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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Mar 16, 2024 9:51:48 GMT -5
No on Montgomery for me at this point. He'll get a late start to the season and probably have trouble catching up. The first year of his contract - which is supposed to be among the productive ones on a long-term contract - could be a waste. Boras can pound sand. He got burned and my schadenfreude is in overdrive.
Otherwise:
1B - Casas 2B - Grissom SS - MM (Hoping Story has a couple of decent years in '24 and '25, making himself Saleable.) 3B - Devers (He won't be a DH yet by '26.)
The OF and DH are complicated because building the NGRST requires unwinding some of the extreme LHH lean that we have now. That's going to get harder because the top three propsects, MM, Teel, and Roman Anthony, all hit LHH.
I'd love to see Yoshi make himself Saleable. He's a roster clogger. They'd still have to sub out either Duran or Abreu. Either one could fail and no longer be viable as a starter. We'd all prefer that that not happen, of course. It'd be great if they both excel and one can be a pot sweetener in a trade for much-needed SP.
So, I'd like to see:
LF - Duran or Abreu CF - Little Raffy RF - Anthony OF4 - A RHH lefty masher DH - A productive RHH. There's always at least one older guy available on the FA market.
C - Teel and a RHH platoon
They'd need another solid RHH platoon bat, preferably one who can play 1B and or 3B Bobby D.?! Yorke?
P - They'll have to spend big, either for a FA like Max Fried, or trade for a cost-controlled guy (unlikely, IMO, because it rarely happpens) and then extend him into his FA years.
After that, it's Bello, Crawford and whoever they can get to piece together the 4 and 5 spots.
Closer - Houck Multi-inning guy - Whitlock
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Mar 8, 2024 22:09:35 GMT -5
I’d offer 8 for $80 million I don’t think he accepts that but he is definitely not accepting $64 million I've been heavily on the side of locking up Casas because I think he's going to be a big producer. I thought that even during his rough first half of '23. My first reaction to the 8 years/$80M idea was "Yeah, that sounds about right." But the more I mull this over the more I think it's going to be extremely difficult to get a deal that works for both sides. Here's why: Casas just turned 24 in January and needs to play five more seasons to be eligible for FA. An 8-year deal that starts with 2024 would make him a FA at age 32. By then, he's probably going to be even more of a one-dimensional player than he is now, probably a DH in fact. Even if he's still serviceable at 1B for a year or two beyond that, he'll be at the extreme wrong end of the defensive spectrum. He'd have to be a huge offensive stud to get a big, long-term deal at that point. So, I think his rep probbly tells him, "Just mash at Fenway for five years. You'll make enough money in your arb years to be set for life. Then you can hit FA at 29 and get a decent contract."
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Mar 5, 2024 18:46:43 GMT -5
This is also a huge hit for the BP if it puts both Houck and Whitlock in the rotation. It makes it harder to trade Jansen and/or Martin, even if neither is a multiple-innings guy.
BB is full of surprises and maybe we'll get career guys out of a few guys up and down the roster. But man, this season has the potential to turn ugly very early.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Mar 4, 2024 20:59:35 GMT -5
I have to think that Monty and Snell are becoming less attractive options to teams each day. If Montgomery signed with the Red Sox tomorrow, you can figure he'd need a couple of days to get to camp. That gets us to March 7. The last pre-season game is March 26 in Texas and the opener is March 28 in Seattle.
He'd be looking at some XST time and would be at a disadvantage once he was finally game ready.
Boras has to be feeling some heat, I think.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Mar 3, 2024 20:12:41 GMT -5
He wasn't a Boston-based sports writer but Chris Mortensen of ESPN, who died today, asserted himself into a major local sports story with results that were bad for the Patriots, the NFL, ESPN and Mortensen's own legacy.
You'll recall that he put up the inaccurate tweet about the synthetic, totally fabricated DFG controvery and then refused to take it down even after it was clear it was wrong.
My view is that it's not a good thing when someone passes (except, of course, for the true monsters of the world) but also that it's important not to sanitize a person's life when he/she does die. In Mortensen's csae, that requires recognizing that his conduct was dishonest and deplorable.
