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Post by mandelbro on Jul 27, 2017 17:20:37 GMT -5
I mean, that's not just Keith Law - MLB Pipeline agrees with him that Kopech's the top pitching prospect in the game. But using the MLB Pipeline list, the top prospects in the game right now are very hitter-heavy--there are just 4 pitchers in the MLB.com top 20 right now: Kopech at 12, Buehler at 13, Honeywell at 14, Reyes at 17. Baseball America has Kopech as the fifth pitcher and five P's in the top 20 (Reyes 12, Honeywell 14, Keller 15, Buehler 17, Kopech 20). He's certainly among the game's top arms... but he also was when he was traded. Those 4 or 5 are the top tier, it seems, followed by another tier with the likes of Greene, Gore, Puk, Allard, McKenzie, and others. I note that Kopech is on a sick three-game stretch (25 K, 4 BB in 20 IP). But before that, his control was a pretty enormous issue (53 BB in his first 78.1 for a 6.09 BB/9 mark). Even though he's still in Double-A, there's still a very good chance he's a closer rather than a starter, imo. But many of those pitchers have questions: Reyes is coming off TJ, Buehler has still never thrown 80 pitches in a game, etc. Saw it put best on Twitter at some point in the past week - the Sale deal is working the way a trade is supposed to, helping both teams. Question - to what extent is that because the hitting prospects are superior, and to what extent is that a reflection of consensus valuing pitchers less than it used to?
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Post by mandelbro on Jul 27, 2017 13:44:12 GMT -5
Margot hit a HR yesterday as well. He's battled through some injuries and a big slump this year but his future looks bright. Lots of FORMER Sox farmhands making noise right now. Keith Law tweeted today that Kopech was the #1 pitching prospect in all of baseball. Yeah, I've long resigned myself to the fact that there will be many "what ifs".
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Post by mandelbro on Jul 27, 2017 9:54:25 GMT -5
If they send this guy down after acquiring Nunez it's basically a war crime. Poor Mines in a way. With the knowledge of most Redsox fans and most of the people following Devers, Nunez is going to have to do a lot of the little things that other places to win our "hearts and Minds" You are infinitely overestimating "the knowledge of most Redsox fans". Eduahdo Nunez is hittin .300, he's good.
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Post by mandelbro on Jul 27, 2017 9:47:05 GMT -5
Moncada answering Devers with a bomb of his own to center field tonight. Margot hit a HR yesterday as well. He's battled through some injuries and a big slump this year but his future looks bright. Lots of Sox farmhands making noise right now.
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Post by mandelbro on Jul 27, 2017 9:43:38 GMT -5
What do you mean? I can't imagine anything Elias does will affect what the team does at the deadline. Nobody's going to trade for him and he's not going to slot in as an 8th-inning type or anything. 8th starter should we include Johnson, Valasquez or Beeks in a trade. The proverbial you can never have to much pitching. Yeah, I didn't read your post as "It'll be interesting what he does because it informs what they do at the deadline", but as "it'll be interesting what he does because he becomes more important if they do something".
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Post by mandelbro on Jul 26, 2017 9:21:19 GMT -5
I get that watching a Red Sox team score 3 runs a night for what feels like the first time since Vietnam is frustrating, the Sox have done the hard work in the short to medium term.
They have a Cy Young caliber ace pitcher and a pretty damn good rotation. They have quality young guys at all the up-the-middle spots. They have Kimbrel to close games.
The challenges facing the Red Sox, this year and the next two: -Sort out 1B/DH -Find a bat-first 4th OF -Get a setup man out of Carson Smith/Joe Kelly/Matt Barnes/the glut of AAA guys
Those are all first-world problems. Are they certain to get sorted out? No. But they are eminently solvable, in the grand scheme of problems that MLB ballclubs face.
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Post by mandelbro on Jul 26, 2017 9:11:31 GMT -5
I don't get the panic about the offense, honestly.
Benintendi and Devers will improve. Betts and Bogaerts should be better going forward than they have been, and now we've got Nunez so we can DL Bogaerts.
Betts is going through some growing pains now that he's being pitched away a lot. It's not fun to watch, but he'll be fine in the long run.
Pedroia's age is a concern but as long as he's earning so much in the field, you don't need to really worry.
The tough spots on offense right now are 1B/DH. There's always a ton of options for those on the market.
Payroll flexibility is the real issue, when you have a 1B who isn't playing 1B (Ramirez) and a DH who is in San Francisco (Sandoval).
The Red Sox are not in a perfect position. Who is? They've got a strong hand and that's the best you can ask for. They'd have an extremely strong hand were it not for the series of self-inflicted 1B/DH debacles.... but no use crying over spilled milk.
Shaw hit his 23rd bomb last night. Where can we find a guy like that?
