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Post by mandelbro on May 17, 2017 14:48:02 GMT -5
I am not a JBJ fan at all but I'm with everybody else, I see no reason to move on from JBJ during this season. I would however like them to explore trading him this offseason and move Benni over to CF depending on what the return could be. I wonder if they could get Manuel Margot Jokes aside, I'd be OK with trading Bradley given the low likelihood of extending him. But if that were to happen, surely Betts would be the choice to play CF. He's patrolled CF at a very high level before. Meanwhile Benintendi has looked shaky in Boston's facile left field.
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Post by mandelbro on May 17, 2017 14:40:17 GMT -5
How long should the Red Sox wait on JBJ? Since the end of his hitting streak last May 26th JBJ has played in 134 games with 478 At Bats. He has 109 Hits in that span for an Average of .205 with 21 Home Runs, 61 RBIs, 77 Runs Scored, 8 Stolen Bases, 53 Walks & 131 Strike Outs. His On Base % is around 300, Slugging is around 400 & his OPS is around 710. For his career he has had 1338 At Bats with 1 good hitting streak of 100 At Bats; with 42 Hits for a .420 Average, 496 On Base %, 800 Slugging & a 1259 OPS. Yes, he plays GREAT Defense. But is it enough to carry such poor Offense? .710 OPS is a pretty healthy OPS for a defensive CF. The fact that the Sox are carrying defensive specialists at C, 3B, and to some extent 1B, makes his relatively meager offensive production stand out. But that's a roster construction issue, not a Jackie Bradley issue.
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Post by mandelbro on May 16, 2017 11:12:26 GMT -5
Chris Sale's value isn't 83 wins to 87, though. It's like 83 to 89 or 90, the type of player who turns an otherwise 87-win team into a legitimate World Series contender. Coming off a 93-win season, they lost Ortiz but there wasn't a whole lot of reason to think they were a .500 team when they added Sale. If they end up there? Yeah, that stinks, and they've mortgaged their future to end up stuck in 87-win purgatory. I suppose I was more bearish than others on the team. You're losing Ortiz. You lost 1.5 wins at the hot corner in Shaw, and even if you kept him you were worried about losing that kind of production out of him. You had more more likely than not regression from Porcello (at least in terms of outcomes), Bradley, and Pedroia (who has already exceeded my expectations in terms of longevity). You're pretty sure the clock is going to strike midnight on Leon. Lost Koji. Wasn't expecting Kimbrel to be this good at all. For my money, they were a 83 team without Sale, albeit one with growth potential in the form of adding Benintendi, Xander turning into Power Xander, Swihart and Moncada lengthening the lineup, Eddie Rodriguez taking the next step. They've seemingly hit a bunch of worst-case scenarios and now they look like an 83 win team with Sale, but I would expect them to find their way to 87 this year.
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Post by mandelbro on May 16, 2017 10:38:38 GMT -5
And the Sale trade seemingly hinges on Moncada failing to reign in his strikeout issues. Nah. You can't measure a trade like that in career WAR. If Sale and Moncada both become Hall of Famers, but Sale peaks in value the next three years while Moncada does from like 2022-2025 then, in very rough terms, it's a good trade. Present wins are worth more than future wins because there are more paths to manipulating future ones. If Chris Sale turns into Pedro Martinez but Yoan Moncada is Chase Utley, Moncada is going to post a higher WAR from now to eternity but it's a winning trade. Generally, present wins are worth more than future wins, yes. But when you consider where the Red Sox are organizationally, the existence of "paths to manipulate future wins" is precisely why I would pass on Sale. I don't think present wins are all that valuable for the Sox. Taking an 83 win team to 87 wins is nice but it isn't something I want to pay a big premium on. I'd rather explore a splash for a Chris Sale in two years, when that player's addition has the promise of materially improving pennant odds. EDIT: To clarify, I'm not trying to diminish the value of Chris Sale to the 2017 Red Sox. The guy is freaking incredible. But given the timeline over which I feel confident expecting brilliance from him, and the state of the team around him, I have a hard time seeing the Red Sox make good use of that brilliance.