Unlike Tomase, Mortensen did not have the guts to admit a mistake. It was his equivalent of claiming he misinterpreted the rules - rules that everyone else understood. Acceptance of responsibility is important. Mortensen declined to do that.
Still, RIP.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Mar 2, 2024 12:24:08 GMT -5
Listened to Jim Bowden's XM MLB radio rant for 15 minutes on the Red Sox since they were highlighted yesterday on their spring training highlight. Here's the highlights, according to Bowden (I'm paraphrasing of course)- -Boston's farm system is overrated. -Jared Duran doesn't have enough depth perception (I don't know what that means, maybe someone else can translate) -Giolito is a very bad baseball pitcher, but a good baker in a kitchen. -Didn't like Nick Pivetta walking 50 batters in 142 innings last year. Scoffed at that idea, in fact. -Called the Sox a bad run organization from top to bottom. -He liked Bryan Bello 2 years ago, but saw a completely lesser pitcher last year. Wondering what happened to him? Don't shoot the messenger. Some of that is subjective, meaning it's legitimate for an analyst to comment on. I'd put the comment about the farm system and the competence of the organization in that category. I think the comment about the organization refers to Bloom and his team. I don't think he's already decided CB2 is a lousy POBBO. I'm guessing his comment about Duran's depth perception refers to his ability to read the depth of flyballs. I've never heard that described as the OF's depth perception. Giolito has had two bad years in a row, though we can always cherry pick his first half of last year and place some hope on that. It's what I'm doing. I didn't know he was a baker too and couldn't care less. The Pivetta comment is weird. His BB% was 8.5, just about average. His k% was 31.2, or better than average. Unless he sees a decline in Bello's stuff that nobody else has picked up on, I have no idea what Bowden is talking about there.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Feb 29, 2024 21:53:26 GMT -5
for violating not one, not two, but three policies, To clarify, this is not correct. He violated a single policy called the Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault, and Child Abuse Policy. My bad and I'm glad you pointed it out. But I'll stand by my larger point, which is that his conduct was deemed egregious enough to merit a harsh penalty. Given that, I can't argue with the posters who said they'd rather not have him on the RS.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Feb 29, 2024 20:09:58 GMT -5
The responsible thing to do is to let the legal process play out before rushing to judgement. That said, the situation sounds bad for sure. The legal process really has nothing to do with it. Employees get fired or suspended all the time without a conviction. In most states, certain charges get dropped for first-time offenders if the person fulfills certain conditions, but the employer can still take action. Innocent until proven guilty is a sacred legal standard that does and should apply in a courtroom. It's not binding on an employer. A dude who gets into a physical fight at work, for instance, is probably going to get s-canned. The employer doesn't have to report it to the cops and wait for a court disposition before walking the guy to the door.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Feb 29, 2024 20:00:36 GMT -5
We all tend to view players as larger than life when the reality is issues outside of the sport will occasionally surface. I don't know which of DV, sexual assault, or child abuse is involved, but whichever one it is, it is an egregious thing. Baseball rightfully acted accordingly. There is no way I can view his suspension as harsh. I will only condemn whatever he did, and hope that as soon as the Sox are allowed to do so, they end the relationship. How can you determine any of this without knowing a single detail? This is a strange take. I hope you never get accepted as a juror. It sounds like it was probably pretty bad, but in the absence of any detail whatsoever, I cannot judge. But we do know some things. He was suspended for a year (a long and valuable period of time for a young guy trying to develop into a major leaguer) for violating not one, not two, but three policies, none of which are jaywalking or a parking violation. DV, sexual assault and child abuse are major trespasses against other human beings. And as far as I can tell, he and his reps haven't issued any public statements questioning the findings or the suspension. The fact is that unless a crime is caught on video we rarely know what happened, even when there's a jury verdict or a guilty plea. Guilty people sometimes walk and innocent sometimes get locked up. Race, a defendants's ability to buy big-time lawyers, a defendant's celebrity and/or political background, flawed judges and juries, inept prosecutors or defense lawyers, corrupt cops, and many other factors affect outcomes. Based on what we do know, it's entirely reasonable for people to not want the kid on their BB team. It wouldn't be reasonable for someone to be calling for a massive prison sentence at this point. That's where the details are important. For instance, sexual assault can be accidentally on purpose stumbling into another person while drunk and acting in a way that constitutes a low degree of sexual assault. It could also be an outright, violent rape.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Feb 28, 2024 21:11:39 GMT -5
Man, we try to find a bright side when these horrific things happen. In this case, we know that Stacy's heart was broken and she had to have suffered immense physical and emotional pain from her own illness. All that hell is over for her now.
