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gerry
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Post by gerry on Apr 23, 2024 12:21:57 GMT -5
Looks like Eric nailed it. And maybe that Ian read it here. Way to go soxpeospects.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Apr 22, 2024 11:17:47 GMT -5
Hit too many grounders to 2b? Or are we talking about Verdugo? He tried to get yoked, sold out flexibility for power and lost his true edge. Should be a precautionary tale about the 3 true outcomes approach and how it can derail someone's career. It’s good that truly ripped ONeill and Duran turned to Tom Brady type fluid workouts this off-season. Speed, power in balance.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Apr 22, 2024 11:09:40 GMT -5
Its crazy looking at the pole to open this thread and to see how few thought whitlock or Houck would be in the rotation. Guilty. The consensus seemed to be that they were well above average bullpen arms so leave them there. With Giolito, Monty, Bello, Crawford and Pivetta why upset the apple cart? Things change.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Apr 22, 2024 2:34:25 GMT -5
Jarren Duran’s 2024 defense (not including today’s game) 136 Innings LF: 3 Defensive Runs Saved, 1 OAA 61 innings CF: 1 Defensive Run Saved, 1 OAA That’s not factoring in today, which included a 9th inning running grab off a deep liner by Andrew McCutchen (that per Statcast had a xBA of .840.) His 4 defensive runs saved are tied for 3rd among all OF. (It’s Varsho, Riley Greene, then Duran and Nootbar. Abreu isn’t far behind with 3.) Duran hasn’t been merely just adequate out there. He’s been legit good. So very happy and soooo thankful this home grown run creator (and now home grown run saver) was never traded. I think his pedigree of constant adjustment to and development at every level has been unique even for a promising young prospect and player. With understanding (and reps) comes maturity. Sign him. The rotation, pen and lineup are suddenly full of youngish guys like Duran who are proving themselves to themselves and their teammates. Despite the brutal depletion of this roster, the core is taking shape.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Apr 1, 2024 10:07:55 GMT -5
His off-season routine was aimed at being more limber in order to avoid future injuries. If he has indeed lowered injury risk he can be that speedy, high OBP, power, RHB, GG outfielder we dreamed on. The FO should know sooner than later as you state. iMHO Anthony in the wings doesn’t necessarily complicate things either.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Apr 1, 2024 2:16:24 GMT -5
So the Red Sox rotation is looking good. 4 of 5 looking good enough to go toe to toe with an excellent rotation full of Cy potential. If Houck continues this trend in Oakland, wow! That’s 5 of 5 wildcard territory in poker. Might also promise wild card territory for the Sox. Why not??
Ironically, Sox bats (an expected strength of this team)are just warming up. But they still got a bakers dozen and 2W off that great pitching. I suspect they will get warmer in California weather.
And somehow I don’t see any team on this road trip matching their hustle or defense. We will be at Sunday’s game. Can’t wait. So far it’s been a great season.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Mar 29, 2024 12:37:51 GMT -5
RHP Kirby is another good Mariners starter. Just noticed that, in very SSS, Devers, Duran, Reyes, Story and Valdez have hit him well and with power. Abreu, McGuire, O’Neil and Rafaella have not had an AB against him. Keep it rolling.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Mar 29, 2024 10:43:05 GMT -5
I’m excited to watch the speed of Rafaela and Duran this season. This team is very athletic all of a sudden. Story is a former 20 steal guy as well. And Wong was running tonight too The announcers noted Wong’s 8 SB last year. Not shabby for a catcher. Maybe 10 this year in such a hustle environment? Plus O’Neill and Grissom. Could Story go 20-20 just for fun? Last night gave us doubles, home runs, plus 3 SB and CD’s hustle triple. What a balanced attack.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Mar 29, 2024 0:00:05 GMT -5
I like these kids, this hustle, this power, this pitching, this defense, this team. Happy day.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Mar 26, 2024 1:53:39 GMT -5
Just an observation. We have a pretty good group of ranked prospects; a strong farm. This list, so far, of about 25 unranked guys to watch says, to me, we actually have a very good group; a very strong farm with a bright future. Again. Especially with a dozen recent prospects already at Fenway. Some combination of someones have done their job well
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Mar 26, 2024 1:11:12 GMT -5
This I don’t get.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Mar 24, 2024 13:08:56 GMT -5
Got you by a decade and share similar concerns about how many more seasons are in me. Also share frustration that this young team’s potential this season may be wasted due to a disappointing off-season. But maybe not.
In reality, obvious performance improvements (some incremental or even speculative) are likely at C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, LF, CF, RF and maybe even DH. This promises a better offense and defense than 2023. It’s a better lineup.
Though I wish the rotation were deeper than Criswell and Fitts, they are both adequate back end starters and potentially better than average depth. 2023 was sad with serious injuries impacting all 5 of Sale, Paxton, Kluber, Houck, Whitlock. It was Pivetta, Crawford and Bello who eventually shone bright and they, along with strong, healthy and better equipped Houck and Whitlock are the 2024 starting 5. That’s a good rotation. Each of them are equal to or better than most of the FA’s and tradeables who were available. If this rotation is the weakest link, it’s a uniquely strong one.
