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Post by Gwell55 on Oct 1, 2013 21:33:52 GMT -5
That's awfully generous of you, considering that, with that BABIP, Napoli was worth $19.5M (according to FanGraphs). People routinely forget to factor in the excess value a guy is coming off of. They notice the indicators for a big regression, and then assume that the contract figures being bandied about are not already taking that into consideration. But they often are. Same thing with Salty; he was worth $17.8, and no one is talking about a contract in that territory. There is room for a good deal of regression by both of these guys to still make them worth a multi-year deal at close to a QO level. I am not a fan of paying a player for what he did yesterday. Rather i prefer to pay him for what I expect him to do in the future. For instance if his production falls to 2012 levels (which would not be unexpected considering his strikeout rate and his career BABIP), Napoli would not be worth ten million. One thing here not being mentioned is Naps isn't a catcher anymore and almost all of his at bats prior were as a catcher ... that has to count for something too!
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Post by Gwell55 on Sept 29, 2013 11:59:34 GMT -5
Hunter Pence re-signs with San Fran for 5/90. Until I read about this yesterday, I was holding onto a shred of hope that somehow the Sox would get Ells to sign a 5 year deal in the $110M range. Now I'm resigned to the fact that he will get $140M+ from some moronic owner. And if it's Seattle, NYM, SF, or ChiC Of course someone can sell the t-shirts that say, "We Lost Jacoby Ellsbury to Free Agency and All We Got was a Lousy 2nd Round Pick." As long as he's not a Yankee. Why wouldn't the sox offer 20, 21, 22, 23 X 4 plus incentives for keeping healthy with an option triggered by that? Would that be enough to keep him?
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Post by Gwell55 on Sept 27, 2013 19:34:12 GMT -5
Conspiracy theory time! The umps knew Salty's hit would have given him the Sox double record for catchers and overturned a blatant homerun (according to Don) to help him in his contract year. But but, since it was in play and couldn't be a ground rule double by that shouldn't salty have been awarded another base past second (were he was headed or was at)for a triple and thus not getting the record for double trouble by a catcher... LOL
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Post by Gwell55 on Sept 27, 2013 17:20:15 GMT -5
August 16, 2006 was the start of a 5 game series between the Red Sox and Yankees. My daughter was born just before game 1, which Boston won; they then lost the next 4. If only I was a polygamist and had really good timing we could have swept that series. I could check later on but my memory is that the Yankees swept the Red Sox in a 5 game series in August 2006. I remember the Sox picking up flack for passing on Bobby Abreu. I also remember the Sox getting swept in a double header as part of the 5 game series and I think they dropped the final one 2-1 with Wells pitching well but taking the loss. I'm pretty sure they lost all five games. I also remember Timlin complaining about the hitting although he pitched poorly during the series and I think one of the losses was a 14-11 loss or something like that in the 2nd game of the double header. I remember Ortiz taking Rivera deep in the 9th but it didn't matter. They beat Detroit on August 16th 6-4 then started a 5 game 4 day series against the yanks which they lost all 5, a Dblhder, then 3 straight. www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2006-schedule-scores.shtml
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Post by Gwell55 on Sept 27, 2013 15:04:01 GMT -5
And how stupid are the blackout rules? If I BUY the MLB TV online package then at the very least I should be able to see, at the very least, the home feed of the team which claims eminent domain of wherever I find myself. Stupid. I have been fighting that for years. I live 500 miles from Seattle and they are my HOME Franchise... what a crock... gotta drive 500 miles to see the sox play Seattle or we never get it as root sports on the Direct Tv mlb package only shows about 2 a year I give a dang about. The online deal is just as bad. It was a lot better on the old C-band when I had a cousin playing and got a waver for the sox.
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Post by Gwell55 on Sept 19, 2013 21:18:39 GMT -5
"[Jackie Bradley, Jr.'s] lack of arm strength and range is also an incredible detriment to the team." t.co/s1XeTkYFm4Really ESPN? Who the hell is AJ Mass? I think he wrote some book called "What Pujols and Peyton Can Teach Us About Wookiees and Wall Street" by AJ Mass
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Post by Gwell55 on Sept 19, 2013 20:42:57 GMT -5
Some of these teams just need to move. Its as simple as that. There are plenty of cities out there that would support MLB teams that don't have teams. What would be really intriguing would be to open up a team in Mexico City. You also got cities like Memphis, Louisville, Portland OR, Charlotte, Vancouver, etc that could support teams. Hey if we here in the e Mp Tyland are lucky maybe the Mariners will now move and we won't have to be blacked out when we live 479 miles away! Come on baseball now that Nintendo is dead move em to Memphis!!!