Still, this is jarring news. Let's hope their kids grow closer and stronger from all of this and go on to inspire others.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Feb 28, 2024 18:44:39 GMT -5
I can't imagine he plays BB again. Depending on the particulars, he's probably looking at prison time.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Feb 21, 2024 20:45:56 GMT -5
Its fine if you think the things you laid out won't happen but Giolito at a 3.8 ERA (pre-trade last year), Bello taking a leap to something like luzardo (3.6 ERA?), 2nd half Pivetta (3.26 ERA as a starter), and Kutter just matching last year at a 4.04 gives you a sub 4 rotation ERA even with Houck's 5.01 ERA 2023 plugged in as the 5th starter. That would slot them in somewhere between the 4th (SEA 4.89) and 7th (TEX 4.96) best rotations last year. Fangraphs projections appear to have the Red Sox with the 5th most runs scored without optimism. I don't see how the cap on that team as described is 90 wins. It might not be likely but if it came together like that they're essentially last years Rays (4th in runs scored 5th in runs against) with 99 wins. In general I think people could stand to use a little more of their imagination in projecting best-case scenarios. It's okay, you can still hate the owners and dislike this offseason while acknowledging there's some chance this team could be very good! Like, the Orioles outperformed their preseason fangraphs projection last season by 25 wins. It happens.
Lol, I did acknowledge there's some chance this team could be very good. I mean I raised the possibility that they could win 90 games. In today's MLB, that can easily get you into the PS. It would be a nice accomplishment coming off two last-place finishes and a disappointing off-season. Should I have said 95? 100? I don't hate the owners. I think JWH has lost some of his passion and I certainly have my frustrations with the group in general. But the FFFE - all four of them. I like CB2 and want to see how things come together under him starting in 2025 when a bunch of young, cost-controlled talent starts showing up in the home whites (or in the ugly blue and yellow, as the case may be on some days).
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Feb 21, 2024 20:34:58 GMT -5
Best scenario: I see an absolute ceiling of 90 wins. That would require Giolito to be an innings eater and effective at run suppression; Bello taking a leap; Kutter and Pivetta best their best selves throughout the season. We'd need the defense to magically fix itself. (I say magically because on any given day, they're going to have several bad defenders on the field, even with Yoshi at DH.) On offense, Devers and Casas would have to crush, Story would have to contribute something and two of O'Neill, Abreu and Grissom would have to be reasonably productive. Worst scenario: The Red Sox are giving us the phony tease of a being a PS team at the deadline and CB2 fails to move assets for whatever he can get for them. The team ends up around .500, out of the PS, with a middling draft pick position for 2025, and no new assets. Or put another way, if the Red Sox have an uphill fight to make the PS at the trade deadline despite good years from KJ and Chris Martin and those two guys are still on the team at the end of the season, we're in the worst-case scenario. Its fine if you think the things you laid out won't happen but Giolito at a 3.8 ERA (pre-trade last year), Bello taking a leap to something like luzardo (3.6 ERA?), 2nd half Pivetta (3.26 ERA as a starter), and Kutter just matching last year at a 4.04 gives you a sub 4 rotation ERA even with Houck's 5.01 ERA 2023 plugged in as the 5th starter. That would slot them in somewhere between the 4th (SEA 4.89) and 7th (TEX 4.96) best rotations last year. Fangraphs projections appear to have the Red Sox with the 5th most runs scored without optimism. I don't see how the cap on that team as described is 90 wins. It might not be likely but if it came together like that they're essentially last years Rays (4th in runs scored 5th in runs against) with 99 wins.I don't think we disagree by much. I acknowledge it's not likely to come together like I laid out - which is why I put the ceiling at 90 wins. And you acknowledge (bolded) it's not likely to come togethger like you laid out. I certainly don't think it's going to come together in a way that gets them to 99 wins. The odds against that are astronomical - just as the odds against 100 L's are huge.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Feb 21, 2024 16:35:41 GMT -5
Best scenario: I see an absolute ceiling of 90 wins. That would require Giolito to be an innings eater and effective at run suppression; Bello taking a leap; Kutter and Pivetta to be their best selves throughout the season. We'd need the defense to magically fix itself. (I say magically because on any given day, they're going to have several bad defenders on the field, even with Yoshi at DH.)
