SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Recent Posts
|
Post by jimmydugan on Jan 17, 2020 17:48:25 GMT -5
I like it. There's a lot of "just throw the curveball more than previous conventional wisdom says you should" Brandon Workman upside here. Yeah I'm no pitching coach, but it seems obvious he should be throwing his curve a lot more. He doesn't have good velocity or movement with his FB, but he threw it 2/3 of the time. He clearly has a good curveball. Also, FWIW, according to Brooks Baseball his slider has "exceptional depth." He also has 5 years of team control, which is nice. His MLB numbers are terrible, but if he comes close to his 4.15/4.29 ERA/FIP that Steamer projects it'll be a steal. At this rate I feel like the Sox won't need a defense in the late innings. It seems like they're just going to strike or walk everyone.
|
|
|
Post by jimmydugan on Jan 17, 2020 12:34:57 GMT -5
I'm not going to speculate on the health of the SP, which is probably the biggest wild card this year for the team. And I hope that they continue searching for depth. But the 5 guys they have now pitched ~745 innings or close to 150 innings on average. They received 806 innings from their starters in total. And they were very careful with their staff to begin and end last season.
If they can get around 800 or 160 IP/each from the top 5 SP and 70 from Johnson/Velazquez/Weber/and whoever else they identified as candidates for spot starters/openers, that will give them 870 innings total. That would have been in the middle of the pack last year, which should work.
|
|
|
Post by jimmydugan on Jan 15, 2020 17:28:45 GMT -5
Can't wait to hear how this is another example of Bloom doing a terrible job this offseason. "Great, just what the Sox needed in the pen. A guy with a 15% BB rate! You should've signed Will Smith instead, ya bum! Season is over."
|
|
|
Post by jimmydugan on Jan 15, 2020 17:10:48 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by jimmydugan on Jan 15, 2020 0:20:34 GMT -5
Not going to act like DFAing Hernandez is the end of the world, but am I missing something on Ryan Weber? Weber really does have very good control, and they were playing with his pitch mix last year--he was throwing fewer fastballs than ever. The stuff seems so pedestrian to me - like a classic case of a pitchability Quad-A guy who commands his fastball and decent curve but just doesn't have that third pitch to be a starter or velocity to play up as a reliever - but I feel like they see something. EDIT: And I kinda forgot the obvious here - Hernandez can be outrighted if/when he clears waivers, while Weber can elect free agency. He was outrighted by Tampa in July 2018. If you're the Sox, this is exactly the type of player that you'd be willing to put a premium on, right? Just a guy who is enough of a lock to get through a lineup without giving up more than 2 runs in an emergency. Although I'm sure the Sox would love to upgrade on a guy whose probably a backup to Velazquez right now.
|
|
|
Post by jimmydugan on Jan 9, 2020 19:12:02 GMT -5
Pathetic and nauseating is more like it. Did I read it right - he blew threw a $675,000 signing bonus or whatever that was? Really?? Let me have a $675K signing bonus for a career that I failed at. Bet you, with all my bills, etc, I'll find a way not to go broke. That's utterly ridiculous. I'm glad (relieved) that his nonsensical lawsuits are getting thrown out. It does make you wonder though - the better prospects (somebody who could be a major leaguer unlike that nutjob) who don't make it and are stuck behind a mediocre player in the majors as opposed to a HOFer like Jeter - could that eventually become a lawsuit situation? Like a Roberto Petagine (who did make money overseas I believe) suing the Mets or whichever team it was that didn't give him a chance even though he was probably a better option than what they had. Maybe it's a good thing Theo traded Shea Hillenbrand and/or Jeremy Giambi got injured - not because Ortiz would become a legend, but so that David Ortiz sitting on the bench, stuck behind inferior players, wouldn't sue the Red Sox organiaation for taking away the career of what could be The Big Papi! lol. Perhaps the Red Sox saved the Twins from a potential lawsuit. And yes, I'm totally be facetious with this paragraph. Honestly, this is the one part of the story that does seem perfectly reasonable. He signed a 675k signing bonus over 10 years ago. I assume those are paid lump sum. He would have to pay >200k in federal taxes alone (highest marginal rate was 35% at the time, not sure if he had to pay state/local taxes) in addition to putting himself through law school. There's plenty of pro athletes who blow through millions immediately after retiring. I don't think it's crazy that he blew through 40-50k/yr. It's definitely possible to make that $ last, but I don't know if the majority of pro athlete (or Americans in general) have the financial knowledge to do so. Look at the history of lottery winners in this country.