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Post by Gwell55 on Sept 19, 2013 13:01:17 GMT -5
I agree this will happen by why SHOULD it happen? I would think the Sox would choose Bogaerts on the post-season roster over McDonald so he'd be available to hit lefties and I don't think he'd be an automatic out against righties, so the Bogaerts option would still be there. According to Eck anyways during the broadcast one of the Salty "double steals" over the past few days was due to a missed sign by Xander and only a missed tag or call saved them. This factors in regardless of if a prospect board likes it or not when they decide playoff rosters and playing time. Seems to me ECK is still wrong there, (he was wrong when he called it a double steal on the broadcast too) when Xander swung at that pitch that was way outside and unhittable it wasn't a missed sign but an unhittable pitch that no one could do anything with. Then again on another issue last night... Just like when you go back and look at Middlebrooks at second while his hand was on the foot instead of the bag my TIVO sure shows the tag never touched him and was Phantom as it was only on the dirt short of his body. But heck eck is fun to listen to on TV. So does that factor into the playoff or do announcers now get to decide on what they think they see and make the decision themselves for Farrell?
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Post by Gwell55 on Sept 18, 2013 14:54:32 GMT -5
Let's get back to who should be blamed for Bobby Valentine... bobo valentine = one bad year + dump bad contracts + clean out clubhouse + set new luxury tax + set new guidelines for those under contract. Hmm 3rd best free agent deal of last 5 years. Thanks Bobo for 2013!!!
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Post by Gwell55 on Sept 18, 2013 11:06:09 GMT -5
I don't mind repeating myself at all. So tell me again, why is it necessary to tease apart the hypothetical contributions of each and every member of the management team? I don't believe for a minute that any of this happened in isolation, which is what you seem to imply with "credit for the salary dump". Why bother assigning credit on an individual basis? Any owner-to-owner consultation would have to be vetted through the GM. Just as any request for additional talent would have to be vetted with ownership.Again, that's the way organizations work, good ones. Evaluating Cherrington means evaluating him in the context of what that team has accomplished, The reductionist approach makes no sense to me. Sorry. Very True! LOL I think maybe we should send this to Jeffrey and the Marlins staff as they definitely need to read this...
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Post by Gwell55 on Sept 18, 2013 10:43:38 GMT -5
I wonder if some players will consider taking a little less than the QO in exchange for the team agreeing not to make the QO after the following season. I know they do this in football. The problem with the three Red Sox FAs doing this is that all three might be coming off peak or close to peak seasons and this maybe the only season in which they can cash in on a LT deal even if the QO depresses their value. Also wasn't there a report that Drew took less 13 M yankees (10M us) but would have to change positions (3B) was their reported thinking for him and he wanted to play SS to prove himself there.
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Post by Gwell55 on Sept 17, 2013 15:34:44 GMT -5
Never mind
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Post by Gwell55 on Sept 14, 2013 14:37:49 GMT -5
According to Fangraphs, Nava is 13th in the league in Line Drive rate. All the players above him have very high BABIP. Is Nava's .350 BABIP somewhat sustainable or should we expect to see a large regression next year? Regardless of what most here are trying to overlook Nava should have a normal year for 14. That being said it should than be about a .270/.370/.410 for about a .780
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Post by Gwell55 on Sept 13, 2013 21:51:56 GMT -5
So, HR records were set because of changes in technique? Ok. Babe Ruth got to play when the league was only white players. Where's the asterisk next to his name? And Hank Aaron was in the crosstops N black beauty area where is his asterisk.
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Post by Gwell55 on Sept 12, 2013 18:26:03 GMT -5
Which wasn't a projection. But I am glad that this is important enough to you to crawl back through old postings. Mrs. Nava will be so happy, but jealous. I think it's bothering people because despite being wrong about a lot of things regarding how well Nava would hit going forward, you just keep digging your heels in deeper. You flat out stated that "he can't hit" and despite all evidence to the contrary you seem to stick by that belief. He's hitting .300 with an OBP over .390 right now. Most people on here will acknowledge Nava's strengths and weaknesses but you only focus on what he can't do. This is very true, and sadly all the failing to acknowledge anything and the negativity is close to taking over and ruining this thread. Hopefully we can move on to something more relevant.