On offense, Devers and Casas would have to crush, Story would have to contribute something and two of O'Neill, Abreu and Grissom would have to be reasonably productive.
Worst scenario: The Red Sox are giving us the phony tease of a being a PS team at the deadline and CB2 fails to move assets for whatever he can get for them. The team ends up around .500, out of the PS, with a middling draft pick position for 2025, and no new assets.
Or put another way, if the Red Sox have an uphill fight to make the PS at the trade deadline despite good years from KJ and Chris Martin and those two guys are still on the team at the end of the season, we're in the worst-case scenario.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Feb 5, 2024 16:12:51 GMT -5
On the one hand, a lot of the quotes here that are critical of the team's leadership are sensible. On the other hand, it's kind of wild how far the sentiment has swung based on all of two mediocre and kind of hard-luck seasons.
I think it's that the Mookie trade really scarred Red Sox Nation. Everything since then has been seen in a far more negative light. Assuming it were possible to do so, they probably should have just given him his $400 million, even if it wouldn't have been the best thing for the team's long-term health.
Maybe I have a very niche view of this because I have never killed the Red Sox/Bloom for the MB trade but I'm still turned off by the FO's performance since the end of the 2021 ALCS. Look back at the stories detailing the offers big-spending D-Dom made to Mookie and the counter offers from Mookie's camp. The Red Sox did not cheap out. Also take into consideration Mookies comments, which came off like someone looking to max out on dollars. As far as the results of the trade, we're not having this conversation if Jeter Downs had developed into a nice, low-cost 3.5 WAR 2B. But he didn't and that's the risk with prospects. Bloom had little leverage in making that trade because only one team was bidding. My unhappiness is with the incoherence of so many other moves - the X low-balling, the Story contract, the Yoshi contract, JBJ's return, the trade deadlines, not finding a way to keep Eo, etc. Think where we'd be with Eo and Kodai Senga, who's another guy a lot of us found interesting and who signed a reasonable contract elsewhere. I'll add that I don't look at the last two years as hard luck. The rosters were poorly constructed. Christian Arroyo in RF, for instance. KKH at SS. JBJ, one of the worst players in the sport in '21, brought back to start in RF in '22. Corey Kluber, OD SP in '23.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Feb 5, 2024 16:03:08 GMT -5
On the one hand, a lot of the quotes here that are critical of the team's leadership are sensible. On the other hand, it's kind of wild how far the sentiment has swung based on all of two mediocre and kind of hard-luck seasons.
I think it's that the Mookie trade really scarred Red Sox Nation. Everything since then has been seen in a far more negative light. Assuming it were possible to do so, they probably should have just given him his $400 million, even if it wouldn't have been the best thing for the team's long-term health.
