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Post by natesp4 on Sept 16, 2017 9:03:49 GMT -5
And lastly the obligatory check for how many of this year's A's used to be Red Sox's: A measly 5 (Down from 6 in 2016 and 2015 and 7 in 2014. The last time it was under 5 was 2011 in a year that ironically had 8 players who would later go to the Red Sox.) Who've played for them this year? I count 6: Lowrie, Alcantara, Chris Smith on the current roster, plus Ryan LaMarre, Montas, Lavarnway. I missed Chris Smith and I'm not even going to pretend it was just a goof. I had no idea he even existed. That also bumps 2016 up to 7.
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Post by natesp4 on Sept 15, 2017 17:45:48 GMT -5
Update on a couple of guys who I liked following while they were in the system:
The Sad News:
Jose Vinicio, CWS, AA/AAA (23): .231/.254/.329
Luis Alejandro Basabe, ARI, A (20): .229/.318/.337
Jason Garcia, BAL, AA (24): 75.1 IP 5.26 ERA 40 BB 74 K
Sean Coyle, BAL, AA (25): .187/.273/.306
The Happy News:
Jeremy Hazelbaker, ARI, AAA/MLB (29): .280/.344/.492 (193 AB) and .318/.412/.477 (44 AB)
Josh Reddick, HOU, MLB (30): .313/.359/.482 13HR 4.1 bWAR
And lastly the obligatory check for how many of this year's A's used to be Red Sox's: A measly 5 (Down from 6 in 2016 and 2015 and 7 in 2014. The last time it was under 5 was 2011 in a year that ironically had 8 players who would later go to the Red Sox.)
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Post by natesp4 on Sept 15, 2017 16:50:29 GMT -5
This is definitely an exciting year for the team. Nobody expects a cup, but there are so many prospects ready to make an impact along with already established young talent (Carlo, Vatrano, Pasta) that could take the next step forward. The cool thing about hockey is that as long as you're in position to make the playoffs, all it takes is having your goalie go off at the end of the season for the team to make a deep run (which Tuukka is absolutely capable of). So even with tempered expectations, I still have the glimmer of hope inside me.
My guess for the prospects is Bjork, Heinen, McAvoy, Kuraly make the team and have to be very ineffective to lose their spots early. O'Gara and Grzelcyk ride the shuttle between Providence and Boston. Senyshyn, Debrusk, Zboril, Lauzon, Gabrielle all get some further seasoning in the minors. Any of the 5 could easily breakout and steal spots later in the season.
I'm looking forward to seeing how horribly wrong I am too. Something weird will happen come October 5th and Jagr will be on the 1st line with Bjork not even making the team.
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Redirect
Aug 31, 2017 13:33:15 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by natesp4 on Aug 31, 2017 13:33:15 GMT -5
It's happening on my IPhone. IOS 10.3.3. I don't believe I've ever gotten it on my PC
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Aug 31, 2017 8:13:02 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by natesp4 on Aug 31, 2017 8:13:02 GMT -5
I've had the exact same thing happen to me many times. I always assumed it was just an issue on my end so I never brought it up.
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Post by natesp4 on Aug 14, 2017 17:25:03 GMT -5
Today I realized Mark Reynolds was putting up another nice little batting line for the Rockies (.867 OPS, 23 HR). Naturally you assume it's Coors field working its magic and you quickly find out he's benefiting from an absurd 360 point bump in his home OPS. Out of curiosity I looked into how that compares to the rest of the league and found Charlie Blackmon sporting a home OPS 500 (!) points higher than his away OPS. Other guys on the list who I found intriguing were Margot (+.341) and Judge (+.295) while Granderson (-.383) and Altuve (-.373) hating their respective parks was also interesting. For added reference in recent times over the their careers, Todd Helton unsurprisingly leads with a 167 point gain in OPS.
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Post by natesp4 on Aug 11, 2017 6:02:53 GMT -5
Suppose there was a first baseman who was also magically a pitcher that never gave up runs. I'd get that guy. Lol is this a Otani joke? Otani's talents are trivial compared to who he's talking about. Our boy Tucker Tubbs. 80 grade name and 80 grade pitcher.