|
|
|
Post by jimmydugan on Jan 2, 2020 16:48:32 GMT -5
They might think he clears. Also, if they really believe Dalbec is close, Travis is expendable. Right? Travis' role was basically getting spot starts against LHP at 1b/corner OF for the first half of the season. With JDM staying and Peraza and Chavis on the roster, he wasn't going to get many ABs. And it seems like the team is prioritizing guys with options so they're not just forced to give guys like Leon and Nunez ABs to preserve the little depth that they have.
|
|
|
Post by jimmydugan on Jan 2, 2020 13:30:02 GMT -5
"Plawecki was a standout behind the plate, where he ranked near the top of the majors in Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average metric." Baseball savant has him in the 98th percentile for framing. Steamer projects him for a wRC+ of 83. Seems like another pretty decent move to get a guy that's (presumably) cheap, gives them depth in an area of need, has years of control left, and a little bit of upside potentially. He has reverse splits so far in the majors, but it looks like it's mostly due to BABIP so i'm assuming that's random. Still, not have drastic splits seems a good quality for a backup C. The Rays have had a lot of success due to their depth: blogs.fangraphs.com/the-rays-are-dollar-poor-savvy-rich/So for now I'm giving Chaim the benefit of the doubt on these moves.
|
|
|
Post by jimmydugan on Oct 21, 2019 13:10:35 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by jimmydugan on Oct 8, 2019 18:08:52 GMT -5
Now say that again, only in a 2012 mindset and substituting “Big Papi” for JD. I think JD is the glue for the offense. He was also the difference in their performance between 2017 and 2018. I think the toughest decision is trading Mookie and his $30M+ in arb money. Maybe ownership thinks they can pull a Chapman and trade Mookie for valuable assets and then buy him back after next year? It still all goes back to Sale. If they didn’t extend him they’d be starting out the off-season under or almost under. What’s done is done, though. There are no good answers here, and I am still mystified why they are doing this now instead of playing it out to 2020. The penalties seem negligible in exchange to going for it completely with such an offensively gifted team - unless, of course, they don’t believe their own BS that they’ve been shoveling at us about the starters being “fully healthy” for the beginning of the 2020 season. It still all goes back to Sale. If they didn’t extend him they’d be starting out the off-season under or almost under. What’s done is done, though. JDM isn't a clutch hitter at all though, the complete opposite of Papi. He was ranked 2nd to last in the majors for 135 qualified batters for Fangraphs' Clutch metric. You could see it every time, with him swinging at sliders out of the strike zone in important spots. After reading this, I was curious, so I looked at Clutch from 2014-2019. JDM was dead last by a mile with -7.17. No one else registered a -6 or lower. I'm sure part of that is that he probably faced a lot of really good bullpen arms because of how good a hitter he is and I'm not saying it's predictive. But it is interesting. Xander and Moreland were in the top 3.
|
|
|
Post by jimmydugan on Sept 28, 2019 14:34:09 GMT -5
When does JDM have until to opt-out? I believe it's 10 days after the WS, but I'm having trouble confirming that. It seems like that's the obvious first domino to fall.
|
|
|
Post by jimmydugan on Sept 27, 2019 18:03:53 GMT -5
This is the official Devern Hansack tribute series. I always remember that game because I only lived in the East Providence apartment I was in watching that game for 2 months. One of my roommates was a Dominican whose dream was to write a movie about Latin Americans signing to play baseball and getting released, called Released (it sounded somewhat less weird when he described it). That was also the first time I tried fried plantains and fried yuca, so, successful 2 months between that and the lobsterman's no-no. I'm calling BS here. I've never met anyone from East Providence that wasn't currently living in the same neighborhood they grew up in. There's no such thing as a EP transplant.
|
|
|
Post by jimmydugan on Sept 2, 2019 21:47:05 GMT -5
Erics analysis also passes the smell test. Even without significant improvements it seems pretty obvious that this team is a 86-108 win team, and with some decent improvements, it's probably closer to 93-95 wins, right? I don't think it takes super detailed analysis to arrive at that. There's too much talent not to see this as a playoff team.
