a few times, Price is a ticking time bomb) for me to endorse this approach. And they don't have to get rid of Porcello to be able to afford one or two extensions. Which is what they ought to be trying to do.
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Brentz
Jul 1, 2017 19:26:52 GMT -5
Post by mandelbro on Jul 1, 2017 19:26:52 GMT -5
Brentz seems like a guy who gets included in a trade package for a middle reliever. Might be best for everyone. I don't see him as a Sox regular (not as CY replacement, for example), but he might work out elsewhere. I'd like to see him replace Young. But the Red Sox aren't big on platooning, historically. The Sox are playing him often vs. RHP, not just as the short side of a platoon. Meanwhile, his split has narrowed (and he's become somewhat less of a pull hitter) since he joined the organization. Looking at the numbers, only 35% of Young's PA in Boston have come versus lefties. Compared to the year before he arrived, when he took half of his PA vs. lefties. I'm not convinced the team evaluates that "roster spot" as a lefty masher. How much defensive versatility do we think Brentz has? As a prospect he was supposed to be more than a LF in Fenway. Do we think he can actually play RF? IIRC he got a few innings there when he was up but played mostly LF.
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Post by mandelbro on Jul 1, 2017 18:30:46 GMT -5
The pitching is not that much better in AAA than in AA. The best pitchers don't stay there long so there are a lot of older pitchers who aren't good enough for the majors. Devers' development is not being slowed by Peralta. That's ridiculous. Devers will be in the majors no earlier or later because of Peralta. Since Dombrowski has arrived he has promoted Benintendi, Moncada, Ben Taylor, and Lin from AA. He has promoted Travis, Marco Hernandez, Austin Maddox (for a week), Mike Miller (for a week) and Hector Velasquez (for a week) from AAA? Seems pretty evident that if the team is high on a AA player, his next step would be Boston.
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Post by mandelbro on Jun 30, 2017 23:23:54 GMT -5
Awesome win.
I must say, Lin hasn't looked good versus breaking balls. Needs to change or he's going to get eaten alive as pitchers catch on. Catches up to the fastball well though.
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Post by mandelbro on Jun 29, 2017 17:37:29 GMT -5
Rick Porcello to the Astros for Yuli Gurriel sounds like a pretty even trade. He's the exact kind of player the Sox need at third base right now. I like his upside even at the age of 33. -Astros get a inning eater which they need -Sox get a league average producer at third base -Frees up a spot in the rotation for a Sonny Gray which the Sox have been linked to -Frees up money in the CBT to go get a bat if need be I'd hate that. Yuli is a pretty average MLB player so far. And his contract, while reasonable from an AAV perspective, goes through his age 37 season. Porcello is a controllable RHP starter. He won't win another Cy Young, but he's been a workhorse and his peripherals suggest he's a #3ish type. And then you've got to actually go out and get Sonny Gray. So you're swapping 20 year old Devers (is this not the implied other shoe) for the 27 year old Gray, and then an ~$20M 28 year old Porcello for a ~$9M Gurriel. I don't think the money makes enough of a difference to want to do that.
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Post by mandelbro on Jun 29, 2017 15:18:55 GMT -5
Baseball Savant now has a metric of average speed for baserunners (link below). What i find particularly fascinating is that Xander Bogaerts is the 7th fastest shortstops in the league; faster than names like Francisco Lindor, Addison Russel and Elvis Andrus. As a prospect Xander was consistently listed as having average or below average speed (often expect to be below average or worse once he filled out and switched positions) while the 3 players listed above were all consistently listed as having plus speed. So how did the scouts get it so wrong? Did they use eyeballs instead of stop watches (he didn't LOOK fast!)? Did they fail to evaluate Xander at top speed? Or did Xander simply get faster through hardwork? baseballsavant.mlb.com/sprint_speed_leaderboard?year=2017&position=&team=I'm sure many who read this will want to dismiss it because these numbers aren't yet well known, but if you look at the charts you will see that it quite accurately reflects how fast we think of each player (Hamilton and Buxton are the fastest - Pujols and MOntero are the slowest) and the methodology accounts for when players aren't running at full speed. I've always accounted for Xander being such a good baserunner as his being a 'smart' baserunner. Perhaps he has been both smart and fast all along. I think it's partly that Xander actually got faster. Look at pictures of him in 2013 compared to now. He's reshaped his body. It's a credit to him. IMO, athletes who grow up in relative isolation often come undertrained. I'd wager that at signing, Xander didn't have nearly the same background of strength & conditioning/nutrition that your typical HS draftee does. He just caught up in the bigs.
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Post by mandelbro on Jun 22, 2017 13:10:55 GMT -5
Am I alone in thinking that Chavis is DD's primary trade piece for a stopgap 3B or late inning reliever? I hope I'm wrong. I've really enjoyed watching him break-out. You are not alone. And I hope you're wrong too. I definitely see risk in Chavis and I don't think he's a "keeper" by any means. But he's sure as hell not worth some marginal rental.