IMO the FO did a good job rebuilding the Pen around Jansen, Martin, Winck, Bernardino. I am hopeful this new pitching brain trust will, in fact, help Sox pitchers be their best selves.
My first vague memories of Sox fandom in a large, Soxfanatic family began with the ‘46 WS. The last 20 Red Sox years have been largely wonderful. If things go at all well in 2024, IMO this team will contend for a playoff spot AND be the core of the next great team; which I plan to thoroughly enjoy.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Mar 22, 2024 10:35:16 GMT -5
Why is O’Neill, with his GG, speed and big arm no longer considered for RF, with Duran in LF? With Abreu, a good all around fielder, as the LHB backup for both O’Neill and Rafaella. That would be an amazing OF
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Mar 19, 2024 2:23:42 GMT -5
IMO he is an offensive generator, a run creator. He isn’t the first. We have seen a few. Some are just better than others at capitalizing on situations, offensive success which somehow has been written off instead of measured. More recently, for example, Ells stealing home, Mookie going 1st to 3rd on a SB, Duran’s frequent hustle doubles (and singles),
He is a that type of player, one that is not only fun to watch but causes mistakes by pitcher, catcher, infielders and outfielders, and we all know how mistakes compound themselves under such stress. Tito called it chaos.
It is even fun to imagine what he, Story, Rafaella, O’Neill, Grissom, Abreu might do in a game. Another type of power, one that’s been missing.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Mar 12, 2024 19:20:53 GMT -5
Ooof!
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Mar 12, 2024 18:58:49 GMT -5
It could be the opening day lineup. I think that’s a great sign for Rafaela, no? It’s seemed like they had only wanted to play O’Neill in LF. Maybe they are starting to grapple with needing a lot of LF at bats for Duran. IF/when this happens an OF of Duran, Rafaella, O’Neill, Abreu, Ref would be must watch baseball; and rank among the best in several categories including speed, runs saved, XBH. That is hopeful.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Mar 11, 2024 23:26:22 GMT -5
How many ties have we ever seen the players union take a stand on these issues ? The players don't want that crap either. Bingo. Self policing is often more effective than top down. MLB players share the same normative community. Within that and most communities there are ways to acceptably say and do things and lines that are not crossed.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Mar 9, 2024 3:12:40 GMT -5
His wife is working in Boston for like a year, then, they have good hospitals in LA, too. (Not that any of us are being particularly serious here. I just have a soft spot for Los Angeles.) I believe the deal is that she's slated to do her residency after Boston in Nashville. You can't just go wherever; it's like a doctor draft or something. Young docs apply to various med school affiliated hospitals for residencies, ones you hope to best learn your specialty. Some get accepted by several, some just one. She must be good to come to a Boston med center. On the other hand, she has been here for some time already, right? She might not have that long to go. Like Boston, the LA area has several highly regarded med schools and plenty of affiliated medical centers. If the Montgomerys move to SoCal she will have lots of opportunities for fellowships and jobs. They seem like quite a couple who will succeed wherever. I hope it’s in Boston.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Mar 5, 2024 13:02:42 GMT -5
In my mind you have to sell whatever you don't plan on keeping around long term. As much as it will suck for this year, there is nothing out there to be had that makes this even a competitive ball club. Jansen and Martin, gone. Anyone not named Casas, Devers, Mayer, Teel, Anthony, and Rafaela should be available to the highest bidder. Blow it up, see what the kids can do, and then actually do something for once besides sit on the fence. It already sucked in ‘22 and ‘23. At least let’s enjoy seeing what we have with this current group of players who have much to offer; see how they continue to develop. After all this bridge building and farm building, as well as imminent talent, no reason to start over again. The old pearl “perish the thought” describes that approach. The Sox actually have a solid young base. A couple of pitchers and that big bat were considered enough to make them contend. I am not in favor of just blowing off guys like Bello, Houck, Mata, Murphy, Pivetta, Slaten, Whitlock, Winckowski, Abreu, Duran, Grissom, O’Neill, Story, Wong, Yoshida, more. Blowing it up would certainly not guarantee acquiring this much talent or talent as interesting. Just add to this group Mr Henry.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Feb 29, 2024 14:19:26 GMT -5
The reality is these projection systems are not to be taken as gospel. In fact they got too much wrong, again, for too much of the League to proclaim them as gospel.
Sorry to perseverate but projections are as accurate as the information they are given and this information is accurate only in that specific window of time. In sports they simply can’t account for injuries, player mind sets, mechanical lapses, coaching blunders, fatigue, diet, inter-personal relations, family issues, etc. which influence performance over 162 games. This is true regarding performance in any profession. The human elements of doing any job.
I know. Numbers don’t lie. But I have sat in board rooms where those presenting projections do, intentionally or not; confidently presenting/inputting what they really don’t have accurate information on. Projections are guides, not gospel
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Feb 27, 2024 14:44:20 GMT -5
This glass can also be half full or even fuller.