I think that there is too much of a fit between the Red Sox and the OFers we have for it to make much sense making a trade. You always listen to offers, but assuming there's payroll space, JBJ and Mookie on reasonable 1 year deals seems perfect.I don't think there's going to be dramatic disagreement over JBJ's value at this point. He's probably the exact player he has been the last 3 years, more or less. So no one will be overpaying enough for that to make sense.
For hitters, resign Holt to a reasonable 2 year deal and call it a day for 2 main reasons: 1) he gives us significant depth at corner OF/IF with a relatively great bat for the last couple of years 2) if the Sox don't resign Holt. I will definitely cry.
I'd love more depth here. But I'm assuming there's little budget for that. (Also I'm hoping that you're just glancing at the budget and those numbers are a little off)
Starters (and i'm using the term very loosely) against RHP: 1b: Holt/Chavis if he adjusts/Dalbec if he takes a step forward 2b: Marco/Holt/Lin if necessary
vs. LHP: 1b: Travis if necessary/Chavis if he adjusts/Dalbec possibly for second half 2b: Chavis/Holt (no major splits, right?)/Marco if he's not giving 3b&SS a day off/Lin
Pinch hitters available (whoever doesn't start out of...): RHB: Chavis/Travis/Dalbec later on/regular on rest LHB: Holt/whatever regular is sitting
Marco/Lin/JBJ handle most of the pinch running and defensive replacements.
Ride that out for half a season. You should be able to adjust if any of the main starters (Holt/Marco/Chavis) can't give you 80 avg starts.
Spend the rest on pitching depth.
|
|
|
Post by jimmydugan on Sept 1, 2019 19:06:30 GMT -5
Would not mind giving him a look for that role next spring at all, especially if they can figure out why his hit and HR rates spiked this year. It looks like part of the HR problem is simply that he's not keeping the ball on the ground as much: GB%: 37% vs a career avg of 47% Launch Angle 16.5% vs. a career avg of 10.6% since 2015. For reference, MLB avg = 11.1 Obviously more fly balls are leaving the yard this year. And keep in mind it is waaaay easier to go deep in Milwaukee than in Boston. FWIW it looks like he's been using his slider more and more (from 20% in '16 to basically 50% since July of last year). Even though his slider isn't getting as much movement, it's easily his best pitch. I'm assuming the slider is an especially important tool in the AL East because the RHB for every team see an above average amount of that offering. Especially NYY/TOR. He's good at preventing SB and fielding his position. Seems like he has the potential to be a decent candidate for a 5th starter/long man against RH heavy lineups and lineups with lefties that like to pull the ball due to his pitch mix. Obviously Fenway helps that too, especially if the ball doesn't carry as much next year. ZIPS is projecting him for 166 innings of 4.33 ERA, 4.56 FIP, and 1.2 WAR. At this point, I'd be thrilled if the Sox can get that out of a 5/6 type guy. He's probably also a good guy to pair with Johnson, right? If the Sox could get 200 decent innings out of the spot starters it would go a long way.
|
|
|
Post by jimmydugan on Sept 1, 2019 18:56:41 GMT -5
Would not mind giving him a look for that role next spring at all, especially if they can figure out why his hit and HR rates spiked this year. It looks like part of the HR problem is simply that he's not keeping the ball on the ground as much: GB%: 37% vs a career avg of 47% Launch Angle 16.5% vs. a career avg of 10.6% since 2015. For reference, MLB avg = 11.1 Obviously more fly balls are leaving the yard this year. And keep in mind it is waaaay easier to go deep in Milwaukee than in Boston. FWIW it looks like he's been using his slider more and more (from 20% in '16 to basically 50% since July of last year). Even though his slider isn't getting as much movement, it's easily his best pitch. I'm assuming the slider is an especially important tool in the AL East because the RHB for every team see an above average amount of that offering. Especially NYY/TOR. He's good at preventing SB and fielding his position. Seems like he has the potential to be a decent candidate for a 5th starter/long man against RH heavy lineups and lineups with lefties that like to pull the ball due to his pitch mix. Obviously Fenway helps that too, especially if the ball doesn't carry as much next year. ZIPS is projecting him for 166 innings of 4.33 ERA, 4.56 FIP, and 1.2 WAR. At this point, I'd be thrilled if the Sox can get that out of a 5/6 type guy.