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Post by natesp4 on Aug 9, 2017 14:32:46 GMT -5
Altuve's always been the MVP, maybe. Judge has been walked intentionally 5 times in his 41 highest-leverage PA. In the other 36, he's hit .212 / .250 / .485. And that includes 4 GDP; his effective OBP is .139. He's had 110 PA from the 8th inning on and has hit .196 / .327 / .304. He's 16th in the AL in Win Probabilty Added, right behind the Twins' Robbie Grossman. Interesting. I tend not to like WPA for MVP, unless someone is trying to make an Eckersley-in-1990 argument where his leverage was so disproportionate that it beats away overall value. I'd have to go through and figure out how many games Judge was batting in low-leverage situations in late innings because he'd been so dominant earlier on. I should have mentioned it earlier, but I wonder if Trout can get back in the mix even with missing 40 games with his injury. He's clearly the best player on a per-AB basis, which could lead to the most interesting total value vs. per-game value MVP discussion since Bonds (historically absurd in 130 games) vs. Pujols (more standard-level absurd in 157 games) in 2003. www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-mike-trout-mvp-precedent/Lucky for us, Fangraphs already discussed this in depth. It looks like a very real chance it could happen. Although Chris Sale might ruin this scenario by casually tossing up 10 WAR.
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Post by natesp4 on Aug 4, 2017 20:56:33 GMT -5
It's safe to say we all deserve a pat on the back here. Nunez very clearly read all of our "meh"s at the trade and is PO'd. Well done everyone.
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Post by natesp4 on Aug 4, 2017 20:48:35 GMT -5
Conrad Gregor is a 2010 1B/OF with a 6'3'', 220 lb. frame from Carmel, IN who attends Carmel HS. Big strong athletic build, plus strength. Open stance, very good swing, quick hands, very short to ball, shows power, nice extension out front, have to believe he's going to hit and hit with power at the highest levels. Very good athlete, 6.75 in the 60, consistent 4.3's to 1B, hustles, plays both 1B and OF well, absolutely outstanding at 1B. Very good arm strength, likely upper 80's guy off the mound if he pitched. Big guy with tools and serious hitting ability. Early draft prospect. Good student. Aflac All-American. Perfect Game Report on Gregor when he came out of high school in 2010. Was drafted in 40th round out of high school and then redrafted in the fourth three years later. Hitting .303/.429/.510/.939 with 28 XBHs (12 HRs) in 69 games of independent ball. Hopefully he's another good find like Barfield. www.crawfishboxes.com/2013-mlb-draft/2013/6/7/4406944/2013-draft-fourth-round-pick-conrad-gregor-1b-vanderbilt Draft profile of when he came out of college Speaking of which, can anyone provide some more insight on Barfield? I know he was essentially brought in as organizational depth, much like Nate Freiman and Cody Decker in 2016. However with his dominance is he on track to be a threat to make the big leagues at some point? It's unlikely it would happen with the Sox since Tavarez and Brentz are likely to be promoted before him but from a scouting POV does it seem like he's made advancements or is he just taking advantage of much less experienced pitchers?
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Post by natesp4 on Aug 4, 2017 7:28:25 GMT -5
www.fangraphs.com/blogs/we-need-to-talk-about-rafael-devers/Fangraphs ran a really interesting article about Devers and how perfect his swing is for Fenway. These stories are about as common at this point as BSOHL stories but based on small sample size results and the compelling evidence in the article, it seems it might be legit.
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Post by natesp4 on Aug 2, 2017 12:06:55 GMT -5
Don't know about its criteria, but I wonder where JetBlue Park was ranked. To all New England folk, I recommend checking out Dunkin Donuts Park in Hartford if it's ever convenient or when Portland is in town. The city of Hartford isn't special, and the construction was a fiasco, but it's a great park. I like Hadlock more but that may be my #2. I second this. Dunkin Donuts Park was a beautiful park and it looked like there were a lot of intriguing seating options in the outfield with grills and such. Although I'm assuming the majority of us try to stick near the scouts.
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Post by natesp4 on Jul 30, 2017 12:42:25 GMT -5
The Red Sox won the World Series in a year in which Julian Tavarez made 23 starts. Just in case anyone was panicking about the quality of their current 5th starter.
To be fair, while he wasn't exactly top tier quality, I still thoroughly enjoyed every start he made.