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Post by mandelbro on Jul 24, 2017 15:46:51 GMT -5
Per Red Sox.com, Devers has been assigned a low number, Buchholz's old No. 11, rather than a number in the seventies like some of their other recent rookies. They either think he'll stick, or they're looking to move some authentic game uniforms with DEVERS 11 on the back. Then why not start with #70-something, sell some of those, then pull the rug out with a change to #11 next year?
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Post by mandelbro on Jul 24, 2017 9:31:34 GMT -5
Cincy could always pay part of it in exchange for some young talent. It lowers their cost. Do you have the details? On Votto's contract? Here it is. Age in parentheses. 2017 (33) $22M 2018 (34) $25M 2019 (35) $25M 2020 (36) $25M 2021 (37) $25M 2022 (38) $25M 2023 (39) $25M 2024 (40) $20M club option with $7M buyout
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Post by mandelbro on Jul 24, 2017 9:11:56 GMT -5
A power hitting 1st baseman would be nice. Joey Votto? Cincinnati is going nowhere this season. Moreland surprised early in the season. Now he's a hole. It would probably take a Chavis to get him along with a pitcher or two. That trade could solve a lot of problems. One week to go to the trading deadline. Should be a fun week. Votto is a great player, but his contract is an albatross. Unless you have a really high tolerance for paying sunk cost (i.e. the Dodgers) he's not worth it.
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Post by mandelbro on Jul 23, 2017 19:11:18 GMT -5
What's up with Tzu-Wei Lin not being in the lineup today or yesterday for the Paw Sox?
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Post by mandelbro on Jul 18, 2017 19:19:06 GMT -5
Why are Redsox sending cash to White Sox? That's not a real trade, that's a fake Adrian Wojnarowski account.
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Post by mandelbro on Jul 18, 2017 16:06:44 GMT -5
Is his ankle injury related to the one he had last year? I know those ankle injuries can be brutal and can take more than a year before they feel right. From the ProJo, Brian MacPherson: " Source: www.providencejournal.com/sports/20170707/blake-swihart-still-dealing-with-discomfort-in-left-ankleWhat still bothers me about the Swihart episode is the way they abandoned him after a week. During the preseason, there were a bunch of press clippings of Price admiring Vazquez. Felt like a few vet pitchers didn't show up and they needed a fall guy.
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Post by mandelbro on Jul 18, 2017 9:06:02 GMT -5
Man, watching Devers interview makes me feel old.
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Post by mandelbro on Jul 17, 2017 8:47:07 GMT -5
Chavis is not striking out that much so far in AA, 16.7% Ks. That's just as encouraging as any dip in his slash line has been discouraging, imo.
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Post by mandelbro on Jul 14, 2017 11:45:00 GMT -5
Interesting note: Devers is 8 days older than Xander was when he was promoted to AAA in 2013.
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Post by mandelbro on Jul 14, 2017 11:30:55 GMT -5
@ryanhannable Sox prospect Rafael Devers has been promoted to Triple-A Pawtucket, per source. evandrellich had it first. And it's official.
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Post by mandelbro on Jul 11, 2017 9:47:49 GMT -5
So what do we make of Lin's fielding?
To my eye he's left some plays on the field. His accuracy throwing to 1st hasn't been great, although one of those was in his first action, so maybe you can chalk it up to jitters. Didn't pick a one-hop throw from Betts the other day. Didn't catch a pop-out near the railing. These are things I'd expect from a defense-first type such as Marrero.
But.... he has yet to commit an error in 104.0 innings. His SSS metrics are superb. And Farrell isn't shy about playing him.
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Post by mandelbro on Jul 10, 2017 15:52:23 GMT -5
Hell of a season so far. I did not expect them to be this good at all! Maybe my expectations were too low. The pen in particular has really surpassed my expectations. Kimbrel is pitching better than ever. Kelly, Barnes and Hembree have all moved up a peg on the leverage totem pole. Robby Scott is death to lefties. Boyer has even been useful. You might want to look at Robby Scott's splits again. He's walking way too many guys. In June and July, he has walked 5 of 19 LH batters and also hit one. .111/.256/.229 against, with a delivery that seems naturally tough on LHH. I'll take it.
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Post by mandelbro on Jul 10, 2017 14:57:58 GMT -5
Hell of a season so far. I did not expect them to be this good at all! Maybe my expectations were too low.
The pen in particular has really surpassed my expectations. Kimbrel is pitching better than ever. Kelly, Barnes and Hembree have all moved up a peg on the leverage totem pole. Robby Scott is death to lefties. Boyer has even been useful.
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Post by mandelbro on Jul 10, 2017 10:57:19 GMT -5
Yeah, turns out he definitely didn't read all the way through something Marly Rivera at ESPN reported, that Devers is getting promoted once the Peralta-Sandoval pairing isn't there anymore (which I'm pretty sure we were all assuming). If you only read her tweet, it said "Red Sox Prospect Rafael Devers, who I'm told will be promoted to Triple-A Pawtucket..." and you then had to go to www.espn.com/espn/now?nowId=21-0675820636181896256-4 to read the caveat. Nice find!