|
|
|
Post by jimmydugan on Aug 26, 2019 19:39:17 GMT -5
Exactly. He is still young and raw. The veteran presence of Brockstar would be reminiscent of Cora and Pedey back in the day, especially as Holt is also experienced at 1B and 3B where Chavis might also see time. In this light, Holt is also a good lefty backup for a mostly (assuming Dalbec or Travis at 1B) righty IF. Holt also backs the OF, is a good hitter in his own right, and seems to be a truly positive force in the clubhouse, on the field and in the community. There is no one who could remotely replace his input for 2020. He already costs a little more than $3.8M, a bargain for all he brings. Add what, another $1M for 2020, or a one plus one at $8M total, til he retires a Red Sox? Still a bargain. I really like both Holt and Marco on the bench for 2020 but think it possible Marco would be really valuable in a trade for someone looking for a youngish, proven, rehabbed, good hitting lefty 2B with some speed and versatility. I hope the Sox keep the Chief and Brockstar at 2B. They make a uniquely complete baseball package. I think Marco could easily get 30-50 GS at 2b, 10-20 on the left side of the IF. He might not get a ton of starts, but he could also play most games as the primary IF defensive replacement/pinch runner.
|
|
|
Post by jimmydugan on Aug 23, 2019 12:52:33 GMT -5
It's a very Curt Schilling type of season. I miss that dude. He had such a unique career and profile. What ever happened to him after he left baseball? Schilling has been spending his time reviving RI's economy as well as bringing his understated personality to social media where he's been advocating for equality and acting with his usual grace and poise. Trust me. Don't bother with any research.
|
|
|
Post by jimmydugan on Aug 17, 2019 17:50:09 GMT -5
What if they can sign JBJ for like 4/$28 million? We really have no idea what his market is, but at some price point, he's worth keeping without an obvious replacement. The same goes for Porcello. Unless Duran fizzles, I would still pass. I don't think JBJ is going to age well. Nor do I think he'd accept that kind of deal anyways unless he had a really lousy year. I think 2021 the Red Sox need to look to a new CF, somebody under the age of 30 who has his best years in front of him, not behind him. They can find other uses for the $7 million. I agree that the Sox should be looking into CF depth, but honestly i think JBJ is a good fit and won't cost much. Because of Fenway, they need alot of innings covered by CF'er types. Is there evidence to support JBJ as a guy who won't age well? Seems like he's the opposite of a dude like crawford who fell off a cliff. He has great reactions and will take a walk. JBJ probably won't be an all star going forward, but i feel like there are multiple ways that he could help the team. I would love to have the Sox start building some depth with guys who can be at least average. He's a guy who can play most games even if he only gets 300-400 PA. If he can lay down an occasional bunt, I feel like he's an ideal 4th OF.
|
|
|
Post by jimmydugan on Aug 8, 2019 21:07:40 GMT -5
Would you agree though that this bullpen has been pretty unlucky? It's clearly a bad collection of pitchers and DD could have done a much better job constructing it, but it almost feels impossible for any group to be THIS bad. I think they've been unlucky in how much they've had to use a bullpen that they did a poor job constructing. There was obviously a belief that the five starters and three bridge-y/swingman types (Velazquez, Wright, and Johnson) would eat enough innings that the bullpens flaws wouldn't be exposed. I think that was a reasonable, sensible plan, but hoo boy has that not happened. But Barnes is really the only true reliever who has been notably worse than I'd have expected. I agree whole heartedly on the rest, but really? Honest question. i'm sure you've seen more of him over the last few years. But he's top 15 in XFIP-, SIERA. Top 10% XBA, XSLG. It really seems like he's gotten better over the years as the Sox challenged him more each year. I'm completely fine giving him the ball in high leverage situations.
|
|
|
Post by jimmydugan on Aug 8, 2019 20:56:04 GMT -5
Ian Kinsler had a 2.4 bWAR in 2018. Eduardo Nunez had a -1.1. WAR can be reductionist at times, but that's not close. The idea he was having a bad year in Anaheim is crazy, and he was much, much better than Nunez. That move, without a doubt, did more for my mental health than any move i can remember.
|
|
|
Post by jimmydugan on Jul 26, 2019 21:21:33 GMT -5
How in the heck did Devers hit that pitch like that? The pitch was way off the plate! UNREAL! Thanks for posted that. Wow. i'm struggling to express myself without launching into expletives.
|
|
|
Post by jimmydugan on Jul 14, 2019 17:03:32 GMT -5
I've got a ton of Cashner analysis which I'll put up before his first start.