Maybe I have a very niche view of this because I have never killed the Red Sox/Bloom for the MB trade but I'm still turned off by the FO's performance since the end of the 2021 ALCS. Look back at the stories detailing the offers big-spending D-Dom made to Mookie and the counter offers from Mookie's camp. The Red Sox did not cheap out. Also take into consideration Mookie's comments, which came off like someone looking to max out on dollars. As far as the results of the trade, we're not having this conversation if Jeter Downs had developed into a nice, low-cost 3.5 WAR 2B. But he didn't and that's the risk with prospects. Bloom had little leverage in making that trade because only one team was bidding. My unhappiness is with the incoherence of so many other moves - the X low-balling, the Story contract, the Yoshi contract, JBJ's return, the trade deadlines, not finding a way to keep Eo, etc. Think where we'd be with Eo and Kodai Senga, who's another guy a lot of us found interesting and who signed a reasonable contract elsewhere.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Feb 3, 2024 10:45:43 GMT -5
Wait..so ownership was preoccupied and not just focused on projected WAR for the 2026 core? I look at it this way. This is the best ownership group the Sox ever had. Period. You look back and before Tom Yawkey there wasnt a lot of continuity. They won titles but ownershio changed often in those early days. They won twice under Joe Lannin but he wound up selling to Harry Frazee, who did everything he could to make sure the Sox had the best team they could have in 1918. The Sox won the Series and eventually he got tired of Babe Ruth's demands for money, sold him, had originally intended to replace him with quality players, but had become enemies with AL President Ban Johnson by then as he was considered an outsider and was on his own island with Johnson's other enemies, the Yankees, who had cash, were rising, and wanted to win, and a ruined White Sox team. Frazee got frustrated, and gave up, as the Sox at that point, were hardly his passion, given that the theater was his first love and he wrecked the club and gave the Yankees the beginning of their dynasty. I would say by early 1919 Frazee was well regarded in Boston. Within a few years he was a pariah. He sold the club finally to Bob Quinn who had a backer with money, but that backer died and Quinn was left with a decimated team and no money and no hope. Eventually Tom Yawkey buys the team and pours a ton of money into it getting guys like Foxx, Grove, and Ferrell, but over time he starts to lose interest and sinks deeper into an alcoholic fog by time the 50s roll around. No wonder the requirement to be his GM was to be his drinking buddy. Too bad racial tolerance wasn't a requirement. By the 60s Yawkey has been sick and has started to dry out. He has long neglected the club and eventually left it to the one competent man he had left to run it, Dick O'Connell, which had been a departure from his drinking buddies. The Sox are a mess. Yawkey is finally sober and his main desire is to get a new ballpark or move the team, perhaps to Milwaukee to replace the Braves who had just relocated to Atlanta. Then thanks to the competence of O'Connell, farm director Neil Mahoney, and Dick Williams, the miracle of 1967 happens and suddenly the long lost passion Yawkey had for the Sox has revived, which rankled Dick Williams who saw Yawkey as a Johnny come lately. And that friction eventually led to his firing. Yawkey spends the last years of his life passionate about the Sox, but a simmering ownership power play eventually erupts 7 years after his death on Tony C night, a tribute to Conigliaro who had suffered a stroke and was in a coma. The classless LeRoux vs Sullivan and Mrs. Yawkey fight breaks out, Yawkey eventually wins but realizes Sullivan's shortcomings and replaces him in her circle of trust with a reluctant John Harrington who upon her death baby sits the Sox for a decade leaving them in limbo until he finds a real owner. Enter Henry and Werner who do everything to win over a skeptical fanbase who preferred local owners because they want somebody who loves the Sox as much as they do and doesnt just see them as a business. Henry intends to hire Billy Beane and modernize the Sox on hopes of winning and is fortunate when Beane accepts and then changes his mind and Theo Epstein is waiting in the wings and just like that, competent ownership, a competent young man making the moves, money being poured into the team and the Sox are finally a winner. Drama ensues as Theo sees things in the levels above him that rankle him. He leaves but is persuaded to come back, they win again but eventually Theo sees more that he doesnt like, and he's bound for Chicago. But Henry is still invested in his team and they win a surprise championship, rebuild with a new core, pour more money into the team and the greatest Sox team of all time wins the series with ease. Then Henry sees an expensive Sox team that plays hung over in 2019 and notices Tampa for a fraction of the cost has become better so he hires Bloom to run things, trading Mookie a priority. Somewhere along the way Henry becomes more preoccupied with his growing empire and the Sox are just another entity to him and acquisitions become more of a focal point to him. The Sox slide into mediocrity with the exception of one fun surprise season, money stops being poured into the team, there's a malaise around the team and fan base and even some wishes he'd sell if he's lost interest. My long history lesson shows that the Sox have had owners who are engaged with the Sox, but can lose interest the way a cat can when they have a new toy and get tired of it and eventually neglect it. I hear the, "they won four titles" argument as evidence that you're foolish if you want them to sell. I don't know about that. Imagine being an Oakland A's fan in 1978. The A's are in a downward spiral because Charlie Finley doesn't want to invest in his team and doesn't like how there is a market and that it's crazy in his view. Yeah, but the A's won 3 straight championships from 72 - 74, his backers would say. As an A's fan in 1978 would you want him to sell? I would. Past glory isn't always an indicator of an ownership's current level of commitment to the team. As history shows, ownership can be mercurial. I had started to lean in the perhaps they should sell category, although I wasn't firmly planted into that view as of yet. The hiring of Theo gives me hope that even if Henry really isn't in to the Sox as he was once at least he has somebody very competent keeping an eye on them which is the next best thing so that assuages a lot of my concerns for the time being. That's how important I think this hire is. The knowledge of Red Sox history behind this post and the ability to articulate that knowledge in solid writing are amazing.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jan 30, 2024 15:41:41 GMT -5
15.