Best case includes a healthier 2024 and:
1. The infield defense is literally transformed around a full season of Story’s leadership and unique skills:
Wong, as a “sophomore”, continues to improve following his off-season work on framing and pitch calling.
Casas, as a sophomore, gets back to being a good defender and maintains his development as a dynamic hitter.
Grissom, as a young “sophomore”, hits as he should/has and as a young, athletic, toolsy infielder settles in as at least an average 2B. He will be seriously impacted by Story’s skills.
Devers, prime Devers, will be Prime Devers. Like Grissom, his defense this season will be improved simply by Story’s range.
Story. Health is key. He seems healthy and is likely to not only rank among baseball’s top defensive SS, but is also a force with the bat and a constant threat on the bases.
This could be a solid defensive unit, maybe not great, but most certainly better than the 2023 version; and the offense from Casas, Grissom, Devers, Story could not only be improved but maybe a top 5. It’s a better infield, even without rosy glasses.
2. Outfield defense improves, possibly also transformed:
LF. With Masa as the primary DH, any of Duran, Abreu, et al improves range, arm. Duran’s defense before the wall would be greatly enhanced and his range and speed an improvement over 2023.
CF. With Duran likely in LF, Rafaella’s awesomeness will eventually dominate CF. Also an improvement over 2023
RF. A platoon of O’Neill/Abreu is often discussed. We lost Dugie but gained O’Neill and his 2 GG, improved speed, range and at least comparable arm. Abreu is still an unknown but we do know he can be very good. A real wildcard this season.
An OF of Duran, Rafaella, O’Neill, Abreu should surpass 2023’s mashup in every aspect of the game.
DH. We don’t lose Masa’s bat. His jaw is surgically repaired, he is acclimated, prepared. Turner was a smart, clutch, consistent, keep the line moving type of hitter with some real power. Masa is a smart, clutch, consistent, keep the line moving hitter with some power. I would take Masa (and Duran, Rafaella) over Soler or Teoscar. My 2 cents.
The Offense: Turner and Duvall are tough to replace. But a lineup of L-Duran, R-Grissom, L-Devers, L-Casas, R-O’Neill, L-Masa, R-Story, L-Abreu, R/L-McWong should minimize those losses while adding the variables gained with greater speed, more doubles and SB, youth and a shoulder chip.
Rotation: The starting 5 and depth 5 have much to prove but have already proven much. Bello, Giolito, Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, Houck, Whitlock, Winck and some good pickups like Fitt are not stars. But none are scrubs either. It’s a good staff with enough depth to handle injuries. Adding Montgomery raises the bar a bit while enhances that depth. It’s overall an improvement over 2023 which featured an injured Sale, Kluber, Paxton, Houck, Whitlock, rookie Bello and “others”.
Pen: Above average. With the pickups this off-season maybe we’ll above average.
Summary: Improved defense, improved offense, improved speed, more youth, some more imminent talent from Pawtucket, above average Pen, Ace-less but potentially average Rotation, potential pitching revolution in process. This team is better than 2023 and, despite spacious error bars, should have better results. IMO in it for a wild card to the end with 86-89W.
Worst case: injuries, disasters, end times.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Feb 26, 2024 1:23:42 GMT -5
Geeez. We visit SFO regularly. We love it. As do family members and friends who live and visit there. It must be remembered that CA is dealing w 30+% of America’s homeless. And c 1/3 of them are vets.
Similar problems exist in every city in this state from beautiful San Diego to Humboldt, Palm Springs to Napa. We have seen similar encampments in Boston and much of Florida. In fact the only place I was robbed was in Boston. Home sweet home.
Despite such problems, ballgames are pretty great in SFO, San Diego, Anaheim, LA. We stopped going to Oakland a few years ago because we visit people in SFO and down the peninsula more now, but enjoyed those games too when we went (not the stadium so much or the drums.)
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Feb 14, 2024 22:45:10 GMT -5
I never before realized that only a dozen teams are carrying the other 18. Rich billionaires carrying the water for the “poor” billionaires? That sounds very upside down. And the owners being carried are also the ones whose teams consistently tank and pick the best talent but remain “poor”. Am I reading this right?
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Feb 13, 2024 2:32:39 GMT -5
Agree with your reasoning BUT if it takes 225 or 235 to field a winning team in 2024 as the players and systems develop (and instill 2024 player/prospect/FO/fan/media confidence, pride and winning attitudes in the process) then spend the extra money now. Go over budget for a year to jump start the whole thing. It will ensure you can win with 200M or less and a fully operational organization in the near future. Penny wise seldom works.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Feb 12, 2024 3:01:17 GMT -5
I am going with this: his prior flashes of awesome were part of the process of figuring things out. At age 30 he showed that he has figured things out. He was ok to excellent for most of 2023, improving as the season moved on. The eye test and his projections pretty much agree on this so why not be excited in what could be his best (and contract) year. He won’t be the first guy who achieved his potential at age 30.
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