The biggest news: based on xwOBA, his last 5 starts are the second best stretch of starting pitching this year by anyone on the roster other than Sale, next to Price from May 20 to June 8. And there are real changes in his pitch mix, movement (e.g., 2" extra on his slider), and horizontal release points.
The other remarkable thing is that he's had insane karma on balls in play. And the Orioles rank in the bottom 3 of MLB in team defense metrics! He has been helped in this stretch of 5 starts (.258 xwOBA, .187 wOBA) by having Keon Broxton in CF and rookie Anthony Santander in RF, and those guys are really good, but he also appears to have had a lot of fly balls hit close to his fielders (which is very unlikely to be a skill) and lots of line drives hit right at fielders (which is definitely not a skill). He's had a lot of success with the shift in his last 5 starts, and getting guys to hit into the shift may well be a skill (Porcello seems to have it when he's going well).
I'll let Eric get into the weeds, because obviously you're more qualified..but you weren't kidding about the last 5 starts: 1.41 ERA. 31 ERA- 2.55 FIP. 54 FIP- BB% 3.4 % The way I see it - Best case scenario: He continues what he's done in the last couple of months. He's a top candidate for the 5th starter role in 2020. Most likely: He gives 4-6 mediocre-just abv avg innings for the rest of the season. Sox lose <2m. Worst case: He's garbage for the next month. Sox cut him. It has an immaterial effect on the playoff race and the future of the Red Sox.
|
|
|
Post by jimmydugan on Jul 14, 2019 8:52:58 GMT -5
For what its worth, Cashner has changed up (pun intended) his pitch mix this year a bit. His FB usage is down to 50.4% this year and has typically ranged between 60%-70% in previous years. His CH is being thrown 25.8% this year which is a career high and up from 13.3% last year. According to FG, he's having success doing so too....his CH pitch value (14.6) also represents a career high among all of his secondary pitches, and it might also be helping to keep guys off his FB which has a pitch value of roughly 0 which is up from -19.1 last year. Looks like he started decreasing his slider usage in favor of his change up early in the season with pretty good results so far. First 4 starts: 21.5% SL, 18.2% CH Last 13: 9% SL, 27.8% CH (ERA- of 75 and FIP- of 77 in that span) He's done a good job of limiting walks (5.8%) in that stretch. If they make the postseason and he's on the roster.. Having a guy in the pen who can keep the ball on the ground could be useful too.
|
|
|
Post by jimmydugan on Jul 10, 2019 20:06:09 GMT -5
This probably isn't the year. The top teams in the AL are just too good, the Sox won last year and we've got a <50% chance of making the ALDS.
I see the priorities as: 1) Pitching Depth 2) Stockpile bats
This sounds vague, but I don't think we need top end SPs or 5 tool players..get any bat you believe in. over the off season reassess the right side of the infield at the MLB/MiLB level and see what JDM does with his contract.
|
|
|
Post by jimmydugan on Jul 10, 2019 19:57:39 GMT -5
Am I the only one who feels like the bullpen issue is totally blown out of proportion?
Don't get me wrong. They need better bullpen arms. They have since day 1. But honestly, I was on board with the strategy of having a solid staff/lineup and some quality swingmen and loading up on lottery tickets in the pen.
The problems are the same ones that were pretty clear from the beginning (right side of the IF, bullpen, etc.), but I don't fully blame the sox for feeling like there would be enough mediocrity between Pedroia/Holt/Hernandez/Lin/Anyone Else/Nunez at 2b, Moreland/Pearce/etc at 1b, Velazquez/Johnson/Wright/AAA filler at 6th SP and the pen. But still..that's what you need to address now because those are the same problems in 2020. I just never saw this team living and dying by the pen, so i don't completely understand the criticism.
I'll continue any ideas in other threads, but basically, I don't see it as a problem of needing one "proven closer." I see it as a depth problem. That being said it seems like that may be the best way to address the issue (please DD - get depth, but a "closer" will get noticed more next year). I don't know much about who is available/what the demand is, but the Yankees and Rays are definitely looking for arms that can provide quality depth, so they may be priced out of that market if other teams are coming from a similar situation.
|
|
|