Not 15 wins. But pick 15 in the 2025 draft with 80 wins in 2024 - assuming no significant additions between now and the start of the season.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jan 30, 2024 15:38:21 GMT -5
There are probably reasons to question a Duvall return, but taking playing time away from Rafaela isn't one of them. The kid isn't ready and would get crushed by ML P. He posted a .239 xwOBA with 31.5 K% and 4.5 BB% during his time with the Red Sox. He accumulated -2.7 offensive FG WAR in just 89 PAs. His defense in CF might give him a potential floor of a 2 WAR player if he can improve his plate approach. But I'd like to see him get more AAA PAs and show up ready to start in 2025. That’s isn’t -2.7 oWAR, that’s an aggregating offensive stat but it isn’t WAR. Yes he looked overmatched in his first 89 PAs, but that doesn’t mean we know that will be the case this year. Many, many players have looked worse in their cup of coffees and still broken out the following year. We don’t know how much they plan on playing Rafaela yet, but it’s not a given that he will start the year in AAA let alone play the entire season there like you’re suggesting. Good catch on the WAR. B-Ref had him as -.1 - far different than -2.7. Either way, he's more than likely a black hole in the lineup. I'd hate to see him accuring service time when he would almost certainly benefit from more AAA time.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jan 30, 2024 15:21:58 GMT -5
Duvall’s xwOBA was frighteningly bad last year despite the success with actual results. I wouldn’t hate adding him, but I’d prefer to add Soler. Duvall would eat into Rafaela and Abreu’s PT so if they think those 2 are ready, I’d much rather allocate reps to their development and let the chips fall where they may this year. The real dream for me is Abreu being a legit ~120 wRC+ bat. That would do wonders for the team this year and long term. I’m not saying it’s likely, but they could use another home grown power hitter There are probably reasons to question a Duvall return, but taking playing time away from Rafaela isn't one of them. The kid isn't ready and would get crushed by ML P. He posted a .239 xwOBA with 31.5 K% and 4.5 BB% during his time with the Red Sox. He accumulated -2.7 offensive FG WAR in just 89 PAs. His defense in CF might give him a potential floor of a 2 WAR player if he can improve his plate approach. But I'd like to see him get more AAA PAs and show up ready to start in 2025.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jan 30, 2024 9:25:47 GMT -5
I remember his "Don't let us win one or they're in trouble" mantra against Cleveland which helped set the attitude for future post season series. Of course at the time winning even one seemed impossible as the Sox had lost 18 of 19 postseason games heading into Game 3 of the 1999 ALDS, a game where Lou Merloni had to start in place of an injured Nomar, a barely functional Ramon Martinez was starting and his kid brother was injured and probably wasnt going to pitch again. This had been a losing streak that had started with the Sox 1 strike from ultimate victory in 1986. The only win they even had was Game 1 1998 ALDS before losing the next 3 games to be eliminated and then losing the first 2 in 1999 ALDS. Improbably the Sox won 3 in a row to knock out 1000 run Cleveland before losing in 5 to NY, but the imprint was there for 2003, 2004, 2007, and even 2008. Then in 2001 Jimy was fired by Duquette after managing a team that could be toxic to a record of 59-42. Duquette underestimated William's. Joe Kerrigan took over and they completely went off the rails. I guess Duquette who incredibly enough took the mercurial Carl Everett's side in his dispute with William's never forgave Williams for doing the right thing years earlier starting Steve Avery so that his contract would kick in an extra year. RIP Jimy Wow! I had forgotten that it was that bad. Losing 18 out of 19, even against playoff-level competition, is hard to do. I didn't think Jimy was a great manager. I'd put him in the middle of the pack of RS managers in the 1967 and post-'67 era. (Better than Zimmer, McNamara, Hobson and Kerrigan; worse than Francona, Williams, Kennedy, Kasko and Walpole Joe.) But I gave him a lot of credit for the way he conducted himself when Jurassic Carl was lobbing personal insults his way in the press. I recall a pre-game interview in which Jimy was asked about Crazy Carl buying post-game spreads for the Pawtucket players during a rehab. Jimy could have deflected the question or said it's a standard thing for MLers to do. But he heaped praise on Crazy Carl for doing it. He was a good man.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jan 23, 2024 19:42:54 GMT -5
Two surprises for me.