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Post by mandelbro on Jul 10, 2017 10:40:25 GMT -5
Worth noting - when we signed Peralta to a minor league deal, Dombrowski said that there's an agreement in place to release him after a few weeks if it doesn't look like he'll be promoted to the big leagues. He wasn't specific about when the decision has to be made, but said "two or three weeks" which is roughly mid-July.
I'd think that ending the Peralta extended tryout would precede a Devers promotion.
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Post by mandelbro on Jul 7, 2017 11:05:17 GMT -5
The problem with having Castillo on the bench, is that raw speed aside, he struggled mightily to run the bases in his short time up. Maybe he's gotten better since then? As an armchair GM, since I have three center fielders in Betts/JBJ/Benintendi, I'd look for a LF-only profile 4th outfielder. Because regardless of which of the three is on the DL, the 4th OF wouldn't have to play CF or RF. Chris Young is perfect for the role I have in mind. Lefty masher, can pinch hit or carry at DH sometimes. Brentz fits the mold if he can hit MLB pitching. Castillo is overqualified defensively, but not ideal offensively. Castillo's never been a good basestealer and his baserunning instincts weren't great the last time he was in the majors, but in terms of going first to third or scoring from second on a single, given his raw speed, he's an asset. Having a LF-only guy as your fourth outfielder works if you're willing to shift your other outfielders around, but Farrell doesn't like to do that. When Betts gets a rare day off, Young plays RF (28 innings there this reason), which is not ideal (especially in Fenway). Maybe Farrell would be more flexible if there was a longer-term injury (as opposed to single game fill-ins), but maybe not. Castillo's skill set is less sexy than Brentz's, but I'm pretty confident that Castillo is the better player by a decent margin. Honestly, I think there's a good chance he's a better player than Chris Young right now. Agree to disagree. I think Castillo is a better player right now, if you consider them in their best roles. But as a LF who comes off the bench to pinch-hit and plays some DH, I definitely would take Young.
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Post by mandelbro on Jul 7, 2017 10:49:05 GMT -5
And, since they signed him, largely because of his ability to be a defensive CF, they discovered Mookie, drafted Benintendi, and JBJ began practicing black magic. So there's basically no possible avenue for the Red Sox to lack a center fielder. The Red Sox arguably need Castillo less than any team in baseball. And he can't leave. In addition to being a potential Young replacement, recall that Farrell doesn't like to move his outfielders around too much. Betts hasn't played a position other than RF since 2015, Bradley hasn't played a position other than CF since 2015, and while Benintendi's played a good bit in CF, he's not made an appearance in RF and seems unlikely to ever do so outside of an emergency. In that light, having a fourth outfielder who can fill in at all three OF positions would be a nice luxury, and Castillo fits that bill. We have a really good and young starting outfield, but those guys could use more days off than they've been getting, and injuries are always a risk. As a bench player, Castillo's speed would also be an asset, and he would be an acceptable pinch hitter, especially versus LHP or in a situation where you need him to make contact. I remain convinced Castillo is a legitimate major leaguer. Guys who play above-average CF defense and make a good bit of contact have a high floor, and Castillo's raw power also gives him a decent enough ceiling. (One thing to remember, though-- he's older than you think (turns 30 on Sunday).) The problem with having Castillo on the bench, is that raw speed aside, he struggled mightily to run the bases in his short time up. Maybe he's gotten better since then? As an armchair GM, since I have three center fielders in Betts/JBJ/Benintendi, I'd look for a LF-only profile 4th outfielder. Because regardless of which of the three is on the DL, the 4th OF wouldn't have to play CF or RF. Chris Young is perfect for the role I have in mind. Lefty masher, can pinch hit or carry at DH sometimes. Brentz fits the mold if he can hit MLB pitching. Castillo is overqualified defensively, but not ideal offensively.
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Post by mandelbro on Jul 7, 2017 9:06:39 GMT -5
My question is what do we do about Rusney Castillo? He's clearly performing in AAA and he's a hell of an athlete. All the money we're paying him why don't we plug him in at 3rd and swap his ludacris contract for Pablo's. so at least one of them overpaid guys will contribute. Pablo would need to get packaged with a Jason Groome for any team to take him. The majority of Castillo's value is related to being an outstanding outfielder. Trying to move an outfielder to the left side of the infield (and one who has shown such questionable baseball instincts as Castillo to boot) is crazy. Castillo is in a weird situation. The Sox can't trade him and eat part of the contract, without the subsidy counting against the luxury tax. They'd have to add him to the 40 man roster to bring him up, and commit to paying tax on his salary the rest of the way. And, since they signed him, largely because of his ability to be a defensive CF, they discovered Mookie, drafted Benintendi, and JBJ began practicing black magic. So there's basically no possible avenue for the Red Sox to lack a center fielder. The Red Sox arguably need Castillo less than any team in baseball. And he can't leave.
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