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Post by mandelbro on Jun 22, 2017 11:19:05 GMT -5
Just some food for thought, if Chavis has to move to LF, I don't think it necessarily puts more pressure on the bat: 2016 LF OPS mean: .739 (median: .739) 2016 3B OPS mean: .777 (median: .782) 2017 LF OPS mean: .762 (median: .735) 2017 3B OPS mean: .759 (median: .767) So although it looks like LF bats have rebounded a bit this year due to the higher mean, that mean is skewed by Conforto/Cespedes currently. The median LF (15th best LF) is still a bit weaker than the median 3B. LF is not currently a position of offensive strength in the majors. Yeah. People think of LF as a power position, but it hasn't been for a while now. Perhaps since teams value CF/RFers more, they put more resources into finding those guys, and cobble together their LF situations? That said, if being on the same roster is going to hamper either's defensive growth, I'd imagine Devers is off to AAA. Chavis seems to need all the practice he can get, and time is of the essence with Devers.
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Post by mandelbro on Jun 21, 2017 21:02:48 GMT -5
Chavis and De La Guerra up to AA Source?
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Post by mandelbro on Jun 17, 2017 21:27:31 GMT -5
Nice velo and high fastballs from Maddox. Couldn't get a whiff though.
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Post by mandelbro on Jun 13, 2017 12:43:37 GMT -5
For what it's worth the flexibility of moving guys to relief has been a year or two going now. They started showing that flexibility with guys like Callahan in 2015, Buttrey and Cosart last year. I also recall having a similar thought when they let Shepherd stay in the bullpen out of college - he's a guy they'd have developed as a starter in the past, I feel like. Yeah, I had Buttrey and Callahan in mind as part of the big picture shift in philosophy. Seems like they haven't always been as quick to move those players to the pen and challenge them there. Also don't know if I agree with the assessment re: starters. Yes, it's rare they take one in the first round, but how many late first-round picks have they used on pitchers? Even going back to the last few, the book on Kopech was that he might need to move to the bullpen, and the same was true of a number of guys they've taken in the third and fourth rounds like Cosart, Myles Smith, and Maddox. Frankly, with pretty much any pitcher, you could say at the time they're drafted something like "he needs to do X, Y, and Z, otherwise he's a reliever." I guess what I'm getting at, is it seems to me like they're taking on a different Y and Z to develop than they have in the past. Higher effort, more one-dimensional arms.
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Post by mandelbro on Jun 13, 2017 11:58:23 GMT -5
This pick is interesting.
It's always seemed that the Sox look for pitchers who are very much differentiated as starters. Over-the-top guys, who have the outline of 4-pitch mix, even if it's rough around the edges. Houck doesn't fit that mold at all.
The Sox have always been very inflexible about moving stalled starters to relief, or starting players in the bullpen. This year we've seen some more aggressive moves to the pen than usual (Buttrey, Callahan).
I wonder if the additions of Houck (and to a lesser extent, Shawaryn) are hints at a bigger change in philosophy.
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Post by mandelbro on Jun 5, 2017 15:00:12 GMT -5
Is Rutledge our best defensive infielder? His arm is strong, but he seems incapable of playing 3rd, and rangy but error-prone at 2B. Marrero has cross-trained at 2B in the Minors, I can imagine he's the clearly superior option in the field. I actually like Rutledge's bat by utility guy standards. Especially against LHP. I'm just not convinced he's a good defensive player, which is an important part of that job. He was talking about Marrero. Oof. Reading is fundamental. Regarding Tzu-Wei Lin. Even if his improvements this year are totally real, that doesn't make him ready for an aggressive AA-to-MLB promotion. Benintendi and Moncada aren't normal. Getting Lin to pull his weight in AAA by the end of this season would be a very positive development in itself.
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Post by mandelbro on Jun 5, 2017 14:16:17 GMT -5
Are you really advocating that we send down the best defensive infielder on the roster by a country mile? Court is a 29 year old with very mediocre minor league production until his last 150 PAs, and he's not known to have a plus glove. He'd probably be a better option to start at third base vs lefties than Sandoval, but that's about all you can say, and that holds true for Marrero/Rutledge/etc as well. Is Rutledge our best defensive infielder? His arm is strong, but he seems incapable of playing 3rd, and rangy but error-prone at 2B. Marrero has cross-trained at 2B in the Minors, I can imagine he's the clearly superior option in the field. I actually like Rutledge's bat by utility guy standards. Especially against LHP. I'm just not convinced he's a good defensive player, which is an important part of that job.
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Post by mandelbro on Jun 1, 2017 9:17:24 GMT -5
His full name is Lorenzo Carmine Cedrola. And he's really short. This is a match made in heaven.
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Post by mandelbro on May 31, 2017 16:23:18 GMT -5
Centerfield has for many teams become a glove first position. Kiermaier, Pillar, and JBJ are all prime examples of this. It already is. Of the 22 qualified CF in the major leagues this year (Jackie is not one of them but Benintendi is, go figure), 7 have a wRC+ over 100. At 91, JBJ would be 15th out of 23 right now, behind Dexter Fowler (93) and ahead of Adam Jones (91). Now, JBJ has his flaws. And I have wondered if trading him and keeping Margot (or moving Betts to CF permanently) would have been a better idea. But a cursory look at the leaderboards tells you that it is very difficult to upgrade from Jackie Bradley Jr.