Based on the tracker, I thought Billy Wagner had way more than a 50-50 chance and was surprised when the HOF guy said he was done after announcing the three who did make it. Those who didn't disclose their ballots in advance must have been unimpressed by his candidacy because he seemed to have a cushion.
I was surprised when the HOF guy was listing Beltre's accomplishments and said he made four AS teams. I mean the guy was a beast with his 3,000/400 and great glove. I would have thought he made a lot more AS teams than that.
But all in all, it was an interesting election.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jan 23, 2024 15:19:46 GMT -5
If they're not willing to spend up to the LTT in 2024 to support a potentially competitive team, which breaks from the precedent they've established over the past two decades, I think that should shift us somewhat toward the expectation that when Mayer/Anthony/Teel do arrive, all that low-cost talent will be used as an excuse not to spend big in free agency rather than a reason to do so. That's my expectation at this point and I can see the logic in it. Thing is, though, how much salary relief are those guys actually going to provide. C is already an extreme low-cost position for the Red Sox, so Teel won't save you much there. Ditto for OF except for Yoshi (Abreu, Duran, RobRef; even Dugo and Duvall were relatively inexpensive last year). So, if Anthony and Little Raffy are starters in 2025, what big salaries are you shedding? Yoshi would be the only one and that probably requires eating some money to move him. MI is a similar situation. 2B is already a low-cost position with Grissom. Opening up SS for MM probably means eating money to move Story. The best way to really make an impact on payroll would be to have a couple of quality starters in the pipeline. I'm talking about guys better than Wikleman and Perales are likely to be.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jan 16, 2024 15:53:58 GMT -5
I feel the comments very much make me believe that Bloom was truly (and rightfully) fired for either his lack of direction or inaction when it came to not selling known short term assets the last two deadlines If we are building for 2025, then build for it. Don’t straddle the line. If we are meh again Pivetta, Jansen, Martin, O’Neil, Yoshida, and maybe even Giolito should all be dangled and mostly sold at the deadline If this isn’t a team to add to, then you sell short term assets that won’t be apart of the team you would want to add to anyhow I think the outcomes of the two deadlines are a main reason he got canned. I have thought so all along. Without going into whether he handled the deadlines well or lousy, let's look at it from JHW's standpoint. I think we all assume they had conversations before each deadline with Bloom laying out what he planned to do. JWH, who like all CEOs has a results-bsaed outlook, had to be critical that neither team made the PS and that Bloom left assets on the table both years (though I'm high on Abreu and think we'll apreciate that acquisition). But I disagree with you on Pivetta. He should be extended, not dangled!
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jan 13, 2024 18:40:26 GMT -5
Step 1: get rid of our third best hitter by both Steamer and Zips projections Step 2: ? ? ?
Step 3: Profit!
But he was our 8th best position player by B-Ref WAR and tied for 7th in FG WAR. On FG, Wilyer Abreu accumulated the same .6 but did it in 85 PAs. I know Yoshi wore down in the his first year of ML BB and he's supposed to be getting into better shape this winter, but he needs to improve a lot and to sustain that improvement for that contract to not be a dud. Ditto for Story.
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