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Post by mandelbro on May 16, 2017 10:00:48 GMT -5
You mention those pitchers and their WAR contribution as if it had a similar impact to the 2013 offense brought by BC's acquisitions, but there's no comparison there: In 2013 the pitching was mediocre, but the offense was otherworldly. They had 35.9 WAR from position players, 7 more than the second best team. They carried that team to a WS trophy. Maybe this will make it more clear for you: In 2016, DD's acquisitions contributed 8.1 WAR out of a total team WAR of 42.6. That is 19%. In 2013, BC's acquisitions contributed 22.1 WAR out of a total team WAR of 51.9. That is 43%. More importantly, Cherington didn't trade 15 prospects away for his acquisitions. And because he didn't, DDo had them to trade. Correct, the balance of Dombrowski's moves will be what he has added less what he has shipped out. Moreland has been a useful contributor. But with Thornburg a zero and Shaw contributing elsewhere, you haven't netted anything between the two moves from a WAR perspective. Pomeranz for Espinoza is seemingly going to come down to TINSTAAPP for Boston to not regret it. And the Sale trade seemingly hinges on Moncada failing to reign in his strikeout issues.
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Post by mandelbro on May 2, 2017 10:12:34 GMT -5
Any updates on Jason's health and situation?
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Post by mandelbro on Feb 17, 2017 13:51:48 GMT -5
Good catch on Devers. Although I do think DD is very high on him. He's not stupid. No matter what happens with Pablo, we will need a 3B in a near future. Our #1 option is gone, Moncada. He was not going to lose another possible replacement at 3B. I don't know about that one.
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Post by mandelbro on Nov 4, 2016 16:11:23 GMT -5
So, elephant in the room here... How's everyone feel about Benintendi over Moncada? On the one hand, I would absolutely not have had that in mid-August, and I don't tend to be comfortable changing my mind on basically one month by one player and a dozen at-bats by another. But man, Benintendi hit .295/.359/.476 fourteen months after college. What's the downside here? As high as I've been on him, I think I've been undervaluing the potential upside because of his physical makeup. But having watched him play semi-consistently, there really just aren't any playable physical limitations. He's a fantastic ballplayer. If you look at upside solely as size/speed/raw power/arm strength, then Moncada is the higher upside player. But Benintendi has shown the ability to handle everything the Sox have thrown at him and then some. Now? He's the youngest guy on the field in Fenway park and he's still hitting. He's clearing out fastballs and laying off close pitches. He's been selective despite his age, and when he swings he rarely misses. Isn't all of that upside in it's own right? I'm not trying to dig on Moncada for his SSS struggles. I just don't think the fact that AB has a fringey arm is that significant. That means he can't be Mike Trout, that's all. Maybe Benintendi's swing/eye/coordinative gifts are just as unteachable.
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Post by mandelbro on Aug 29, 2016 12:46:40 GMT -5
Last year Moncada had exactly the opposite in terms of L/R splits. He crushed lefties and was okay against righties. Granted it was a smaller sample and against weaker pitching, and the K rate doesn't lie, but are we sure he's really that much worse as a LHB and a large part of it isn't just noise? In my mind it's the combo of the numbers and the scouting takes on here that suggest he looks worse on the right.
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Post by mandelbro on Aug 18, 2016 9:07:33 GMT -5
What a turn his career has made. No idea what to project him moving forward. I think .240/.300/.390 or so is a target he can hit. As a catcher who is by most accounts solid to good defensively, that is sufficient offense. 20% K, 5% BB, but with a healthy ISO mark. I think his offense will always be more volatile than most because he is a free swinger. But I can see a wRC+ of 80 or so being his talent baseline.