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Post by natesp4 on Jul 16, 2017 9:21:17 GMT -5
Personally, I like to see where the traded prospects are ranked. I essentially follow this site as 1/2 Red Sox fan and 1/2 a fan of prospects. I'm rooting for all of these guys. I would love to see Margot become an all-star 5 tool player or watch Espinoza develop into the best pitcher in the league. Once the trade is done, I really don't care what implications their development has on the hindsight quality of the trade.
vinscully is definitely correct that some people are only following the ex-prospects to feed their "I hate Dombrowski" manifest, but I think I can speak for a lot of posters and followers of the site in saying that we just want to continue to follow and root for the players that we spent so much time learning about.
I've actually become an accidental Padres fan just because so many prospects have been sent there. If a Frazier deal goes through then it looks like Dombrowski will have given me a 3rd team to root for.
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Post by natesp4 on Jul 12, 2017 16:08:42 GMT -5
Final list of bonuses is up at www.soxprospects.com/dh.htm. News in last update is Tyler Dearden got $140k. Sox only left $8,455 on the table. Nice work. I'd like to announce that I will gladly forego my college eligibility and sign for the remaining $8,455. That's really impressive though. Regardless of who pans out from this draft, to add that many prospects to the system is just such a huge win.
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Post by natesp4 on Jul 1, 2017 21:19:03 GMT -5
Think chavis is way overrated. Just like dalbec was this year until now. On both guys because Dave depleted the system so much, we have drank the kool aid too much on a short sample. probably still too high. Based on who we have I think that brannen and scheff are rated too low, but I understand the logic and bow to the experts. In total I like the last 2 drafts. Interested to see how the international signings change things again. My main argument against this is that Dalbec is older than Chavis and put up his ridiculous numbers in Rookie ball. Chavis did it two levels higher in almost double the plate appearances and is off to a nice start in AA. It doesn't mean he's a bonafide stud, but at a certain point 20 home runs is 20 home runs and makes him worthy of that #4 spot as a prospect.
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Post by natesp4 on Jul 1, 2017 21:12:41 GMT -5
I was able to make game 1 of the doubleheader in Hartford today. Second game had a pre-rain rain delay so I headed home early. I have a couple notes from the game if anyone was interested. Although I have zero scouting ability so any assessment I make should be taken very lightly. (Also all velocities were taken from the stadium gun).
Stankiewicz sat around 87-92 on his fastball touching 93. He had a nice outing stats wise but gave up a lot of long loud outs to the warning track. Olt had a nice day in front of his hometown crowd and Devers hit an absolute rocket on a 78mph breaking ball off the right field wall for a long base hit.
Chavis demolished some foul ball home runs on fastballs but the pitcher made him look silly on quite a few breaking balls. Defensively I feel like he plants himself too much before the pitch, greatly reducing his range. I could be completely wrong on that but it seems hard to get a good first step from that stance. That said, he made a nice ranging play to his right and threw a rocket over to first to get an out.
Williams Jerez sat 94-97 and reached back for a little more on one pitch that registered a decent 150mph on that trusty stadium gun. One thing I did notice was he seemed to have a pretty terrible pickoff move. Everybody in the park knew it was coming with many fans correctly yelling "back" before he even released the ball. The throwing position he put himself in with it didn't allow him to get much on the throw either.
Unfortunately it looks like the second game was the much better game to watch with Devers already hitting a home run
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Post by natesp4 on Jun 26, 2017 20:00:07 GMT -5
Joe Kelly and Craig Kimbrel are having weirdly identical/opposite seasons. Both are 29 years old with 32.2 IP in 31 games with a 1.10 ERA. Except Kimbrel has given up exactly half the hits, walked a third of the batters and struck out over double.
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Post by natesp4 on Jun 21, 2017 16:32:29 GMT -5
That's not even Scott's fault. Under no circumstance should he be pitching in that situation against a righty. (Granted, Perez barely has any split between LHP and RHP). Don't use his SSS '17 splits. He has a massive career platoon split: .887 vs LHP, compared to .676 vs RHP. Agreed, not Scott's fault. Salvy was born to hit bombs off a guy like him, and everyone knows it. Those numbers you cite are actually his 2017 numbers. His career split is .756 vs LHP and .737 vs RHP
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Post by natesp4 on Jun 21, 2017 16:13:05 GMT -5
I could definitely see Beleskey rebounding. I love his play style so I'd be happy to see him stay, it's just tempting to unload his contract. Subban I'm a little higher on than others. He was doing really well until the throat injury and I'm giving him a mulligan for last year due to the implications of that injury.