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Post by Gwell55 on Sept 12, 2013 13:13:36 GMT -5
Have we ever seen Daniel Nava not improve at something he worked hard at? ... Height? 4 10" in high school 80 lbs AHHHHHH from there awesome work in the weight room thanks to his dad... I think he improved there too!!!
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Post by Gwell55 on Sept 12, 2013 12:29:17 GMT -5
Also the first couple of pages of this thread are gold. I looked to see if I had any crazy comments. Thankfully, I stayed out of this one. Mainly, because I always felt Valentine was a Lucchino hire not BC. And to this day I still think that Valentine was a strategic hire to get rid of the dead weight that was clogging the system and stopping us from coming a playoff contender all along. History may show that this was the truth weather we believe it or not! Here Here, Long Live the Valentine Strategy
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Post by Gwell55 on Sept 11, 2013 22:13:43 GMT -5
This ump is an bozo dink on that 3-0
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Post by Gwell55 on Sept 11, 2013 22:07:03 GMT -5
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Post by Gwell55 on Sept 11, 2013 21:40:21 GMT -5
Take a sit David Ross. That looked bad. Bradley's was worse though.
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Post by Gwell55 on Sept 11, 2013 10:08:23 GMT -5
OK, every other bit of evidence we have suggests very strongly that a) John Farrell is not an idiot; and b) the Red Sox are a well-run organization with a plan that its employees follow. So, I think we can make a fair assumption that Bogaerts and Drew are being used according to a plan with some thought behind it. The question is, what is that plan? It's kinda boring and useless to keep posting the same complaints about the use of Drew v Bogaerts ... clearly the Sox see a value in doing things this way, so what is it? I think that they believe this is important development time for Bogaerts, that is vital because he will be given the starting shortstop job next year, and that that is the #1 objective in having him up in Boston. But that still doesn't really explain days like last night. Seems like giving Xander a look at Price would help that goal rather than hurt it. So why play Drew? Is it because they want him to face lefties to stay sharp for the playoffs? Do they not want to give him two days off in a row at any point? There must be some reason beyond, "Farrell is an idiot!!1!" Even if I (we) disagree with it. Stage three: bargaining. There's really nothing mysterious about Farrell's bad decisions. They're all based around babying veteran players. Not platooning them, not pinch hitting for them, not making them take days off when they clearly need them, letting starters stay in the game too long, etc. Which is weird to me, because all we've heard about the Red Sox is how great their clubhouse is and how much they love Farrell. So isn't that the perfect time to ask your vets to sacrifice a few PAs for the greater good of the team? Seems to me that they are winning these games such as last night for the greater good of the team ... are we now advocating changing the whole system when they are winning at a rate higher than anytime this season? They are rolling over their division with a W% (in a very tough division) of .580 with a 36-26 record. They are also playing some tough opponents to a tone of 13-3 in this last stretch. I would think the front office and Farrell using the starting line up to prepare to clinch the division would make common sense. Also it was noted or quoted closely by the front office that Xander was up here to LEARN the Sox ways and to get a small experience of that which it looks like he is. Even Xander noted that after a game a while ago.
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Post by Gwell55 on Sept 10, 2013 22:10:20 GMT -5
The Mills Cup Champions of baseball Pretty good night all around, eh? Carolina League team wins it. Pawsox go up 1-0. Big boys throw a dagger at TB You mean Pawsox go up 1-0 on TB's AAA team?
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Post by Gwell55 on Sept 8, 2013 10:01:22 GMT -5
Sitting Xander today is just a dreadful decision by Farrell. Bogaerts also had a pretty good leg cramp when he hit that home run. His face was pretty contorted when he left the box. Let the kid rest and also keep Drew's head in the game.
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Post by Gwell55 on Sept 7, 2013 18:12:40 GMT -5
It's long been my view that JBJ gets his front foot down a little late ... he's better now than my memory of him in Salem, but I still think it's a little late. I suspect that may make it tough for him to clear out inside pitches because he's not set early enough. But then, this could easily be a case of confirmation bias on my part, I fully admit. Also, if it was 1949 the last time the Yankees lost back-to-back games in which they scored 8+ runs, I wonder how long it has been since they lost three of them in a row. MLB network was saying that the three losses AT YANKEE STADIUM (err actually at home) where they scored more then 8+ runs in each was a new high RECORD. go stinkiest ones of all time!
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Post by Gwell55 on Sept 7, 2013 14:34:40 GMT -5
So all the howls about Farrell and his bullpen management were unjustified??? It is time for Drake, Morales or anybody but Matt totally wrong guy Thornton to be called to the mound even in 6 run games.
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