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Post by mandelbro on Aug 11, 2016 12:31:18 GMT -5
The lineup went cold for a couple weeks, but it's our pitching that continues to worry me looking to 2017. Is Pomeranz legit? Can Eduardo maintain this level of pitching? Also you have to replace Tazawa and Uehara. I'm assuming we let Taz walk. Farrell has pretty much destroyed him. Hopefully Smith can come back strong and Barnes and Hembree keep improving. Putting on my Eric hat.... In the five starts since E-rod reintroduced his slider: 3.18 ERA 8.26 K/9 2.86 BB/9 0.95 HR/9 .127 ISO against 11% SwStr .333 BABIP
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Post by mandelbro on Aug 8, 2016 20:24:24 GMT -5
Last night was a good example of why it would be crazy to promote Moncada from AA to the big leagues. Holt is making errors at third base, can you imagine what Moncada would do/not do?
Yoan is an awesome prospect but his plate approach and his defense are both a work in progress. Let him figure it out and use Holt, or if necessary Marco Hernandez, until then.
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Post by mandelbro on Aug 8, 2016 14:33:58 GMT -5
Any photoshop pros able to give us a photo of Rowdy Ronnie Raudes? MS Paint >>> Photoshop
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Post by mandelbro on Aug 8, 2016 10:23:26 GMT -5
My god. The kid has been up for 6 games. He's gotten ABs in 5 of them including 2 the first night when he wasn't even supposed to play. Anyone who is upset now, let alone 2 days ago is taking crazy pills. Don't play the "this is Boston card". If anything Boston fans are supposed to be smart. The kid just got the call and had to go out West and meet up with the team and deal with all the adjustments including personal stuff and we are upset he's only played 5 of 6 games? Show some patience. He's probably going to start all 3 against the Yankees and get increasingly more ABs vs left handed pitching. Its not like they are killing themselves by playing Brentz either. He's got fine AAA numbers versus LHP and his SSS slash line in the big leagues so far (.286/.333/.405) is in line with that.
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Post by mandelbro on Jul 29, 2016 22:45:36 GMT -5
Is it just me, or is everyone in the Greenville lineup roughly the same player?
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Post by mandelbro on Jul 22, 2016 15:39:35 GMT -5
This is the exact situation where hypo testing p-values are worthless and misleading, and you know that. It's the kind of data dredging that gets you laughed out of conferences. When you have literally hundreds of variables available to compare two individual starts, you're going to find a lot of false correlations. And even if you accept the premise that struggling in the two road games is sufficient, there are a million reasons that one could struggle on the road. It could mess with his routine or his preparation in other ways. Do we know how to calculate Latino Nightlife Runs Above Average too?
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Post by mandelbro on Jul 21, 2016 13:15:42 GMT -5
How do you improve the Red Sox? The same way it's been done forever. Add an Ace Starting Pitcher & an Ace Bullpen Pitcher, like DD did this off season. In the case of this team, it needs to be done again. Because spending $217 million on an aging pitcher in decline, and $37 million plus enormous surplus value on an inconsistent reliever has been so good you can't pass up the chance to do it twice?
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Post by mandelbro on Jul 20, 2016 16:31:35 GMT -5
Are you guys kidding? A plus fastball and a plus knuckleball? That is one unhittable pitcher. The idea of a pitcher who throws a 95 mph heater and a 65 mph knuckle sounds awesome in theory. But I think the arm speed difference would make it hard to mix the two deceptively. The fastball/changeup combo that has been used since time immemorial is probably that for a reason - throwing those two pitches at the speeds which pitchers throw them is an equilibrium between velo differential and mechanical similarity.
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Post by mandelbro on Jul 20, 2016 16:20:32 GMT -5
No doubt he was thinking of Zeno's Paradox of Achilles and the Hare, since to be ready he will have to get half better first, and then half better again, then half better again, and so on until the end of time. No problem. If it takes him a day to get half better, and the rate at which he heals stays the same, he's back in two days. Zeno never talked to Archimedes. While we are on the subject, it is a damn shame that Arquimedes Caminero does not throw a screwball.