I don't think there's any realistic option that won't hurt. I don't think they would take McQuaid over the trade value that Subban and C. Miller offer.
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Post by natesp4 on Jun 21, 2017 16:11:34 GMT -5
That's not even Scott's fault. Under no circumstance should he be pitching in that situation against a righty. (Granted, Perez barely has any split between LHP and RHP).
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Post by natesp4 on Jun 21, 2017 14:23:54 GMT -5
Really don't want to lose Colin Miller. But some other teams are losing some really good talents so I can't complain too much. I wonder what it'd take to get them to take the Beleskey contract.
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Post by natesp4 on Jun 19, 2017 20:04:47 GMT -5
I have never got to watch him play but since he is a top 5 prospect now what's the ceiling on him? He seems to have good stats. Only 21 drafted in the 5th round and recently named a Carolina league All-Star. I was just wondering everyone's opinion on him. Does he have power? Should he be in Portland by the end of the season? The consensus seems to be that he's a good hitter with plus raw power but his 1B-only profile makes it so that he'll need to continue to be a great hitter and turn that raw power into more game power in order to be a first division regular. Especially considering that he's not so great defensively at 1B either. The knock with him seems to be more with his player type than any specific issue with him and many 1B prospects dominate low minors and fizzle out in the high minors. Now you could have gotten that from the podcasts or scouting reports, so I suppose my take is that I think he's a fun prospect to follow. I'll of course dream on him reaching what I see as his ceiling of a starting first baseman with average defense. Given his second half struggles last year I would prefer to keep him in Salem for the full season. This would allow him to get a full year of success under his belt before making one of the biggest jumps in talent level from A+ to AA.
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Post by natesp4 on Jun 17, 2017 19:41:32 GMT -5
With Mookie finally starting to get red hot I decided to take a look at his season so far. Coming into today's game he's at a .280/.361/.506 line with a bWAR of 3.5 (roughly on pace for 8.8). He currently has a BABIP of .272 compared to his career average of .311. It's crazy to think that he's put up MVP type numbers so far without any "Mookie style" dominant streak. (Likely somewhat related to his BABIP being 40 points lower than his average). The thing most intriguing to me is that his walk rate has jumped from 6.7% in 2016 to 10.9% in 2017. I remember quite a lot of discussion last summer over at fangraphs discussing whether Mookie's power was a fluke or not. (One such discussion linked below) www.fangraphs.com/blogs/its-time-for-the-league-to-adjust-to-mookie-betts/A generally accepted argument seemed to be that pitchers still weren't respecting his power and were pitching him as if he wasn't a power threat at all. This seemed to explain Mookie's oddly low walk rate for someone with such great plate discipline. With his walk rate taking such a large jump this year, it makes me wonder if pitchers have finally adjusted by pitching around Mookie or if Mookie has just improved yet another facet of his game. Without delving into the stats of how he's actually being pitched, it appears it is the latter. With 12 home runs so far, he's roughly on pace for another 30HR season and the only stat lacking this year is his BA. I'm curious to see what others think is the reason behind his recent improvement. The walks were really the only think separating him from Trout last year and while Trout's 17% walk rate is a ways away, it's still a really encouraging improvement.
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Post by natesp4 on Jun 5, 2017 12:20:47 GMT -5
2017 JBJ bWAR: 1.9 2017 Cruz bWAR: 1.6
2017 JBJ salary: $3,600,000 2017 Cruz salary: $14,250,00
JBJ is about 10 years younger, is making just under $11 million less than Cruz, and is under team control through 2020. Obviously bWAR is not a perfect tell-all stat, but in a season in which JBJ has struggled with the bat, he's still been just about of equal value to Cruz. As rookie13 points out, he's also heated up quite a bit over the two weeks.
Your point is that the Sox need another hitter, which is fair and Cruz meets the necessity. However, trying to make that upgrade in the outfield would make the team marginally better if at all while losing a very solid asset in JBJ. I'm also a little confused of where you would have Cruz playing as he's played 50 games as a DH for the Mariners in 2017. Regardless, 3B and infield depth is such a black hole that I would be only focusing on that if I were DD.
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