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Post by mandelbro on May 26, 2017 21:35:41 GMT -5
0-10 with 4 Ks for Swihart and Pablo. Woof. The good news is that they were facing Blake Snell, a major league pitcher.
EDIT: The bad news is that they were facing Blake Snell, a major league pitcher.
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Post by mandelbro on May 26, 2017 11:54:43 GMT -5
It would be nice to get some more insight into this player. Still no HR on the season, but an OPS over .1000.
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Post by mandelbro on May 26, 2017 10:52:00 GMT -5
Craig Kimbrel is the first pitcher in MLB history to fan all four batters he faced in an inning, twice. He previously did it on 9/26/12 vs. the Marlins. The talking heads say three others have done it twice - Chuck Finley, Zack Greinke, AJ Burnett. Still absurdly impressive.
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Post by mandelbro on May 22, 2017 12:57:11 GMT -5
This is an interesting subject.
I agree that the Sox appear to have a systematic difficulty addressing pitching, and spend titanic sums of $$$ to run away from it rather than fix it.
I also think most of this board shares that opinion, hence the collective erection when Brian Bannister "fixed" Rich Hill.
Realistically, I'd surmise the organizational excellence of Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, etc. in this area runs far deeper than pitching coaches. Thinking that having Ray Searage will make your pitchers better is overly simplistic.
We all know that the Red Sox need to find a way to turn their financial muscle into better pitching development, the Red Sox know too, and the million dollar question is how.
My one thought is that I often wonder if the Sox organizationally focus too much on the strikeout. Seems like Boston farmhands and trade/FA targets are usually better throwers than pitchers.
I get that it's a Fenway-driven consideration but it's frustrating watching Boston pitchers run out of bullets in the middle of the 4th because they've been getting to 3-2 against every hitter.
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Post by mandelbro on May 22, 2017 12:35:45 GMT -5
As we discussed on the pod and I've said here, I'm not a big fan of using 3 roster spots on 1B/DH-only guys. Moreland's probably not as bad as his numbers over the past month and not as good as his numbers the first 3 weeks. I'm ok with .252/.357/.442 from that spot in the order, personally, if everything else is clicking. Another point Ian made on the podcast (why am I giving this stuff away? Go listen yourself, you moochers!) is that calling up Travis to play on the short side of the platoon is probably a disservice to his development. It's probably better to have him playing every day in Pawtucket rather than playing 1 or 2 times a week in the majors unless Moreland REALLY craters. Now, if Moreland gets hurt, Travis is up the next day. Maybe even Hanley too, I bet. The Sox don't manage very aggressively. That's not necessarily a Farrell thing, it's like bunting, they just don't do it. But I'd think that if Travis came up, he wouldn't just be the short side of the platoon. You're having trouble with lineup length. A team like the Rays would pinch-hit Travis for your 3B or C if you're behind, then shuffle the chairs accordingly. I just don't think Travis' numbers in AAA warrant a promotion, personally. Need to see him either control the strike zone really well OR hit for pop. On the balance of the season to date, he's done both at a satisfactory level, but neither at an "I'm gonna do this in the bigs" level. Definitely glad he seems back on schedule after his knee injury.
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Post by mandelbro on May 20, 2017 16:37:33 GMT -5
If Pomeranz played in Japan, would he throw a 600 pitch complete game?
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Post by mandelbro on May 19, 2017 9:03:33 GMT -5
Well about 5 days ago I don't think that this would have been considered a "ridiculous" discussion. Bradley was hitting .176 and the Sox had the 28th ranked offense...unable to score. I think you guys are being a little hard on demainah. I am a Bradley fan mesmerized by his white hot streaks and engaging personality....but boy he can be a black hole. Does anyone know what happens to his swing that leads to such dry periods? Is he that finely tuned that he implodes when a hair is out of place? I think his profile as a hitter lends itself to streakiness. He's a LHH pull hitter who doesn't put the ball in play much, and when he does, hits plenty of ground balls. When he lifts the ball he does damage. Over the last three seasons he has a BABIP of .302, and his true talent BABIP is probably .290-.300. So he produces a lot on a few of his swings (ISO of .222 in the last 3 seasons) and very little on most of his swings (high K rate and low BABIP). And when some of those productive swings happen at the same time it makes his overall stat line fly around.
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Post by mandelbro on May 17, 2017 14:49:42 GMT -5
JBJ should be a 4th Outfielder. A defensive specialist that comes into the game in the later innings. He should not be a regular starter getting to bat in the 6th inning down by 1 with men on 1st & 3rd. AL average OPS is .728. Not sure how GG+.710 makes one a 4th outfielder. EDIT: The more interesting argument is whether or not we are overrating Bradley's fielding ability.
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