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Post by mandelbro on Jul 19, 2016 16:45:27 GMT -5
That's all in your head, brendan. Dombrowski has given up exactly 0.0 ML WAR in the trades for Kimbrel, Hill, Ziegler, and Pomeranz, while Schwarber has already proven out at the major league level. I'm sure the number will climb above zero at some point, the question is how much of that future value he's given up for what he's acquired. He's tapped into the minor league system. That might be Theo stupid or it might not. We'll all find out if we stick around long enough. As for 2018, I doubt Kershaw is going anywhere. The Dodgers are quite capable of competing for his services. I also believe that the Orioles will do everything in their power to keep Machado. I could see Harper and Fernandez making their way to the Yankees, and that certainly wouldn't hurt them. They need to fill in more of the blanks, however. They have a few holes both in the current roster, and in the future: in the infield, the outfield, pitching and catching. They can rebuild, but first everyone has to be on the same page about when the teardown starts. I don't think they're there just yet. Why are people so convinced that Harper will not remain in Washington? The Nats ownership has shown the willingness to shell out big money before, this isn't a Loria situation. And more than any other player in baseball he's the face of the franchise. Am I missing something?
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Post by mandelbro on Jul 18, 2016 13:11:51 GMT -5
1. Moncada 2. Benintendi 3. Travis - Crazy I know! I am impressed by his consistency and think his lack of upside is being overrated. In the MLB today positional expectations on offense are muddier than ever and he's hanging with much older players in Pawtucket. His bat speed looks great and the eye appears to be there. 4. Devers 5. Kopech - Closer to Devers in my mind then one would think. I'm cooler on Devers than most (not being an actual scout probably has to do with this as it seems like he scouts very impressively at the plate) and I am impressed by the rate at which Kopech, knucklehead status aside, has matured physically and in terms of his delivery. 6. Groome 7. Johnson 8. Dubon - Very advanced hitter with defensive value, waiting for the other shoe to drop otherwise I'd rate him higher than Johnson (who is a pretty solid pitcher and hasn't died) 9. Chavis 10. Basabe 11. Raudes - Because its hard to argue with his results and I want to see that kung-fu looking delivery in the big leagues. 12. Hernandez - I love his production on paper, and I like the hustle he brings. But his lack of plate discipline and discomfort playing at 2B/3B are both concerning. I'm not convinced he can maintain his see ball-hit ball in the bigs.
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Post by mandelbro on Jul 18, 2016 12:01:13 GMT -5
Ziegler doesn't need to be a rental. 36 is old no doubt, but he's been a model of consistency, doesn't rely on his velo anyway. His age should depress the cost into the bucket where the Red Sox ought to be fishing out of with their financial muscle into to begin with - short years, a bit more per, playing style is somehow specifically tailored to Fenway. Low risk high reward. Let everyone else throw money at the "power armz".
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Post by mandelbro on Jul 18, 2016 6:55:17 GMT -5
That's the english pronunciation of his name. No cuban alive would pronounce Moncada mohn cah dah lol, but way to be so confident about something you obviously know nothing about. I think we all missed the part where this discussion was not being conducted in English.
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Post by mandelbro on Jul 10, 2016 23:01:20 GMT -5
So Moncada made a nice defensive play on Benintendi, hit .400, blasted a monstrous home run, stole a base ... did he fire a strong throw somewhere, or did he only get a chance to flash four tools? He made an impressive ranging pick of a ground ball up the middle and air mailed the cross-body jump throw, bouncing it off the wall behind first base. So you could say he showed off all five tools today.
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Post by mandelbro on Jul 7, 2016 14:07:19 GMT -5
Antonio Police (DSL) is an 80-grade name. Could walk up to KRS-One's Sound of da Police.
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